lloyds bank optimising liquidity and yield
TRANSCRIPT
OPTIMISING LIQUIDITY & YIELD SME
April 2016
BEYOND CREDIT RATINGS
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Output
Qualitative Factors
Credit Ratings
Institution/Limits
Liquidity Funding Lending Exposure
6 Factor Quantitative Framework
Basel III
Relationship strength, operational reach, news flow and ease of business
Input
Combining traditional measures with these factors provides a strong framework to set counterparty limits
Market Data
Capital Buffer
Regulatory Environment
An approach to assessing and monitoring your bank limits beyond traditional Credit Ratings
LOW RISK BUSINESS MODEL
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Increasing recognition of balance sheet strength and de-risking through best in peer group CDS*
Apr-2012 101 301 15 417Apr-2013 50 156 15 221Apr-2014 53 74 15 142Apr-2015 57 60 15 132Apr-2016 59 102 15 176
15/04/16
EXAMPLE: 5YR Wholesale Deposit (bps)
PERIOD 3MTH LIBOR
LLOYDS BANK CDS
ARRANGEMENT FEE TOTAL DIFFERENTIAL
Source: Bloomberg Data & Lloyds Bank analytics as
-241
Lloyds Bank PLC 102.497Banco Santander SA 124.779Santander UK PLC 90.456Barclays Bank PLC 125.947Royal Bank Of Scotland PLC 124.573HSBC Holdings PLC 98.39
Source: Bloomberg Data as at 15/04/16
INSTITUTION CDS (bps)
*CDS: A credit default swap is a particular type of swap designed to transfer the credit exposure of fixed income products between two or more parties.
SUMMARY OF RISK FACTORS
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
Lloyds Bank PLC £49,303.71 16 4.80% 13.00% A1 P-1 A+ F1 A A-1 102.497Banco Santander SA £46,678.65 18 4.70% 10.05% A3 P-2 A- F2 A- A-2 124.779Santander UK PLC N/A N/A 4.00% 11.60% A1 P-1 A F1 A A-1 90.456Barclays Bank PLC £28,191.15 40 4.20% 11.10% A2 P-1 A F1 A- A-2 125.947HSBC Holdings PLC £88,486.56 9 5.00% 11.90% Aa2 P-1 AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ 98.39Royal Bank Of Scotland PLC £26,773.86 44 5.60% 15.50% A3 P-2 BBB+ F2 BBB+ A-2 124.573
15/04/16
FITCH S&P'S
CDS
Source: Bloomberg data as of
INSTITUTION MARKET CAP (MN)
MARKET CAP
(RANKING) (1)
LEVERAGE RATIO (2)
FULLY LOADED TIER 1 (3)
MOODY'S
A typical risk summary used by treasury teams to help determine Bank limits for deposits
3. The Fully Loaded Tier 1 Ratio measures a bank's core equity capital compared with its total risk-weighted assets. This provides a form of measure of a bank's capital adequacy or financial strength.
1. Ranking is based on the largest market capitalised banks (1731) in the world
2. The Basel III leverage ratio is defined as the Capital Measure (the numerator) divided by the Exposure Measure (the denominator), with this ratio expressed as a percentage. The basis of the calculation is the average of the three month-end leverage ratios over a quarter. The ratio provides a form of measure of the bank’s capital compared with its financial leveraging and the bank’s ability to meet financial obligations.
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HSBC Bank PLC Lloyds Bank PLC Santander UK PLC Banco Santander SA Barclays Bank PLC RBS PLC
Fitch (review date 19th May 2015) Moody's (review date 28th May 2015) S&P (review date 9th June 2015)
FITCH LONG TERM SENIOR DEBT RATING OF LLOYDS BANK PLC & LLOYDS BANKING
GROUP UPGRADED TO ‘A+’ FROM ‘A’ (19TH MAY 2015)
MOODY’S LONG-TERM SENIOR DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS OF LLOYDS BANK PLC
CONFIRMED AT ‘A1 / P-1’ & OUTLOOK UPGRADED TO POSITIVE (28TH MAY 2015)
S&P LLOYDS SENIOR DEBT RATING ARRIFMED AT ‘A’ (OUTLOOK STABLE) ON
CONCLUSION OF SOVEREIGN SUPPORT REVIEW (9TH JUNE 2015)
CREDIT RATING AGENCIES ACTIONS 2015
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AA-
Aa2
AA-
A+ A1
A A
A1
A A A2
A- A- A3
BBB+
A3
BBB+ BBB+
One notch upgrade One notch downgrade
Revised rating landscape following Agencies removal of UK Bank assumed Sovereign support post implementation of BRRD regulation
Spain not yet adopted BRRD therefore not assessed
LOW RISK BUSINESS Mortgage credit quality continues to improve with book supported by employment trends and low interest rates
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LBG: Lloyds Banking Group LTV: Loan to Value HPI: House Price Index
Source: Lloyds Banking Group FY2015 Results.
