learning-first product development · manufacturing lean techniques applied to product development:...
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Copyright © 2012 Targeted Convergence Corporation
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Lean Product Development
Seeing Product Development in a Different Way
X
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Let’s Begin with an Observation
and a Question
An Observation:
• It is uncommon for the companies we work with to
truly know what their customers want,
• Furthermore, when you dig deeper, they commonly
do not know whether they can do what they think
the customer wants,
• And yet, they are working as fast as possible to do it
anyway.
Why?
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Let’s start with some product development history
• 1887: Samuel Langley experimented with unmanned flight
• 1896: Two successful unmanned flights, 1/2 and 1 mile
• 1898: Secured $50,000 from U.S. War Department
• 1898: Began full scale development
• 1902: Ran out of money. Got $20,000 more
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Yes…it ended up in the river
1903: Maiden Manned Flight
(without Langley as pilot)
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In the meantime, the Wright Brothers were
observing…
• Most other investigators were spending thousands of hours
designing their aircraft and 5 seconds testing it….
(before it crashed and usually killed them).
• They did not believe this was a sensible approach,
so they focused their efforts on methods of experimentation:
“We thought that if some method could be found by which it would be possible to practice
by the hour instead of by the second there would be hope of advancing the solution of a
very difficult problem…and without any serious danger.”
Wilbur Wright
and began experimenting.
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They focused their experiments • They divided the problem of flight into three critical knowledge areas:
– Lift
– Control
– Propulsion
• They focused on each independently – and nothing else until all were
resolved.
“Success is Assured”
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Between May 1900 and December 1903 (very intermittent, part-time effort)
• Discovered
– lift and drag calculations others were using were incorrect
– optimum wing shapes and control surfaces
– there was no production engine with adequate power and low enough weight
• Invented
– A wind tunnel / mechanisms for measuring lift and drag
– wing warping technology for controlling plane in flight
– a highly efficient propeller (even by today’s standards)
– a lightweight aluminum engine
– the science of aeronautics
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Comparison of Approaches
Langley Wright Brothers
Time Invested ~17 years ~22 months
over four years.
Money Invested ~$70,000 ~$1,000
Approach
Design
Build
Test
Repeat
Test & Experiment
Repeat until feasible.
Design
Build
Result FAILURE
Airplane never flew!
SUCCESS
1st Design Successful!
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Very low (20%) Very high
(80%)
Ad hoc Systemic
Engineering Productivity
Routinely Never
Always Never
Almost always
(90%)
Very seldom
(10%)
Knowledge Shared Across Projects
Very high
variability
Highly consistent
across all projects Project Success Variability
Severe Manufacturing Start-up Problems
Published Schedules Maintainable
Unplanned Design Loopbacks
Here’s some simple metrics
- From NCMS project (Circa 1997)
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Concept Phase Planning Phase Design Phase Test Phase Launch Phase
Process divided into Phases Management Review Gates
between phases.
Detailed, task-based
plans guide work.
Continuous Improvement
of Typical Phase Gate
Processes:
- more gates
- more checklists
- more forms
Manufacturing Lean
Techniques applied to
product development:
- Value Stream Mapping
- 5S
- 3P
Quality & Engineering
Improvements:
- Six Sigma
- QFD
- Design Automation
A Decade of Process Improvements
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2007 Assessment of 24 product
development organizations.
Very low
(20%)
Very high
(80%)
Ad hoc Systemic
Engineering Productivity
Routinely Never
Always Never
Almost always
(90%)
Very seldom
(10%)
Knowledge Shared Across Projects
Very high
variability
Highly
consistent Project Success Variability
Severe Manufacturing Start-up Problems
Published Schedules Maintainable
Unplanned Design Loopbacks
Why Bother?
% wise, look like big
gains, BUT
Unfortunately, they
are looking at a much
smaller scale,
ignoring what’s
possible…
A Decade Later…Best Case Scenario
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Very low
(20%)
Very high
(80%)
Ad hoc Systemic
Engineering Productivity
Routinely Never
Always Never
Almost
always
(90%)
Very seldom
(10%)
Knowledge Shared Across Projects
Very high
variability
Highly
consistent Project Success Variability
Severe Manufacturing Start-up Problems
Published Schedules Maintainable
Unplanned Design Loopbacks
Why Bother?
% wise, look like big
gains, BUT
Unfortunately, they
are looking at a much
smaller scale,
ignoring what’s
possible…
A Decade Later…Best Case Scenario
in 1997 That 1997 NCMS Study found one
exceptional company…
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What is the state of Product Development today?
