lesson 5 planning and scheduling
TRANSCRIPT
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Lesson 5: Project planning andscheduling
Lesson 5: Project planning andscheduling
Coverage:
Project planning: Process, technical tools
and common pitfalls
Project time management: estimates and
scheduling
Overview of CPM and PERT techniques
Project scheduling with resources
constraints
Project time-cost trade-off
Reading: PMBOK2000, chapters 4 and 6Case study: Nightingale A and B
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Objectives
At the end o f the sess ion, you shou ld be ab le to:
Understand the role of good project planning, and the basicplanning framework
Describe the common mistakes made in project planning
Describe and differentiate the CPM and PERT techniques inscheduling, their development, applications and limitations
Prepare a schedule for project activities, with or without
resources const raints, possibly using Excel and MS Projectsoftware
Use CPM method to analyze the time and cost trade-off
Address some scheduling problems facing task durationuncertainty
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Project planning
Planning: analytically thinking ahead and working out in details: Which goals and objectives to be achieved
Which activities to be carried out and how
Which resources will be needed and how to get and organize these resources
How to ensure the proj ect to be completed and the objectives achieved?
Why Planning:
Insure goal achievement
Improve effective utilization of resources
Help control and monitor progress
Promote communication /co-ordination
Motivate people
Get finance for project
Be prepared to address and control the risks
Failing to plan is planning to fail(PM folklore)
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Steps in project planning
Define
objectives
Define work
Organize Plan resources
SchedulePlan for
Control & risks
Detailing the
project design
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The project plan
Elements of project planning
WBS and work analysis and description specifications of
outputs and completion criteria
Organizational structure and responsibil ity assignments
Project schedule and key milestones
Budget and cost accounts disbursements and resource
mobilization plan
Performance monitoring, project control system and risk
management
Al l these elements may be summarized into a common
template
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A carelessly p lanned project will take three timeslonger than expected;
A careful ly planned project wi ll take only tw ice aslong.
(Law #7 of project management, PM folklore)
Laws of project management
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The basic project scheduling Purpose: To put the projects activities in a timeframe:
To ensure feasible implementation
To ensure fastest completion poss ible
To help in monitoring and cont rolling the implementation
Input :
The activity list (or WBS)
Acti vi ty durat ion estimate
Acti vi ty precedence relationship
Independent activiti es: can be carried out simultaneously
Precedence relationship: one can start after the other fin ishes
Assumptions: The input is known and determinist ic, and theresources are available unlimited
Output Gantt chart of activities with slacks, critical activiti es and milestones
Other schedule-related p lans (resource loading charts, personnelassignments, control schedule, etc.)
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Representation of the activi typrecedence relationship
Table format: List of predecessors (or fo llowers) for each of the
activities
Activi ty-on-node diagram: a network diagram where
Nodes represent the activities
Arrows link ing nodes represent the p recedence relat ionships
Activi ty-on-arc diagram: a network diagram where
Arrows represent the act iv it ies
Nodes (heads and tails of arrows) represent the events precedencerelationships (starts and ends of activit ies)
Some advance features available on MS Project:
Other types o f precedence relations: FF, SS, SF
Lags and leads between the succeeding activiti es
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Class example:Introducing new product to the market
Af ter R&D, a confectionary company has started theproduction of a new product line. The managementconsiders introducing the new product into market as anindependent project to emphasize the accountability.
The scope of the project inc ludes setting up the salesforces, distribution network and advertisement.Production line is not part of the project scope butpackaging the product including design of the packagesand setting up packaging facilities is.
The project w ill be cons idered as completed after thecompletion of the 10 week adverti sement campaign andwhen the packaged products are shipped to thedistribu tors, ready for sales.
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Example: WBS with precedence table
L10wM. Conduct the advertisement campaign
4w
2w
6w
6w
9w
7w
4w
6w
13w
6w
10w
2w
---E. Hire sales manager
Setting up sale
forcesEF. Hire sales personnel
FG. Train sales personnel.
EH. Select the distributors f or the new product linesSetting u p
distribution
network.