Is the PRA satisfied that the bank is
failing or likely to fail?
Is the BoE satisfied that it is reasonably likely that action will
be taken that will result in the bank no
longer failing or likely to fail?
Does automatic write down or conversion of
capital instruments at the point of non-viability ensure the
firm is no longer failing or likely to
fail?
Does the BoE consider it is necessary to exercise a
stabilisation power having regard to the objectives of
the resolution regime?
Does the failing firm have protected
deposits?
Consider which tool, or combination
of tools, provides appropriate degree
of continuity of critical economic
functions
No action required by resolution
authority
Place firm into bank insolvency
procedure, for pay-out or transfer
Carry out chosen resolution strategy
No further action within the resolution
regime No
Yes
Stabilisation tools: • Private sector purchaser: transfer all or part of the business to a willing purchaser • Bridge bank: this is used to transfer all or part of the business to a subsidiary pending a future sale
or share issuance. • Bail-in: this is used to absorb the losses of a failed firm, and recapitalise that firm using the firm’s
own resources. The claims of shareholders and unsecured creditors are written down and/or converted into equity to restore solvency, in a manner that respects the hierarchy of claims in insolvency.
• Good Bank/Bad Bank: Separate clean and toxic assets allocated between good and bad bank through a partial transfer of assets and liabilities
January 2015: Banks that fail will have losses imposed on shareholders and creditors (including depositors) before being able to access alternate means of support
Yes Yes
No No No
Yes
Yes
No
• Private sector purchaser • Bridge bank • Bail-in • Good Bank/Bad bank
PRA: Prudential Regulation Authority BoE: Bank of England
Source: Bank of England’s approach to resolution, October 2014 www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/resolution/apr231014.pdf
BANK RECOVERY AND RESOLUTION DIRECTIVE (BRRD)
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Bail-in order of priority (from January 2015)
*Interest incurred post-insolvency and liquidators will only arise in the event of liquidation where both will belong to the holding company
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
6
10
Source: Bank of England’s approach to resolution, October 2014 www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/resolution/apr231014.pdf
Shareholders (ordinary shares)
Shareholders (preference shares)
Interest Incurred post-insolvency*
Unsecured subordinated creditors (eg subordinated bondholders)
Unsecured Senior Creditors
Floating charge holders
Preferential creditors (secondary)
Preferential creditors (ordinary)
Liquidators*
Fixed charge holders
BANK RECOVERY AND RESOLUTION DIRECTIVE (BRRD)
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Potential running order of a Bail In with supporting ring fence structure
Bail-In Waterfall (2)
12.0
2.1
Tier 2
ECN tier 2
Fully loaded CET1
Tier 1
18.8
2.7
1.4
10.3
Dec 2013 pro forma
4.4
CET1* and total capital vs. peers(1) (%)
2015 CAPITAL POSITION OF PEER BANKS
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Lloyds Banking Group is a strongly capitalised bank within its peer group with a £81bn Bail In buffer
Bail-In
£28.5bn
£19.5bn
£33.0bn
£222.0bn
£229.0bn
£33.0bn
Equity Capital
Sub Debt
Senior Unsecured greater than one year
Unsecured Funding (e.g. Corporate & Local Authority Deposits)
FSCS (Retail)
Secured Funding
£81BN
1) Peers are RBS, Barclays and HSBC as reported at Q3 2015 and Standard Chartered at HY 2015 2) Lloyds Banking Group as of 31st December 2015 3) LBG: 13.0% pro forma *CET1: A measurement of a bank's core equity capital compared with its total risk-weighted assets. This is the measure of a bank's financial strength.
