lesotho national covid-19 situation and mitigation measures...lesotho national covid-19 situation...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lesotho National COVID-19 situation and Mitigation
Measures
The Right Honourable the Prime Minister, Dr MoeketsiMajoro’s National Address
1st January 2021
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Movements in COVID-19 outbreak in the population
D
I = 3,206
R= 1,496
Popn ≈ 2,007,201
D = 65
112
S = 2,003,995
16Susceptible population after 3,206 infectionsand 1,496 recoveries
Lesotho Population
Cumulative Infections
Cumulative Recoveries
Cumulative Deaths
236
New Infections (47.5%)
New Tests: 01 January 2021 Cumulative Cases: 01 January 2021
Tests + cases
33,345 3,206
Recoveries
1,496
Deaths
65
Cumulative positive rate
(9.6%)
Recovery rate
(46.7%)
CFR(2.03%)
New Recoveries(0.5%)
New Deaths(14)
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Weekly new cases (N=2869 confirmed cases)Based on the available data
1 1 0 2 0 8 14 65 93175
87256
40161 112 70 92 150 97 141 117 102 108 30 10 61 36 36 68 25 97 128
454
110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
350010
-16.
05.2
02
0
17-2
3.05
.20
20
24-3
0.05
.20
20
31-0
6.06
.20
20
07-1
3.06
.20
20
14-2
0.06
.20
20
21-2
7.06
.20
20
28-0
4.07
.20
20
05-1
1.07
.20
20
12-1
8.07
.20
20
19-2
5.07
.20
20
26-0
1.08
.20
20
02-0
8.08
.20
20
09-1
5.08
.20
20
16-2
2.08
.20
20
23-2
9.08
.20
20
30-0
5.09
.20
20
06-1
2.09
.20
20
13-1
9.09
.20
20
20-2
6.09
.20
20
27-0
3.10
.20
20
04-1
0.10
.20
20
11-1
7.10
.20
20
18-2
4.10
.20
20
25-3
1.10
.20
20
01-0
7.11
.20
20
08-1
4.11
.20
20
15-2
1.11
.20
20
22-2
8.11
.20
20
29-0
5.12
.20
20
06-1
2.12
.20
20
13-1
9.12
.20
20
20-2
6.12
.20
20
27-0
2.01
.20
21
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Nu
mb
er o
f ca
ses
Epidemiologic week
Confirmed cases
Cumilative cases
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Weekly mean cases (N=2858 confirmed cases)Based on the available data
0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,0 1,1 2,0
9,3
15,0
25,0
12,4
36,6
5,7
23,0
16,0
10,013,1
21,4
13,9
20,116,7
14,6 15,4
4,31,4
8,75,1 5,1
9,7
3,6
13,1 12,9
64,9
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
10-1
6.05
.202
0
17-2
3.05
.202
0
24-3
0.05
.202
0
31-0
6.06
.202
0
07-1
3.06
.202
0
14-2
0.06
.202
0
21-2
7.06
.202
0
28-0
4.07
.202
0
05-1
1.07
.202
0
12-1
8.07
.202
0
19-2
5.07
.202
0
26-0
1.08
.202
0
02-0
8.08
.202
0
09-1
5.08
.202
0
16-2
2.08
.202
0
23-2
9.08
.202
0
30-0
5.09
.202
0
06-1
2.09
.202
0
13-1
9.09
.202
0
20-2
6.09
.202
0
27-0
3.10
.202
0
04-1
0.10
.202
0
11-1
7.10
.202
0
18-2
4.10
.202
0
25-3
1.10
.202
0
01-0
7.11
.202
0
08-1
4.11
.202
0
15-2
1.11
.202
0
22-2
8.11
.202
0
29-0
5.12
.202
0
06-1
2.12
.202
0
13-1
9.12
.202
0
20-2
6.12
.202
0
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Mea
n c
ase
per
wee
k
Epidemiologic week
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Lesotho Epidemiological Update | Weekly Positivity
21%
6% 5%3%
14%17%
7%
25%
18%
7% 6%8%
4% 3%
8%
3%6% 5%
9%
17%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
End
8 A
ug
End
14
Au
g
End
22
Au
g
End
29
Au
g
End
5 Sep
End
12
Sep
End
19
Sep
End
26
Sep
End
03
Oct
End
10
Oct
End
17
Oct
End
24
Oct
End
31
Oct
End
07
No
v
End
14
No
v
End
21
No
v
End
28
No
v
End
5 D
ec
End
12
Dec
End
19
Dec
End
26
Dec
Posi
tivt
y (%
)
Weeks
PositivityCountry Moves to Purple on the 24th
August 2020Country Moves to Blue on the 22nd
November 2020
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Lesotho Epidemiological Update | Deaths per week
5
3
4
10
2
5
0
1
2
0
2
4
3
0
1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12
July - 1
8 Ju
ly
19
July - 2
5 Ju
ly
26
July - 1
Au
g
2 A
ug - 8
Au
g
9 A
ug - 1
4 A
ug
15
Au
g - 22
Au
g
23
Au
g - 29
Au
g
30
Au
g - 5 Se
p
6 Se
p - 1
2 Se
p
13
Sep - 1
9 Sep
20
Sep - 2
6 Sep
27
Sep - 0
3 O
ct
04
Oct - 1
0 O
ct
11
Oct - 1
7 O
ct
18
Oct - 2
4 O
ct
25
Oct - 3
1 O
ct
1 N
ov - 7
No
v
8 N
ov - 1
4 N
ov
15
No
v - 21
No
v
22
No
v - 28
No
v
29
No
v - 05
De
c
06
Dec - 1
2 D
ec
13
No
v - 19
De
c
20
Dec - 2
6 D
ec
NU
mb
er o
f d
eath
s p
er w
eek
Epidemiological Week (Sunday - Saturday)
Total Number of Deaths Per Week
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New data on deaths
District Confirmed
Maseru 4
Mafeteng 3
Mokhotlong 4 (probable)
Berea 3
TOTAL 14
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Distribution of cases per districts (N=2895 confirmed cases)Based on the available data
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Distribution of cases per Age group (N=2895 confirmed cases)Based on the available data
