life-cycle employment: the older workers in the spotlight jean-olivier hairault, paris school of...
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Life-Cycle Employment: The Older Workers in The Spotlight
Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Paris School of Economics
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Some basic facts
National differences on older worker emploment rates
Life cycle employment
Les seniors et l'emploi en France, Rapport CAE, 2005,
Antoine d'AUTUME, Jean-Paul BETBÈZE, Jean-Olivier
HAIRAULT.
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Older workers across the world: focusing on men
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Retirement Age Differences?
Pre-retirement Age differences?
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Life Cycle and cross-country comparisons
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A positive correlation between youth and senior employment
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Retirement Age
Economics of retirement, Alan L. Gustman and Thomas L. Steinmeier
Blanchet D. and L. Caussat (2000), Le libre choix de l’âge de la retraite, approche économique, in Retraites choisies et progressives, D. Taddei ed., Rapport du Conseil d’Analyse Economique, La Documentation française
Gruber, J. and D.Wise, “Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison,” American Economic Review 88 (May 1998), 158—163.
Bozio
Inciter à différer le départ en retraite: une analyse en termes de courbe de Laffer (joint with F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), in Revue d'Economie Politique, 2005, 115, p.241-263.
Quantifying the Laffer Curve on the Continued Activity Tax in a Dynastic Framework. International Economic Review, (J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), Forthcoming.
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The pre-retirement age employment
Whatever the country considered, a decrease in the
employment rate is observed just before the retirement
age.
Why?
A decrease in senior productivity or increase in work
disutility?
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Aubert, Caroli, Roger, Economic Journal (2006).
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Two potential negative effects
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Les 55-59 ans coûtent-ils trop cher en France (par
rapport à leur productivité)?
De façon générale, leur expérience
semble suffisante pour compenser des
salaires plus élevés et une moindre
adaptation aux nouvelles technologies
(sauf dans des secteurs particuliers).
Aubert, Caroli, Roger, Economic
Journal (2006).
Aubert P., et B. Crépon (2003) : «
La productivité des salariés âgés : une tentative d’estimation
», Economie et Statistique, n° 368,
pp.95-119
En particulier, l’idée souvent avancée
selon laquelle les salaires progressent
trop avec l’ancienneté, y compris
après 50 ans, ne résiste pas à une
analyse empirique rigoureuse.
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The older worker employment decline
Why just before the retirement age?
A distance effect.
Towards a life-cycle equilibrium unemployment theory
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La faiblesse de l’âge de la retraite est un problème pour l’emploi des quinquas… et non l’inverse !
L’horizon d’activité se raccourcit avec l’âge
La perspective de la retraite décourage tout «investissement » des et dans les seniors
Pour un chômeur proche de la retraite : à quoi bon chercher un emploi ?
Pour une entreprise : à quoi bon formerou embaucher un travailleur proche de la retraite ?
EntréeVie active
AgeRetraite
Impact négatif de la date butoir sur l’emploide la génération la plus proche de la retraite
Baisse du taux d’emploi à proximité de l’âge de la retraite dans tous les pays
=60 ansFrance
50
Ce n’est pas l’âge absolu qui compte mais la distanceà la retraite
65 ansOCDE
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Age de la retraite et taux d’emploi des 55-59 ans
(OCDE,1995)
Ita
JapSue
Bel
Usa
GBr
Fra
EspCan
PB
All
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
Age de retraite de référence
Tau
x d'
empl
oi r
elat
if 5
5-59
/25-
59
Droite d'ajustement
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Life Cycle Employment
Life-cycle equilibrium unemployment, A. Chéron, J.O.
Hairault and F. Langot. Working Paper IZA
Les effets à rebours de l'âge de la retraite sur le taux
d'emploi des seniors, (joint with F. Langot and T.
Sopraseuth), in Economie et Statistique, 2007.
The Pre-Retirement Job Search: A Basic Explanation of the
Older Worker Employment. J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T.
Sopraseuth
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The French Case
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La culture de la préretraite
55 ans 57,5 ans
60 ans30 ans
Précarité et chômage des jeunes
« Préretraite » des seniors
Un taux d’emploi des 30-54 ans parmi les plus élevés de l’OCDE
La société française organise le départ des seniors à partir de 55 ans. Le départ anticipé des seniors devait favoriser l’entrée des jeunes; il assure en fait la protection de l’emploi des 30-54 ans; il constitue en effet la modalité consensuelle d’ajustement à la baisse des effectifs dans les entreprises.
Un marché du travail très particulier…
La préretraite est devenue une norme et raccourcit encore l’horizon de fin d’activité
Les seniors bénéficient d’indemnités généreuses jusqu’à l’âge de la retraite
Les entreprises peuvent faire les restructurations nécessaires à leur survie dans la paix sociale
Faire sortir de l’activité la génération la plus ancienne, c’est détruire un capital humain spécifique
c’est choisir l’inactivité définitive (des seniors) plutôt que le chômage temporaire (des ages médians)
Même si elle résout des problèmes sociaux ponctuels, cette situation est extrêmement coûteuse globalement
Pacte social implicite
Comment le refus d’un fonctionnement « normal » du marché du travail conduit à l’inactivité des seniors et finalement à une culture de la préretraite (norme sociale).
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Protection de l’emploi et emploi des seniors (OCDE, 2003)
Aus
SueDanUsa
GBr
Fin
EspCan
PB
ItaAll
FraAut
Bel35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0 1 2 3 4Indice Protection Emploi
Tau
x d'
empl
oi 5
5-64
ans
(en
%)
Droite d'ajustement
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