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LEGER MARKETING/TVA, GLOBE AND MAIL AND LE DEVOIR QUEBEC SURVEY

DAY 1 : The ADQ would be the next majority government.

DAY 2 : 60% of Quebeckers are dissatisfied with Jean Charest’s performance.

PRESS RELEASE Publishing Date : September 5 – 6 2002

Methodology This study was conducted by Leger Marketing through telephone interviews among a representative sample of 1010 Quebeckers between August 27 and September 1, 2002. The maximum margin of error obtained for a sample of this size is ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Using data from Statistics Canada, the results were weighted according to geographic location, gender and language spoken at home to ensure a sample representative of the entire Quebec adult population.


DAY 1 ADQ has an 11 point lead over the PLQ Still riding the crest, the ADQ garnered 40% of the votes, beating the Liberal Party by 11 points and the PQ by 15 points after the distribution of undecided voters. The Liberal Party, who received the lowest share ever (32% in January 1995 versus 29% in August 2002), was the biggest loser dropping 6 points among francophone voters and 7 with non-francophone voters. This benefited the ADQ who gained 9 points among francophones and 6 among non-francophones. The Liberals’ popularity dropped the most (14 points) among 25-34 year olds, and also among those aged 65 and older (7 points), who for their part were 9% more likely to vote ADQ compared to the previous year. It should be highlighted that the Liberal Party was leading strongly last February when it garnered 45% of intended votes. At that time the Parti Quebecois received 38% and the ADQ 11%. Given that there are now three parties on the Quebec political map, Leger Marketing has distributed the undecided voters in proportion to voting intentions. For the purpose of this study on Quebec voting intentions, the distribution of undecided voters will be as follows : 34% to the ADQ , 24% to the PLQ and 21% to the PQ.

Table 1 - Evolution of ADQ Voting Intentions

10% 11% 12%

32%

40%37%

46%

13%14%

11%

09-2001 12-2001 02-2002 05-2002 08-2002

ADQ Supporters ADQ Francophone Supporters


Table 2 – VOTING INTENTIONS IN QUEBEC Question : If provincial elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? (Respondents without an opinion were asked the following

question) : Even if you have not made up your mind yet, for which political party would you be most likely to vote if a provincial election were held today?

Before Distribution

n=1010 After Distribution

n=854 Francophones Non-

francophones ADQ 34% 40% 46% 17% PLQ 24% 29% 20% 69% PQ 21% 25% 29% 10% Other 4% 5% 5% 3% Wouldn’t vote 5% - - - Would spoil ballot 2% - - - Don’t know 5% - - - Refusal 4% - - -

AFTER DISTRIBUTION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS Mar. 2001 May 2001 Sept. 2001 Oct. 2001 Dec. 2001 Feb. 02 May 02 Aug. 02

ADQ 18,2% 10,4% 9,6% 11,3% 10,6% 11,5% 32% 40% PLQ 37,2% 45,7% 46,3% 48,1% 43,9% 44,8% 35% 29% PQ 41,6% 38,9% 41,4% 34,7% 36,9% 38% 26% 25%

Other 3,0% 4,9% 2,6% 5,9% 8,6% 5,6% 7% 5% The main reason given by ADQ supporters to justify their choice was dissatisfaction with the other two parties (55%). This represents a 40% increase with ADQ supporters since the Leger Marketing poll conducted last June when only 15% listed this as their reason. At the time, 35% of ADQ supporters were looking for change.

Table 3 – Reasons for voting ADQ Question : What would be the main reason that would make you choose the Action

Democratique du Quebec (ADQ)?

ADQ Supporters n=365

Dissatisfaction with the other two parties 55% Because of the leader (Mario Dumont) 22% Because of the ADQ’s program 17% Other 6% Don’t know/Refusal 1%


Satisfaction with the government remains higher than the percentage ready to vote PQ The PQ government ’s satisfaction rating seems a little rocky at 38%, although this in turn is 13% higher than Quebeckers’ intention to vote PQ. The 60% dissatisfaction rating is the highest ever obtained by a Bernard Landry government. However, 8 out every 10 PQ supporters (80%) say they are satisfied with the government.

