learning from the destructive trail left by caribbean...
TRANSCRIPT
Learning from the Destructive Trail Left by Caribbean
Earthquakes
Lloyd L. Lynch
Seismic Research Centre
The University of the West Indies
ANNUAL CDM CONFERENCE
Global Earthquake Model Session
5TH DECEMBER 2011
1692, Jamaica;
M 7.5,
MMI - IX-X;
3000 Killed
66% of city sank
1766, Trinidad;
M 7.8, MMI – VII-IX;
Changed face of Island.
Most masonry buildings
destroyed
1843, Guadeloupe;
M 7.9, MMI - IX-X;
2000 Killed. Heavy
liquefaction. Pointe-a-
Pitre ruined
1918, Puerto Rico
M 7.8, MMI - IX-X;
118 Killed,
Deadly Tsunami
US$4M losses
1867, Virgin Islands
MMI – VIII, St Johns;
St Thomas, St. Croix
Tsunami Damaged V.I.,
PR & St. Georges
1997, Tobago
MMI – VIII; Damaged
several buildings;
TT$18M in losses
2010, Haiti, P-a-P
M7.0(Mw), MMI IX-X
230,000 killed,
300,000 injured
1,000,000 homeless
US$12Billion in losses
1842, Northern Haiti;
M 8.1, MMI - IX-X;
Over 10000 Killed
Cap Hatien destroyed.
Fatal to other cities.
Since 1530
• About 100 Destructive/Large/Fatal events
• 5 Major Earthquakes
• Several Destructive Eruptions
• More than 17,000 deaths before 2010
• Between 230,000-316,000 deaths in 2010
• Multi Billions in earthquake losses
• Today
• 40,000,000 people exposed
• Trillions of dollars in property exposed
Key Vulnerability Lessons
• Many of the regions destructive events occurred in
eras of sparse population.
– 1690 Event in the Lesser Antilles (A few thousands)
– 1751 event: Port-au-Prince was newly established.
– 1766 Events in Trinidad (<3000)
– 1839 and 1843 events in L. Antilles
– 1692 and 1906 events in Jamaica
– All volcanic eruptions except the last St. Vincent event
Time to Successive Billions in
World Population: 1800-2050
Regional Distribution of Global Population: 1950, 2002, and 2050
Population
rankings of major
world regions
continue to shift in
favour of
developing
regions.
"Developed World" =
Japan, N. America
(excl. Mexico), W.
Europe, Australia,&
New Zealand.
NIS = New Indep.
States of the former
Soviet Union
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base.
Caribbean exclusively
17M 39M 50M
Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000
Santo Domingo
Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000
Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000
Population Growth and Urbanization
Metropolitan Country Population Metro area Density (/km2)
Santo Domingo Dom. Rep. 3,813,214 1,400.79 km2 2,722.2/km2
Puerto Plata Dom. Rep. 277,981 459.71 km2 604.7/km2
Port-au-Prince Haiti 3,000,000 735.78 km2 3,817.89/km2
Kingston/St. Andrew Jamaica 651,880 480 km2 1,358.1/km2
East-West Corridor Trinidad/Tobago 548,000 899 km2 609.6/km2
San Juan Puerto Rico 434,374 199.2 km2 2,180.6/km2
Santiago de Cuba Cuba 423,392 1,023.8 km2 413.5/km2
UNPLANNED URBANIZATION
Chronology of Large and Damaging
Caribbean Earthquakes
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920
4.0
6.0
8.0
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800
1. Trinidad & Tobago 1766, 1795, 1825, 1888, 1954, 1968, 1997
2. Grenada 1888
3. St. Vincent 1718, 1734, 1812, 1839, 1844, 1902, 1971, 1979
4. Barbados 1953
5. St. Lucia 1839, 1906, 1953
6. Martinique: 1702, 1727, 1827, 1839, 1906, 1902, 1932, 1946, 2007
7. Guadeloupe: 1843, 1897, 1976, 2004
8. Dominica 1843, 1849, 1969, 2004, 2007
9. Montserrat 1690, 1843, 1867, 1898, 1934, 1935, 1995
10. Antigua & Barbuda 1690, 1843, 1974
11. St. Kitts & Nevis 1690, 1843, 1950
12. Netherlands Antilles 1867, 1992
13. Puerto Rico & VI 1787, 1843, 1867 1810
14. Dominican Republic 1564, 1751, 1842, 1943, 1946, 1953, 2003
15. Haiti 1564, 1701, 1751, 1770, 1842, 1887, 2010
16. Jamaica 1692, 1780, 1812, 1907, 1957
17. Cuba 1551, 1578, 1678, 1766, 1842, 1852, 1880, 1932 18. Cayman Islands 2004
19. Belize 2009
Distribution of earthquakes by Country
Key Vulnerability Lessons
• Most of the major and damaging earthquakes (and
volcanic eruptions) occur in periods when the
affected territories were colonies. Eg.
