lecture 1 online stats spring 2012 post

8/3/2019 Lecture 1 Online Stats Spring 2012 Post

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L E C T U R E 1 : I N T R O D U C T I O N T O T H E C O U R S E

Business & Economics Statistics II

Online

D R. DA VE M C E VO Y

E C O N O M I C S D E P A R T M E N T

A P P A L A C H I A N S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y


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Oh, people can come up withOh, people can come up withstatistics to prove anything,statistics to prove anything, Kent.Kent.

14% of people know that.14% of people know that.

Homer SimpsonHomer Simpson

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Stats: Our DefinitionStats: Our Definition

General Definition: The science of collecting,presenting and interpreting data.

In the business world, the general definition issimply applied to the business environment

In short: STATISTICS IS DISCOVERYTHROUGH DATA

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Sometimes its boringSometimes its boring

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Sometimes its totally awesomeSometimes its totally awesome

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The Sabermetric Manifesto by David Grabiner (1994)[2] begins:

Bill James defined sabermetrics as "the search for objective knowledge

about baseball." Thus, sabermetrics attempts to answer objective

questions about baseball, such as "which player on the Red Sox

contributed the most to the team's offense?" or "How many home runs

will Ken Griffeyhit next year?" It cannot deal with the subjectivejudgments which are also important to the game, such as "Who is your

favorite player?" or "That was a great game."

Stats in Action: Can analyzing data help winStats in Action: Can analyzing data help win

baseball games?baseball games?

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SABERMETRICS


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Stats can earn you big moneyStats can earn you big money

Example: TheExample: The NetFlixNetFlix PrizePrize

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http://www.netflixprize.com/


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Course ObjectivesCourse Objectives

(1) Use sample data to draw conclusions about

a larger population.

Hypotheses tests

(2) Estimate how one variable tends to change

in response to another variable or set ofvariables.

Regression Analysis

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Example:Mars claims that population

percentages forM&M

s are:

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We can test these

individual claims(i.e., hypotheses tests)


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Hypothesis Test Example:Hypothesis Test Example: Toyota claims theirToyota claims theirPriusPrius gets a combined average of 55 MPGgets a combined average of 55 MPG

y http://www.toyota.com/prius/specs.html

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ExampleExample:: On average, which country is

happier, the United States or Canada?(Source: United Nations Human

Development Index 2011)

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Regression example: Carbon and Temperature

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Regression Example: From Stats II Fall 2011

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Course WebsiteCourse Website

http://asulearn.appstate.edu/

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Topic 1: The FundamentalsTopic 1: The Fundamentals

y Chapters 1- 3 are pretty basic and you probablyretained most of that information.

y *Chapter 4 you should definitely review.

y Chapters 5 and 6 are on probability. We will be usingprobability concepts throughout the semester so you

should be broadly familiar with this material.

y **Chapter 7 and Chapter 8 are very important we willcover this material and you must review these to

understand what is going on.

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lecture 1 online stats spring 2012 post

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