Here is what I see over and over:
• Schedules and detailed requirements are set early
• The system concept is set quickly
• This begins wide sets of planned tasks to meet requirements (Phase-Gate Planning)
• Eventually the critical knowledge gaps emerge
• The loopbacks start and continue for the life of the program
Consistent Results: project delays, cost overruns, 70% of engineers firefighting, problems repeat on next projects
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An Ideal Product Life Cycle
.
Concept
Phase
Planning
Phase
Design
Phase
Test
Phase
Launch
Phase
Define
product
concept
Evaluate /
pick 1 or 2
Partition /
create design
specs
Plan tasks
Design
components,
subsystems.
Build initial
tooling
Build,
integrate &
test Initial
market
release
Check
Manufactur-
ability
Production
Phase
Order
Fulfillment
Need I
dentified
Obsole
te
Make a
profit.
Ideally, a smooth continuous flow.
create make & market
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Unfortunately, a more typical Product Life Cycle
.
Concept
Phase
Planning
Phase
Design
Phase
Test
Phase
Launch
Phase
Define
product
concept
Evaluate /
pick 1 or 2
Partition /
create design
specs
Plan tasks
Design
components,
subsystems.
Build initial
tooling
Build,
integrate &
test Initial
market
release
Check
Manufactur-
ability
Production
Phase
Order
Fulfillment
Need Identified
Ob
so
lete
Make a
profit.
Problems are
discovered that
force design
loopbacks!
Knowledge of what is needed to
be successful is being learned
late in the process!
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Concept
Phase
Planning
Phase
Design
Phase
Test
Phase
Manufact
-uring
Pro
fit
Imp
ac
t o
f L
oo
pb
ac
ks
(Typ
ica
lly M
illio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs)
Customer
Usage
• Lost customers • Lost revenue • High support cost
• Larger schedule and revenue delay • Larger PD cost overrun • Tool rework
• Schedule and revenue delay • PD cost overrun
Minimal
Loopbacks Cost Most Companies Millions Each Year
Some problems are too
expensive to fix.
There are also negative
consequences for the customer.
• Huge schedule and revenue delay
• Huge PD cost overrun
• Large Mfg cost overrun:
• Inventory rework and scrap
• Tool rework and scrap
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The Land of Little Scrutiny
Start design early to finish on time.
Choose fast and be specific.
Product and process decisions are made:
Before customer needs are understood
Before feasibility is proven
Without knowing why past products succeeded or failed
The Fuzzy Front-End, aka:
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Concept
Phase
Planning
Phase
Design
Phase
Validation
Phase
Manufac-
turing
Customer
Usage
Knowledge doesn’t flow
between projects.
Concept
Phase
Planning
Phase
Design
Phase
Validation
Phase
Manufac-
turing
Customer
Usage
Fuzzy Front-End
Fuzzy Front-End
It Get’s Worse
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What challenge is product development trying to
solve?
• Product development is about innovating a solution that:
– Achieves your business goals
– Satisfies your customers’ interests
– Fits within your technical capabilities
Business Goals
Technical
Capability
Customer Interests
The goal is to find that sweet-spot.
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Learning: How, What, When
Product
Development
Process
“how to”
Knowledge
Cu
sto
mers
Capability
Knowledge
Customer Interest
Knowledge
(learning)
How:
1. Problem Solving.
2. Focused study,
testing and
experimentation.
What:
1. Customer Interests
2. Decision impact on
Customer Interests.
3. Decision Interaction
When:
Before design
decisions are
committed.
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What do we mean by ‘knowledge’ • Mean:
– Facts verifiable by objective direct observation or testing.
– Knowledge that explains ‘how’ and ‘why’ things work
• Not:
– Opinions, wishful thinking, guesses, assumptions or non-validated
hypotheses.
• Knowledge must be:
– Validated
– Visible
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Product
Specs
Specific as possible Early as possible.
Rough targets to start. Details evolve with the project.
Design
Decisions Made as early as possible. Delayed as long as possible.
Testing Mostly after design, to fix. Mostly before design, to learn
Project
Management
Administrative – to manage process compliance
Technical – to manage knowledge growth into products
Innovation
Focus New product concepts
New product breakthroughs, but mostly subsystem platforms
Traditional Toyota
Toyota is in a different paradigm
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The Toyota Philosophy
Product development is not about developing cars,
it is about developing knowledge about cars.
Great cars will emerge from the interaction.
