life-cycle learning,earning,income and wealth - sfu.cadandolfa/lifecycle.pdf · life-cycle...
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L ife-CycleL earning, Earning, IncomeandW ealth
D avidA ndolfattoSimonFraserU niversity
ChristopherFerrallQ ueen’sU niversity
PaulG ommeFederalR eserveBankofCleveland
N ovember2000
1 Introduction
Individualswhoinvestheavilyinhumancapitaltendtoexperienceahigherlevelofearningsandincomethroughoutmostoftheirlife-cycle. M ostoftheirhigherearningsareintheformofhigherwages, butasigni…cantfractionisaccountedforby agreaterworke¤ort. In addition, such individuals tend toconsumemoreandaccumulate…nancialassetsatafasterrate. W hataccountsforthesedi¤erences? W hileonemightbeinclinedtoattributesuchdi¤erences largelytoluck, muchoftheheterogeneityweobservecouldalsobeduetopersonalchoicesthataremadeonthebasisofanintrinsicsetoftastesandabilitiesthathappentodi¤eracrosspeople. O urpaperisaboutexploringtheplausibilityofthislatterhypothesis.
O neobviousmeasureofpasthumancapitalinvestments isthelevelofedu-cationalattainment. A mongadults inCanadaandtheU nitedStates, roughly25% arehigh-schooldropouts, 50 % haveahigh-schooldiploma, and25% haveacollegedegree. U nlikedemographicvariablessuchasage, sex, andrace, educa-tionalattainment(orhumancapitalaccumulationingeneral) islargelyachoicevariable. Itseemsreasonabletosupposethatindividualsarefromanearlyagegenerallyawareofthebene…ts associatedwithhigherlevels ofhumancapitalinvestment;andyet, peopleclearlymakedi¤erentchoices. W hatdrives thesedi¤erentdecisions?
O newaytounderstandthehumancapitalchoiceis intermsofanoptimalinvestmentdecision;seeB en-Porath(1967 ). IntheBen-Porathmodel, individ-ualsseektomaximizethepresentvalueoftheirlifetimeearningsbyallocatingtheirtimebetweenworkandlearningactivities, andbychoosinganappropri-ateexpenditurepathforeducationalgoods andservices. A keyparameterinthismodelisthe‘abilitytolearn’, modelledasthetechnologicale¢ciencywith
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whichlearninge¤ortandresourcesaugmentthevalueofhumancapital.1 N otsurprisingly, themodelpredictsthatmoreableindividualschoosetoundertakegreaterhumancapitalinvestments, especiallyearlyoninthelife-cycle, andthatlearninge¤ortdeclinesovertime. D uringyouth, less ableindividuals tendtoearnmore(as theydevotemoretimetoworkratherthanlearning), butmoreableindividualshaverapidlyrisingearningpro…lesthatsoonovertakethoseofthelessable. Inaddition, dispersioninearningsacrosseducationalgroupstendstogrowovertime. T hesepredictionsarebroadlyconsistentwiththeevidence;e.g., seeL illard(19 7 7 ).
W hilethebasicB en-Porathmodelprovidesaplausibleexplanationforwhyearnings pro…les mightdi¤er, beforeonecan becon…dentthatabilitydi¤er-ences are atthe rootofinequality itwould be prudenttoexaminewhetherthemodelis consistentwith otherfacts, forexample, on laboursupply, con-sumption, andassetaccumulation behaviour. Inordertoexaminethis issue,thebasicmodelmustbeextendedtoincorporatealabour-leisurechoiceandaconsumption-savingdecision. Suchanextensionhas beenprovidedbyB linderand W eiss (19 7 6), H eckman(19 7 6), and R yder, Sta¤ordandStephan (19 7 6).Judgingbywhatis reported intherecentsurveyby N ealand R osen (19 9 8),theseversionsoftheBen-Porathhumancapitalmodelrepresenttheextenttowhichthistheoreticalset-uphascurrentlyprogressed.
B linderandW eiss (19 7 6) andR yder, Sta¤ordandStephan(19 7 6) arepri-marilyconcernedwithexploringwhatsortoflife-cycledynamicsmightemergeinsuchanenvironmentfora‘representative’individual.2 H eckman(19 7 6) re-portstheresultsofseveralcomparativedynamicsexercises, butdoesnotalwaysprovideafulldescriptionofjointbehaviour. Forexample, he…nds thatindi-vidualswithgreaterlearningabilityhavepeaks intheirhoursofworkpro…lesatolderages, butwearenottoldhowthesepro…les arepositionedrelativetoeachother. A swell, hedoesnotaskhowdi¤erences inabilitya¤ect…nancialassetaccumulation.
