Left Out, Left Behind: How the Workforce Training Gap Impacts the Latino

Population in Los Angeles and Orange Counties

Encina Advisors, LLC

Based on research from Encina Advisors

2013

Introduction

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Earlier this year, Corinthian Colleges, Inc. released a report, Left Out, Left Behind: California’s Widening Workforce Training Gap, which documented the growing impact of budget cuts and overcrowding at the state’s community colleges on individuals, employers and the state economy.

The report found that these cuts have expanded the skills training gap and created a significant barrier to California’s economic growth. The state’s economy is creating good jobs in growing fields such as management, healthcare and the service industry, but its community colleges system cannot produce nearly enough graduates with the skills necessary to fill them.

Left Out, Left Behind reported that demand for a community college education in California currently exceeds capacity by 591,000 full-time students. Over the next ten years, almost 2.5 million Californians will be turned away from the state’s community colleges, denying them the opportunity to develop the professional skills they need to qualify for high-paying jobs. As a result, businesses will be unable to find enough qualified candidates for existing job vacancies and California’s economic recovery will suffer.

Left Out, Left Behind also revealed a related and troubling trend: California’s Latino community is likely to be affected disproportionately by budget cuts and overcrowding in community college classrooms. That is the focus of Left Out, Left Behind: How the Workforce Training Gap Impacts the Latino Population in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

This new study examines the impact of the workforce training gap on California’s Latino community statewide and takes a closer look at the situation in Los Angeles and Orange counties. The report – based on research by Encina Advisors, one of the state’s most respected economic consulting firms, and commissioned by Corinthian Colleges, Inc. – finds that Latinos suffer significant educational and economic losses.

As California’s Latino community continues to grow, its contributions to California’s economy are becoming more significant. This year, California’s Latino and white populations are estimated to reach parity, with each comprising about 39 percent of the state’s population. Between 2008 and 2019, demand for a community college education among California Latinos will grow by more than 28 percent. All Californians will benefit if the State makes career education available to all who want it.

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ExecutiveSummary

n The workforce training gap, a barrier to economic growth for all Californians, is more acute for Latinos than any other group. Between 2008-2019, demand for a community college education among Latinos will increase by more than 28 percent, while it will decline among whites and African Americans. Based on projections for 2012-2022, a severe shortage of seats in community college classrooms means that about 840,000 Latinos will not get the career education they want. The resulting loss of job skills and professional opportunities will cost them more than $17.8 billion in foregone personal income.

n In Los Angeles and Orange counties, Latino enrollment at community colleges is increasing. Between 2007 and 2012, Latino enrollment in Los Angeles County’s community colleges increased from 38.3 percent of the total to 46.3 percent. Latino enrollment in Orange County’s community colleges leaped more than 10 percentage points, from 25.1 percent to 35.8 percent.

n In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the demand for career training and education opportunities among Latinos already exceeds supply. Projections suggest that the Latino training gap will affect almost 43,000 full-time students in 2012-13 in these counties. Cumulatively, over the next 10 years about 378,000 Latinos in Los Angeles County and 33,700 Latinos in Orange County who would like to attend community college will be unable to do so.

n Because they will not get the career education they want, Latinos in Los Angeles and Orange County will suffer economically. Over the next 10 years, a lack of vocational education and professional skills will cost Latinos in Los Angeles County about $8 billion in foregone personal income. Latinos in Orange County face potential cumulative income losses of $822 million. This skills training gap will keep the unemployment rate unnecessarily high and curb longer-term financial prosperity for Latinos. These restraints will also make it difficult for Latinos to reach economic parity with other groups.

n Recommendation: Community colleges should work with private career colleges to bridge the gap for Latinos in California. Local community college campuses should join with private career colleges to develop inclusive plans to meet the needs of all students. And the California legislature should support and encourage innovative ways to address the state’s workforce training gap before it becomes a greater crisis for Latinos and for all Californians.

The skills training gap represents a barrier to economic growth for all Californians, but is more acute for Latinos and could crowd out more than 840,000 Latinos from community colleges during the next decade.

Educational attainment among young Latinos in California has progressed significantly over the past few years, as record numbers of Latinos have enrolled in college. That growth is likely to continue. Over a 10-year period starting in 2008, the demand for a community college education is projected to grow by 28.5 percent among Latinos. By contrast, demand is projected to fall by 5.8 percent among whites and 5.1 percent among African Americans. Demand is projected to grow 11.5 percent among Native Americans and 9.6 percent among Asians.

n A large body of evidence indicates that individuals increase their annual income by thousands of dollars for each year of college attended. And statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor demonstrate a clear correlation between each year of increased education and decreases in unemployment rates.

n According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the unemployment rate among Latinos historically runs several points higher than the general unemployment rate. Employed Latinos are less likely to hold a college degree than either whites or African Americans; only about one in six employed Latinos above the age of 25 holds a college degree.

n Over the next decade, 2.45 million Californians of all ethnicities will be crowded out of community college programs that lead to career-oriented degrees, diplomas and professional certificates. A lack of professional skills will limit California workers entry into many high-paying jobs and result in a loss of $52.2 billion in forgone personal income.

n The Latino population is disproportionately impacted by the state’s workforce skills training gap, and is at greater risk of being “left out and left behind.” Over the next decade, some 840,000 Latinos are projected to be crowded out of community college programs that lead to career-oriented degrees, diplomas and professional certificates. Their lack of career skills will limit Latinos entry into many high-paying jobs and result in a loss of $17.8 billion in foregone personal income.

