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Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

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Page 1: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

LessonsFrom 30+ Years of Experience

• No Panaceas

• No Cheap Solutions

• No Breakthroughs--No Miracles

• Numbers Matter

• Experience Matters

• Size Matters

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Page 2: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Lessons• Always Check the Numbers

Vortec: The Numbers Didn’t Add Up

• Always Check the ReferencesVortec: References Discredited in the USA

• Always GoogleVortec: Ducted Turbine Critics on the Web

• Always Go to the Library. . . Or to Your Neighborhood Bookstore!

Lots of Wind Books Now Available

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Page 3: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Lessons• Always Be Wary of “New” Designs

© VortecPaul Gipe, wind-works.org

Page 4: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Scams, Frauds, & FlakesTell-Tale Signs

• Hype High--Experience Low• New Design-- “Not Like Those Others”• “New” Patents• “Works @ 2 m/s!• Drag Devices (Squirrels in a Cage)• Ducted Turbines!• Pyramid Schemes

“Get in on the Ground Floor Now”• Fancy Web Sites

Cheaper than Hardware

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Page 5: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Nomenclature

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

• Mid-80s HAWT

• Internal Ladder

• w/ Fall Restraint

• Work Platform

• Tip Brakes

• “Rocket” Tower

Page 6: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Historical Wind Turbines

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 7: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Historical Wind Turbines

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 8: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Smith-Putnam 1.25 MW

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 9: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Smith-Putnam 1.25 MW, 1941~700 hrs

Page 10: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Gedser24 m, 250 kW1957-1967

© Risø National Laboratory

Page 11: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Tvind54 m, 2 MW1978-Present

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 12: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Growian100 m, 3 MW,

1981~400 hrs

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 13: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications-Telecom

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 14: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications-Yurt Power

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 15: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications-Marine

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 16: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications-Cathodic Protection

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 17: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications-Fence Charging

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 18: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications--Off-the-Grid

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 19: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications--Homes

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 20: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications--Farms

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 21: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Applications--Wind Power Plants

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 22: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Models of Development

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 23: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Small Groups or Clusters

Page 24: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Electric Vehicle Charging

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 25: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Electric Vehicle Charging

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 26: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Interconnected Wind Turbines

• 90,000 units worldwide--115 TWh/yr

• 600 TWh cumulative generation

• 7,400 million operating hours

• 75% induction (asynchronous)

generators

• 25% AC-DC-AC with inverters

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 27: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Single Turbine Interconnection

Page 28: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Arrays

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 29: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysRectilinear

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 30: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Typical California Spacing

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

3 RD

6 RD

Page 31: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant Arrays--Rectilinear

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

160-250 kW: Mojave, California

Page 32: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

750 kW: Lake Benton, Minnesota

Page 33: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

750 kW: Lake Benton, Minnesota

1 mi1.7 km

Page 34: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

640 kW: Woodstock, Minnesota

1 mi1.7 km

Fence lineField Boundary

Page 35: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Wind Plant ArraysLinear

Dikes, Breakwaters, Canals

Page 36: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysLinear

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 37: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

1 MW: White Deer, Texas

Page 38: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysLinear

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 39: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysRidgetops

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 40: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysRidgetops

Paul Gipe & Assoc. Zond Windwall, Tehachapi, CA

Page 41: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysWind Walls

Paul Gipe & Assoc. Zond Windwall, Tehachapi, CA

Page 42: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Tehachapi Pass, California

Page 43: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Cluster

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 44: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Wind Plant ArraysClusters

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 45: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Off-shore

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Vestas, Tuno Knøb, Denmark

Page 46: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

2 MW, Thybøren, Denmark

Page 47: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

2 MW, Middelgrunden, Denmark

Page 48: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

2 MW, Middelgrunden, Denmark

Page 49: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Samsø Offshore Wind Plant Denmark

Sams Offshore Wind PlantBonus 2.3 MW, Installed 03/02

Specific YieldSwept AreaDiameter2004kWh/m2/yrm2mkWh/yrUnit

1,4605,62184.68,213,16511,4905,62184.68,388,72421,4705,62184.68,272,72431,2805,62184.67,207,43041,4605,62184.68,186,21451,4505,62184.68,172,37761,4705,62184.68,237,05771,4605,62184.68,184,79481,4405,62184.68,089,68091,4805,62184.68,301,608101,45056,21281,253,773Total

WindStats, Spring 2005, Vol. 18, No. 2, pg 86.