£10 loss------------------ ------------------
£300 assets £290 assets £290 assets
£3 sub-debt
£2 sub-debt
£10 loss on assets
£10 loss on assets
£120 deposits
£128 other liabilities
£9 Equity
£40 senior liabilities of which £10 unsecured
£40 senior liabilities of which £10 unsecured
£33 senior liabilities of which £3
unsecured
£9 Equity
£120 deposits
£128 other liabilities
£120 deposits
£128 other liabilities
Worked Bail In Example
Bank PLC has a balance sheet worth £300, funded by equity of £9 and other liabilities of £291. Bank PLC incurs losses on its assets of £10, £9 of equity and £1 sub-debt are written down to absorb the £10 loss. This reduces the assets and liabilities to £290. The new balance sheet to meet the PRA’s capital requirements. The £9 of equity and £1 of sub-deb have been written off to absorb the £10 loss. Consequently, £7 of unsecured senior liabilities and £2 of sub-debt is converted to equity.
1 2 3
Source: Bank of England’s approach to resolution, October 2014 www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/resolution/apr231014.pdf
1
2
3
£300 £300 Net £290/Gross £300 £290 £290 £290
BANK RECOVERY AND RESOLUTION DIRECTIVE (BRRD)
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PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY (PRA) STRESS TEST SCENARIOS 2014
11 Sourced from the Bank of England site (16/12/2014). http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/fpc/keyelements.pdf
Annual GDP
Annual Inflation
Unemployment
HPI & CRE
Analysis of key metrics used by PRA
HPI: -35 CRE: -30%
+5.2%
-3.9%
+5.9%
-3.9% SCEN
ARIO
S C
APIT
AL
RU
LES
MET
HO
DO
LOG
Y
Key UK economic metrics (to trough): GDP (Gross Domestic Product): 3.9% CPI rate: 6.5% Unemployment: +5.2% HPI (House Price Index): -35% CRE (Commercial Real Estate) : -30% Base Rate: 4.25% Equities: -28% Market shock assessed against EBA (European Banking Authority) scenarios.
PRA implementation of CRDIV (Capital Requirement Regulation & Directive) Capital Rules as outlined in PS 7/13 No prudential filter applied for AFS assets Hurdle rates CET1 > 7% base, > 4.5% stress Leverage ratio > 3% in base. No hurdle in stress Dynamic balance sheet with deleveraging restrictions. No post 31-Dec capital actions included (balance sheet as of close 31 Dec 13) Securitisation & Market risk methodology aligned to EBA. No additional methodology restrictions
PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY (PRA) STRESS TEST SCENARIOS 2015
12 Sourced from Bank of England site (01/12/2015). http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/fpc/results011215.pdf
Analysis of key metrics used by PRA
-3.9%
SCEN
ARIO
S C
APIT
AL
RU
LES
MET
HO
DO
LOG
Y
Key UK economic metrics (to trough): Oil falls to USD 38p/b World GDP falls 7% from IMF World economical forecast China house prices – 35% Hong Kong CRE – 45% China GDP slows from 7.5% to 1.7% CPI rate: -1.0% UK house prices: -20% UK Base Rate: 0% CET1 ratio > 4.5% of RWAs New Threshold for 2015 – 3% of leverage exposure measure Stress scenario would reduce aggregate CET1 ratio across 7 banks from 11.2% to low of 7.6% in 2016 Aggregate Tier 1 leverage ratio falls from 4.4% at the end of 2014 to low of 3.5% in 2016
Designed to assess resilience of UK banks 2015 stress test has 3 main components: 1. Macroeconomic factors 2. Trade risk element of stress 3. Stressed projections for
potential misconduct In house modelling played a greater role than 2014 test
CPI and Bank Rate in the UK in the 2014 and 2015 stress scenarios
Differences in severity of GDP shocks between the 2014 and 2015 stress tests
Projected cumulative five-year impairment charges in China and Hong Kong
UK residential property price index and commercial real estate index in the 2014 and 2015 stress
scenarios
PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY (PRA) STRESS TEST – 2014 VS 2015
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4.7% 5.0%
3.9%
5.0% 4.6%
5.0%
3.5%
4.2% 3.6%
4.1%
2.4%
3.9%
2.0%
2.9%
