lca and lcsa: how can they contribute to the global ... · sdgs sustainability pillars, sdgs,...

LCA and LCSA: how can they contribute to the global Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs)?

Jeroen Guinée | 3rd International Conference Series on Life Cycle Assessment (ICSoLCA) on “LCA as a metric to achieve SDGs”, The National Library of Republic Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, 24-25 October 2018

Content•SDGs

•LCA in a nutshell◦ Philosophy behind LCA (life cycle thinking; LCT)

•LCA: the method◦ Challenges for developing countries

•LCSA: what is it?◦ Challenges for developing countries

•How can LCA/LCSA contribute to the SDGs?

•Conclusions

Content

The sustainable development goals (SDGs)

Source: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

SDGs

SDGs, targets and indicators

• Each SDG has several targets; each target may have 1 or more indicators; indicators may still lack a method and/or data

• For example, Goals 11-15:

Tier 1 (mature indicator) : Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, and data are regularly produced […]. Tier 2 (no data): Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, but data are not regularly produced […]. Tier 3 (no method): No internationally established methodology or standards are yet available for the indicator, but methodology/standards are being (or will be) developed or tested.

Targets Indicators Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable 10 15 7 8 5Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 11 13 3 10 9Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 5 8 2 6 5Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

10 10 3 7 5

Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

12 14 9 5 1

SDGs

Sustainability pillars, SDGs, targets & indicators

Source: “Engaging with local communities for the SDGs”, by Subandi Ardjoko, Deputy Minister for Human and Society Development and Cultural Affairs, 10th Global RCE Conference, Jogyakarta, Indonesia, 22 November 2016. https://www.slideshare.net/HannaatUNU/engaging-with-local-communities-for-the-sdgs-subandi-sardjoko

SDGs

SDGs

Indicators for SCP (Goal 12)Target Indicator

12.1 Implement the 10-Year Framework of Programmes on SCP Patterns […] 12.1.1 Number of countries with (SCP) national action plans or SCP mainstreamed […]

12.2 By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources

12.2.1 Material footprint, material footprint per capita, and material footprint per GDP

12.2.2 Domestic material consumption (DMC), DMC per capita, and DMC per GDP

12.3 By 2030, halve per capita global food waste at retail and consumer levels […] 12.3.1 Global food loss index

12.4 By 2020, achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all wastes

throughout their life cycle […]

12.4.1 Number of parties […] that meet their commitments […] in transmitting information

[…]

12.4.2 Hazardous waste generated per capita and proportion of hazardous waste treated, by

type of treatment

12.5 By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and

reuse

12.5.1 National recycling rate, tons of material recycled

12.6 Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable

practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle

12.6.1 Number of companies publishing sustainability reports

12.7 Promote public procurement practices that are sustainable, in accordance with national

policies and priorities

12.7.1 Number of countries implementing sustainable public procurement policies and action

plans

12.8 By 2030, ensure that people everywhere have the relevant information […] 12.8.1 Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) education for sustainable

development (including climate change education) are mainstreamed in (a) national

education policies; (b) curricula; (c) teacher education; and (d) student assessment

12.a Support developing countries to strengthen their scientific and technological capacity to […]

SCP

12.a.1 Amount of support to developing countries on research and development […]

12.b Develop and implement tools to monitor sustainable development impacts for sustainable

tourism […]

12.b.1 Number of sustainable tourism strategies or policies and implemented action plans

with agreed monitoring and evaluation tools

12.c Rationalize inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption […] 12.c.1 Amount of fossil-fuel subsidies per unit of GDP […]

12.3 has one of the very few real targets

Summary conclusions

• “Sustainability” undefined, and thus difficult to monitor if we go in right direction

• Indicator summary for SDG 12:◦ number of countries/parties/companies/strategies/policies

◦ amount of subsidies/support

◦ extent to which …

◦ material footprint/DMC

◦ global food loss index/national recycling rate

◦ waste generated per capita

• MFA in; LCA out

• Indicators mostly on the level of “efforts”, “money”, … not in terms of “environmental performance”

• Many indicators still lack data and methods

SDGs

Life cycle assessment (LCA) in a nutshell

• Complete picture to map and avoid potential problem shifting

◦ whole life-cycle

◦ All burdens and impacts

• Compilation and evaluation of the inputs, outputs and the potential environmental impacts of a product system throughout its life cycle (ISO, 2006)

Climate change Str. ozone depl. Acidification

Photochemical ozone formation

Human toxicity

Ecotoxicity

Resource depletion Water scarcity

LCA in a nutshell

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)• Science, not ideology

◦ is an electric car indeed better ?