T hepurposeofourpaperisexplorewhatthisenvironmenthastosayabouthowlife-cyclepatternsofconsumption, learning, laboursupply, earnings, incomeandassetaccumulationshouldbeshapedasafunctionofparametersdescribingtastes and abilities. In this paper, we focus on three sources ofparameterheterogeneity: (1)theabilitytolearn;(2)thesubjectiverateoftime-preference;and(3) thetasteforleisure. W ewishtodiscover…rstofallwhetheranysinglesourceofparameterheterogeneitymightbeabletoaccountforthequalitativedi¤erences thatweobserveinthedata. O urpreliminary…ndings suggestthatnosingle sourceofparameterheterogeneitycan accountforthefacts. N ext,weaskwhetherthereareplausiblecombinationsofparameters thatmightbeabletoexplainthedata. O urpreliminary…ndings suggestthatthemodelisbroadlyconsistentwith theevidence ifweassumethatpeopledi¤erin theirrateoftime-preferenceandtheirtasteforleisure;and iftheseparametersare
1 A notherwaytomodellearningabilityis intermsofinitialendowmentsofhumancapital.2Evidently, averyrichandcomplexsetofdynamics is possible.
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positivelycorrelatedamongindividuals.
1.1 SomeFacts
Inthis section, wedescribewhat‘typical’(median) life-cyclepro…les looklikeacrossthreeeducationalgroups: dropouts;highschool;andcollege. T hedataisfromtheCanadian19 9 2 FamilyExpenditureSurveyPublicU seFile(FA M EX )andisdescribedinalittlemoredetailin A ppendixI. W ealsoreviewevidencefrom A ttanasio(19 9 4) whoreports similarmeasurements from the19 9 0 Con-sumerExpenditureSurveyfortheU nitedStates.
1.2 Income, ConsumptionandSaving
Figure 1 plots measures ofafter-tax income, consumption expenditures, andsavingforeacheducationalgroupovertenperiodsofalife-cyclebeginningatage21 andendingatage7 0. N otsurprisingly, morehighlyeducatedindividualshavesigni…cantlymoreincomeateveryageexceptforveryearlyinthelife-cycle. T heage-incomepro…lefordropouts displaysamodesthump-shapedpattern, withincomepeakingage52 atalevelthatis 1 :65 timeshigherthanatage21. T heage-incomepro…leforcollegegraduates, ontheotherhand, displaysasigni…canthump-shaped pattern, with incomepeakingatage 52 atalevelthatis 2:88timeshigherthanatage21. A ccordingtothisdata, collegegraduatesgenerateroughlytwicetheincomeofdropoutsaroundthepeakincomeyears. A ttanasio(19 9 4) reports similar…ndings forthe U nited States. In particular, medianincomepeaks inthe51–55 year-oldcohort, withcollegegraduates generating2.84timesmoreincomethandropouts.
Q ualitatively, itappears thatconsumptiontracks disposableincomefairlycloselyinthesenseofsharingthesamehump-shapedpattern. T hisfactthathasbeenreferredtoasthe‘consumption-incomeparallel’(seeCarrollandSummers,19 9 1)andissometimesusedasanargumenttorejectthebasiclife-cyclemodel,whichpredicts a‡atage-consumptionpro…le. A ttanasioandBrowning(19 9 5)arguethattheconsumption-incomeparallellargelyre‡ects family-sizee¤ects.U sing severalyears ofU .K. FES data tofollowcohorts through time, theyreproduce the …ndingthatconsumption and incomemove togetheroverthelife-cycle. H owever, de‡atingconsumptionbyanadult-equivalentscalerendersacompletely‡atlife-cyclepathforadjustedconsumption. O ntheotherhand,G ourinchasandParker(19 9 9 ) arguethatwiththeiradjustments, consumptioncontinuestodisplayahump-shape.
T hebottom panelofFigure 1 displays household saving, de…nedhereasthedi¤erencebetweenhouseholdafter-taxincomeandhouseholdconsumption.A ccordingtothis measureofsaving, themedianhouseholdofeacheducationgrouparenetsaversoverthelife-cycle(atleast, uptoage7 0). H ighereducationgroupstendtosavemore, bothintotalandasaratiooftheirdisposableincome.
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In fact, thepropensitytosaveremains fairlyconstantfrom age32 onwardinthis data. O vertheentirelife-cycle, savingrates average 8:8% fordropouts,1 0 :6% forhighschoolgraduates, and 1 9:6% forcollegegraduates.