4.1% 3.5%
3.0% 3.2% 2.6%
3.3%
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Lloyds Banking Group Royal Bank of Scotland HSBC Barclays Santander UK
Leverage Ratio Leverage Ratio (PRA Stressed)
PRA Stress Leverage Ratio Test Results
12.0%
13.7%
10.8%
12.7% 11.2% 11.8%
10.0% 11.1%
11.8% 11.7%
5.0%
9.5%
4.6% 5.9%
8.7%
7.0% 7.0% 6.8% 7.6%
9.5%
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Lloyds Banking Group Royal Bank of Scotland HSBC Barclays Santander UK
CET1 Ratio CET1 Ratio (PRA Stressed)
PRA Stress CET1 Ratio Test Results
Sourced from the Bank of England site (01/12/2015). http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Documents/fpc/results011215.pdf Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
BASEL III REPLACES INDIVIDUAL LIQUIDITY ADEQUACY STANDARD (ILAS)
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Key changes for Bank stress event buffer
*30 Day coverage period is called Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
Cash comes in 2 types
Basel III Coverage Period*
ILAS Coverage Period
Day 1 30 Days 94 Days
1
2
Current A/C Client A/C Cash Management
Call A/C Term / Notice Current A/C Client A/C Cash Management
* Subject to economic incentive guidelines for calculation of LCR
Operational Investment
Cash held contractually less than 30 days falls into the Basel III Coverage period
OUTFLOW COVERAGE: LIQUIDITY COVERAGE RATIO (LCR)
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LCR 1 day to 30 days coverage duration
Operational* Current A/C Client A/C Cash Mgmt
Investment Call A/C Current A/C Client A/C Cash Mgmt
Day 30 32 Days 95 Days
3 months 6 months Day 1
Notice A/C’s
25% Outflow
40% Outflow
Last 30 days of term deposits needs to be covered as
Investment at 40% * Subject to economic incentive guidelines for calculation of LCR
Until notice is given there is no coverage outflow
Cash held contractually less than 30 days is now less attractive to deposit takers
OUR PRODUCT GUIDE
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<3MTH
Call Account
Transactional Bank Account*
<3MTH Fixed Term Deposit
32 Day Notice Account
3-12MTH Fixed Term Deposit
12MTH Fixed Term Deposit
12MTH+ Fixed Term Deposit
OPERATIONAL CASH Generally required within 3 Months
for day to day business
CORE CASH Generally required between 3 to 12 Months not for day to day business
STRATEGIC CASH Generally not required for at least
12 Months
3-12MTH
12MTH+
*Transactional Bank Account is not provided by Financial Markets and is available from your Local Relationship Management Team
Deposit products available from Lloyds Banking Group
Description
Variable interest rate is paid on funds that remain committed on a rolling 32 day basis
Minimum of £10’000 and a maximum of £5,000,0001 can be withdrawn giving Lloyds Bank 32 calendar days’ notice, providing the remaining balance is over £10,000
Interest is calculated by reference to the Bank of England Bank Rate
32 Day Notice Accounts are available in GBP only
Benefits
Participate fully in any increase in the Bank of England Bank Rate.
Interest is paid to the account daily.
Limitations and Risks
The interest rate received on funds will decrease if the Bank of England Bank Rate decreases
Funds are committed for a minimum period of 32 calendar days
Once notice is given a Reversion Rate will be applied on the notice account balance. The Reversion Rate will apply for the entirety of the notice period.
32 DAY NOTICE ACCOUNT
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32 Day Notice Account that pays a variable interest rate and has improved return over 32 day Fixed Term Deposit for the same tenor
Quick Facts:
Account Type Notice Deposit
Currency GBP
Minimum Notice Period 32 Days
Interest Payment Frequency
Daily
Minimum Opening Balance
10,000 (£)
Minimum Withdrawal Amount
10,000 (£)
Minimum Account Balance
10,000 (£)
Maximum Account Balance1
5,000,000 (£)
GBP
Interest Rate2 Variable interest rate tracking BoE Bank Rate with an agreed margin.