Table 4 – SATISFACTION TOWARDS THE GOVERNMENT OF QUEBEC Question : Would you say you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with

the provincial government of the Parti Quebecois? n=1010

40%38%

50%48%

50%47%

54%

48% 42%39%

53% 52% 53% 50%

59%

50%

25%26%

38%37%35%

41%39%

42%

'03-01 '05-01 '09-01 '10-01 '12-01 '02-02 '05-02 '08-02

Satisfied Satis. Francophones PQ Voting Intentions


The majority of Quebeckers are not very concerned with the issue of Quebec sovereignty Support for Quebec sovereignty has come tumbling down with 61% of Quebeckers opposing this option and 33% still supporting it. In May 2002, 48% of francophones and 82% of PQ supporters were in favour of sovereignty combined with an economic and political partnership with the rest of Canada. However, in this poll, which did not mention any kind of partnership, only 39% of francophones and 67 % of PQ supporters favoured the option.

Table 5 – INTENTION TO VOTE FOR SOVEREIGNTY Question : Would you be more likely to vote FOR or AGAINST Quebec sovereignty?

n=1010

Quebec Francophones Non-francophones For 33% 39% 9%

Against 61% 56% 84%

Dnk/Refusal 6% 5% 7% Note : Since the question concerning sovereignty has been changed, no comparison with previous polls is possible this month.

For the first time, 59% of Quebeckers would like to go to the polls this Fall A great majority of Quebeckers (59%) would like to see the provincial elections held this Autumn. This includes 70% of Liberals and 72% of ADQ supporters. However, a majority of PQ supporters (56%) would like to see them held later.

Table 6 – GENERAL ELECTIONS Question : Would you like the provincial elections to be held in the Fall?

n=1010

Population as a

whole PLQ ADQ PQ

Yes 59% 70% 72% 39% No 36% 27% 25% 56% Dnk/Refusal 5% 3% 3% 5%


DAY 2 Mario Dumont leads in popularity 43% of Quebeckers think Mario Dumont would make a better Premier than either Bernard Landry or Jean Chariest who were neck and neck with 20% in their favour. Dumont has the support of 48% of francophones, while francophone support for Bernard Landry remains stable at 23%. However, the situation is not very rosy for Jean Charest who has dropped by 2 points among francophones, 11 points among non-francophones, and 5 points among liberal supporters.

Table 7 – SUPPORT TOWARDS PARTY LEADERS Question : In your opinion, who would make the best Premier of Quebec from among the

following… ? n=1010

Population as a

whole Francophones Non-

francophones Mario Dumont 43% 48% 19% Bernard Landry 20% 23% 11% Jean Charest 20% 14% 44% None 9% 8% 14% Dnk/Refusal 8% 7% 12%

Half of francophones would like to see an ADQ government 46% of Quebeckers would like to see the ADQ head the next government. However, with only a 2-point spread between those in favour (46%) and those against (44%), the gap between the two is considerably narrower than it was last June when it stood at 10 points. In fact, a smaller proportion of francophones (51% compared to 58% last June) would like to see an ADQ government. Following this same trend, support for an ADQ government has dropped from 39% to 27% among PQ supporters. However, support for a government headed by ADQ among non-francophones (29%) has risen by 9 points.