◦ is recycling always a good idea ?

• Systems analysis◦ technosphere (‘economy’)

◦ nature (‘natural environment’)

• Complete picture: life cycle & all impacts focusing on◦ mapping and avoiding problem shifting (trade-offs), and

◦ therefore an integral analysis

LCA : the method

These key features of LCA should not be impaired!!

Quantitatively mapping trade-offs to:

•Other life cycle phases (zero emission car)

•Other substances (CFC-free fridge)

•Other countries (export of waste)

•Other environmental impacts (unleaded petrol)

• The future (nuclear power)

• ...

LCA : the method

LCA: the method

- Product development and improvement

- Strategic planning

- Public policy making

- Marketing

- Other

Goal and scope definition

Inventory analysis

Impact assessment

Interpretation

Direct applications:

Life cycle assessment framework

LCA : the method

Functional unit Goal and scope definition

•What are you comparing ? Not the product, but rather its function/service:

◦ not lamps, but hours of light

◦ not a can of paint, or litres of paint, but square meters of painted wall …..and lifetime

◦ etc.

• Functional unit: a quantified unit supplied by a product system, used as a basis of comparison in an LCA

◦ 1000 hours of light with an intensity of 1250 lumen of white light

◦ 100 km transport of two adults

◦ 1000 liter packing of milk, in units between 1 and 2 liter

◦ watching 55 inch screen color TV for 1 hour

LCA : the method

Flow chart inventory analysis

Source: Ana Paulina Gual Rojas, 2016

LCA : the method

Collecting data for unit processes inventory analysis

goods

services

materials

energy

waste* (for treatment)

goods

services

materials

energy

waste (for treatment)

environmental

interventions

economic

flows

chemicals to the air

chemicals to water

chemicals to the soil

radionuclides

sound

waste heat

casualties

abiotic resources

biotic resources

land occupation

products products * economic

flows

environmental

interventions

UNIT PROCESS /

PRODUCT SYSTEM

* the functional flows of the process

OUTPUTSINPUTS

land transformation

etc.

LCA : the method

Multifunctional processes: how to allocate? inventory analysis

Fish processing

Tilapia production

1000 kg live tilapia

Fish heads and bones:470 kg

635 RMB2 500 MJ

Deep skinned fillets:370 kg

7 074 RMB2 430 MJ

Fish bellies:45 kg

315 RMB295 MJ

Allocation of environmental burdens to fish bellies:

by weight: 5%by economic value: 4%

by energy: 6%

Allocation of environmental burdens to fillets:by weight: 42%

by economic value: 88%by energy: 46%

Price (economic value in Chinese currency Yuan/RMB)):Fillets: 19 120 RMB tonne-1

Fish heads and bones: 1300-1400 RMB tonne-1

Fish bellies: 6000-8000 RMB tonne-1

Allocation of environmental burdens to fishmeal:

by weight: 53%by economic value: 8%

by energy: 48%

© Patrik Henriksson

LCA : the method

Example of inventory results: inventory tableElementary flows Product 1 Product 2 Unit

NMVOC, non-methane volatile organic compounds, unspecified origin[air_high population density] 1.40E-06 4.57E-07 kg

Carbon dioxide, fossil[air_low population density] 0.283 0.0496 kg

Ammonia[air_high population density] 7.82E-07 2.68E-07 kg

Nitrogen oxides[air_high population density] 0.000376 6.24E-05 kg

Particulates, < 2.5 um[air_high population density] 3.87E-05 6.88E-06 kg

Particulates, > 10 um[air_high population density] 5.52E-07 1.04E-06 kg

Particulates, > 2.5 um, and < 10um[air_high population density] 6.87E-07 1.02E-06 kg

