1

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF

CARBON DIOXIDE

EMISSIONS

Arun K Sinha

Markandey Rai &

Ashbindu Singh

IAOS Conference 2010, Santiago, Chile, Oct. 20-22, 2010

2 2

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…

There are eight United Nations Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs).

Its seventh goal aims to ensure

environmental sustainability, which is of

interest for the present investigation.

It consists of four targets that include

target 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, and 7.D .

3 3

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE…

Target 7.A consists of ten indicators that

include proportion of land area covered by

forest and carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions.

The address for the MDGs Indicators is

http://mdgs.un.org or

http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx .

4 4

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …

The site presents the official data, definitions, methodologies and sources for the 48 indicators for measuring progress made towards the Millennium Development Goals.

Analyses point out to the excessive carbon dioxide emissions as one of the main factors of climate change across the world.

5 5

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …

With this view a trend analysis of the

emission is conducted.

There are two main sources for the data of

the carbon dioxide emission.

6 6

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

For the present investigation the data set provided by the CDIAC is used because it gives data sets for a larger number of countries / areas as compared with the UNFCCC.

7 7

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …

The used data set was last updated on 23 June 2010.

The unit of emission value is in thousand metric tons of CO2.

Only 210 out of 216 countries / areas have values of emissions for 1998-2007.

8 8

LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON …

But 209 places are considered after

excluding “Niue” because its value is “4”

for each of the ten years under

investigation.

9

TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE

EMISSION …

For understanding the trends of the carbon

dioxide emissions a linear trend equation

based on the last ten years data is

obtained for each country / area.

The investigation is based on the data of

1998 to 2007.

10

TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE

EMISSION …

The assumption of linear trend is justified

because of smaller number of

observations.

This assumption appears to be more

reasonable for understanding the annual

growth rate.

11

TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE

EMISSION …

Out of the two hundred nine thirty four countries / areas (16.3%) reveal negative annual growth rates (showing decreasing emission).

The linear trend equations disclose that China has the highest annual growth rate (394016) while Germany has its lowest value (-7488).

12

TREND ANALYSIS OF CARBON DIOXIDE

EMISSION …

This shows that the emission over the

years has decreased in Germany.

The descriptive statistics of the two

countries are obtained.

13

Figure 1. A pie chart depicting the sign of the

annual growth rates of the carbon dioxide

emissions

N

P

Category

P175, 83.7%

N34, 16.3%

Countries / Areas with Negative (N) and Positive (P) Growth Rates

14

Table . Descriptive Statistics of China and Germany

Variable China Germany

Total Count 10 10

Mean 4493614 831121

SE Mean 394807 9055

StDev 1248490 28635

CV 27.78 3,45

Minimum 3318045 787936

Q1 3384908 811310

Median 4020418 829716

Q3 5738873 840683

Maximum 6538367 894381

Range 3220322 106445

15

Figure2. Boxplots of carbon dioxide in China and

Germany during 1998-2007

7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

Em

issi

on

s

900000

875000

850000

825000

800000

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

Em

issi

on

s

Boxplot of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China, 1998-2007

Median 4020418

Boxplot of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Germany, 1998-2007

Median 829716

894381 in 1998

16

Figure3. Trend analysis plots for China and Germany,

1998-2007

10987654321

7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

YearsCa

rbo

n D

iox

ide

Em

issi

on

s

Actual

Fits

Variable

10987654321

900000

875000

850000

825000

800000

YearsCa

rbo

n D

iox

ide

Em

issi

on

s

Actual

Fits

Variable

Trend Analysis Plot for China, 1998-2007Linear Trend Model

Yt = 2326528 + 394016*t

Trend Analysis Plot for Germany, 1998-2007

Linear Trend Model

Yt = 872307 - 7488.34*t

17

References

Levin, Richard I. and Rubin, David S. (2004). Statistics for Management. Seventh Edition. Pearson Education, (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Indian Branch, Delhi 110092, India.

Levine, D. M., Stephan, D., Krehbiel T. C. and Berenson, M. L (2006). Statistics for Mangers, Fourth Edition. Prentice- Hall of India Private Limited, New Delhi-110 001,India

18

Table1. Countries / areas with linear trend

equations and annual growth rates during 1998-

2007

Serial No. Countries / Areas Linear

Trend Equations

Annual Growth

Rate

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Andorra

Angola

Anguilla

Ant. Barbuda

Argentina

Armenia

Aruba

841.1-24.3t

2224.6 + 266.4t

105018+ 3314.45t

496.7 + 6.7t

3700.9 + 1877.6t

22.5 + 3.1t

313.7 + 12.1t

126161 + 4489.7t

2758.5 + 177.2t

1819.1 + 65.9t

-24.3

266.4

3314.4

6.7

1877.6

3.1

12.1

4489.7

177.2

65.9

19

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bahamas

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Barbados

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bermuda

Bhutan

Bolivia

Bosnia Her.