T heFA M EX datasetprovides aseries called‘netchangeinassets’whichdi¤ers (empirically, notconceptually) somewhatfrom the savingmeasurere-portedabove. Q ualitatively, thenet-change-in-assets series is similarin thathighereducationgroups tendtosavemoreovertheentirelife-cycle. Butac-cordingtothismeasure, themediansavingfordropouts is prettyclosetozeroovertheentirelife-cycleandthemediansavingforhighschoolgraduates isnotverymuchlarger. Inaddition, thelevelofsavingbycollegegraduates isabouthalfofwhatisrecordedbytheearlierde…nitionofsaving.
T hesavingbehaviourreported inFigure1 is broadlyconsistentwithSCFandPSID dataonwealthaccumulationpatternsacrosseducationalgroups. A c-cordingtoCagetti (19 9 9 ), mediannetworthpositions (includinghousingbutabstractingfrompensionentitlements)areverylowandsimilaracrossindividu-alsatage30. W hileallthreeeducationalgroupstendtosaveovertheentirelife-cycle, therateofassetaccumulationismuchhigherforwell-educatedindividu-als. B yage60, themediandropouthasaccumulatedroughlybetween$60,000–9 0,000;themedianhigh-schoolgraduatehasbetween$125,000–180,000;andthemediancollegegraduatehas between$250,000–300,000.3 Inotherwords, toa…rstapproximation, eachlevelofeducationisassociatedwithadoublingofnetworthinoldage.
1.3 Earnings, L abourSupplyandW ages
Figure2 plotsmeasuresofearnings, laboursupply, andwages foreacheduca-tionalgroupovertenperiodsofalife-cyclebeginningatage21 andendingatage7 0. A gain, itisnotsurprisingtodiscoverthatbettereducatedindividualstendtohavehigherlife-cycleearnings. A ge-earningpro…les tendtodisplayamorepronouncedhump-shapedpatternrelativetoincome, partlybecauseearningsdrop signi…cantlyaspeopleapproacholdage.
T henexttwopanelsinFigure2 revealthatbettereducatedindividualshavehigherearnings earlyon inthelife-cyclebecausetheyallocatemoretimethemarketsector;i.e., notbecausethepecuniaryreturntolabourishigher. W ageratestendtogrowovertimeforalleducationgroups, butgrowmorequicklyforthebettereducated. L aboursupplypro…les riseearlyon inthelife-cycleandthen‡attenout, showingamodestdeclineasthehouseholdages;this patternholds foralleducation groups. T hemain di¤erence in laboursupply acrosseducationgroupsissimplyintermsoflevels: collegegraduatesworkonaverageabouttwiceashardadropouts.
3T he …gures are in 19 9 2 dollars. T he lowerbound is from the SCF;the upperbound isfrom theP SID .
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1.3.1 TheR eturnonEducation
T hereis alargeempiricalliteratureconcernedwithmeasuringthe‘return’toeducation;thisliteraturehasrecentlybeensurveyedbyCard(19 9 8). T hestan-dardeconometricmodeltakentothedatais usuallysomevariantofM incer’s(19 7 4) ‘humancapitalearningsfunction’thatrelatessomemeasureoflogearn-ings(logy)tosomemeasuresofeducationalattainment(S)andworkexperience(X );togetherwithastatisticalresidual(");e.g.,
logy=a+ bS + g(X )+ ": (1)
A pparently, itis nowconventionaltorefertothe estimated parameterbasthe‘returntoeducation’. T ypically, thereturntoeducation is foundtovarywith certain characteristics ofindividuals, such as ‘ability’and ‘familyback-ground’. Cardargues thattheempiricalspeci…cationabove, withgmodelledasathirdorfourthdegreepolynomial, providesareasonablygood…twiththedata, although, contrarytothe speci…cation in (1), theredoes appeartobesomeevidenceofaninteractionbetweeneducationandexperience.
W hen logannualearnings areregressed on education and othercontrols,theestimatedreturn toeducation is thesum ofthebcoe¢cients forparallelmodels…ttothelogofwages(logw)andthelogofannualhours(logh):H ere,wereproduceCard’s (19 9 8) Table 1, which reports theestimatedreturns toeducationusing(1) …ttothe19 9 4–9 6CPS.
D ependentVariablelogw logh logy
M enb 0.100 0.042 0.142R 2 0.328 0.222 0.403
W omenb 0.109 0.056 0.165R 2 0.247 0.105 0.247
T hus, Cardconcludes thatintheU .S. labourmarketinthemid-19 9 0s, abouttwo-thirdsofthemeasuredreturntoeducation inannualearnings datais at-tributabletothee¤ectofeducationonthewagerate, withtheremainderat-tributabletothee¤ectonannualhoursworked.
