linking climate variability and community outcomes through … · 2012. 3. 14. · justine klaver...
TRANSCRIPT
Linking Climate Variability and Community
Outcomes through Historical Analysis of
Extreme Weather and Disaster Events
Dr. Karen McDonald
CIPHI Manitoba Branch Fall Education Workshop September 15, 2011
Team of Investigators Colin L. Soskolne (PI)
Epidemiology
Karen McDonald Atmospheric Science
J. Peter Rothe Social Sciences
Karen E. Smoyer-Tomic Human Geography
Donald W. Spady Medicine
Justine Klaver Research Coordinator
Alexander Affleck Archive Researcher
Robyn Hyde-Lay Qualitative Research
Assistant
Tyler Daignault Scanner Operator
With recognition of the Health Policy Research Program,
Health Canada funding (HPRP #6795-15-2001/4400013)
Predictions for the Prairies
Low Soil Moisture
More Fires & Poor AQ
Unpredictable Flooding
Spread of Pests &Disease
Temperature-
related morbidity
& mortality
• Cold and heat related illnesses
• Respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses
• Increased occupational health risks
Health effects of
extreme weather
events
• Damaged public health infrastructure
• Injuries and illnesses
• Social and mental health stress due to disasters
• Occupational health hazards
• Preparedness and population displacement
Air pollution-
related health
effects
• Outdoor & indoor air pollutants, allergens
• Asthma and other respiratory diseases
• Heart attacks strokes and other cardiovascular diseases
• Cancer
Water-borne and
food-borne
contamination
• Enteric diseases
HEALTH IMPACTS
Vector-borne infectious
diseases Changed patterns of diseases caused by bacteria,
viruses and other pathogens carried by 8, ticks and
other vectors
Stratospheric ozone
depletion and increased
exposure to ultra-violet
radiation
• Skin damage and skin cancer
• Cataracts
• Disturbed immune function
Population
vulnerabilities
Seniors, Children, Poor health, Low income &
homeless, Traditional populations, Disabled,
Immigrant populations
Health and Socio-
Economic Impacts on
Community Health and
Well-being
• Changed determinants of health and well-being
• Global burden of disease
• Vulnerability of community economies
• Health co-benefits & risks of GHG reduction
technology
HEALTH IMPACTS
Seasonality of deaths in Canada, 1974–1994
(Trudeau, 1997)
Research Objectives Because the prediction of increasing extreme weather
events raises questions about an expected increase in pressure on social and health support systems, the objectives of this study were to:
1. Provide a hazard assessment of extreme events between 1960-
2000 in Alberta.
2. Identify consequences of extreme weather on morbidity, death, injury, and damages.
3. Correlate weather and disaster data with newspaper reporting.
4. Suggest how the combination of weather and health data can be used to advance the National Sustainable Development Strategy.
Study Design
• Extreme Weather
• Disasters
Identify
• News Search
• Content Analysis
Assess • Quantitative
• Qualitative
Correlate
1. Identification of Events Canadian Climate Archive National Disaster Database
Subsection Alberta stations by basin/newspaper & randomly select sites for investigation
Selected sites:
Fort McMurray, Vermillion, Red Deer, High River, and Coronation
Site specific identification of extreme conditions and specific events (temp, pptn)
Alberta only cases = 92
Included disasters:
Drought, heat wave, rainstorm, flood, fire, windstorm, cold wave, snowstorm
Omitted: hailstorm, tornado
For each location, dates then go
to the news research stage.
Underutilized source of epidemiological information
Provide context around an event = local experience
Provide situational information not found in administrative databases
Provide public perception of the event
Why Newspapers?
2. Assessing News Content Credibility
Language Use, Forms of Knowledge, Sources, Editors
Direct Health Outcomes morbidity, mortality, injury, disease
Indirect Health Outcomes economic costs, water issues, displacement, anguish, etc.
Response to the event
Solutions to address the event’s impacts
Adaptations arising from the event
Preparedness or warning for the event
Mental
Health
Official
Position
Facts Response 85 yr old male Cree died
during flood evacuation
RCMP state that flood
was a contributing factor
Residents rescued
by boat & helicopter
“I’m just panicking right now.”
Edmonton Journal, July 10, 1988
Response
Indirect
Outcome Prepared?
Town damage estimated
at $10M or more
Disaster services provided
emergency housing
Damage to hospital
was unexpected &
poses the bigger problem.
Claresholm Press, June 20, 1974
Risk
Identified
Insufficient water to cope
with emergency needs
3. Correlating Events and News Key Questions
Do newspapers report on the extreme events as defined by statistical analysis? Are the same events “extreme”?
Does the magnitude of the event increase news coverage?
Is there a seasonality to the news reporting?
Can those news reports provide qualitative information about the event impacts on health?
Rain Extreme Events
y = 7.4476x + 34.33
R2 = 0.1413
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
# News Articles
Rain
fall (
mm
)
Magnitude of Precipitation
Snow Extreme Events
y = 0.4569x + 18.149
R2 = 0.0135
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 5 10 15 20 25
# News Articles
Sn
ow
fall (
cm
)
Cold Extreme Events
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0 2 4 6 8 10
# News Articles
Min Temp (C)
Max Temp (C)
Snowfall (cm)
Linear (Min Temp
(C) )
Linear (Max Temp
(C) )
Extremes of Temperature
Hot Extreme Events
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
0 2 4 6
# News Articles
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1 Max Temp (C)
2 Max Temp (C)
3 Max Temp (C)
Max. RH 1
Linear (Max. RH 1)
Seasonality of Reporting Extreme Rainfall Events
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct
with news
without news
Extreme Snowfall Events
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
with news
without newsExtreme Daily Maximum Temperature Events
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
with news
without news
20
Validation Study with Mortality Dataset
Statistics Canada Daily Mortality data is available from 1950 to 2000 at the Census Sub-division level
Evaluated weather-related disasters associated with large numbers of deaths
News reports filled gaps making validation using mortality data easier
For example, 6 men died of heart attacks while shoveling snow.
Number of people died in Edmonton, Alberta
July 24 - Aug 7, 1987
0
10
20
30
40
24-
Jul
25-
Jul
26-
Jul
27-
Jul
28-
Jul
29-
Jul
30-
Jul
31-
Jul
1-
Aug
2-
Aug
3-
Aug
4-
Aug
5-
Aug
6-
Aug
7-
Aug
Day of Year 1987
Nu
mb
er D
ied
Number of people that died in Edmonton, Alberta
between July 24 and August 7, 1987
Health & Weather Implications Extreme Cold
Heavy Snowfalls
Heavy Rainfalls
Heat and Humidity
22
23
Research Products Completed reports to Health Canada: Research Report (500 pages, 2004) Summary Report ( 30 pages, 2004)
Three academic papers recently submitted : Archived Newspaper Reports as a Complementary Source
of Epidemiologic Data for Research into Climate Change: Alberta, Canada, 1960-2000
Human health effects from weather-related disasters in Alberta, Canada, 1960 through 2000
Linking News Coverage to Historical Extreme Weather Events: Alberta, Canada, 1960-2000
Other Prairie Regions – Manitoba?
Other Public Health Issues?
Other Suggestions?
Thank you