Zinc, ion[water_river] 4.69E-08 4.57E-08 kg

Lead[water_river] 3.59E-08 2.98E-07 kg

Nickel, ion[water_river] 9.84E-09 5.19E-09 kg

Mercury[water_river] 4.20E-10 4.22E-11 kg

Copper, ion[water_river] 5.97E-09 4.79E-09 kg

Chromium, ion[water_river] 7.10E-09 1.77E-08 kg

Cadmium, ion[water_river] 7.68E-10 1.56E-09 kg

Arsenic, ion[water_river] 3.15E-08 1.47E-08 kg

Phosphate[water_river] 1.83E-08 1.48E-08 kg

Ammonium, ion[water_river] 3.86E-07 2.18E-06 kg

Nitrate[water_river] 6.82E-06 1.02E-06 kg

Nitrate[air_high population density] 1.24E-09 3.42E-10 kg

Calcite, in ground[resource_in ground] -0.00423 -0.00134 kg

Sylvite, 25 % in sylvinite, in ground[resource_in ground] -9.76E-08 -2.53E-08 kg

Water, cooling, unspecified natural origin[resource_in water] -0.0122 -0.00265 m3

Water, river[resource_in water] -0.00238 -0.00556 m3

Sodium, ion[water_river] 0.000148 0.000106 kg

Potassium, ion[water_river] 5.21E-06 1.58E-06 kg

Chloride[water_river] 0.000545 0.000137 kg

Calcium, ion[water_river] 7.74E-05 1.97E-05 kg

Magnesium[water_river] 1.49E-05 3.25E-06 kg

Sulfur[water_river] 1.30E-07 4.61E-08 kg

Hydrogen chloride[air_high population density] 3.85E-07 1.68E-07 kg

Hydrogen fluoride[air_high population density] 2.03E-08 9.09E-09 kg

LCA : the method

From inventory analysis -> impact assessment

• Inventory analysis:◦ emission of CO2, SO2, NOx, Hg, ...

◦ extraction of iron-ore, crude oil, fish, ...

• Impact assessment:◦ Impact categories:

• midpoint: Global warming, Acidification, Eutrophication, Aquatic ecotoxicity, Abiotic depletion, etc.

• endpoint: damage to human health, damage to ecosystems, damage to resource availability, …

◦ Characterization results: one score for global warming, one for acidification, etc.

◦ Normalization: relating characterization results to reference information (e.g., world 2015) in order to better understand the relative significance of the characterization results

◦ Weighting: further aggregation of characterization/normalization results to single index: footprint, ...

LCA : the method

Calculation of characterization results•Global Warming:

◦ Global Warming Potential (GWP): measure for Global Warming in terms of radiative forcing for 1 kg emission

• Example:

◦ 5 kg CO2 (GWP = 1)

◦ +

◦ 3 kg CH4 (GWP = 28; IPCC 2007)

◦ =

◦ 1 x 5 + 28 x 3 kg CO2-equivalent (= 89 kg CO2–equivalent)

LCA : the method

Example of characterization resultsCML 2001 baseline methods

PEF recommended methods

Impact category Product 1 Product 2 Unit

CML 2001 baseline, eutrophication 9.59E-04 1.68E-04 kg PO4-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, depletion of abiotic resources 5.26E-03 6.17E-04 kg antimony-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, acidification 9.44E-04 5.21E-04 kg SO2-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, photochemical oxidation 4.02E-05 1.98E-05 kg ethylene-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, climate change 6.77E-01 9.23E-02 kg CO2-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, terrestrial ecotoxicity 5.14E-04 5.29E-04 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity 1.40E-01 3.89E-02 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, stratospheric ozone depletion 2.62E-08 4.72E-09 kg CFC-11-Eq

CML 2001 baseline, human toxicity 1.71E-01 1.22E-01 kg 1,4-DCB-Eq

Impact category Product 1 Product 2 Unit

climate change//GWP 100a 6.77E-01 9.22E-02 kg CO2-Eq

ecosystem quality//freshwater and terrestrial acidification 1.22E-03 6.20E-04 mol H+-Eq

