The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public.

Reclamation Reclamation MissionMission

Mote, 2003

TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water content at western snow courses

Less spring snowpack

Stewart et al., 2005

Earlier greenup

Cayan et al., 2001Figs. M. Dettinger (USGS)

Observed Hydrology & Vegetation Changes

Less snow/more rain

Implications for water supplies, water Implications for water supplies, water demands, operating constraints?demands, operating constraints? Supplies

warming ○ less snowpack less controllable water supply ○ more landscape evapotranspiration (ET) less runoff

precipitation change? could be + or - , help or worsen…

Demands warming

○ Irrigation: increased seasonal water demand (longer season, more ET)○ Electricity: increased summer demand, decreased winter demand

Operating Constraints Environment – instream flow requirements?

○ Reduction in cold-water supplies Flood Protection – storage reservation requirement?

○ All other things equal, warming leads to greater area contributing runoff during western winter storm events – greater winter reservoir drafts?

○ Storm intensification could be + or -, worsen or help…

Key Challenges for ReclamationKey Challenges for Reclamation

Understand how climate variability and change can affect Western water supply and demand, and Reclamation delivery of water given operational constraints (e.g., environmental constraints, flood constraints)

Bring science and technology to bear on the needs of water resources managers

Address goals of internal programs and authorizations where climate change is a factor

Notable ActivitiesNotable Activities

Understanding Impacts & Uncertainties Scoping Guidance:

○ “Level of Analysis” Options Paper list options, pros, cons andgeneral recommendations for using climate change

information in long-term planning (e.g., NEPA, ESA, general studies) (Art Coykendall, acoykendall@usbr.gov)

Tool Development: ○ Regional Literature Syntheses

Living document, annual updates, summarize CC implications for water resources, Western 17 states (J. Mark Spears, jspears@usbr.gov)

http://www.usbr.gov/research/docs/climatechangelitsynthesis.pdf

○ Downscaled Climate Projections web-archive Collaboration with SCU, LLNL, USGS/Scripps, Climate Central, USACE (T. Pruitt,

tpruitt@usbr.gov), 112 CMIP3 projections, 1950-2099, contiguous U.S. , monthly, 12km x 12km resolution)

http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/

Notable ActivitiesNotable Activities

Understanding Impacts & Uncertainties Putting Guidance and Tools to action:

○ Ideally: we’d have well-trained practitioners, familiar with climate change concepts, how to apply it in planning, how to communicate results

○ Reality: We have few internal practitioners trained in using projections of future climate – limits capacity of scoping and doing. We also lack refereed “best practices” (e.g., which climate models? which projections? how to relate projections to planning assumptions?). Literature offers many methods, but little guidance.

○ Reaction: Learn by doing. Conduct exploratory studies, use literature methods, guiding thoughts on

method choice: Simple. Manageable. Defendable. Refine methods, on-ramp to actual planning (e.g., NEPA, ESA)

- E.g., MP 2008 ESA consultation (http://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvo/OCAP/sep08_docs/Appendix_R.pdf)

Notable ActivitiesNotable Activities

Coalition Building between Science & Management Objectives:

○ stay abreast of new science, usher mature methods into practice○ inform researchers on management community needs

Vehicles:○ DOI Climate Science Centers & Landscape Conservation Coops.

Information on Reclamation involvement: - Landscape Conservation Cooperatives - Avra Morgan (amorgan@usbr.gov) - Climate Science Centers – Curt Brown (cbrown@usbr.gov)

○ Climate Change and Water Working Group, or CCAWWG ( Currently six federal members: NOAA, USGS, USACE, USEPA, FEMA, Reclamation Current activities

- Training Program development (goal: build trained practitioner capacity)- User Needs documents (goal: motivate research to address needs)- Approaches Workshop - Aug 2010 (goal: develop guidance on methodologies)

Information: Curtis Brown (cbrown@usbr.gov) , Chuck Hennig (chennig@usbr.gov)

Notable Activities Notable Activities

Recent Science Efforts funded by Reclamation R&D Flood Frequency Estimation within projections of Future Climate

○ Framework described in Raff et al. 2010. Framework applications are being explored by Reclamation Dam Safety Office (DSO) and TSC Flood Hydrology Group (John England, jengland@usbr.gov).

Comparison of Hydrology Models for Climate Change applications○ Focused on four surface water hydrologic models (VIC, PRMS, SacSMA/Snow17,

TMWB), calibrate/validate across contrasting historical climates. Publication in development. Contact: Levi Brekke (lbrekke@usbr.gov)

Application of new daily downscaling technique: Bias Correction Constructed Analogs○ Useful for describing projected changes in storm patterns (sub-monthly occurrence)

and diurnal variability (relevant to portraying watershed ET losses, ecosystem conditions)

○ Collaboration with USGS/Scripps, SCU, Climate Central, LLNL, USACE.○ Data in development, to be served at DCP Archive mentioned earlier. Contact: Tom

Pruitt (tpruitt@usbr.gov)

Notable Activities: Notable Activities: Basin Study ProgramBasin Study Program WaterSMART Basin Studies

http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/basin.html ○ Fed / non-Fed cost-shared studies on future supply & demand imbalances,

management strategies to address imbalances, stressors including climate change. ○ FY10 study grants: Colorado River Basin, St Marys / Milk River Basin (MT), and

Yakima River Basin (WA). FY11 study proposals under review.

West Wide Risk Assessments (PL 111-11 Secure Water Act) periodic reports to Congress (first report due 2011)

○ Focus: climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options, various resources○ Basins: Colorado, Columbia-Snake, Klamath, Missouri, Rio Grande, Sacramento, San

Joaquin, and Truckee program approach: “West Wide Risk Assessments”

○ Hydrology: consistent west-wide assessment approach○ Demands, Operations, other Resources: promote basin-to-basin reporting

consistency, but expect assessment to proceed with basin-specific approaches… ○ Program Information: David Raff, draff@usbr.gov