1.4 D ataSummary
T hereadershouldkeepinmindthatthereareseveralpracticaland(unresolved)conceptualissues relatingtothemeasurementofthesevariables; see B rown-ingand L usardi (19 9 6) fordetails. B utdespite the quantitative di¤erencesthatemergedependingonhowvariablesarede…nedormeasured, anumberof
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qualitativefeaturesappeartoberobustacrossdi¤erentdatasetsanddi¤erentde…nitions/measurements. T heimportantqualitativedi¤erencesareasfollows:
1. Individuals ofagivenagedi¤erinterms ofaccumulatedhumancapital(e.g., asmeasuredbyeducationalattainment).
2. Individualswhoinvestheavilyinhumancapital(bettereducatedindivid-uals) tendtohavehigherincomes, earnings, consumption, andsavings;
(a) H igherearningsareattributabletobothhigherwagerates(2/3)andgreaterworke¤ort(1/3);
(b) H ighersavingsattributabletohigherincomesandagreaterpropen-sitytosave.
3. T hedispersion in income, earnings, consumption, andsavingacross ed-ucationalgroups peaks sometimeinthemiddleofthelife-cycle;thedis-persioninlaboursupplyandsavingratesremainsrelativelyconstant;andthedispersioninwagerates is (weakly) increasingwithage.
W ewishtofocus onthesequalitativefeaturesofthedataandaskwhetherasensiblyparameterized life-cyclemodel(thatendogenizes human capitalandlaboursupply) canaccountforthesequalitativepatterns.
2 TheM odel
ConsideraneconomypopulatedbyoverlappinggenerationsofindividualswholiveforJperiods, indexedbyj=1 ;2;:::;J:T hepopulationisassumedtogrowataconstantratenperperiod, andwedenotetheshareofage-j individualsinthepopulationby¹j;whichistime-invariantandsatis…es ¹j =(1 + n)¡1 ¹j¡1forj=2;:::;Jand
PJj=1 ¹j=1 :
T hereisanissueastowhetheridiosyncraticrisksplayanimportantroleintheevolutionoflife-cyclevariables. O urfeelingonthis matteris that, whileidiosyncraticrisks may be important, they are notdominant. T his viewissupportedbytheempiricalworkofVenti andW ise(2000), whoinvestigatethequestionofwhythedispersionofwealthatretirementages is sogreat. T heseauthors arguethat90 % ofthevariationobserved inretirementwealth is duetothedi¤erentchoicesthatpeoplemakeandnottoidiosyncraticluck. Intheanalysisbelow, weabstractfrom uncertainty.
Individualshavepreferencesde…nedoverdeterministictime-pro…lesofcon-sumptioncj, leisurelj, aswellasa…nalnetworthpositionaJ+ 1 (bequeathedtothefuturegeneration);letpreferencesberepresentedbytheutilityfunction:
JX
j=1
±j¡1 [U (cj)+ ¸V (lj)]+ ÂB (aJ+ 1):
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A ssumethatthefunctionsU ;V andB areallstrictlyconcaveandthattheysat-isfystandardInadaconditions;wewilltreatthesefunctionsascommonacrossindividuals. Preferences areparameterizedbythediscountfactor±;thetasteforleisure¸;andthestrengthofthebequestmotiveÂ;individualsmayormaynotdi¤eralongthesedimensions. N ote: in this version ofthepaper, weset =0 :
T herearethreeusesfortime: marketworkn;learninge¤orte;andleisurel;wheren+ e+ l=1 (andtheusualnon-negativityconstraints). L ethdenotehumancapital. Peoplemightdi¤erintheirinitialendowmentofhumancapital(onemeasureofdi¤erences inability). A person’shumancapitalisassumedtoaugmenttime-useinworkingandlearning;measuredin‘e¢ciencyunits’, worke¤ortequalshnandlearninge¤ortequalshe:
FollowingH eckman (19 7 6), thehumancapitalaccumulationtechnology isgivenby:4
hj+ 1 =(1 ¡¾)hj + ®G(hjej);
whereG isstrictlyincreasingandconcave, ¾ isthedepreciationrateonhumancapital, and® isaparameterthatindexes‘learningability’. W ewillassumethatG and ¾ arecommonacross households;however, ® maydi¤er. L etv denotethevectorofparametersdescribingaparticularindividual;i.e. v=(®;±;̧ ):
T herearetwoprices inthemodel. L et!denotethepriceofane¢ciencyunitoflaborandletR denotethe(gross) realrateofinterestpaidon…nancialassets. Bothofthesepriceswillbedeterminedbymarketclearingconditionsinthegeneralequilibrium. N otethatlaborearningsaregivenby!hn;sothatw=!hcanbeinterpretedastherealwage.