Table 8 – ADQ SUPPORT Question : Would you like the Action Démocratique du Quebec to form the next government ?

n=1010

Total Franc. Non-franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Yes 46% 51% 29% 17% 27% 90% 29% No 44% 41% 54% 71% 66% 9% 57% Dnk/Refusal 10% 8% 17% 11% 7% 1% 14%

Interestingly enough, if none of the three parties obtained a majority of seats in the next provincial elections, 41% of Quebeckers would prefer an ADQ-PQ alliance leading the province. This would be the alliance of choice for 64% of PQ supporters and 53% of ADQ supporters. A PLQ-ADQ was favoured by 37% of Quebeckers and 62% of Liberals. A PQ-PLQ alliance only received 11%. 6 out of 10 Quebeckers are dissatisfied with Jean Charest’s performance but almost half (49%) would like him to remain as leader of the Liberal Party 60% of Quebeckers say they are dissatisfied with Jean Charest’s performance as leader of the official opposition and only 32% claim to be satisfied. A strong majority of francophones (62%) and a majority of non-francophones (48%) say they are dissatisfied. However, 57% of Liberals think the opposite. Paradoxically, although they are dissatisfied, 49% of Quebeckers would like Jean Charest to remain as leader of the Liberal Party. This number rises to 70% among Liberals.

Table 9 – SATISFACTION TOWARD JEAN CHAREST Question : Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Jean Charest’s performance as leader of the

official opposition ? n=1010

Total Franco. Non franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Satisfied 32% 29% 41% 57% 26% 21% 20% Dissatisfied 60% 62% 48% 36% 70% 72% 72% Dnk/Refusal 8% 9% 11% 7% 4% 7% 8%

Would you like Jean Charest to remain as leader of the Liberal Party or would you like him to resign before the next election? n=1010

Remain 49% 46% 58% 70% 45% 41% 34% Resign 40% 41% 32% 25% 44% 49% 55% Dnk/Refusal 11% 13% 10% 5% 11% 10% 11%


If Jean Charest were to resign, his most popular replacements would be Lisa Frula (17%), followed by Pierre Pettigrew and Pierre Paradis both with 14% and Martin Cauchon with 8%. If 20% of francophones opted for Lisa Frula, non-francophones (16%) and Liberals (15%) chose Pierre Pettigrew. It should be highlighted than 27% of Quebeckers and 33% of Liberals were unable to form an opinion as to an eventual replacement.

Table 10 – JEAN CHAREST’S REPLACEMENT Question : If Jean Charest were to resign which of the following political figures would make

the best leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec. Would it be…? n=1010

Total Franc. Non- franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Lisa Frula 17% 20% 3% 12% 19% 22% 28% Pierre Pettigrew 14% 14% 16% 15% 12% 16% 21% Pierre Paradis 14% 15% 9% 12% 15% 17% 12% Martin Cauchon 8% 8% 4% 10% 4% 9% 5% Nathalie Normandeau

5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 2%

Jean-Marc Fournier 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 1% - Other 1% 1% 11% 3% 1% 7% 8% None 10% 1% 2% 4% 16% 1% 3% Dnk/Refusal 28% 24% 45% 34% 22% 23% 22%

Quebeckers are more satisfied with Bernard Landry than they are with the PQ and over half of francophones would like to see him remain as Premier Bernard Landry is more popular than his party with 40% of Quebeckers satisfied with his performance as Premier of Quebec in comparison to 56% who are dissatisfied. Three quarters of PQ supporters (76%) and 42% of francophones think Bernard Landry’s performance as Premier is satisfactory. Nearly half the population (49%), 52% of francophones and 75% of PQ supporters would like Bernard Landry to remain as leader of the Parti Quebecois until the next general elections.


Table 11 – SATISFACTION TOWARD BERNARD LANDRY

Question : Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Bernard Landry’s performance as Premier of Quebec ? n=1010

Total Franc. Non- franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Satisfied 40% 42% 33% 32% 76% 28% 40% Dissatisfied 56% 55% 61% 64% 23% 70% 55% Dnk/Refusal 4% 3% 6% 4% 1% 2% 5%

Would you like Bernard Landry to remain as leader of the Parti Quebecois or would you like him to resign before the next elections ? n=1010

Remain 49% 52% 38% 37% 75% 47% 42% Resign 45% 43% 54% 57% 20% 51% 54% Dnk/Refusal 6% 5% 8% 6% 5% 2% 4%

Should Bernard Landry resign before the next elections, Pauline Marois would be his most popular replacement with 34% overall support, 38% among francophones and 44% among PQ voters.