– 1690 Event in the Lesser Antilles
– 1751 events in Haiti and the Dom. Rep.
– 1766 Events in Trinidad and Cuba
– 1839 and 1843 events in L. Antilles
– 1692 and 1906 events in Jamaica
– All volcanic eruptions except the last St. Vincent event
25 October 1766 Trinidad Earthquake
Caused widespread disaster: whatever
the location and vulnerability class of
the structures, most (>60%) dwellings
and religious buildings collapsed or
suffered very heavy damages.
Location and Intensity
distribution of quake
Many religious buildings and
a small Fort as depicted in this
plan suffered total collapse
EFFECTS
Human Cost: Limited fatalities partly due to low population (~2500)
Economic: Heavy cost of repairs. Recovery period lasted 10 years. Taxes suspended
Environmental: “Face of island completely changed.” Altered course of St. Joseph river.
Caribbean Cities destroyed by Natural Disasters
Port Royal, Jamaica 1692 – Earthquake, 1712 & 1722 Hurricane
St. Joseph, Trinidad 1766 – Earthquake
St. Pierre, Martinique 1902 – Volcanic Eruption
Belize City, Belize 1963 – Hurricane
Plymouth, Montserrat 1997 - Volcanic Eruption
The 1770 Port-au-Prince
Earthquake
Haiti
Earthquake Parameters Date, Time: 23:15 on 3 June 1770
Magnitude: ~7.5 (Mw), shallow depth
Int. (MMI): Port-au-Prince, Leogane (X)
Petit Goâve (IX), Les Cayes
VII
Port-de-Paix , Tiburon (VI)
Jamaica (VI), Santo Dom. (V)
Earth fissures emitting vapours.
Tsunami inundated Gulf of Gonâve.
Washed 7.2 Km into Cul-de-Sac depression.
Liquefaction: Extensive in the Cul-de-Sac
Socio Economic Consequences
250+ perished in the earthquake.
Destroyed P-a-P, and leveled all buildings
between Miragoâne and Petit Goâve.
Thousands of slaves escaped in the chaos
Local economy collapsed
15,000 slaves died from subsequent famine
Another 15,000 died from the consumption
of tainted meat from Spanish traders
Only two hundred killed in P-a-P
partly due to the wide streets, low
houses, the warning rumbling noise,
and the hot weather which caused
many people to be outside or on
their porches at the time.
(Scherer)
Leogane EFZ Port-au-Prince
Tiburon Petit Goâve
Port-de-Paix
Gonaive
Lake Miragoâne
Gulf of
Gonâve
Cul-de-Sac
Cap-Haïtien
1843 Lesser Antilles Earthquake
: Lithographs and engravings
depicting effects in Guadeloupe
Fire and earthquake damage in
Pointe-a-Pitre. People trying to
escape in boats.
School room(?) in Pointe-a-
Pitre. Furniture, books, and
people thrown about by the
earthquake.
Earthquake in Pointe-a-Pitre.
Severe damage and fire. Erupting
volcanoes, San Friere and Sans
Toucher in the background.
Source: Jan Kozak Collection
La Habanera de Infanzón y Rodríguez
factory in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico
San Fermín, Puerto Rico Earthquake (11/10/1918)
Magnitude ~ 7.5 (Mw),
Intensity (RFS) - IX (Pt, Boringuen),
118 persons killed, many fatally injured
Damage – US$4 million
Triggered a 6 metre (20 ft) Tsunami
which assailed the NW coast and caused
30 deaths in Aguadilla
Tsunami damage in Mayagüez
1918
Source: Reid H. F. and Taber, S., 1919.
The Puerto Rico Earthquake of 1918
May 7, 1842 Cap Haitïen Earthquake - Haiti
This M8.0+, (and peak MMI IX)
earthquake destroyed the city of Cap
Haitïen and other towns in the north of
Haiti, the Dominican Republic and SE
Cuba.
