lee county hotel overview · nashville, tn 74.1 6.2 bachelorette parties orlando, fl 79.3 4.8...
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© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Lee County Hotel OverviewTourist Development Council
Jennifer FosterBusiness Development Executive, Destinations
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www.hotelnewsnow.comData Dashboard>View All Data Presentations
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• Total US Review
• Florida Performance
• Lee County Performance
• Comparable Markets
• Pipeline
• Forecast
Agenda
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Total U.S. Review
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 5December 2017, Total US Results
December 2017
RevPAR +4.6%
Occupancy +2.3%
Highest December Room Demand: 86 Million
Transient RevPAR +3.9%
“In Construction” rooms declined again from last year (-3.7%)
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Full Year 2017: A Record Year!
% Change
Room Supply 1.8%
Room Demand 2.7%
Occupancy (*Record*) 65.9% 0.9%
A.D.R. (*Record*) $127 2.1%
RevPAR (*Record*) $85 3.0%
Room Revenue 4.9%
YTD December 2017, Total US Results
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US December RevPAR: 2 States Continue to Help Weaker US Results
Total US: +4.6%Florida: +14.7%Texas: +13.6%
Total US excluding Florida and Texas: +2.4%
*RevPAR % Change, December 2017
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Demand Continues to Grow. Supply Growth Not an Issue
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2017
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Did We Miss The “2016 Downturn”? Looks Like Smooth Sailing Ahead
-3.4
-6.7
-9.7
0.9
6.8 7.5
2.1
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2017
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RevPAR Growth: Erratic Monthly Numbers, But Overall Trend Is Still Steady
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2016 2017
Monthly 12MMA
*Total U.S., RevPAR % Change by month and 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017
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RevPAR Growth: Almost 8 Consecutive Years
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 2000 2010
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 12/2017
56 Months 94 Months111 Months
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Class Review YTD
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Class: GDP Growth Spurs Very Healthy Demand Growth Across All Classes
2.11.7
4.34.0
0.2
-0.4
2.42.0
5.0 4.8
1.5
0.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, December 2017 YTD
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ADR Growth Drives RevPAR Growth, But Occupancy Growth Still Contributes As Well
0.3 0.30.7 0.8
1.20.9
1.41.6
1.6 1.6
2.4 3.1
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
ADR % Change
Occ % Change
*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, December 2017 YTD
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Segmentation
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Transient Segment – Rooms reserved at rack rate, corporate negotiated, package, government rate or rooms booked via third party websites.
Group Segment – Rooms sold simultaneously in blocks of 10 or more.
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Transient Performance: Healthy Demand Increases in Q4. ADR Growth Still Anemic
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017
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Group Performance: Demand Continues to Decline. ADR Growth Slowing Month By Month
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017
Easter Shift
Jewish Holiday Shift
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Demand Growth is Transient Driven
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
s
Transient DemandGroup Demand
*Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by year 2011 – R12 2017
Demand % Change ‘11 – ’17:Transient: +19.1%
Group: +7%
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ADR: Lately Transient ADR Is Hardly Moving
$150
$175
$200
$225
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Transient ADR
Group ADR
ADR % Change ‘11 – ’17:Transient: +23%
Group: +21%
*Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by year 2011 – R12 2017
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Transient ADR Growth Slowing Despite Record Level Occupancy
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Transient Group
Transient & Group ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2014 – 3/2017
1.7
3.7
Welcome to Florida!
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Florida Performance: Record Setting!!!
+1.4%
+4.6%
+3.2%+2.6%
+5.9%
Occupancy: 73.9%ADR: $138RevPAR: $102
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
2017 YE, Total Florida Results
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Demand Growth Holds Out Over Supply Growth
-0.2 -2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Revenue % Change
Florida. Revenue, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017
4.6%
1.4%
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13 STR Florida Markets (164 Total US Markets)
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2017: A Good Year For Most (But Not All)
Market OCC % ADR % Change Influenced By
Nashville, TN 74.1 6.2 Bachelorette Parties
Orlando, FL 79.3 4.8
Detroit, MI 66.6 4.7
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 72.6 4.0 Hurricane Irma Hangover
Washington, DC-MD-VA 72.1 4.0 Inauguration / Women’s March
Miami/Hialeah, FL 76.7 -0.6 New Supply
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 82.8 -0.7
Superbowl L 2016 / Moscone
Center Closed April – December
New York, NY 86.7 -1.4 New Supply
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 68.6 -1.7 DNC 2016
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 67.0 -2.1
Prepping for SuperBowl LII.