Table 12 – BERNARD LANDRY’S REPLACEMENT Question : If Bernard Landry were to resign, which of the following political figures would

make the best leader of the Parti Quebecois? n=1010

Total Franco. Non franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Pauline Marois 34% 38% 16% 28% 44% 37% 29% Gilles Duceppe 16% 16% 16% 17% 14% 18% 13% François Legault 14% 14% 12% 11% 17% 17% 14% André Boisclair 8% 9% 4% 8% 9% 9% 15% Diane Lemieux 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 4% 12% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% None 8% 7% 13% 8% 3% 7% 7% Dnk/Refusal 14% 10% 33% 21% 9% 7% 6%


Infatuation with Mario Dumont continues with 80% of Quebeckers satisfied with his performance The leader of the ADQ proved to be the most popular with nearly twice as many nods as Bernard Landry and nearly three times as many as Jean Charest. In fact, 8 out of 10 Quebeckers say they are satisfied with Mario Dumont’s performance in the opposition. 84% of these were francophones, 61% non-francophones and a large number of voters from all three political parties.

Table 13 – SATISFACTION TOWARD MARIO DUMONT Question : Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Mario Dumont’s performance within the

opposition? n=1010

Total Franco. Non franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other Satisfied 80% 84% 61% 69% 80% 95% 60% Dissatisfied 11% 9% 18% 17% 11% 3% 31% Dnk/Refusal 9% 7% 21% 14% 9% 2% 9%

According to 40% of Quebeckers, Mario Dumont’s main quality is that he is a new generation of politician, he is close to the people (21%) and honest (15%).

Table 14 – MARIO DUMONT’S MAIN QUALITY Question : What do you think is Mario Dumont’s main quality? Is it…?

n=1010

Total He’s a politician for a new generation 40% Close to the people 21% Honest 15% A clear vision of the future 10% Competent 3% Other 2% None 4% Dnk/refusal 4%


Although the majority of Quebeckers do not believe Mario Dumont has a strong enough team to govern, 67% think an ADQ government would represent a positive change When questioned about the strength of Mario Dumont’s team, 61% of Quebeckers did not think it was strong enough to govern. In fact, more than half of ADQ supporters (53%) shared this view. However, 71% of the electorate feels that a Mario Dumont government could not do worse than the others. 64% of Liberals and 59% of PQ supporters agreed with this view. Nonetheless, 67% of Quebeckers and 52% of Liberal and Parti Quebecois supporters felt the ADQ could be a positive change for Quebec. It should be highlighted that last May, 60% of Quebeckers associated change with the ADQ. Although opinions concerning the ADQ’s constitutional status were mixed, 54% of Quebeckers now believe that the ADQ is not too right-wing.

Table 15 – THE ADQ Question : No matter for whom you intend to vote, please tell me if you agree or disagree with

the following statements : n=1010

Total Franc. Non-franc PLQ PQ ADQ Other

Mario Dumont ‘s team is not strong enough to govern n=1010 Agree 61% 62% 55% 65% 69% 53% 68% Disagree 31% 31% 29% 21% 24% 45% 25% Dnk/Refusal 8% 7% 16% 14% 7% 2% 7%

A Mario Dumont government couldn’t do any worse than any other n=1010 Agree 71% 75% 57% 64% 59% 87% 63% Disagree 24% 22% 33% 29% 36% 12% 33% Dnk/Refusal 5% 3% 10% 6% 5% 1% 4%

The ADQ could be a positive change for Quebec n=1010 Agree 67% 71% 51% 52% 52% 95% 59% Disagree 25% 23% 35% 35% 41% 4% 38% Dnk/Refusal 8% 6% 14% 13% 6% 1% 3%

The ADQ is too right-wing n=1010 Agree 28% 26% 34% 39% 35% 13% 40% Disagree 54% 57% 39% 39% 48% 74% 40% Dnk/Refusal 18% 17% 27% 22% 17% 13% 20%


