lessons learned from futures studies: towards a method for web science
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Presentation about applying the methodology of Futures Studies to Web Science. Student Project at the Web Science Summer School 09TRANSCRIPT
Lessons learned from Futures Studies:
towards a method for Web Science
Dominic DiFranzo, Benjamin Heitmann, Betty Purwandari
Motivation: Web Science for predictions?• Could we have predicted
Twitter?
• Goal of a systems level view of the Web:Understanding the possible futures of the Web
• Predictions could allow engineering and shaping a better Web
The science of predictions: Futures studies
• The Web = Technology + Social Element
• Predictions need to take both into account
• Futures studies takes models and methods from a broad range of fields: economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, theology
Objectives of Futures Studies
1. Examine possible, probable, preferable and “wild card” futures
2. Holistic/systems view of prediction domain
3. Challenges hidden assumptions behind future predictions.
4. Provide blue print to connect extrapolated and normative research
Source: Futures studies article on Wikipedia
“Images of the future”
• Foundational method:
• How a society views its future, affects the future direction of that society.
• Expectations of the future, relate to past trends.
• Analysing “future images” allows making better predictions.
Science Fiction
• Snowcrash: Metaverse (Second Life)
• Rainbows End: Augmented reality(sixth sense)
• Down and Out in Magical Kingdom: Wuffie (ebay feedback)
Trends• Wired cover story: The Long
Boom, a history of the future(1997)
• 40 years of growth from 1980 to 2020
• tech waves: computers, telecom, biotech, nanotech, alt energy
• optimistic re growth of all world economies
• Superstruct game: prediction game based on Web 2.0 interaction
Methodologies
• quantitative (extrapolation):
• trend analysis (times series analysis)
• qualitative:
• Scenario planning
• Backcasting
• more on our wiki page
Summary: How to apply futures studies to Web Science
• Studying the current Web is not enough, we need prediction methodologies to help us build a better web.
• New method for Web Science: combine normative and extrapolating methods
• emphasise plurality of relevant futures (you can learn more from multiple futures)