IndividualscansaveorborrowfreelyatthegoinginterestrateR (therearenodebtconstraints beyondtheend-periodrestrictionaJ+ 1 ¸ 0 ). T heassetaccumulationequationisgivenasfollows:
aj+ 1 =R aj + wjnj¡cj;
O ptimaldecision-makingresults in adesired pro…lefcj;nj;ej;lj;aj+ 1 ;hj+ 1 j!;R ;vgJj=1 :
W hatremainsnowisthedeterminationofprices. Inasteady-state, thepercapitacapitalstockisgivenby:
K=(1 + n)¡1JX
j=1
¹jX
v
aj(v)¤(v);
4N otethatwearenotmodellingtheschoolingchoiceperse. W hatweareassumingisthatindividuals in thedatawhoattend schoollongerarelikelytoinvestmoreheavily in humancapitalatallstages ofthelife-cycle. T otheextentthatthis is true, we can then associatepeople in themodelwith higherlevels ofhuman capitalwith people in the datawhohavehighereducation.
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where¤(v)represents thefractionofthepopulationwithparametervectorv:T hepercapitalevelofhours(measuredine¢ciencyunits) isgivenby:
H=JX
j=1
¹jX
v
hj(v)nj(v)¤(v)
O utputisproducedbyaconstantreturnstoscaleproductiontechnologyQ =F (K;H):Equilibrium pricesaredeterminedbytheusualmarginalconditions:
! = F H(K;H)R = F K(K;H)+ 1 ¡Á;
whereÁ isthedepreciationrateofphysicalcapital. Finally, goods-marketclear-ingrequires:
C + (n+ Á)K=Q ;
where,
C =JX
j=1
¹jX
v
cj(v)¤(v):
2.1 Parameterization
FunctionalformsarerequiredforU ;V;G and F :
U (c) = (1 ¡° )¡1 [c1¡° ¡1 ]V (z) = (1 ¡´)¡1 [z1 ¡́ ¡1 ]G(x) = x³
F (K;H) = KµH1¡µ:
3 Calibration
A tthis stage, wedonothavethetimetocalibrateorestimatethemodelaspreciselyaswewouldlike. So, wewillcontentourselveswitharoughcalibration.W ecalibrate…rsttoa‘representative’individual;theparametersarechosenasfollows.
3.1 D emographics
L etthenumberofperiodsbeJ=1 1 ;thelengthofaperiodis…veyears(thinkofpeoplebeginningtheireconomiclifeatage20 andlivingto7 0). T hepopulationgrowthrateissetton=0 ;sothat¹j=1 =Jforallj:
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3.2 Preferences
T hecurvatureparameteron U is chosen tobe ° = 1 :5 (a standardchoice).T he curvatureforV is alsochosen tobe ´ = 1 :5: T heweightingfactorforleisureischosentobe¸ = 1 :752;this generates theresultthatroughly 1 =3 ofavailabletimeis devotedtothelabourmarket. T hediscountfactoris chosentobe±=0 :86;whichimpliesanannualdiscountrateof3%:
3.3 Technology
T helearningabilityparameterissetto® =0 :40 ;thisimpliesthatyoungpeoplespendaround10% oftheiravailabletimeinlearningactivities. T hecurvatureofthelearningtechnologyistakenfrom H eckman(19 7 6);³= 0 :70 :T heshareofphysicalcapitalintotaloutputissettoµ=0 :35:Physicalcapitaldepreciatesatanannualrateof1 2%;setÁ = 0 :48: A ssumethathumancapitaldoes notdepreciate;¾ =0 :
3.4 Endowments
T hehumancapitalendowmentisnormalizedtoh1 =1 :
4 R epresentativeIndividual
In Figure3 weplotthe life-cycle behaviouroftherepresentative individual;i.e., theequilibrium basedontheparameterizationabove. A sFigure3reveals,themodeldoesaverynicejobofreplicating‘typical’life-cyclebehaviour, withthepossibleexceptionoftheveryaged. Inparticular, themodelpredictsthatconsumptioncontinuestorisethroughoutthelife-cycle;thedatasuggestsoth-erwise. A swell, inthemodel, individualsdissaveinoldagemuchmorerapidlythan inthedata(weonlyplotthe…rst10 periodsofthe13periodlife-cycle).T his lastfeaturecould presumablyberecti…ed by incorporatingthebequestmotive.