320386 + 4587.3t

60142.5 +1211.9t

29174.7 + 479.0t

1701.7 + 5.9t

16424.8 + 416.7t

21833.5 +2236.5t

1128.2 + 21.2t

56210.7+ 1118.7t

120384 - 1535.5t

581.4 - 20.0t

767.5 + 279.1t

483 + 5.4t

345 + 23.1t

8716.3 + 362.4t

16548 + 1178.8t

4587.3

1211.9

479.0

45.9

416.7

2236.5

21.2

1118.7

-1535.5

-20.0

279.1

5.4

23.1

362.4

1178.8

20

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Botswana

Brazil

Brit.V. Islands

Brunei Daru.

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Cape Verde

Cayman Isl.

Cent. Af. Rep

Chad

Chile

China

China,HKS A

China, MSR

Colombia

Comoros

3662.2 + 122.8t

311315 + 4816.0t

45.9 + 5.3t

5460.6 + 96.9t

44090.1 + 428.9t

784.9 + 67.4t

309.4 - 16.4t

1666 + 261.7t

2603.1 + 234.6t

484375 + 8588.6t

137.8 + 18.6t

301.7 + 27.2t

257.3 - 1.7t

57.3 + 38.7t

54635.1 +1284.4t

2326528 +394016t

40122.5 - 112.4t

1565.5 + 10.5t

58337.7 + 79.0t

67.4 + 5.4t

122.8

4816.0

5.3

96.9

428.9

67.4

-16.4

261.7

234.6

8588.6

18.6

27.2

-1.7

38.7

1284.4

394016.0

-112.4

10.5

79.0

5.4

21

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

Congo

Cook Islands

Costa Rica

Cote d'Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czech Republ

DemR Congo

Denmark

Djibouti

Dominica

Dom Repu

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

EquatGuinea

Eritrea

Estonia

Ethiopia

583.6 + 109.6t

12.7 + 5.4t

4787 + 301.6t

6806.5 + 26.8t

20022.6 + 466.7t

24863.3 + 130.3t

6378.2 + 161.9t

122430 + 193.5t

1896 + 30.0t

51784.7 - 121.7t

383.1 + 9.6t

82 + 4.2t

19284.4 + 165t

19618.9 + 985.3t

107571 + 6691.3t

5555.4 + 103.7t

123.9 + 598.0t

626.1 + 3.4t

15647.3 + 344.2t

4577.8 + 136.4t

109.6

5.4

301.6

26.8

466.7

130.3

161.9

193.5

30.0

-121.7

9.6

4.2

165.0

985.3

6691.3

103.7

598.0

3.4

344.2

136.4

22

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

Faeroe Islands

Falkland Is (M)

Fiji

Finland

France

French Guiana

French Poly

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Germany

Ghana

Gibraltar

Greece

Greenland

Grenada

Guadeloupe

Guatemala

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

653.4 + 3.7t

31.8 + 2.7t

638.9 + 113.1t

53909.6 +1157.7t

387334 - 699.2t

909.9 - 6.1t

567.9 + 30.8t

1312.2 + 60.8t

226.7 + 14.4t

3841.3 + 119.9t

872307 - 7488.3t

5633.2 + 327.2t

301.4 + 9.9t

86893.4 +1301.1t

548.067 - 5.5t

190.5 + 5.2t

1657.3+ 59.5t

8412.3 + 447.6t

1238.1 + 15.1t

193.8 + 8.4t

3.7

2.7

113.1

1157.7

-699.2

-6.1

30.8

60.8

14.4

119.9

-7488.3

327.2

9.9

1301.1

-5.5

5.2

59.5

447.6

15.1

8.4

23

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Kiribati

Korea, Dem. P

Korea, Rep of

1641 - 18.4t

1073.5 + 125.6t

3965.5 + 441.2t

59810.5 - 261.0t

2047.7 + 23.8t

999346+ 54481.5t

202922+ 18003.5t

278656+ 20834.2t

67252.5+ 3570.6t

39432.9 + 522.8t

62392.9 + 229.9t

437707 + 3086.5t

9023.9 + 328.6t

1213100+ 4374.4t

12951.1 + 877.1t

100113+ 10741.6t

9072.3+ 205.5t

29.9 - 0.2t

70651.7+ 1101.5t

389238+ 11733.6t

-18.4

125.6

441.2

-261.0

23.8

54481.5

18003.5

20834.2

3570.6

522.8

229.9

3086.5

328.6

4374.4

877.1

10741.6

205.5

-0.2

1101.5

11733.6

24

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan

Lao P D Repu

Latvia

Lebanon

Liberia

Libyan A Jama

Lithunia

Luxembourg

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Mali

Malta

Marshall Island

Martinique

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mexico

58505.8+ 2979.7t

4652.8 + 108.0t

843.5 + 76.0t

6655.1 + 69.5t

16824.8 - 115.4t

325.5 + 41.9t

46130.9+ 1162.9t

13483.7 + 65.1t

6902.5 + 485.9t

1905 + 21.0t

944.5 + 14.7t

95611.3+10110.9t

328.3+ 55.9t

520.9 + 5.6t

2098.7 + 63.8t

65.9 + 3.0t

1915.5 - 16.5t

981.7 + 85.8t

2132.1 + 172.3t

367873 + 8851.3t

2979.7

108.0

76.0

69.5

-115.4

41.9

1162.9

65.1

485.9

21.0

14.7

10110.9

55.9

5.6

63.8

3.0

-16.5

85.8

172.3

8851.3

25

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

Mongolia

Montserrat

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Namibia

Nauru

Nepal

Netherlands

Netherl Ant.