---D. Order and ship the product s from w arehouse for packaging
B, DC. Running the packaging facility
AB. Setting up packaging facility
---A. Design t he di fferent packages to be used.
Packaging.
KL. Plan the advertising campaign with the ad agency.
EK. Select advertising agency.
Adverti sement.
C, IJ. Ship the packaged products to the distri butors
G, HI. Negotiate and sign contract wi th the selected distributor s
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Example: the precedence diagram
A2 C6B10 J6
D13
H9 I6
F4 G7
E6 L4K2 M10
Start Finish
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Results of scheduling
Basic output of the CPM scheduling
Gantt chart of the activities with feasible schedule and
shortest completion time possible
Slacks available for the activities
List of critical activities
Other results:
Resource util ization schedule (or loading charts)Cost schedule
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Illustration:scheduling at a construction project
J une July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May J une J uly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar April May J une
1 100%
2
90%
3 80%
70%
4
60%
50%
5
40%
6 30%
20%
7
10%
0%
MONTHLY 0.08 0.61 0.9 2.24 2.97 3.21 4.23 6.23 5.7 8.01 8.84 7.13 8.17 8.05 5.87 5.48 4.55 4.55 4.16 2.82 2.82 2.81 0.57
ACCUMULATION 0.08 0.69 1.59 3.83 6.8 10.01 14.24 20.47 26.17 34.18 43.02 50.15 58.32 66.37 72.24 77.72 82.27 86.82 90.98 93.8 96.62 99.43 100
QC-1 ZONE PROJECT CONTROL CHART AT ITALIAN_THAI
PROGRESSION OF CONSTRUCTION WORK FOR 400 UNITS ATHLETE VILLAGES
No Description1996 1997 1998
P.C FACTORY
GROUP 1 (Building C1-C4)
Foundation work
Installation P.C panelArchitecture and systemwork
Utilities
GROUP 2 (Building A1-A3)
Foundation work
Installation P.C panelArchitecture and systemwork
UtilitiesGROUP 3 (Building C5,C6,C8,D1)
Foundation workInstallation P.C panel
Architecture and systemwork
UtilitiesGROUP 4 (Building C7-C11)
Foundation work
Installation P.C panel
Architecture and systemwork
Utilities
GROUP 5 (Building B1,B3,B4,B7)
Foundation work
Installation P.C panel
Architecture and systemwork
Utilities
GROUP 6 (Building B2,B5,B6,B8)
Foundation work
Installation P.C panel
Architecture and systemworkUtilities
PROPOSAL (%)
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Project crash scheduling
Crash scheduling is scheduling to complete the project in a shorter time thannormally expected.
Crash scheduling is a quite common reality of pro ject management, especiallywhen:
The project has a late kick-off but st ill has to race to complete in time
The project has some delays in implementation and now has to speed up tomeet the deadline.
Basic principles of crash scheduling
Consider crashing critical activities within acceptable cost
Crash gradually (step by step) until the new deadline is met, always choosethe least cost way of crashing
Review the precedence relationships of activities to see if we can relax onsome (or replacing FS with SS + lag)
Att empt to b reak the long and c ri tical activi ties in to sho rter ones to allowpossible parallel processing
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Project scheduling with resourceconstraints
Purpose: To schedule the activities so that the requiredutilization of any particular resource does not exceed itsavailability.
Guidelines:
Plot the resource loading charts for all critical resources.
When resource requirement exceeds resource availability,try to reschedule the activities, first and preferably usingavailable slacks.
If there are more than one resource needing leveling, do it
one by one. Remark: Scheduling projects with resource constraints is
best done with sof tware like MS Project
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Example of resource loading problem
Number of workers available: 10
Find the feasible schedule. What is the completion time?
Job
label
Preceding
jobs
Duration
(weeks)
Required number
of workers
A
B
C
D
E
FG
---
---
---
A
C
AB,D,E
2
6
4
3
5
42
3
5
4
2
4
26
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Project resource leveling
Resource leveling:Process of scheduling activities so that theutilization of critical resources is relatively balanced throughout the
project implementation period.