Page 50: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Measures of Productivity

• Capacity (Plant) FactorMisleading Indicator

Used for Fossil-Fired Plants

Not Suited for Wind Energy Use

• kWh/kW/yr (for Planning Purposes)When Sufficient Data is Unavailable

• Annual Specific Yield (kWh/m2/yr)The Only Measure Specific to Wind Energy

Page 51: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Measures of Cost

• $/kW of Installed CapacityOften a Misleading Indicator

• $/m2 of Installed Swept AreaMost Useful When Resource is

Unknown

• $/kWh/yr of Annual GenerationMost Important Criteria in the End

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 52: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

• Market/Load

• Wind Resource

• Land

• Financing

• Project Development

• Wind Turbine

Page 53: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Market/ Load

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

• Transport (Transmission)• Distance to Market

Urban or Rural Areas

• Capacity (10 MW?)• Contracts between Equals?• Price• Length & Terms• Political Climate

Page 54: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Wind Resource

• Average Speed & PowerAt 80 m?

• Speed Distribution

• Seasonal & Diurnal Variations

• ExtremesTurbine Types I, II, III

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 55: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Land

• Availability (Who Owns It?)

• Accessibility (Can You Get To It?)Road Design & Construction

• Conflicts (Who Doesn’t Want It?)Stakeholders-Interested Parties

Open Space Preservation

Environmental

• Cost

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 56: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Project Development

• Who Develops Project?

• Who Owns It?

• Who Operates It?

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 57: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Financing

• Local/Regional/International• Project Financed• Collateral for Small Projects• Timing

Construction > Completion

• Debt Ratios & Triggers• Off Balance Sheet?

Enron Wind

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 58: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Elements of a Wind Plant Wind Turbine

• Technology Often Not the Focus

• Nearing Commodity Status

• Terms & Conditions Can Trump Technology

• Warranties & Service ContractsWho Backs Warranties & Service

Contracts

• Track RecordNews Reports, WindStats

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 59: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Large Turbine Manufacturers

• Vestas (DK)• Bonus-Siemans• NEG-Micon (DK)• Enercon (D)• GE Wind (D-US)• Gamesa (ES)• Mitsubishi (JP)

• Nordex (DK)• Ecotecnia (ES)• DeWind (D)• Suzlon (India)• Lagerwey (NL)• RePower (D)• Fuhrländer (D)

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Page 60: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Bonus 63 m, 1.3 MW

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

© Bonus

Page 61: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Nordex N50

Paul Gipe & Assoc. © Nordex

Page 62: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

DeWind D8, 80 m, 2 MW

Paul Gipe & Assoc. © DeWind

Page 63: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Gamesa G80, 2 MW

Paul Gipe & Assoc. © Gamesa

Page 64: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Ecotecnia 1.6 MW

Paul Gipe & Assoc. © Ecotecnia

Page 65: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

General Electric

GE Mod-1, 60 m, 1979, USDOE

GE 1.5 MW, 77 m, 2003

Page 66: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Vestas

V80, 1.8 MW, Kincardine, Ontario

Page 67: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Direct-Drive Wind Turbines• Enercon (D)

• Lagerwey (NL)

• Jeumont-Industrie (F)

Paul Gipe & Assoc.© Enercon

Page 68: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Lagerwey Direct-Drive

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

© Lagerwey

Page 69: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Jeumont-Industrie Direct Drive

• DiscoidFrench Nuclear Submarines

• 50 Units Built

J48 © Jeumont-Industrie

Page 70: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Direct-Drive Wind TurbinesUnder Development

• WinWin (FL)

• Vensys (D)Permanent Magnet

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Vensys © Hugo Denker

© Vensys

Page 71: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,

Paul Gipe & Assoc.

Very Big Wind Turbines

Diameter m

Swept Area m2

Capacity MW

Nacelle Mass tonnes

Year

GE Wind 104 8,500 3.6 295 2003

Siemens 107 9,000 3.6 210 2004

Enercon E112 114 10,200 6 500 2004

Multibrid 116 10,600 5 310 2004

Vestas V120 120 11,300 4.5 210 2005

Repower 5M 126 12,500 5 410 2004

Page 72: Lessons From 30+ Years of Experience No Panaceas No Cheap Solutions No Breakthroughs--No Miracles Numbers Matter Experience Matters Size Matters Paul Gipe,