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LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply January 22 d 2008

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Page 1: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas SupplyJanuary 22 d 2008

Page 2: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

LNG era opens up attractive opportunities for gas producers

Page 3: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

2

Middle East and Russia present two major natural ga s suppliers to take a global long-term position

С.Америка

7,3

Ю. Америка

7,1

5,8

Европа

Африка

14,6Ближний Восток

72,8

48,0

Россия

АТР

14,2

Europe

Middle East

Russia

Asia-Pacific

AfricaSouth America

North America

World Gas Reserves (Bln m 3)

Page 4: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

3

Market overlaps provide specific location arbitrage opportunity for LNG trading

Source: Pace Global and various public sources

East AsiaEurope

U.S.Atlantic

Pacific

Middle East

Page 5: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

4

North American and European spot gas prices have been largely independent, tied only by prevailing world oil prices

0

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8

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14Ja

n-00

Jul-0

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Jul-0

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Jan-

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Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

2006

$/M

MB

tu

National Balancing PointGerman Border PriceHenry HubZeebrugge

Source: Pace Global

Page 6: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

5

Different markets vary significantly by liquidity a nd seasonal arbitrage opportunities

Market Price

LNG Contract Price

LEGEND

USA‘06 ‘07

$7.4$5.6 UK

‘06 ‘07

$4.1

$8.0

SPAIN‘06 ‘07

$4.6$4.5

BELGIUM‘06 ‘07

$3.9$7.6

KOREA‘06 ‘07

$7.1$7.2JAPAN‘06 ‘07

$6.9$6.7

Source: Pace Global and various public sources

Natural Gas Prices, December 2006/April 2007

Page 7: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

6

Notably, a pattern is emerging, despite the 2005-20 06 hiccups

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n-01

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Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

2006

$/M

MB

tu

NBP GBP Henry Hub

2005: U.S. Hurricane

Season

2005-06: U.K. Transitions to Net Importer

Page 8: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

Gazprom represents Russian natural gas sector in the new global market place

Page 9: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

8

Stable Production Growth

28.714.6 13.6 13.6 8.7

556.0

0

40

80

120

Stable Growth Production Volumesover Last 5 Years (1)

(1) For the years 2003-2006 a new methodology applied that fully conforms with the accounting principals of consolidation utilized by Gazprom(2) Can be potentially extended to 140 bcm p.a. in the long run(3) Companies’ data. ITERA is not included (in 2004 produced 14 bcm)

Over 85% of Russian Gas Production (3)

523.2

512.0

525.6

547.6552.5

556.0555.0

2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

bcm

Total gas production in 2006, bcm

600

Field Launch Year

Year Of Peak Production

Peak Production

Satellite Fields

Kharvutinskoye 1996 2008 25.0 bcm p.a.

Yen-Yahinskoye 2003 2008 5.0 bcm p.a.

Pestsovoye 2004 2006 27.5 bcm p.a.

Ety-Purovskoye 2004 2006 15.0 bcm p.a.

Aneryakhinskoye 2004 2006 10.0 bcm p.a.

Yuzho-Russkoye 2007 2009 25 bcm p.a.

Zapolyarnoye (Valanzhinsk deposit) 2008 2010 15 bcm p.a.

New Giant Fields

Bovanenkovskoye 2011 - 115(2) bcm p.a.

Kharasaveiskoye - - 38 bcm p.a.

Shtokmanovskoye 2013 After 2015 71 bcm p.a.

New Production Capacity

Strong Production Plan

6880

115

65

89

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom

(k$/boepd)

EV / Production – International Majors

Page 10: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

9

Exploration & Production CAPEX / Total Production Ratio (2)

Gazprom + Gazprom neft

SupermajorCombined

Major EmergingMarkets Combined

Unmatched Reserve Base

Unparalleled Amount of Proved Reserves and Longest Reserve Life

� Total Proved Reserves in 2006 (mmboe)

� Reserve life in years based on proved reserves and 2006 production

Source: Company data, J.S. Herold, Companies’ Annual Reports Notes: (1) - ABC1 (2) – Calculations based on 2006 results

Reserves Recovery Ratio for Gazprom based on ABC1 gas reserves increases as a result of exploration activities.Reserves for Russian companies based on SPE International Standards (and certain provisions of SEC Standards for Gazprom and Gazprom Neft)Reserves based on SEC or SORP Standards for non-Russian corporatesRosneft figures exclude gas

Reserve Recovery Ratio above 100%over Last 2 Years (1)

116.7(32 yrs) 84.9

(22 yrs)(13 yrs)

90.1

1.8

13.1

4.0

10.5

13.1

9.1

GazpromTotalShellExxonChevronBP0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0 (USD/BOE)

Exceptional Undervalued Reserves and a Long Reserve Li fe

Gazprom Neft4,6

EV / Reserves – International Majors

($/boe)

100+%

105% 106%

69%79%

96%

32%

16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2011F

15.2

24.8

21.3

16.418.9

2.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom

Page 11: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

10

Recent Developments: Shtokman

(1) Can be potentially extended to 95 bcm p.a.

Strategic Importance Transaction Summary

Increasing Value Through Both Piped Gas and LNG Deliveri es

Reserves and Production A+B+C1+C2

71.0(1)

31.0

3.7Gas, tcm

Gas condensate, mln tonns

Gas production potential, bcm p.a.

� On July 13, 2007, Gazprom signed a framework agreement with Total S.A. on main conditions of cooperation regarding Shtokman field development

� StatoilHydro joined the project with 24% stake

� Parties will establish a project development company with Gazprom’s stake – 51%, Total’s stake - 25%, StatoilHydro – 24%

� Gazprom will retain control over the SPV (51%), 100% ownership of the license and rights for 100% of the production

First Phase Development

2014Beginning of LNG supply

2013Beginning of pipeline deliveries

23.7Production volume on completion, bcm

Page 12: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

11

Overview Objectives

� SEIC(1) will remainthe operator of theSakhalin II project

� To implement theproject in line withthe scheduleincluding obtaining all necessary permits and approvals

� All existing LNG sales contracts will remain in force

� LNG deliveries are expected to start in 2008, nearly 100% has been already contracted

� The first LNG plant and associated export facilities built in Russia

New promising region for Gazprom

Recent Developments: Sakhalin II

(1) Sakhalin Energy Investment Company Ltd

Participants

Gazprom (50%+1)Shell (27.5%)Mitsui (12.5%)Mitsubishi (10%)

DeliveriesAsian markets North America

Acquisition Price

Cash -USD 7.45 bln

ReservesPhase II

Oil – 600 mln tGas – 700 bcm

TargetProduction Capacity

340,000 boe/dIncludingLNG - 9.6 mln t p.a.

Pipeline to mainland Russia

VIV

I

III c

III bIII a

VI

II

800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting the fields with oil and gas shipment terminals and the LNG plant

Production start year 1999

Page 13: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

12

1,085 1,116 9631,326

82.9 87.7 96.6

115

0

500

1000

1500

2003 2004 2005 2006

0

50

100

150

Gas Transportation RevenueIndependent Suppliers Transported Volumes

Over 155,000 of Gas Pipelines

(1) Amounts include gas in transit from Central Asia on behalf of other partiesExchange rate of RR 26.0113 = US$ 1.00, which was the CBR rate on March 31, 2007

(2) For Blue Stream and Yamal-Europe date of projected capacity, for NSP date of first pipeline branch commissioning

Growing Transportation Revenue (1)

Export Routes under Development

Building the Bridge to European Customers

Pipeline Network

2010Gas pipeline from Russia under Baltic Sea to Germany55 bcmNord Stream Pipeline

2010Gas pipeline to enhance gas export through the Yamal-Europe pipeline20.5-28.5 bcmSRTO - Torzhok

2010Further development of gas pipeline from Russia under the Black Sea to Turkey

16 bcmBlue Stream

COMMISSIONDATE(2)

TYPE / DESCRIPTIONCAPACITYPROJECT

(US$ mln) bcm

Page 14: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

13

� Preparation stage� Forthcoming tenders for pipes supplies� Procurement of construction materials began in

2007� Project is being implemented in strict compliance

with ecological policies of Baltic sea countries

Off-Shore On-Shore

� Constructor and owner - Gazprom� Construction stage (commenced in late 2005)� 144 km of the total 917 km pipeline put into trial

operation in 2006� Contracts signed for materials and pipelines supply� No schedule delays

Nord Stream

Notes:(1) Offshore section, two branches, preliminary estimates(2) In October 2006, we signed a MoU with Gasuni pursuant to which Gasuni is expected to enter the NEP project with an interest of 9%. As a result, the interests of BASF and E.ON can be reduced

to 20% each.

Nord Stream Gas Pipeline New Transportation Route

IrelandUK

Norway

SwedenFinland

Russia

KazakhstanUkraine

Belarus

Estonia

LatviaLithuania

Poland

HungaryRomania

Bulgaria

Greece

Italy

Turkey

IraqSyria

Iran

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Germany

France

SpainPortugal

Austria

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Croatia

Algeria Tunisia

IrelandUK

Norway

SwedenFinland

Russia

KazakhstanUkraine

Belarus

Estonia

LatviaLithuania

Poland

HungaryRomania

Bulgaria

Greece

Italy

Turkey

IraqSyria

Iran

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Germany

France

SpainPortugal

Austria

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Croatia

Algeria Tunisia

Connecting part(on-shore part)

Nord Stream(off-shore part)

Length (offshore segment) 1,200km

Capacity (two pipelines) 55 bcm

Operation Start Year 2010 (first pipeline)

Operator Nord Stream AG

No Transit Countries

Capital Investment EUR 6 bln. (1)

Ownership (2)

Gazprom 51.0%

BASF 24.5%

E.ON 24.5%

Project finance for the offshore section

Potential for additional partners to join the proje ct

Diversification of the Transportation Routes

Page 15: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

14Source: EIA Projected International Dry Natural Gas Consumption to 2030Notes: Net import represents total consumption less own production and export

Strong Growth Expected in the Asian Gas Market

South Korea

JapanIndia

25 28 34 36 36 36

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Net Imports (bcm)

Newly emerging markets demonstrate growth, which, i f grasped, will make Gazprom a true global energy play erAsian Markets – Significant Growth Opportunities

China

011 11 17

34

59

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Net Imports (bcm)

017

25

45

6473

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Net Imports (bcm)

84 8795 98 98 104

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Net Imports (bcm)

Page 16: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

15

China’s emerging natural gas industry provides a uni que opportunity of sustained growth in natural gas cons umption

� 86.5 Tcf estimated reserves

� 2.1 Tcf/yr production

� Demand growth 1.8 Tcf����3.4 Tcf by 2012

� Huge pipeline infrastructure build-out underway

� One LNG terminal, two still planned, eight cancelled !

2.3 Bcf/d in

2009

Page 17: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

16

Russia along could gasify the Chinese power system

Page 18: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

Gazprom carefully investigates the global natural gas market place to develop a balanced and sustained strategy ahead

Page 19: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

18

Gazprom is utilizing existing advantages of the shor ter distances than of the competitors

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6000

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Page 20: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

19

With new supplies on the way, the transatlantic reallocation of cargos will only grow

Relative Levels ofSeasonal Demand

Relative Levels of Piped Gas Availability

Relative TransatlanticPrice Levels

LNG Supply Flows

Page 21: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

20

Regas terminals in Europe are not supported by the g rid

Page 22: LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply · LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. Pipeline to mainland Russia V IV I III c III b III a VI II 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting

Thank you for your attention