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Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar, 3
La Geopolítica y las Navieras
La Relación entre las Navieras y la Geopolítica:
El estado de la Industria Marítima hoy.
La consecuencia de la Geopolítica y las
Navieras: La Industria Marítima de mañana.
El Impacto de la Geopolítica y las Navieras en el
flujo de Comercio en Colombia
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Development of GDP Growth Projections2015 – 2019F (IMF)
5
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook April 2018
2,42,0
2,7
2,5
2,1
6,9 6,7
6,9
6,6 6,4
-3,5 -3,5
1,02,3
2,5
8,2
7,1
6,7
7,47,8
2,9
1,52,3
2,9 2,7
3,5 3,2 3,8 3,9 3,9
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
China
India
USA
EU
Brasil
World
2,7 2,3Ø World trade volume
4,9 5,1 4,7
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Global Container Throughput vs. GDP Growth (TEU-to-GDP Multiplier)
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-10%
5%
-5%
0%
10%
20%
15%
2020
F
2019F
2018
F
2017
F
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
GDP multiplier
Global GDP growth %
Container throughput growth %
1990-1999 Avg. Multiplier: 3.4 2000-2008 Avg. Multiplier: 2.6 2010-2016
Avg. Multiplier: 1.4 2017F: 1.7
Source: Alphaliner Newsletter No. 42 – 2017
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Average operating margin Container Carrier* 2011-2017
1
5
3
-1-1
-8
-9
-6-6
-2
2
5
1
3
0
-2
-4
1
-1
-3
-1
5
1
-12
-11
-7
-6
0
Q
4
Q
3
Q
2
Q
1
Q
4
Q
3
Q
2
Q
1
Q
4
Q
3
Q
2
Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1
20162014201320122011 ‘17
*Average of: CMA CGM (incl. APL to 2Q 2016), CSCL (until 1Q 2016), EMC, Hanjin (until Q2 2016), Hapag-Lloyd
(incl. CSAV until 2014), HMM, KL, Maersk, MOL, NYK, WHL, YML, ZIM Source: AXS Alphaliner Newsletter No 14, 2018; Annual Reports
7
2015
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Carrier Consolidation – Outlook 2018*
Source: Alphaliner Top 100, April 2018
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Capacity in m
TE
U
ZIMPILYang
Ming
Ever-
green
ONEHapag-
Lloyd
CMA
CGM
COSCO
/OOCL*
MSCMaersk
/ HSDG
QASCZhonggu
Logistics
Corp.
KMTCX-Press
Feeders
Wan
Hai
HMM TS
Lines
OrderbookExisting Fleet
9
*The proposed transaction is subject to regulatory approvals
Closing to be
expected June / July
2018
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Cellular Fleet Growth vs. Global Throughput2000-2018F (in %)
10
Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor April 2018
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
10
8
12
24
14
16
18
20
22
6
2
4
0
5,0
17,318,4
2013
20,0
2014
14,3
2009
13,1
2008
12,4
2007
11,0
2006
9,6
2005
8,3
2004
7,3
2010 2012
in m TEU in %
2003
6,7
2002
6,2
2001
5,6
2000 2019F
23,0
16,315,4
2015
22,3
2018F2017
21,1
2016
20,3
201
1
% Annual Cellular Capacity Growth
Fleet Capacity
% Global Throughput Growth
Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,
Colombia Contenedores 2017
19
EXPORTS 2.016 2.017 % IMPORTS 2.016 2.017 %
CARTAGENA CO 184.240 195.311 6% CARTAGENA CO 293.010 296.479 1%
BUENAVENTURA 154.472 161.017 4% BUENAVENTURA 434.927 431.093 -1%
BARRANQUILLA 39.030 40.555 4% BARRANQUILLA 70.462 69.444 -1%
SANTA MARTA 59.372 69.506 17% SANTA MARTA 23.741 24.462 3%
Total Export 437.114 466.389 7% Total Imports 822.140 821.478 0%
TOTAL 2.016 2.017 %
CARTAGENA CO 477.250 491.790 3%
BUENAVENTURA 589.399 592.110 0%
BARRANQUILLA 109.492 109.999 0%
SANTA MARTA 83.113 93.968 13%
Total Import & Export 1.259.254 1.287.867 2%
Teus 2.017 2.018
Fruit 127.366 35.247
Resin 70.577 17.780
Coffee 38.885 9.286
Sugar 25.051 6.070
Total 261.879 68.383
Total Mercado 530.053 136.916
% 49% 50%
Countries 2017 IMPORTACIONEXPORTACION TOTAL
ESTADOS UNIDOS 139.641 100.399 240.040
CHINA 214.429 7.991 222.420
BRASIL 66.989 34.196 101.185
MEXICO 72.071 18.062 90.133
CHILE 44.224 32.232 76.456
PERU 20.668 45.748 66.416
BELGICA 18.498 45.329 63.827
ALEMANIA 26.129 13.528 39.657
INDIA 24.017 8.205 32.222
ESPANA 23.626 7.636 31.262
Total Top 10 650.292 313.326 963.618
Grand Total 827.085 530.053 1.357.138
% 79% 59% 71%