37 29
103
174
301
404
450
396
299
198
144
108
6548 53
86
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 5 6 10 11 15 16 20 21 25 26 30 31 35 36 40 41 45 46 50 51 55 56 60 61 65 66 70 >70 Unknown
Nu
mb
er o
f ca
ses
Age cat
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Weekly Change: Cases by Age group
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Weekly new cases among travellers (N=1088 confirmed cases)Based on the available data
2 0 030 20
7132 33 47 30 49
82 93 74 480 0 0 1 1 3 2 23
61
337
49
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
05-1
1.0
7.2
020
12-1
8.0
7.2
020
19-2
5.0
7.2
020
26-0
1.0
8.2
020
02-0
8.0
8.2
020
09-1
5.0
8.2
020
16-2
2.0
8.2
020
23-2
9.0
8.2
020
30-0
5.0
9.2
020
06-1
2.0
9.2
020
13-1
9.0
9.2
020
20-2
6.0
9.2
020
27-0
3.1
0.2
020
04-1
0.1
0.2
020
11-1
7.1
0.2
020
18-2
4.1
0.2
020
25-3
1.1
0.2
020
01-0
7.1
1.2
020
08-1
4.1
1.2
020
15-2
1.1
1.2
020
22-2
8.1
1.2
020
29-0
5.1
2.2
020
06-1
2.1
2.2
020
13-1
9.1
2.2
020
20-2
6.1
2.2
020
27-0
2.0
1.2
021
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Nu
mb
er
of
sam
ple
s te
ste
d
Epidemiologic week
Confirmed
Cumulative
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Monthly Attack rates (based on the notifications)
0,11,3
28,6
24,9
28,1
15,3
9,2
46,4
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
May June July August September October November December
Nu
mb
er
of
case
s p
er
10
0,0
00
po
pu
lati
on
Month
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Key findings *•The positivity rate of samples has been increasing and remained
higher than 5% in the last three weeks (from 9% on the week ending 12 Dec to 17% on the week ending 19 Dec to 12% on the week ending 26 Dec)
•The number of cases/100,000 population in December monthly attack rate show that the risk of getting COVID-19 has increased to 46.4% compared to November and October with 9.2% and 15.3%, respectively
•Experiencing more than 2 confirmed deaths weekly for the last two weeks after consecutive seven weeks of 0 deaths
* Based on the WHO public health criteria to adjust public health and social measures in the context of COVID 19: Annex to Considerations in adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, 12 May 2020
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Key findings *•Number of infections among the young people has rapidly increased
ranging from 12% for age group 21-25 to 14% on age group 16-20, and 33% on age group 11-15.
•Number of positive cases from the in-bound travelers increased drastically in the past four weeks (from 2 to 337)
•R0 is not being calculated as epidemiologically is no longer suitable to inform the trend of the pandemic, rather the positivity rate is the key determinant of the trend and level of risk and threat of the pandemic
* Based on the WHO public health criteria to adjust public health and social measures in the context of COVID 19: Annex to Considerations in adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, 12 May 2020
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Key findings *
•The rapid increasing transmission of the virus and positivity in the country is attributed to: Declined compliance to Covid-19 health prevention protocols especially
adherence to wearing of masks and physical distancing at social and economic activities and gatherings in particular entertainment events, bars, schools, work-place and public transport
Clusters of infections at schools, among the inbound travelers and at work place posing risk of increasing transmission of infections in the communities during festive season
Weak enforcement of compliance to prevention protocols in all sectors of society
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Recommendations• According to the epidemiological analysis, reinforcing the public health is
recommended to break the transmission cycle and contain the cluster of cases to limit wide spread transmission
• Security Cluster and Community Leaders must enforce compliance to Covid-19 health prevention protocols
• To implement stricter restrictions on the super-spreader movements and economic and social activities by moving the country from the current Blue to Purple colour coding stage of the Risk Determination Framework Mitigation measures in order to reduce the virus infection spread
• The restrictions in the Purple to be implemented for the 14 days starting from midnight of Sunday 03 January 2021
• Below are the Purple colour coding stage mitigation measures to implement and adhere to
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