New Caledonia

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Norway

Occ Pale Terri

Oman

Pakistan

Palau

6857.3 + 287t

46 + 3.3t

29845.7+ 1637.5t

948.9+ 139.9t

6401.6 + 711.6t

1564.1+ 138.1t

135.9 + 0.8t

2740.5 + 57.8t

169071 + 383.6t

2245 + 469.7t

1817.3 + 113.5t

31656.8 + 226.5t

3427.7 + 100.8t

940.5 - 11.7t

48613.7 +6433.1t

35693.3+ 1153.8t

238.1 + 230.7t

14074.4+ 2525.7t

85871.9+ 6500.8t

107.9 + 11.5t

287.0

3.3

1637.5

139.9

711.6

138.1

0.8

57.8

383.6

469.7

113.5

226.5

100.8

-11.7

6433.1

1153.8

230.7

2525.7

6500.8

11.5

26

146

147

148

149

150

151

152

153

154

155

156

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

Panama

Papua N Gui

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Qatar

Rep of Moldova

Reunion

Romania

Russian Feder

Rwanda

Saint Helena

S Kit and Nevis

Saint Lucia

S P and Miqu

SVince and G

Samoa

Sao T Principe

5637.1 + 109.4t

2455.7 + 204.1t

4227.7 - 31.9t

24091.9+ 1355.7t

77616.7 - 406.1t

311190 - 293.6t

63232 - 187.6t

21059.9+ 3349.4t

4569.1 - 3.1t

2421.6 + 42.7t

92371.7 + 140.7t

1389868 + 15759t

657.7 + 4.8t

17.5 - 0.8t

83.9 + 18.5t

309.9 + 6.6t

51.9 + 1.6t

157.8 + 4.9t

130.1 + 3.2t

5.9t

109.4

204.1

-31.9

1355.7

-406.1

-293.6

-187.6

3349.4

-3.1

42.7

140.7

15759.0

4.8

-0.8

18.5

6.6

1.6

4.9

3.2

5.9

27

166

167

168

169

170

171

172

173

174

175

176

177

178

179

180

181

182

183

184

185

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia and Mont

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

Solomon Islands

Somalia

South Africa

Spain

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Suriname

Swaziland

Sweden

Switzerland

Syrian A Repub

Tajikistan

205722+ 20327.3t

3412.4 + 209.3t

41863.9 + 1251t

465.3 + 26.3t

500.5 + 90.1t

54465.3 - 78.8t

40859 - 310.5t

14735.5 + 26t

157.1 + 3.3t

486.6 + 11.6t

347408 + 7068.7t

263241+ 10100.1t

8083.5+ 458.3t

3529 + 858.8t

2081.7 + 35.1t

1247.7 - 25.4t

54020.8 - 290.6t

41559.3 - 144.2t

62514.1 + 836.3t

4423.53 + 191.3t

20327.3

209.3

1251.0

26.3

90.1

-78.8

-310.5

26.0

3.3

11.6

7068.7

10100.1

458.3

858.8

35.1

-25.4

-290.6

-144.2

836.3

191.3

28

186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

202

203

204

205

Thailand

The fo Yug R M

Togo

Tonga

Trin and Toba

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Turks and C Isl

Uganda

Ukraine

Unit A Emirates

United King

Uni R of Tanzan

United States

Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Vanuatu

Venezuela

Viet Nam

173794 + 11477t

12331.9 - 146.3t

1319.27 - 0.1t

107.9 + 7.8t

18238.1 + 1780t

17638.1 + 642.7t

177859 + 8572.7t

30093.3+ 1656.5t

-20.7 + 18.1t

918.9 + 185.8t

309954 + 1323.6t

93027.9+ 3158.6t

544899 - 92.2t

1668.5 + 408.1t

5516667+34014.9t

5314.1 + 68.9t

121009 - 445.9t

78.3 + 1.7t

172740 - 242.3t

33091 + 8194.2t

11477.0

-146.3

-0.1

7.8

1780.0

642.7

8572.7

1656.5

18.1

185.8

1323.6

3158.6

-92.2

408.1

34014.9

68.9

-445.9

1.7

-242.3

8194.2

29

206

207

208

209

Western Sahara

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

231.4 + t

11418.4+ 1046.7t

1761.3 + 76.3t

15476.7 - 634.7t

1.0

1046.7

76.3

-634.7