ecosystem quality//freshwater ecotoxicity 1.94E+00 6.52E-01 CTUh.m3.yr

ecosystem quality//freshwater eutrophication 2.66E-04 4.20E-05 kg P-Eq

ecosystem quality//ionising radiation 2.74E-07 3.85E-06 mol N-Eq

ecosystem quality//marine eutrophication 3.95E-04 1.06E-04 kg N-Eq

ecosystem quality//terrestrial eutrophication 3.88E-03 1.06E-03 mol N-Eq

human health//carcinogenic effects 2.26E-08 6.52E-09 CTUh

human health//ionising radiation 1.06E-01 1.11E+00 mol N-Eq

human health//non-carcinogenic effects 7.68E-08 4.54E-08 CTUh

human health//ozone layer depletion 2.62E-08 4.72E-09 kg CFC-11-Eq

human health//photochemical ozone creation 9.69E-04 2.87E-04 kg ethylene-Eq

human health//respiratory effects, inorganics 1.72E-04 6.50E-05 kg PM2.5-Eq

resources//land use 3.18E-01 8.19E-02 kg Soil Organic Carbon

resources//mineral, fossils and renewables 8.16E-07 4.26E-06 kg Sb-Eq

LCA : the method

Interpretation

• Conclusions, recommendations, analyses, all related to goal and scope of the research◦ detailed analysis of results: where are the hot spots ?

• contribution analysis

◦ uncertainty analysis etc.

LCA : the method

General limitations and challenges of LCAs

•Resource intensive (both human and monetary resources)

•Data intensive

◦ garbage in= garbage out

◦ most public data are quite old, and focus has mainly been on method development so far

◦ developing countries heavily under-represented in current databases

• It’s an assessment method:

◦ drives on assumptions and choices

◦ can easily be tweaked to suit particular interest (“hired gun” effect)

◦ results cannot directly be validated!

• It’s not a “supertool”

LCA : the method

The general outcome of an LCA thus is … “it depends …”

Specific LCA challenges for Indonesia/SEA

•“LCA is still quite unknown◦ although that will have to change rapidly due increasing inclusion of LCA in governmental

regulations

◦ … and is already changing, e.g., by ILCAN’s efforts (!)

• Increasing capacity needed to support a fast growth of LCA

◦ Increase of LCA curricula needed

•Data, data, data, …… data

◦ built up expertise with data collection ……”

◦ since in ecoinvent 3.4 only 36 processes for Indonesia

How can LCA/LCSA contribute to SDGs

1 clear-cutting, grassland to arable land, perennial crop2 clear-cutting, primary forest to arable land, perennial crop3 clear-cutting, secondary forest to arable land, perennial crop4 cocoa bean production, sun-dried5 coconut production, dehusked6 coffee green bean production, robusta7 deep well drilling, for deep geothermal power8 electricity production, deep geothermal9 electricity production, hydro, reservoir, tropical region10 electricity production, lignite11 electricity production, natural gas, combined cycle power plant12 electricity production, natural gas, conventional power plant13 electricity production, oil14 electricity production, photovoltaic, 3kWp slanted-roof installation, multi-Si, panel, mounted15 electricity production, photovoltaic, 3kWp slanted-roof installation, single-Si, panel, mounted16 electricity production, wind, <1MW turbine, onshore17 electricity voltage transformation from high to medium voltage18 electricity voltage transformation from medium to low voltage19 electricity, from municipal waste incineration to generic market for electricity, medium voltage20 electricity, high voltage, import from MY21 electricity, high voltage, production mix22 hard coal mine operation and hard coal preparation23 heat and power co-generation, biogas, gas engine24 heat and power co-generation, biogas, gas engine25 heat and power co-generation, wood chips, 6667 kW26 heat and power co-generation, wood chips, 6667 kW27 land already in use, annual cropland to perennial crop28 land already in use, perennial cropland to perennial crop29 land use change, perennial crop30 market for electricity, high voltage31 market for electricity, low voltage32 market for electricity, medium voltage33 market for hard coal34 market for land tenure, arable land, measured as carbon net primary productivity, perennial crop35 market for land use change, perennial crop36 palm fruit bunch production

Life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA)

LCSA : what is it?

Source: UNEP (2012) Social Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment

LCSA = broadening + deepening• Broadening of impacts (LCA + LCC +S-LCA):

◦ Based on “Triple Bottom Line” (TBL) definition

•Broadening level of analysis and Deepening:

◦ Despite many useful LCAs, little or no progress in global environmental sustainability has been made

• Need to broaden our analyses to baskets of products, total consumption, …

◦ Large-scale production of bio-energy may affect the food markets, social structures, nature, etc. through indirect land use, rebound effects, market mechanisms

• Need to deepen our analysis to include those mechanisms

LCSA : what is it?