Supply +3.5%
* December 2017 YTD ADR % Change and absolute OCC in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
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Florida Markets RevPAR Change – Mainly ADR Driven
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Rev
PAR
% C
han
ge
ADR
Occupancy
2017 YE, Florida Market Occupancy and ADR % Change
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Lee County Performance
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Lee County Hotel Performance 2017
% Change
Room Supply 1.0%
Room Demand 4.0%
Occupancy 71.8% 3.0%
A.D.R. $151 1.0%
RevPAR $108 4.0%
Room Revenue 5.1%
YE 2017, Lee County, FL
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Demand Growth Rebounds, Supply Growth on the Rise
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
1%
Lee County., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017
4%
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ADR Growth Slowing but Steady
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Occupancy % Change
ADR % Change
Lee County, Occ & ADR % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017
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Monthly Occupancy Rates with YOY Percent Change
75.1%
83.7% 86.1%78.6%
64.6% 66.2% 68.6%
55.9% 58.2%
77.3% 75.9% 73.0%
January February March April May June July August September October November December
-4.1%
Lee County Occ Rates by Month 2017
-1.8% -2.7% 3.3% -0.5% -3.2%-5.6% 9.2% 12.4%22.9% 14.2%0.5%
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Transient vs. Group Occupancy Trends
Lee County, FL – Customer Segmentation Occ (Luxury and Upper Upscale) Full Year 2012 – 2017
41.3%44.8%
50.9%52.7% 52.1%
53.4%
13.3% 14.3% 13.6%16.0% 15.9% 17.1%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Transient Group
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Transient vs. Group ADR Trends
Lee County, FL – Customer Segmentation ADR (Luxury and Upper Upscale)
$136$138 $142
$154$158 $160
$103$108
$112
$119
$127 $129
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Transient Group
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Comparative Markets
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Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Growth Across All Counties
0.8
-1.1
1.0
4.5
3.2
-2.4
1.9
4.4
1.41.8
4.54.0
5.5
4.7
0.2
4.9
6.3
4.6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
BrowardCounty
CollierCounty
Lee County SarasotaCounty
Miami-DadeCounty
MonroeCounty
Palm BeachCounty
PinellasCounty
Florida
Supply Demand
Supply / Demand Percent Change; YE 2017
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Healthy Occupancy Growth
0.9
5.7
3.0
1.0
1.4
2.6
3.0
1.9
3.2
1.8
0.2
1.0
2.3
-0.6 -0.7
2.7
3.2
2.6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
BrowardCounty
CollierCounty
Lee County SarasotaCounty
Miami-Dade MonroeCounty
Palm BeachCounty
PinellasCounty
Florida
Occ ADR
Occupancy / ADR Percent Change, YE 2017
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RevPAR Growth in Most Florida Markets Exceeds USA 3.0% Average
2.8
5.8
4.0
3.3
0.8
2.0
5.8
5.1
5.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
BrowardCounty
CollierCounty
Lee County SarasotaCounty
Miami-DadeCounty
MonroeCounty
Palm BeachCounty
PinellasCounty
Florida
RevPAR Percent Change, YE 2017
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In Construction: Vertical construction on the physical building has begun.
Final Planning:Construction will begin within the next 12 months.
Planning:Construction will begin in more than 13 months.
Under Contract
Pipeline
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US Pipeline: First Decline in I/C since the Recovery (Now for 3 Months Running)
Phase 2017 2016 % Change
In Construction 180 187 -3.7%
Final Planning 205 198 3.5%
Planning 202 174 16%
Under Contract 588 560 5%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, December 2017 and 2016
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Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game
8.6
22.4
53.5
62.7
11.7
1.9
19.2
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated*US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, December 2017
72%
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Phase Projects Rooms
In Construction 109 14,525
Final Planning 153 21,250
Planning 154 26,853
Total Under Contract Pipeline
416 62,628
Total Florida Pipeline, by Project Phase January 2018
Total Florida Pipeline
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Phase Projects Rooms
In Construction 0 0
Final Planning 4 600
Planning 4 380
Total Under Contract Pipeline
8 980
Lee County Pipeline, by Project Phase January 2018
Lee County - Increases in Supply to Come
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Incoming Properties – Final Planning
Autograph Collection
Fort Myers Downtown
248 Rooms
Open Date: Dec 2019
Holiday Inn Fort Myers
148 Rooms
Open Date: March 2019
Fairfield Inn & Suites Bonita Springs
114 Rooms
Open Date: Sept 2019
Staybridge Suites
Fort Myers
90 Rooms
Open Date: May 2019
Lee County Construction Pipeline, January 2018
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Forecast
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Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2018:
Easter: Shift from April to March (also affects Q1/Q2)
Election Day 11/6: Likely low room demand the night before
Halloween: Shift from TUE to WED, likely impacting full week
Notable Market Level Events / Comps:
Super Bowl: From Houston To Minneapolis
San Francisco: Moscone Center Reopened, easy comps Q2/Q3
Washington, D.C.: Inauguration & Women’s March (January 2017)
Houston: Hurricane Harvey – October and all of Q4 2017
Florida: Hurricane Irma – October and all of Q4 2017
California: Wildfires in Q4 2017
Key Factors Going into 2018
As the economy goes, so goes the hotel industry
Eyes on interest-rate lifts, weakening dollar
Moderating new construction levels
Demand growth should compensate for tough 3rd & 4th quarter comps
Rate growth will continue, but it won’t be impressive
Can’t forecast a black-swan event
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)2017A – 2019F
Outlook
2017Actual
2018Forecast
2019Forecast
Supply 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%
Demand 2.7% 2.3% 2.0%
Occupancy 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
ADR 2.1% 2.4% 2.3%
RevPAR 3.0% 2.7% 2.4%
Source: STR
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ADR Growth Balances out Negative Occ Growth
STR Lee County Forecast
2018Forecast
% Change
Occupancy 69.9% -2.5%
ADR $155 2.6%
RevPAR $108 0.0%
Questions?
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© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.