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Los Angeles County

SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, “Current Population Survey, 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, PINC-04,” http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032011/perinc/new04_001.htm, accessed September 20, 2012; Encina Advisors, LLC

Los Angeles Region Latinos Crowded Out of Community College

As the Latino population grows in Los Angeles County, the demand for a community college education has continued to increase. Statistics show that Latinos are more likely to enroll in community college than other ethnic groups. However, nearly 400,000 Latinos will be crowded out of Los Angeles County community colleges over the decade:

n Los Angeles County, home to 9.9 million people, is the state’s most populous county and has the greatest concentration of Latino residents. Between 2007 and 2012, the Latino community in Los Angeles County grew from 47.0 percent of the county’s total population to 48.2 percent.

n Over the same time period, Latino enrollment in the county’s community colleges increased from 38.3 to 46.3 percent, with the large majority of these students under the age of 24.

n However, due to constrained budgets and limited capacity, Los Angeles’ 21 community colleges were not able to provide career-oriented and other postsecondary education to 38.9 percent of all county residents who attempted to enroll in 2012.

n Currently, Los Angeles County’s community colleges are unable to serve more than 83,000 Latino full-time equivalent students who want to attend.

n Projections suggest that while this Latino demand/supply gap will decrease over the next 10 years, it will still exceed 66,000 full-time students by 2021-22. Cumulatively, over the next 10 years, about 378,000 Latinos in Los Angeles County who would like to attend community college will be unable to do so.

Latino population growth in Orange County has surged over the last three decades, and the demand for community college among Latinos outpaces other groups. Over the next 10 years, capacity constraints will prevent almost 34,000 Latinos in Orange County from enrolling in community colleges:

n Orange County is home to 3.1 million Californians. Between 2007 and 2012, the Latino community in Orange County stayed relatively constant, growing from 32.8 percent of the county’s total population to 33.9 percent.

n Latino enrollment in Orange County’s community colleges over the same period leaped more than 10 percentage points, from 25.1 percent to 35.8 percent, with the large majority of these students under the age of 24.

n Orange County has nine community colleges, but budget constraints prevented them from accepting 21 percent of those who attempted to enroll in 2012.

n Currently, Orange County’s community colleges are unable to serve more than 9,800 Latino full-time equivalent students who want to attend. And while projections suggest that this Latino demand/supply gap will decrease over the next 10 years, in 2021-2022, 3,200 full time Latino students will still be crowded out.

n Cumulatively, over the next 10 years about 33,700 Latinos in Orange County who would like to attend community college will be unable to do so.

Orange County Region Latinos Crowded Out of Community College

SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, “Current Population Survey, 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, PINC-04,” http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032011/perinc/new04_001.htm, accessed September 20, 2012; Encina Advisors, LLC

83,400 82,000 80,500 78,800 77,000 75,100 73,100 70,900 68,600 66,100

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

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5,8005,000

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2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

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Over a decade, an estimated 378,000 Latinos in Los Angeles County who would like to attend community college won’t be able to do so.

Over a decade, an estimated 33,700 Latinos in Orange County who would like to attend community college won’t be able to do so.

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Capacity constraints at community colleges in Los Angeles and Orange counties will play a part in preventing their Latino communities from reaching economic parity with their peers. These constraints will also keep the Latino unemployment rate artificially high.

n The Latino community college demand/supply gap and resultant skills gap will make it harder for employers to fill available jobs, jeopardizing job growth and economic prosperity. In addition, the skills gap will make it harder for individuals to get jobs or advance in their careers, limiting family income.

n Over the next 10 years Latinos in Los Angeles County could face potential cumulative income losses of $8.0 billion.

n Similarly, over the next 10 years Latinos in Orange County could face potential cumulative income losses of $822 million.

Latinos in Los Angeles and Orange counties are more likely to suffer long-term economic consequences than other Californians due to the workforce training gap.

Community colleges should work with private career colleges to bridge the gap for Latinos in California.

n California’s higher education system, including the community colleges system, has served as a model for other states. However, budget constraints have made it impossible for the state’s community colleges to enroll every student who seeks education and vocational training.

n It is incumbent upon our institutions of higher learning to serve all students, including Latinos. If California’s community colleges do not have the capacity to educate students who seek greater employment opportunities, local community college campuses should join with private career colleges to develop inclusive plans to meet the needs of all students.

Recommendations

Corinthian Colleges, Inc. operates seven career colleges in Los Angeles County and two colleges in Orange County. These campuses help prepare students for today’s workplace and can help to provide career education to every student who would benefit.

Corinthian is proud of its graduates and their impact on their local communities:

n In 2012, 3,368 people graduated from Corinthian in Los Angeles County in a variety of programs. In the five years from 2008 to 2012, Corinthian graduates contributed an additional $153 million cumulatively to the Los Angeles County economy as a result of their education and employment.

n In 2012, 701 people graduated from Corinthian in Orange County. In the five years from 2008 to 2012, Corinthian graduates contributed an additional $19 million cumulatively to the Orange County economy as a result of their education and employment.

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Many of the observations in the study are based on research by Encina Advisors, LLC, one of California’s most respected economic consulting firms. Corinthian Colleges, Inc. (CCi) funded the Encina research. CCi offers diploma and degree programs that prepare students for careers in demand or for advancement in their chosen field. With 23 campuses in California, CCi is committed to working with the employer community and policymakers to help “bridge the gap.”

For more information, please contact:

Kent Jenkins Jr.Vice President, Public Affairs CommunicationsCorinthian Colleges Inc.401 9th Street NWSuite 620Washington, DC 20004202.682.9494 (office)202.255.7142 (cell)

To download an electronic report: www.mycareercounts.org

Postscript