Interpretation

Modelling

broade

ning th

e obje

ct of an

alysis

broadening the scope of indicators

Goal and scope definition

Social

Economy-wide

Meso-level

Product-oriented

Environmental Economic

EE-MRIO / general

equilibrium models / ......

IOA / partial equilibrium

models / ......

LCC SLCA

Life-Cycle Sustainability Analysis (LCSA)

Q

u

e

s

t

i

o

n

sEE-IOA / ...

process-LCA / EIO-LCA /

hybrid LCA

Environmentally Extended

Multi-Region IOA (EE-

MRIO)

How can LCA/LCSA contribute to the SDGs?

•Are there any LCA/LCSA indicators in the SDGs?

◦ There are not so many right now

• Possible reasons for the lack of life cycle-based indicators in SDGs? (Suh, 2018):

◦ Lack of operational standards

◦ Cost of implementation

◦ Lack of capacity to conduct LCA

◦ Lack and age of data

◦ Relatively small size of the community


How can LCA/LCSA contribute to the SDGs?

• If we compare the SDG indicators with what LCA and LCSA can provide:

◦ SDG targets lack environmental performance indicators

◦ SDG indicators don't consider the ‘life cycle’

◦ Indicators are mostly focused on one (environmental) issue at a time

◦ While implementing SDGs, trade offs between SDGs are likely to occur

• Thus LCA/LCSA can be really helpful:

◦ LCA/LCSA can support mapping and checking of trade-offs between goals, targets or indicators, and may thus bring evidence-based integral analyses and metrics to achieving the SDGs

• Required for mapping potential trade-offs: whole life-cycle + all relevant impacts

• Required for proving ‘sustainability’, although ‘sustainability’ itself still needs to be defined


LCA can map environmental trade-offs

•Aiming for sustainable transport systems (target 11.2), a comparison of different modes of vehicle transport may learn that FBEVs are potentially worse on toxic impacts (targets 3.9, 6.3, 12.4), eutrophication (14.1), and radiation

• Source: Mendoza Beltran et al. (2018), Environ. Sci. Technol. 52(4), 2152-2161


LCSA can also map trade-offs between 3 Ps

• Dark red represents ‘worst’, yellow represents “average”, dark green represents “best” performance. Violet = data not available

• Etna Volcanic Stone performs environmentally (LCA) best; Carrar marble performs economically (LCC) best; Perlato di Sicilia marble performs economically worst (LCC) but socially best (SLCA)

• Source: Finkbeiner et al. (2010). Sustainability 2, 3309-3322

LCSA case study on hard floor covering


IOA-based LCSA can also map 3P-trade offs• Interaction between SDG1 (Poverty) and SDG10 (Inequality), and three

environmental goals (SDG13 Carbon, SDG15 Land, SDG6 Water)

• Pursuing social goals is generally associated with higher environmental impacts

• Source: Scherer et al. Environmental Science and Policy 90 (2018) 65–72; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118308876)

Environmental impacts of reducing inequality (SDG 10) Environmental impacts of meeting a minimum income of $1.25 a day (SDG 1)


There’s no such thing as a free lunch• “End poverty” & “reduction of inequality” are a

must but will have an environmental impact

◦ trade-offs between SDGs (see example before)

• “Using coal to improve energy access (goal 7) in Asian nations, say, would accelerate climate change and acidify the oceans (undermining goals 13 and 14), as well as exacerbating other problems such as damage to health from air pollution (disrupting goal 3)”◦ Source: Nilsson et al. Nature 534, 320-322

• Environmentally sound technologies (target 17.7): new (often lab-/pilot-scale) technologies cannot simply be claimed as sustainable

◦ don’t claim, but proof (ex-ante LCA)


Increasing attention for ex-ante LCA (SDG 17)Ex-post versus ex-ante LCA: what’s

the stronger side of LCA?

Perspectives SA

Conclusions

•LCA/LCSA too complex to support single SDGs

•Should support mapping and checking of trade-offs between SDGs, bringing evidence-based integral analyses and metrics to achieving the SDGs•Governments should adopt LCA/LCSA to design integrative policies reducing

humanity’s footprint and overcoming potential trade-offs among SDGs

•Universities should develop and teach LCA/LCSA curricula

•Achieving SDGs without LCA/LCSA seems to be very challenging

Conclusions

Terimakasih atasperhatian

andaContact: [email protected]

Thank you

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