5 SingleSourcesofH eterogeneity
In this section, we shallconsiderthree separate sources ofheterogeneityandevaluatehoweach, in isolation, is predictedtoa¤ectlife-cyclebehaviour. T hethreeparametersweconsiderare: (1) theabilitytolearn, ®;(2) thediscountfactor, ±;and (3) thetasteforleisure, ¸:Foreach case, wewillmodelthreetypes, representinghigh, medium, andlowvalues, with 50 % ofthepopulationtakingonthemedium value, andtheother50 % evenlydividedacrossthetwo
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extremevalues. Inequilibrium, eachtypeofpersonwillchooseadi¤erentlife-time learningpro…le;welabelthegroup with thegreatestlife-time learninge¤ort‘collegegraduates’andthosewiththelowest‘dropouts’.
5.1 TheD i¤erent-A bility H ypothesis
Supposethatindividualsdi¤eronlyintheirabilitytolearn;e.g., ® =0 :32;0 :40 ;0 :48:T heresults areplotted in Figure4. N otsurprisingly, thosewith thehighestlearningabilitybecome‘collegegraduates’.
O bservethattheearningspro…lestaketheexpectedshapeinthesensethatthosewith lowlearningabilityhavehigherearnings when young(relativetohighlearningabilitytypes), andrelativelylowerearningswhenold. T hisbasicqualitativepatternisalsohighlightedinN ealandR osen(19 9 8, Figure4.2), whoremarkthatthis U -shapedrelationship betweencohortearnings varianceandcohortageisanimportantthemeintheliteratureonhumancapital. H owever,this U -shaped pattern is notpresentin ourdata, possiblybecausebyage21(theyoungestageinoursample)wearealreadybeyondtheminimumdispersionpoint. A bility di¤erences seem togenerate the righttype oflife-cyclewagepatterns, butlaboursupplypro…lesarequalitativelysimilaronlyafterperiod3(age32).5
T hemostglaringde…ciencyinthe“D i¤erent-A bilityH ypothesis” iswhatitimpliesforassetaccumulationbehaviour. A ccordingtothemodel, individualswith lowlearningability (dropouts) willaccumulate …nancialassets rapidly,whilethosewithhigh learningability (college) arepredictedtoholdnegativenet-worthpositionsformostoftheirlife.
T hemodel’s logicis perfectlyclear. W ealthtakestwoforms inthismodel:humanwealthand…nancialwealth. L owabilityindividuals naturallywishtosubstituteintotheaccumulationof…nancialwealth, whilehighabilityindivid-uals allocatetheirresources towardaccumulatinghumancapital. L ateron inthelife-cycle, thosewhoarerichinhumancapitalworkhardertoexploittheirrelativelyhighskilllevels, whilethosewhoarerichin…nancialwealthcana¤ordtoconsumemoreleisure.
5.2 TheD i¤erent-D iscount-Rate H ypothesis
T he ideathatpeopledi¤erin theirdegreeof‘patience’, andthatthis mightexplainmuchoftheheterogeneityobserved in economicbehaviour, is an oldone (e.g., see R ae, 1834). H ere, we considerthree rates oftime-preference(annualized) equalto: 0 :0 275;0 :0 30 ;and 0 :0 325;the results are displayed inFigure5.
5 M easured hours ofworkhere is totalhours worked plus time spentlearning, exceptforthoseaged21 and in college. T he ideahere is thattrainingis undertakenwhileon thejob.
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In amodelwithoutleisure, di¤erentdiscountrates would havenoe¤ecton thelevelofhuman capitalinvestment(assumingperfectcapitalmarkets).H owever, when leisure is endogenous andwhen personaltime is anecessaryinputtolearning, di¤erencesinthesubjectiverateoftime-preferencewillinducedi¤erentlevels oflearninge¤ort. B ecause learningis a form ofinvestment,onemightnaturally expectthatrelatively patientindividuals would end upaccumulatingmorehumancapital. Somewhatsurprisingly, themodelpredictsthattheleastpatientindividualswillaccumulatethemosthumancapital;i.e.,impatiencehere is positivelycorrelatedwith the levelofeducation, althoughthedi¤erences intimedevotedtolearningaresmall. O nepossibleexplanationforthis resultmightlieinthefactthathumancapitalcannotbeconsumedorsoldasdeathapproaches, unlike…nancialcapital. Consequently, morepatientindividuals(whowhenyoungplaceagreaterweightonend-of-lifeconsumption)mightprefertoaccumulatewealth throughavehiclethatis bettersuited toprovidingforoldageconsumption. Inaddition, themorepatientplaceagreaterweightonfutureleisure;and…nancialassetaccumulationratherthanhumancapitalcanbetterprovideforfutureleisure.
Inthemodel, patientindividuals (associatedherewithdropouts) prefertopostponeconsumptionandleisuretoalaterage;hence, theyconsumelittleandworkhardwhenyoung, sothatnetworthgrowsrapidly(althoughtheyremainrelativelyunskilled). A ccordingtothemodel, thereasonwhylaboursupplyisrelativelylowfordropouts inlatterstagesofthelife-cycleis becausetheyaresowealthy. N eedlesstosay, themodel’sexplanationhardlyseemsplausible.