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Focused Knowledge
Development across
projects
Design Phase Validationt Phase Launch Phase
Design Phase Validation Phase Launch Phase
And the pull of
the knowledge
into a cadence
of products
RAPID CYCLES OF LEARNING & CONVERGNCE
RAPID CYCLES OF LEARNING & CONVERGNCE
Using LFPD, Product Development progresses
like this
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Baseline knowledge
-Limit / tradeoff curves
(Checksheets)
Design Phase Validationt Phase Launch Phase Set Based Learning
New Knowledge baselines
This ensures knowledge reuse and continuous innovation
Learning / Problem
Solving
This ensures both quality and schedule
Knowledge integration
into product decisions Creation of new
knowledge through
Set-based design
Project Launch (“Success is
Assured”)
Key Integrating Events pull the knowledge
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Validatio
n Phase
Manufac
-turing
Customer
Usage Design
Phase
IE
Business objectives, Target Customer, & Project Targets defined
Engineering understands Customer Interests
Define capabilities & knowledge gaps for alternatives.
Define alternatives: safe and desired.
Decide which gaps (problems) will be staffed and funded
Approve project (schedule / staffing)
Staggered transition to detailed design
Eliminate weaker alternatives & converge
IE
IE
IE
IE
IE
Close Knowledge gaps
Project Launch (“Success is
Assured”)
Capture the knowledge
The knowledge and schedule are aligned
throughout the project life cycle
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Detailed
Design Production
Maintain /
Support IE IE
IE
IE
This is the project baseline schedule
What are your integrating set-based decisions?
IE
IE
This is the business objective & market
What are the key customer interests and targets?
What are your capabilities & knowledge gaps?
What are your alternatives and costs to pursue?
Do you have a solution for the gaps ?
These are your subsystem specs
IE
Their schedule says they are here
Their knowledge says they are here
For comparison, this is what we see at most companies
- Schedules out of sync with the knowledge
- Success is not assured
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Learning Process
Knowledge grown via
LAMDA
Knowledge facilitating LAMDA Discussion
Design limits visible
Knowledge reuse pulled by
CHECKSHEETS
Knowledge
Documented
in A3’s
Knowledge Brief
C/A VISIBLE tradeoff decisions
P/D
LFPD tools are simple – but they pull PDCA
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LAMDA
Learning
Process
Go to Gemba
See for yourself
True root cause
Visual to avoid
misunderstanding
Learn by reaching consensus with
knowledge not opinion
Take action
Verify results
Repeat
Solving Problems LFPD-Style:
Using LAMDA-based PDCA
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The A3 Report
• Most obvious:
– One page
– Standardized communication
– On A3 size paper (11 x 17)
• Most important:
– Pulls a LAMDA-based PDCA story
– Drives LAMDA discussions and consensus
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Problem K-Brief Example (equivalent to Toyota “A3”)
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Learning Process
Knowledge grown via
LAMDA
Knowledge facilitating LAMDA Discussion
Design limits visible
Knowledge reuse pulled by
CHECKSHEETS
Knowledge
Documented
in A3’s
Knowledge Brief
C/A VISIBLE tradeoff decisions
P/D
That was the learning part
now capture and reuse the Knowledge
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No
ise level
Muffler: goal is to minimize both noise and back pressure
Safe region
Infeasible
Back pressure
Multiple prototypes are
built and tested to
failure.
Test before design is
used to establish
feasible regions of
important design
interactions.
Generalizing and Visualizing the Knowledge
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Tradeoff and limit curves are VISUAL representations of product and process physics and economics
They are Toyota’s engineer’s primary tool to:
Understand
Communicate between specialties and functions
Train new engineers
Record knowledge
Communicate between customer and supplier
Conduct design reviews
Communicate between developers and managers
Design quality into the product
Infeasible
Safe region
“The most important thing I learned at Toyota was their dependence on and the power of limit and tradeoff curves” Dr. Allen Ward
Introducing Limit & Tradeoff Curves
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Product Development Value Stream
The flow of decisions,
people and equipment that
create the design, BOM
and Manufacturing
Processes for producing a
profitable product
Knowledge Value Stream
The flow of knowledge about
markets, customers,
capabilities, and technologies -
generalized and visualized for
reuse
Functional
Managers
Own
Knowledge
Value Stream
Chief (System)
Engineer
Owns Product
Value Stream
Design Phase Validationt Phase Launch Phase Set Based Learning
Design Phase Validation Phase Launch Phase Set Based Learning
The LFPD structure balances the system
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Mentor to
ensure
success
Learning Process
A3
Reports
IE
Identify need
- Problem
- Opportunity
- Knowledge
PDCA
Functional Managers and Teams
Solves
problems
Document Establish & improve
the resulting knowledge
Checksheets
Everybody
Chief Engineer / System Designers pull their projects via
Integrating Events
KNOWLEDGE CONTINUOUSLY
FLOWS
Review, innovate, and
teach with the knowledge
The roles and responsibilities are well defined
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Cross Project Knowledge-Driven Development
Pulled by Visible Knowledge
Balanced by Leadership
Summary: This is the LFPD System
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now imagine…
success assured