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REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OBANI. 070-0188

PU c reportmg burden tor On colecon of elormaton a e0mated to average I hour per response, mclu g me O tw rewing fosrt ucti eeab r eamcOing uxurg data souce. geewg &-Wmaiuiig me data noedec and oumpleting and reviwg the comecon of information. Sen omrnets regarding tm buden este at &W o0U aspect 01 tf cobclon of odrmatom

cluding suggesulor for reduching thue burdn, to Washington eadquar Sennnes. Directorate for Info.mation Operato and Reports. 1215 Jefferson Dave Hos ay. Side 1204. Alinglon.VA 2220-4302. and to fe Office of Management and Budget. Paperwork Peduction Profec (0704-0188). Washnglon. DC 20503.

1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED

I December 1991 Final Report, Nov 1990 - Dec 19914. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS

Prototyping Defense Systems

_. AUTHOR(S) C-MDA-903-89C-00036. Ar, O(S)T-G7-416

Karen W. Tyson, J. Richard Nelson, D. Calvin Gogerty,Bruce R. Hannon, Alec W. Salerno

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) S. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION

Institute for Defense Analyses REPORT NUMBER

1801 N. Beauregard Street IDA-D-1097Alexandria, VA 22311-1772

9. SPONSORINGMONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORINGOUSD(A)/AP&PI AGENCY REPORT NUMBERRoom 1E463, The Pentagon

Washington, DC

11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

12A. DISTRIBUTIONIAVAILABILITY STATEMENT 128. DISTRIBUTION CODE

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

13. ABSTRACT (Mazimum 200 words)

Prototyping helps to reduce technical risk in developing weapon systems. While it requires timeand money upfront, it allows the government to delay major funding commitments. Thus,prototyping is receiving increased attention now because of lower budgets. Technical risk is amajor cause of cost growth and schedule slip, and this paper investigates whether prototypingimproves cost and schedule outcomes. The paper develops a framework for examining the leveland purpose of prototypes. It examines cost growth and schedule slip for non-prototyped programsand prototypes of various levels and purposes. Results indicate that prototyping helps to makeprogram costs, particularly development costs, more predictable. Prototyped programs takesomewhat longer, but the differences may be due to technical complexity. Aircraft and tacticalmunitions have followed different prototyping strategies, with munitions' strategy being moresuccessful. The analysis provides the basis for prototyping guidelines for use by DoD.

14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

Weapons Systems, Acquisition, Military Aircraft, Prototypes, Tactical Weapons 5816. PRICE CODE

17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OFOF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT

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