Cities/Towns ruined:
Cap Haitïen: IX,
Port de Paix: IX,
Le Môle St. Nicolas: IX,
Fort Liberté: IX,
Santiago de los Caballeros IX, and
Baracoa, Cuba: VIII
Around 10,000 killed
½ population of Cap Haitïen (4-5K)
1842 Cap Hatien Earthquake
The town of Cap Hatien today Location of the 1842 event
The Majestic Sans Souci Palace of Cap Hatien
was destroyed by the earthquake
Citadelle la Ferrière fort with 4m thick walls
survived this and several other earthquakes
Destruction of Kingston by Earthquake and Fire – 14 Jan 1907 2000 killed and over #2 million pounds sterling in damage
4 August 1946 Dominica Republic Earthquake
Earthquake of magnitude 8.0
hits northern Dominican
Republic. 100 are killed and
20,000 are left homeless.
EVENT DAMAGE COMMENTS
1839 Martinique. Mag. 7.5 Fort de France MMI: IX
4,7 M FF Est. cost to repair damage to Point-a-
Pitre (MMI VIII)
1907 Jamaica. Mag. 6.5 Kingston MMI: IX
£2 M Est. cost of repairs to fire and
earthquake damage. 90K homeless.
1918 Puerto Rico. Mag. 7.3
Mayaguez MMI: VIII
US$4 M Earthquake and tsunami destroyed
about 700 homes and buildings.
1932 Cuba. Mag. 6.8 Santiago de Cuba MMI: VIII
20 M Pesos Most buildings were damaged. 500
injured
1974 Antigua. Mag. 7.4
EC$23 M Larger and older buildings damaged.
Oil refinery and Port also suffered.
1997 Tobago. Mag. 6.7 SW Tobago MMI: VII-VIII
TT$18 M 3 houses destroyed and damage to
several public buildings
2003 Dom. Rep. Mag. 6.5 Puerto Plata
RD$500
-700M
Several buildings damaged.
2007 Martinique. Mag. 7.4 Martinique MMI: VI-VIII
€20-30 M Deep earthquake. Many larger
structures suffered significant damage
2010 Haiti. Mag. 7.0 Port-au-Prince MMI: IX
US$12 B Est. Total cost of damage by ECLAC.
216K dead and over 1 million injured
Thanks for your attention…
Q & A
Estimate of the Economic Impact of a 1907
(Jamaica) Scenario earthquake in 2005
Maurice
Mason
While the estimate
was reasonable it
was largely
rejected by the
engineering
community
because robust
scientific methods
were not used.
Economic Growth in the Caribbean 1960-2007
GDP per Capita, 1960-2007 (Index 1960 = 100), Source: ECLAC
using data from World Bank
St. Vincent
Jamaica
Belize
Bahamas Barbados
Guyana
Trinidad &
Tobago
GDP per Capita, 1970-2007 (Index 1970 = 100), Source: ECLAC
using data from World Bank
Economic Growth in the Caribbean 1970-2007
Antigua/Barb
uda
Grenada
St. Lucia
Dominica
St
Kitts/Nev
is
Surinam
Caribbean Constraints
Other Positive Macro-economic Indicators
• Human Development (Index) – Education, Literacy,
– How skilful is the workforce
– Health and health care
– Standard of living
• Fixed Capital Formation – Building stock
– Infrastructure
– Developed properties
• Foreign Direct Investment – Foreign capital and funds
– Job opportunities
– Improved productivity level
Within seconds a large or major earthquake can wipe out these
development gains that accrue over the last 40-60 years
Constraints and Challenges
• Inadequate Human Resource Capacity for – Eq. Hazard/Risk Assessment
– Planning and development
– Building regulation
– Disaster Management (Eq. Risk Ignored, Overlooked)
• Ignorance/Apathy/Indifference – Public
– Civil society
– Government
– Professional Associations
– Institutions
• Coordination of the many programmes and projects that are already underway or soon to come on stream as well as bringing to bear the useful results of concluded projects that have so far not been incorporated into policy and practice.
Corruption Perception Index: Caribbean Rankings
Rank Country/territory 2008 CPI Score Surveys used Confidence range
1 New Zealand 9.3 6 9.2–9.5
18 Japan 7.3 8 7.0–7.6
18 United States 7.3 8 6.7–7.7
21 Saint Lucia 7.1 3 6.6–7.3
22 Barbados 7.0 4 6.5–7.3
23 Chile 6.9 7 6.5–7.2
28 Saint Vincent 6.5 3 4.7–7.3
33 Dominica 6.0 3 4.7–6.8
36 Puerto Rico 5.8 4 5.0–6.6
65 Cuba 4.3 4 3.6–4.8
72 T’dad &Tobago 3.6 4 3.1–4.0
96 Jamaica 3.1 5 2.8–3.3
102 Dom. Republic 3.0 5 2.7–3.2
177 Haiti 1.4 4 1.1–1.7
CPI Score’ relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as
seen by businesspeople and country analysts, and ranges between
10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt).