lm – floods and other weather driven natural hazards project 1 floods and other weather driven...
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LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
1Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Ad de RooJutta Thielen
Ben GouweleeuwGian Franchello
Johan Van Der KnijffHannah Cloke
Guido Schmuck
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
• Increase flood warning time– European Flood Alert System
• 0-10 day leadtime; pre-warning to MS authorities– e.g. Elbe authorities: 24 hour forecast
• Decrease flood risk– Technical measures
• reservoirs• polders / retention areas• increase floodplain storage• increase dyke heights
– Environmental measures
• land use planning– catchment: (reforestation / afforestation, set
aside etc)– floodplain: re-allocation of flood prone
settlements• (long-term: combat climate change..)
Floods: potential actions
JRC:Scenariostudies
Oder & Meuse(IKSO, OderRegio)
JRC:European
FloodForecasting
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
JRC Catchment Information
System
TRANSNATIONAL CATCHMENTS
August 2002
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD
JRC European Data-Soil, Surface,
river catchment
system, …
Member States data-River dimensions,
Alert levels
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Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague
River
basin
management
River
basin
management0
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time step
Observed
Original
Afforestation
Meteo data-ECMWF-DWD-DMI…
LISFLOOD system
Flood
simulation &
forecasting
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
The LISFLOOD modelling system
• LISFLOOD-WB Water balance model initial conditions• LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation model scenarios• LISFLOOD-FF Flood forecasting model forecasting• LISFLOOD-FP Flood Inundation model inundation extent
Catchment-scale Floodplain-scale
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Waterbalance Model
daily time step
Flood Model
Hourly time step
Flood Plain Model
seconds time step
Spatial
Planning
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD : a distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model
• Division Rainfall/Snow
• Interception
• Evapotranspiration
• Leaf drainage
• Snow melt
• Glacier melt
• Soil freezing
• Infiltration
• Vertical soil moisture redistribution
• Sub-surface lateral flow
• Groundwater recharge
• Groundwater flow
• Infiltration excess overland flow
• Saturation excess overland flow
• River channel flow (kinematic and diffusion/dynamic wave)
• Reservoir operations
• Retention storage (polders
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD input and output examples
DEM
Land Cover
Soil Type
Precipitation
Discharge Coefficient
SourceAreas
LIS
FLOOD
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD: Main Principles I
• Rainfall: inverse distance interpolation. Altitude correction.• Snowmelt: degree-day method. Altitude correction for
Temp.• Interception: storage approach, based on LAI, using
equations of Von-Hoyningen-Huene, Merriam and Aston• Daily extra-terrestrial radiation: Angot• Daily incoming solar radiation: Angstrom, Supit or
Hargraeves• Evapotranspiration: Penman-Monteith, using dynamic LAI
based on satellite images
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD: Main Principles II
• Soil Freezing: degree-day method (Molnau & Bissell)• Infiltration: Smith-Parlange equation• Saturation excess overland flow• Soil water redistribution between 2 soil layers: Equilibrium
method, using van Genuchten hydraulic conductivity curves • Subsurface lateral flow • Percolation to groundwater: based on (Un)saturated
conductivity of soil layer 2 and Darcy• Groundwater: two-store approach, routing along LDD
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD: Main Principles III
• Routing: kinematic wave and Mannings equation for overland flow and channel flow along LDD; dynamic wave for large rivers
• Floodplain and river cross section dimensions are used
• Reservoirs simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified reservoir
• Retention areas simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified retention area
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Use of satellite images for land use type and soil cover
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0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360Julian Day
arable land
broad-leaved forest
IRS-WIFS used toobtain seasonalvariation in coverfor each Corine landcover type
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Soil maps 1:250.000 Oder
Topsoil texture
Depth to bedrock
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Soils: how we use them in LISFLOOD
Inputs:
topsoil texture
subsoil texture
depth to bedrock
Parent material
topsoil Van Genuchten parameters
subsoil Van Genuchten parameters
Look-up tables (HYPRES et al):
Infiltration parameters
water storage
Groundwater parameters groundwater
infiltration
h/v transport
h/v transport
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LISFLOOD outputs
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
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10/1/1992 12/31/1992 4/1/1993 7/2/1993 10/1/1993 1/1/1994 4/2/1994 7/2/1994 10/2/1994 1/1/1995
Maas Borgharen (measured) Maas Borgharen (w781)
LISFLOOD-WB: Borgharen (Meuse, NL) 1993-1995
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
The LISFLOOD model: a tool for River Basin Management
• Changing land use in upstream areas:
– reforestation
– deforestation
– set aside
– urban growth• Consequences of climate
change• Modifying river and floodplain
dimensions• Building water retention areas• Building water reservoirs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
time step
Observed
Original
Afforestation
Original land cover map Reforestation scenario
20% reduction in peak flood
EGEO UNIT: NATURAL HAZARDS PROJECT
Simulates the effects of scenarios on floodsand the water balance:
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Oder-LISFLOODreport
July 2002
close cooperationwith MS and IKSO,
includingaccession countries
Evaluation of flood defense plans
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Scenario results Oder: Discharge changes 2001-2030(if flood action plan is carried out)
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
21TOWARDS A EUROPEAN FLOOD ALERT SYSTEM
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
time (day since 1 January 1995)
dis
char
ge
(m3/
s)
p20f Maaseik (measured)
10 day weather forecasts:
rainfall temperature
+ LISFLOODMODEL
Flood forecasts for all major rivers:
Example of a warning report
10-day forecast Meuse:20-30 January 1995with uncertainty rangedischarge forecast
Additional data
Link to ECMWF established
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
TheEuropean
Flood Forecasting
System
10-dayrainfallforecastper hour
22-01-1995 31-01-1995
DMI 0-72ECMWF 73-240
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
The European Flood Forecasting System: zoom
10-day forecast hourly discharge: 22-01-1995 31-01-1995 LISFLOOD model
.
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
- in the morning check midnight run, and check status of morning run
- keep logbook
- Validate results if possible
- Assess scores and improve system
European Flood Alert System :
EFASForecasts
ECMWF
DWD
Qobs
Pobs
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
EFAS server
-Data conversion
-Data storage
…
daily quick check on Rnf, also other rnf sources, WB, Q, news, Q, critical levels, Persistency to previous days, Keep logbook
NO ALERT ALERT
Automatic model simulation (At present: over night. Soon twice a day.)
EFAS team tasks
Automatic 24h waterbalance
On ALERT 10-day forecasts
-get overview from other data sources
-Monitor carefully the second simulation and check persistency
-Discuss flood risk and how to proceed further with team
-Unofficially inform NWA contact
-In case crisis becomes certain contact DSS
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Meuse (Borgharen) 19-01-1995 / 28-01-1995
P
Q
ECMWF
LISFLOOD1km
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Meuse (upstream Borgharen) 20-01-1995 / 29-01-1995
P
Q
LISFLOOD1km
ECMWF
(old EPS system)
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950120)
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950122)
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Oder flood 1997: Miedonia (upper-Odra)
970702 970703
970704 970705
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Example
Flood Pre-Warning for 20-01-95 until 30-01-95
0: all clear1: flood watch2: flood warning3: severe flood warning
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
Outlook:
• Flood modelling:– 1:250;000 data for Elbe + Danube– Validation for Danube and Elbe– Scenarios– European Flood Alert System
• Drought forecasting– Using seasonal weather forecasts– Model modifications where needed
• Irrigation
• Landslide forecasting– Model modifications where needed
LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
For more information:
European CommissionDG Joint Research Centre
IES - Ispra - Italy