Advantages:
less hand-on management required
less waste
smooth impl ementation
Resources: can be capital, equipment, facilities, labor etc.
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Project resource leveling procedure
Carry out basic scheduling without resource constraints and
prepare the Gantt chart with all activities to be started as soon as
possible.
Prepare load diagram for each resource
Choose one specific resource (the most fluctuating, the most
expensive, or most scarce). Use the slacks to re-schedule the
activities using the resource to level its use over the project.
(Dummy resource limits might be used to impose a re-schedule ofactivities.)
Redraw the load diagram for all resources. Choose the next
resource and repeat the procedure.
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Project time estimates with uncertainties
The challenges of estimating the activities duration:
Usually involves uncertainties and inaccuracies, specially when theproject is new or less familiar
The most likely estimate may have less than 50% chance of success( a skewed distributi on)
Project completion time uncertainty is not the sum of individualactivities uncertainties.
Acti vi ties uncer taint ies may affect the cr it ical path
Problems with estimating uncertain project completion time:
In practice, people tend to overestimate in order to put in safety
80%-chance estimating
5+5=13 phenomenon
viscous circle of over-estimate
Despite the safety in the estimates, most proj ects still face delays
Delays pass on bu t advances not
Parkinsons law
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Why do plans fail?
Plans are based on insufficient data or slopp ily developed
Project goals, objectives and specifications are not
understood (or agreed upon) at all levels.
Plans are done by one and executed by another.
Plans have no provis ion for moni toring, control ling and
adjustment.
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Extra materials
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CPM and PERT: A quick historical look
Critical Path Method (CPM):
1957
Plant maintenance projects for DuPont
Emphasis on cost /time trade-off
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
1958
US Navys Polaris Missile System Program
Emphasis on uncertain time estimates
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Some limitations of CPM/PERT techniques
Major problems: Very strong (and sometimes unrealistic)assumptions are required, e.g.
Project is completely defined as a sequence of identifiable
and independent activities with known relationships
Outcomes of the project activities are known in advance
Activi ty times are independent and can be accurately
estimated
Possible solutions
GERT techniqueDiscrete event simulation
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Some special techniques
PERT Technique:
Identify the list of activit ies and the precedence relationship
Ask experts to provide th ree estimates for each act iv ity: most likely,optimist , and pessimist. Expected duration is the weighted average ofthese three estimates (with weights 4, 1, 1, corresponding to betadistribution)
Apply the basic scheduling procedure w ith these averages to calcu latethe expected completion time for t he whole project.
Sum up the variances along the critical path to get the variance of thecompletion time estimate, assuming the normal distribution.
Simulation technique:
Assess the probabil ity d is tr ibut ion for each act iv ity
Run the simulation to arrive at the distribution o f the projectcompletion time
Safety will be added only at project level
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Organize
Determine personnel needs
Recruit project manager and team
Organize the project team
Assign works/responsibi li ti es/ authori ties to team
members
Plan for coord ination and communications with other
stakeholders
Tools: Responsibility chart, organizational chart,
information (reporting) flow chart
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Financial and resource planning
Estimate the resource requirements for all activities and
integrate into project budget
Set financial control systems (rules, responsibilities, etc.)
Plan for financing (where, when, how much and for what)
Prepare the projects cash flow projections w ith
contingency
Tools: Cash flow analysis, risk analysis
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Scheduling
Estimate time needed to complete each activit y
Define the necessary sequencing relations of activities
Determine starting and ending times for each activity.
Check if other resources are sufficient to finish the tasks
as scheduled. Determine milestones for the project.
Identify critical activities and schedule risks
Determine the time-cost trade-off
Tools: Gantt chart, CPM, PERT
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Plan for project control
Define milestones and phased progress measures
Define monitor ing mechanism:
Who, when and how to moni tor progress and performance
Criteria for measuring progress, quality and performance
Ways of collecting data for the measures and assessment
Reporting lines of monitor ing results and mechanism for
corrective actions
Plan resources for monitoring activities
Perform risk management: identify and analyze risks
involved, and outline the strategies to respond to risks