lecture 15 environmental kuznet_s curve_001

8/6/2019 Lecture 15 Environmental Kuznet_s Curve_001

1/33

Will China Go the

Way of Easter

Island?

Lecture 15 (or so)

Environment and

Development in

China


2/33

Plan

Review the case of Easter Island

Examine other cases

Understand challenge of managing resources

Will China succeed:

Introducing the Environmental Kuznets Curve


3/33

Lecture 15

Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve Operating in China?


4/33

The Kuznets Curve


5/33

Environmental Kuznets Curve


6/33

Environmental Kuznets CurveThe Bad Times!!!


7/33


8/33

Question: What is this?


9/33


Answer: The View of Beijings Fragrant Hills

from my mountain view apartment!


10/33


11/33


12/33

0

200

gangtu

oqia

ogu

oguo

guagongsha

n

luxianshou

payan cu

ntan

tuokou

sha

iwangba

nan

jinguan

jinjiangko

u

lucheng

hukou

jinjip

o

wanh

ekou

siheshan

jiaoshanwe

i

xiaolixian

g

/

1 5 0 /

Level of Silt Build up, Yellow River

bad

Downstream Upstream


13/33


14/33


Answer: Beijing on a day of a severe sandstorm (somesay are made worse by desertification)


15/33

Are There Good Times?

What Will Lead to Them?

?


16/33

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

1990 1991 1992 1993

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SO2 Concentration

Percentage of Population

with Acc ess to Gas %

SO2 mg/m3 Percentage %

Year


17/33

Location City 1991 1995 1999

Northern

Qinhuandao 0.045 0.064 0.040

Huhehaote 0.035 0.093 0.048

Yinchuan 0.056 0.085 0.090

Lianyungang 0.049 0.024 0.018

Southern

Suzhou 0.065 0.071 0.043

Nantong 0.05 0.046 0.032

Ningbo 0.043 0.027 0.021

Wenzhou 0.061 0.037 0.025

Hefei 0.046 0.050 0.020

Xiamen 0.008 0.011 0.030

Shenzhen 0.016 0.015 0.014

Zhanjiang 0.037 0.032 0.011

Nanning 0.05 0.07 0.035

Guilin 0.085 0.026 0.017

Haikou 0.004 0.005 0.008

Average 0.043 0.044 0.030

SO2 Concentration in Medium and Small Cities ( Population < 1 million)


18/33

Class I-II III-IV V

Northern rivers

Liaohe 11.1 33.3 55.6Huaihe 22.2 66.6 11.1

Haihe 21.0 17.0 62.0

Songhua River 0 47.1 52.9

Yellow River 8.3 25.0 66.7Southern rivers

Yangtze River 31.3 53.1 18.6

Pearl River 31.0 54.7 14.8

Comparison of WaterQuality: South (Rich) versus North (Poor)

POO

R

RICH


19/33

Forested Area

This is not to saythat ChinasLogging Policywas working still stripping oldgrowth forests,but in richerSouth

(remember themountainousSouth?), begin toplant massivetracts of trees

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1950s 1980 1993

1970s 1988 2000


20/33

What is mechanism forimprovement?

Not Environmental Groups!

But it is happening: Government response (to rising direct and social

costs)

E.g., Ban Leaded Gasoline (state provides health care)

Grain for Green (see below)

Citizen response (to rising direct costs)

Confronting Chinas water shortages

Relate to the Easter Island lessons so: maybe works / maybe not


21/33

Case Study:

Response of the Government

Grain for Green:Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness and

Sustainability of ChinasConservation Set-aside Program


22/33

1950s: Lots of forests highdemand for 1950s Big Push/ for 1950s/1960s Great

Leap Forward / for1960s/1970s industrializationby Mao (Walking on TwoLegs) and for Dengs1980s/1990s Reform

deforestation


23/33

Huge Floods Causedabout 20 billion dollars ofdamage


24/33

Grain for Greenpilot1999 scale up starting in

2000


25/33

Mechanism of Grain for Green

Farmers set aside all or part of certain types ofland and plant seedlings to grow trees

US$1 = 1.78 yuan(PPP)

$1,180

$169

$421

$1,770

$169

$421

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

US$

Yellow River Yangtze River

Compensation (US$/ha/year)

Seedlings (initial year)

Cash payments

In-kind grain


26/33

Mechanism of Grain for Green Fifteen times the average rental payment under

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in U.S.

(US$/ha/year)

$1348

$1938

$113

0

500

1000

1500

2000

$USperha

Yellow River Yangtze River

Basin

U.S. (CRP)

Comparison ofCompensation (PPP)


27/33

Scale of Grain for Green

Largest conservation experiment in thedeveloping world

14.7 million hectares by end of program 4.4 million on slope of at least 25 degrees

20 provinces, 400 counties, 27 thousandvillages, 15 million farmers (2001)

US CRP: 13.6 mil ha, $1.7 billion/yr (2000)

GFG: 2 mil ha, $0.8 billion/yr (2002)


28/33

Issues

Cost-effectiveness Is the program achieving the policy objective at the

lowest possible cost?

Environmental benefit (objective): control of soil erosion Opportunity cost: forgone net revenue from cultivation

Sustainability of program achievements Concerns over welfare impacts to participants

Post-program land use decisions


29/33

Changes in Real Income

per Household

Sustainability (1): Short-term welfare impact

Change in Real Income perHousehold

(Guizhou)

2361 23002506

87 36297376

487 500151

222 183175

206 183314

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1999 2000

Yuan

LCP subsidy

Grain

Veg/fruit/oil

Other ag

Livestock

Remittance

Other

Off-farm

Change in Real Income perHousehold

(Ningxia)

1326 15631751

141130

203241

303

494345

278

103424

374281

1828

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1999 2000

Yuan


30/33

Change in Number of Households with

Revenue from Off-farm Labor/Business, Livestock,and Remittance

Sustainability (2): Change in income source

1 LQJ[LDQ

2IIIDUP /LYHVWRFN 5HPLWWDQFH

* XL]KRXQ

2IIIDUP /LYHVWRFN 5HP LWWDQFH

In fact, in new paper: document G4G poverty reduction andmigration by young and educated (retirment by old and uneducated)


31/33

Much Cleaner Water Less Siltation BetterFlood Control More Electricity Generation

Mechanism: perception of loss (all caused by myopic managers) govt takes over(using correct informationmostly) forests recover / floods abate

But: any unforeseen consequences? Drying up of Yellow River? Food shortages?


32/33

What still to worry about?

Pollution from cars? [incentive NOT to regulate!]

Irreversible problems

Water pollution [the irreversible part contamination

of groundwater] Wildlife destruction

Tropical forests (cant be replaced by fruit trees)

Carbon and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions

But who should pay?


33/33

Will China Go

the Way of

Easter Island?

lecture 15 environmental kuznet_s curve_001

Documents