Things look bleak for the Liberal Party and its leader Things are looking bad for the Liberal Party of Quebec with 70% of Quebeckers stating that the PLQ does not represent change. Only the Liberals (61%) felt it was the party representing change. Even though the Liberal Party claims to be the party for the regions, more than 6 out of 10 Quebeckers (63%) do not feel that the PLQ is the party that is most concerned with the regions. More than two thirds (67%) of francophones and 47% of non-francophones share this view. Things look more grim for its leader, Jean Charest who has not been able to assert himself as leader of the Liberal Party among nearly three quarters of Quebeckers, 74% of francophones, 60% of non-francophones and 61% of PLQ supporters. Despite the fact that the Liberal Party has always been known as party for prosperous times, more than one Quebecker out of two (58%) do not feel that the Liberal Party could improve Quebec’s economy even further. However, 80% of Liberals felt otherwise.

Table 16 – PLQ Question : No matter for whom you intend to vote, please tell me if you agree or disagree with


Total Franc. Non-franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other

The Liberal Party of Quebec is the party that represents change n=1010 Agree 26% 21% 46% 61% 15% 10% 9% Disagree 70% 76% 47% 36% 80% 89% 87% Dnk/Refusal 4% 3% 7% 3% 5% 1% 4%

The Liberal Party of Quebec is the one that is most concerned with the regions n=1010 Agree 28% 23% 47% 61% 20% 15% 14% Disagree 63% 67% 43% 29% 71% 81% 80% Dnk/Refusal 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 4% 6%

Jean Charest has not succeeded in asserting himself as the leader of the Liberal Party n=1010 Agree 72% 74% 60% 61% 78% 79% 71% Disagree 24% 22% 33% 35% 20% 19% 27% Dnk/Refusal 4% 4% 7% 4% 2% 2% 2%

A Liberal Party would improve the Quebec economy more n=1010 Agree 35% 28% 64% 80% 23% 17% 17% Disagree 58% 66% 23% 14% 71% 78% 81% Dnk/Refusal 5% 6% 13% 6% 6% 5% 2%


Most Quebeckers recognise the PQ’s courage in bringing about reforms, but they feel it is too divided to govern 68% of Quebeckers feel there is a lack of cohesion within the PQ and that it is too divided to govern. Only 59% of PQ supporters do not share this opinion. In fact, 62% felt the PQ had been around long enough. With the sovereignty option at its lowest point, 65% of Quebeckers feel the PQ should promise not to hold any more referendum. Even PQ supporters are divided on the subject with 47% being against any more referendums and 50% who would still consider one. However, the Parti Quebecois is perceived as having had the courage to carry out reforms by 68% of Quebeckers. This view is shared by a majority of francophones and non-francophones and by the supporters of the other political parties.

Table 17– PQ Question : No matter for whom you intend to vote, please tell me if you agree or disagree with


Total Franc. Non-franc. PLQ PQ ADQ Other

The Parti Quebecois is too divided to govern n=1010 Agree 68% 66% 77% 81% 36% 81% 76% Disagree 28% 30% 18% 17% 59% 17% 24% Dnk/Refusal 4% 4% 5% 2% 5% 2% -

The Parti Quebecois had the courage to carry out reforms n=1010 Agree 68% 72% 51% 58% 85% 70% 48% Disagree 27% 23% 42% 34% 11% 27% 48% Dnk/Refusal 5% 5% 7% 8% 4% 3% 4%

The Parti Quebecois should promise not to hold any more referendums on sovereignty n=1010 Agree 65% 61% 81% 81% 47% 68% 54% Disagree 31% 35% 12% 14% 50% 31% 36% Dnk/Refusal 4% 4% 7% 5% 3% 1% 10%

The Parti Quebecois has been around long enough n=1010 Agree 62% 59% 76% 83% 24% 74% 64% Disagree 34% 38% 19% 15% 72% 25% 35% Dnk/Refusal 4% 3% 5% 2% 4% 1% 1%

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