Leading Economic Change: A Discussion Paper Series from NSARDA

Where Have All The People Gone?

Population counts from the 2011 Census were released in early February. From 2006 to 2011, Canada’s total population increased by 5.9% while Nova Scotia saw only 0.9% growth. We only out-performed the Northwest Territories. Even Newfoundland & Labrador left Nova Scotia in the dust, posting growth of 1.8%.

Within Nova Scotia, only four counties saw notable population gains: Halifax, Antigonish, Hants and Colchester. Meanwhile, sizeable declines (of 4% to 10%) were recorded in Cape Breton, Guysborough County, and the South Western region.

The media and general public have focused on aging and urbanization as the causes of this change, and they are partly right. Birth rates have fallen dramatically since the baby boom. Meanwhile, cities continue to drive the post-industrial economy. People around the world are being drawn to urban life in search of economic and socio-cultural density.

But not all migrants have the same motivations. While migration almost always begins with economic considerations, it is also a social and emotional decision. It is a major biographical event. Some groups, like young families and recent retirees, often choose to live outside

major cities, in suburban and rural regions.

Migration is also complex for communities, especially when considering both the in- and out-flows. Surprisingly, the greatest out-flows are from economically prosperous cities rather than rural areas. On the surface we only see the net effect: more people arriving than leaving.

In Newfoundland, for example, high out-migration rates were never the problem. Newfoundland’s communities have struggled for decades with too few people choosing to in-migrate.

It turns out that population mobility actually helps regions adapt to economic change. In economic terms, people leave regions where their skills are not needed or valued. They move in search of the right opportunities for themselves and their families. Then new arrivals bring with them new skills that match local labour market needs.

These market forces are leading to a new economic development reality: less focus on attracting jobs and more on attracting & cultivating skills.

Leading Economic Change Number 3, March 2012

Population Change

NSARDA is the link between the Nova Scotia RDAs, providing support and collective strength. Since 1999, the Association has helped the Nova Scotia RDAs in improving the economy of communities across Nova Scotia. For more information about NSARDA and the Nova Scotia RDAs please visit www.nsarda.ca.

Leading Economic Change: A Discussion Paper Series from NSARDA

How Can Community Economic Developers Respond?

Population decline is part of the economic “domino rally” that Nobel Prize winning economist Gunnar Myrdal called “cumulative causation.” His idea was that complex social problems result from vicious cycles. Job losses can cause out-migration, lower consumer spending, and declining public revenues & services. In turn, these cause further job losses.

Reversing these factors can slow the spiral. Traditionally, economic developers focused solely on attracting new employers. But population change has created skills shortages, making it difficult to attract jobs. There is now a question of which comes first, jobs or people. Many regions have responded with successful campaigns to attract skilled immigrants, return migrants, and newcomers. And some regions have also promoted education and training for the existing population.

Myrdal called education, “the major hope for improving the individual and society.” Adult education is an extremely effective tool for reversing these downward declines, particularly when offered to displaced and disadvantaged populations. This was the essence of Coady’s Antigonish Movement, and the foundation of Community Economic Development in Nova Scotia.

Training helps displaced workers realign their skills to local labour market needs. The new reality is that few people today will hold one career for life. Life-long

learning and transferable skills are increasingly vital. They allow a workforce to adapt, rather than migrate.

Meanwhile, training for under-employed individuals (such as Aboriginal, African-Canadian, and Disabled persons) increases their participation in the labour market. It ensures that every individual can fully engage in meaningful work.

And engagement is key. More than sheer numbers of people, our regions need every individual to be productive and innovative. We need to make full use of our diverse human capital: talents, knowledge, and competencies.

The “war for talent” is also not simply about attracting the “best and brightest”. It is about developing and nurturing “the right talents”. It requires deep insight into current and future economic opportunities. A population, workforce, or human capital strategy is often a good place to start.

We all know that there is no silver bullet for population change. But there are many ways to build human capital. And once we get started, human capital grows cumulatively from one generation to the next.

One of the three pillars in Nova Scotia’s jobsHere strategy is, “Learning the right skills for good jobs.” A comprehensive Workforce Strategy was released in November 2011. This work is led by the Department of Labour and Advanced Education in partnership with Economic and Rural Development and Tourism.

The federal government is also encouraging training and education with the current phase of Canada’s Economic Action Plan. The plan’s focus on jobs and growth includes support for apprentices, older workers, and employers.

Ryan MacNeil, EcD, is Principal of Ryan MacNeil & Co., a company that helps development leaders & organizations become focused and effective. Reach him at ryan@ryanmacneil.com.

Who is working on it?

Nova Scotia’s Regional Development Authorities (RDAs) have been building human capital since their creation. In fact, “Skills, Learning and People Development” is considered one of the core RDA service areas. For example, last year, the Colchester Regional Development Association sent 345 “Colchester Cares Kits” to students who are away at university, welcomed 32 new immigrants, and supported 25 training programs with 316 participants.