5.3 TheD i¤erent-Taste-for-L eisure H ypothesis
Supposenowthatpeopledi¤eronlyintherelativeweighttheyplaceoncon-sumptionandleisureatanypointintime;here, weconsiderthefollowingthreevalues forthe leisureparameter: ¸ = 1 :54; 1 :74;and 1 :94: A ccordingtothemodel, thosewhoplacerelativelylowweightonleisurearetheoneswhoaccu-mulatemorehumancapital.
O utofthethreehypotheses consideredsofar, thetaste-for-leisurehypoth-esis seems toholdthemostpromise. In particular, thepro…les forearnings,hoursworkedandrealwagesarequalitativelysimilartoobservation. B utonceagain, themostglaringde…ciencyofthishypothesis iswhatitpredictsforassetaccumulationbehaviour: lowereducationgroupsdisplayagreaterpropensitytosave. A pparently, thosewhodonot…ndworkorschoolinge¤ortsopainfulpre-fertoaccumulatewealththroughhumancapital, ratherthanthrough…nancialassets.
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6 M ultipleSourcesofH eterogeneity
T hemainsourceoftension inthemodelis thatwhichseemstoexistbetweenhumancapitaland…nancialcapital;i.e., thesetwoformsofcapitalrepresental-ternativemechanismsbywhichtoaccumulatepurchasingpower. Consequently,ifoneisrelativelygoodataccumulatinghumancapital(whetheritisbecauseofhigherability, lesspatience, oragreatertasteforconsumption), thenonetendstosubstituteintohumancapitalattheexpenseof…nancialcapital. Inthedata,however, thepropensitytoaccumulatehumancapitalis positivelycorrelatedwiththepropensitytoaccumulate…nancialassets.
T heonlywaytogeneratethispositivecorrelationbetweenhumanand…nan-cialcapitalinvestmentis toconsidermultiplesourcesofheterogeneity. Inthissection, weconsidertwoeconomies: oneinwhichpeopledi¤erintheirlearningabilityandtheirdiscountrate;andoneinwhichpeopledi¤erintheirtasteforleisureandtheirdiscountrate. Forsimplicity, weassumeaperfectcorrelationbetweenthetwoparameters(sothattherewillcontinuetobeonlythreetypesofindividuals).
6.1 L earningA bilityandD iscountR ate
A ssumethatpeopledi¤erboth intheirabilitytolearnand intheirdiscountrate;andthatthediscountrate(discountfactor) is negatively(positively) re-latedwithlearningability. T hethreetypesofindividualsaredescribedbythefollowingparametercon…guration:
® ±T ype1 0.30 0.84Type2 0.40 0.86Type3 0.50 0.88
Inthemodel, individualswhohaveahighabilitytolearnandalowdiscountrate(Type3individuals) endupaccumulatinggreaterlevelsofhumancapital.T hehopehereisthatthehighlearningabilitywillresultinhighhumancapitalinvestmentsandthatthelowdiscountratewillresultinahighrateofsaving.T heresults aredisplayed in Figure 7 . A s the …gurereveals, this hypothesisholds somepromise. H owever, high-abilitypeoplestilltendtobenetdebtorsearlyoninthelife-cycle(theywishto…nancetheirhumancapitalinvestments).Increasingthedispersioninthetime-preferenceparametermayhelpalongthismargin;however, doingsowouldexacerbatethetiltsintheconsumptionpro…les(somethingwedonotseeinthedata).
6.2 TasteforL eisureandD iscountR ate
A ssumenowthatpeopledi¤erintheirtasteforleisureand intheirdiscountrate;andthatdiscountingispositivelyrelatedtothetasteforleisure. T hethree
12
typesofindividualsaredescribedbythefollowingparametercon…guration:
¸ ±T ype1 1.25 0.88T ype2 1.7 5 0.86Type3 2.25 0.84
Inthemodel, individualswhohavealowtasteforleisureandalowdiscountrate(highdiscountfactor)endupaccumulatinggreaterlevelsofhumancapital.A swiththeearlierexperiment, thehopehereisthatthelowtasteforleisurewillresultinhighlevelsofhumancapitalinvestmentswhilethelowdiscountratewillresultinahighrateofsaving. Figure8 demonstratesthatthishypothesishas agreatdealofpromise; this …gure …ts thedatabetterthan anyoftheexplanationsproposedsofar.