Reversion Rate BoE Bank Rate
1. Larger amounts may be available at Lloyds Bank’s discretion 2. Indicative Interest Rate only. The Interest Rate will be agreed with you at account opening.
OPTION TO USE A LAYERED APPROACH
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You can chose to use our layering deposit solution that may deliver flexibility of liquidity
• The example above left shows an example rolling layered deposit approach where we take an example £1M portfolio, split out into 4 equal amounts and place into a 3, 6, 9 and 12 month deposits.
• On the maturity of each deposit there are two ways the deposits can be rolled:
1. Preserving current maturity Each deposit is then rolled at its maturity date into the same term. 2. Maximising Return When each deposit matures a new 12 month deposit is entered into. At any time there is a 3 month liquidity on ¼ of the portfolio.
0 5 10 15Months
250 250
250
250
Dep
osit
Siz
e £k
Rolling layered deposit – initial set up
0 5 10 15 20Months
Dep
osit
Siz
e £k
1. Rolling and preserving current maturity
0 5 10 15 20Months
Dep
osit
Siz
e £k
2. Rolling into 12 month deposits
This is a hypothetical illustration, actual results may vary
250 250
250 250 250
250 250 250 250
250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
250 250
250 25
250
250 250
250
250
250
CASH-FLOW VS YIELD PORTFOLIO REVIEW An approach to assessing cash-flow to potentially improve yield
Typical deposit portfolio:
Long Date (12m+)
Medium Date (3m – 11m)
Short Date (1 day – 3m)
Call
Operational
Long Date (12m+)
Medium Date (3m – 11m)
Call
Revised deposit portfolio:
• Enhanced blended return = Y%
Operational
Short Date (1 day – 3m)
Supports payment profile
Potential mix change but
still supports payment
profile
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Return on capital Return on capital
• Blended return = X%
• Or £x return sum
Please note this is for illustrative purposes only
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
MONTHLY CASH-FLOW TOOL EXAMPLE
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Change your return with Lloyds Bank
Returns are based on current Lloyds Bank deposits rates. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and potential returns and forecasts may not be achieved
UK OUTLOOK
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Source: Lloyds Bank International Financial Outlook, April 2016 Forecast may not be achieved.
Lloyds Banking Group house view on key rates
PROGRESS AGAINST STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
22
Source: Lloyds Banking Group FY2015 Results.
DISCLAIMER
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This presentation is for information purposes only. It is intended as a summary only and whilst it contains some information about the potential risks and benefits of various financial instruments it should not of itself, form the basis for any investment decision. Whilst Lloyds Bank has exercised reasonable care in preparing this presentation and any views, analysis or other information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds Bank Sales representative for clarification. Not all products or transactions will fulfill your requirements. You should be aware that any product or transaction which you enter into with us is, in the absence of any written agreement to the contrary, on the basis that you are able to make your own independent assessment and decision as to your requirements and whether that product or transaction fulfils those requirements. Your decision will be based on your own knowledge and experience and any professional advice which you may have sought in relation to the financial, legal, regulatory, tax or accounting aspects of the proposed product or transaction. Lloyds Bank, its directors, officers and employees accept no responsibility or liability for any loss (whether direct, indirect, consequential, loss of profit or damages) howsoever caused or howsoever arising, in relation to this presentation or any subsequent product or transaction entered into. Lloyds Banking Group plc and its subsidiaries may participate in benchmarks in any one or more of the following capacities; as administrator, submitter or user. Benchmarks may be referenced by Lloyds Banking Group plc for internal purposes or used to reference products, services or transactions which we provide or carry out with you. More information about Lloyds Banking Group plc’s participation in benchmarks is set out in the Benchmark Transparency Statement which is available on our website. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States (“US”) and is not being directed at persons who are located in the US or who are US Persons, as defined in Rule 902 of Regulation S under the U.S Securities Act 1933, as amended (altogether, “US Persons”). Lloyds Bank is a trading name of Lloyds Bank plc and Bank of Scotland plc, which are both subsidiaries of Lloyds Banking Group plc. Lloyds Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC327000. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority under registration numbers 119278 and 169628 respectively. (09.15).
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