T heimplicationsofthishypothesisarepotentiallyprofound. Itarguesthat,whilepeoplemayappeartodi¤erintheirabilitytolearn, thisdi¤erencearisesnotfrom intrinsicdi¤erencesinlearningability(®);butfromthehumancapitalinvestmentsthatpeoplehavechosentomakeinthepast(rememberthatitisthee¢ciencyunitoflearninge¤orthethatenters intothelearningproductionfunction). A bilityhereis tobeinterpretedas themanifestationofhardworkandfrugal(forward-looking) tendencies.
7 D iscussion
W ebelievethatitis interestingtodiscoverwhatsortofintrinsicdi¤erences inpeoplemightcausethemtomakeverydi¤erenteconomicdecisions. Knowledgeoftheintrinsicstructureofheterogeneity(i.e., thedistributionofdeepparame-tervalues)canplayanimportantroleinthedesignofsocialpolicy. Forexample,ifheterogeneousdiscountingis foundtobeimportant, thenanyredistributivepolicyshouldlikelyincludeprovisionstomakeentitlementslegallyinalienable;seeA ndolfatto(2000). Ifitisfoundthatthetasteforleisuremattersmorethantheabilitytolearn in explainingthedata, thenwecanconcludethatpeopledi¤erin theirskills notbecauseofintrinsicabilitydi¤erences butbecauseofhowtheychosetoallocatetheirtimeinthepast. Ifmitigatingskilldi¤erences(earningsdi¤erentials) is apolicygoal, thensucharesultmightpointtoedu-cationsubsidies. O ntheotherhand, ifobservedheterogeneityis attributabletodi¤erences in endowments (…nancialbequests orinitialhumancapitallev-els), thenlump-sum transfersmaybethesuitableinstrumenttoimplementaredistributionpolicy.
13
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Household After-Tax Income
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Household Consumption
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Age (21-70 Years)
Household Saving(After-Tax Income Minus Consumption Expenditure)
FIGURE 1Canada 1992 FAMEX Data
14
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHigh SchoolCollege
Full Time Equivalent Weeks Worked per Worker
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Age (21-70 Years)
Wage Rate(Earnings Divided by Hours)
FIGURE 2Canada 1992 FAMEX Data
15
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
IncomeEarningsConsumption
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WorkWork+Training
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Net Worth0.36
0.40
0.44
0.48
0.52
0.56
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Wage Rate
FIGURE 3Representative Agent
16
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Income
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Consumption
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Measured Hours of Work
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Net Worth
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Wage Rate
FIGURE 4Differences in Learning Ability
17
14
16
18
20
22
24
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Income
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Consumption
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Measured Hours of Work
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Net Worth
35
40
45
50
55
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Wage Rate
FIGURE 5Differences in Time-Preference
18
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.24
0.28
0.32
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Income
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.24
0.28
0.32
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Consumption
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Measured Hours of Work
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Net Worth
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Wage Rate
FIGURE 7Negative Correlation Between the Rate of Time-Preference
and the Ability to Learn
19
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Income
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Consumption
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Measured Hours of Work
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Net Worth
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Wage Rate
FIGURE 6Differences in the Taste for Leisure
Figure1:
20
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Income
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Earnings
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Consumption
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Measured Hours of Work
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Net Worth
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DropoutsHighschoolCollege
Wage Rate
FIGURE 8Positive Correlation Between the Rate of Time-Preference
and the Taste for Leisure
21
A ppendixI: D ataD escription
T hedatacomefrom the19 9 2 FamilyExpenditureSurveyPublicU seFile(FA M EX ).W eselectedthosehouseholdswithnomorethan2 wageearnersandwiththereferencepersonreportingsomeeducation. A llstatisticsareweightedbytheFA M EX weightvariable.
H ouseholdsweregrouped into…ve-yearagecategories andthreeeducationcategories. M arriedhouseholdsweregroupedaccordingtothegreaterlevelofeducationandageofthespouses. T hatis, theagecategoryofthehouseholdis themaximum ofthetwospouses ages, and theeducation category is themaximum ofthe twospouses education levels. T he education categories, asdictatedinpartbythepublicuse…le, areless thanahigh-schooldegree, highschooldegreeandsomecollegeoruniversity, andauniversitydegreeormore.
T heFA M EX containsavariableequaltothetotalnumberofperson-weekswithinthehouseholdtakingintoaccounttheexitandentryofpersonsduringtheyear. Consumption andexpenditureareconverted to“perperson-week”unitsusingthisvariable.
T hedocumentationfortheFamilyExpenditureSurvey19 9 2 canbefoundat: http://130.15.161.7 4/webdoc/ssdc/cdbksnew/famex/famex9 2guide.txt
22
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14. M incer, Jacob (19 7 4). Schooling, Experience and Earnings, ColumbiaU niversityPress.
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