lng & sustainable natural gas supply · lng - 9.6 mln t p.a. pipeline to mainland russia v iv i...
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LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas SupplyJanuary 22 d 2008
LNG era opens up attractive opportunities for gas producers
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Middle East and Russia present two major natural ga s suppliers to take a global long-term position
С.Америка
7,3
Ю. Америка
7,1
5,8
Европа
Африка
14,6Ближний Восток
72,8
48,0
Россия
АТР
14,2
Europe
Middle East
Russia
Asia-Pacific
AfricaSouth America
North America
World Gas Reserves (Bln m 3)
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Market overlaps provide specific location arbitrage opportunity for LNG trading
Source: Pace Global and various public sources
East AsiaEurope
U.S.Atlantic
Pacific
Middle East
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North American and European spot gas prices have been largely independent, tied only by prevailing world oil prices
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2006
$/M
MB
tu
National Balancing PointGerman Border PriceHenry HubZeebrugge
Source: Pace Global
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Different markets vary significantly by liquidity a nd seasonal arbitrage opportunities
Market Price
LNG Contract Price
LEGEND
USA‘06 ‘07
$7.4$5.6 UK
‘06 ‘07
$4.1
$8.0
SPAIN‘06 ‘07
$4.6$4.5
BELGIUM‘06 ‘07
$3.9$7.6
KOREA‘06 ‘07
$7.1$7.2JAPAN‘06 ‘07
$6.9$6.7
Source: Pace Global and various public sources
Natural Gas Prices, December 2006/April 2007
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Notably, a pattern is emerging, despite the 2005-20 06 hiccups
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2006
$/M
MB
tu
NBP GBP Henry Hub
2005: U.S. Hurricane
Season
2005-06: U.K. Transitions to Net Importer
Gazprom represents Russian natural gas sector in the new global market place
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Stable Production Growth
28.714.6 13.6 13.6 8.7
556.0
0
40
80
120
Stable Growth Production Volumesover Last 5 Years (1)
(1) For the years 2003-2006 a new methodology applied that fully conforms with the accounting principals of consolidation utilized by Gazprom(2) Can be potentially extended to 140 bcm p.a. in the long run(3) Companies’ data. ITERA is not included (in 2004 produced 14 bcm)
Over 85% of Russian Gas Production (3)
523.2
512.0
525.6
547.6552.5
556.0555.0
2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A
bcm
Total gas production in 2006, bcm
600
Field Launch Year
Year Of Peak Production
Peak Production
Satellite Fields
Kharvutinskoye 1996 2008 25.0 bcm p.a.
Yen-Yahinskoye 2003 2008 5.0 bcm p.a.
Pestsovoye 2004 2006 27.5 bcm p.a.
Ety-Purovskoye 2004 2006 15.0 bcm p.a.
Aneryakhinskoye 2004 2006 10.0 bcm p.a.
Yuzho-Russkoye 2007 2009 25 bcm p.a.
Zapolyarnoye (Valanzhinsk deposit) 2008 2010 15 bcm p.a.
New Giant Fields
Bovanenkovskoye 2011 - 115(2) bcm p.a.
Kharasaveiskoye - - 38 bcm p.a.
Shtokmanovskoye 2013 After 2015 71 bcm p.a.
New Production Capacity
Strong Production Plan
6880
115
65
89
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom
(k$/boepd)
EV / Production – International Majors
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Exploration & Production CAPEX / Total Production Ratio (2)
Gazprom + Gazprom neft
SupermajorCombined
Major EmergingMarkets Combined
Unmatched Reserve Base
Unparalleled Amount of Proved Reserves and Longest Reserve Life
� Total Proved Reserves in 2006 (mmboe)
� Reserve life in years based on proved reserves and 2006 production
Source: Company data, J.S. Herold, Companies’ Annual Reports Notes: (1) - ABC1 (2) – Calculations based on 2006 results
Reserves Recovery Ratio for Gazprom based on ABC1 gas reserves increases as a result of exploration activities.Reserves for Russian companies based on SPE International Standards (and certain provisions of SEC Standards for Gazprom and Gazprom Neft)Reserves based on SEC or SORP Standards for non-Russian corporatesRosneft figures exclude gas
Reserve Recovery Ratio above 100%over Last 2 Years (1)
116.7(32 yrs) 84.9
(22 yrs)(13 yrs)
90.1
1.8
13.1
4.0
10.5
13.1
9.1
GazpromTotalShellExxonChevronBP0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0 (USD/BOE)
Exceptional Undervalued Reserves and a Long Reserve Li fe
Gazprom Neft4,6
EV / Reserves – International Majors
($/boe)
100+%
105% 106%
69%79%
96%
32%
16%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2011F
15.2
24.8
21.3
16.418.9
2.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom
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Recent Developments: Shtokman
(1) Can be potentially extended to 95 bcm p.a.
Strategic Importance Transaction Summary
Increasing Value Through Both Piped Gas and LNG Deliveri es
Reserves and Production A+B+C1+C2
71.0(1)
31.0
3.7Gas, tcm
Gas condensate, mln tonns
Gas production potential, bcm p.a.
� On July 13, 2007, Gazprom signed a framework agreement with Total S.A. on main conditions of cooperation regarding Shtokman field development
� StatoilHydro joined the project with 24% stake
� Parties will establish a project development company with Gazprom’s stake – 51%, Total’s stake - 25%, StatoilHydro – 24%
� Gazprom will retain control over the SPV (51%), 100% ownership of the license and rights for 100% of the production
First Phase Development
2014Beginning of LNG supply
2013Beginning of pipeline deliveries
23.7Production volume on completion, bcm
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Overview Objectives
� SEIC(1) will remainthe operator of theSakhalin II project
� To implement theproject in line withthe scheduleincluding obtaining all necessary permits and approvals
� All existing LNG sales contracts will remain in force
� LNG deliveries are expected to start in 2008, nearly 100% has been already contracted
� The first LNG plant and associated export facilities built in Russia
New promising region for Gazprom
Recent Developments: Sakhalin II
(1) Sakhalin Energy Investment Company Ltd
Participants
Gazprom (50%+1)Shell (27.5%)Mitsui (12.5%)Mitsubishi (10%)
DeliveriesAsian markets North America
Acquisition Price
Cash -USD 7.45 bln
ReservesPhase II
Oil – 600 mln tGas – 700 bcm
TargetProduction Capacity
340,000 boe/dIncludingLNG - 9.6 mln t p.a.
Pipeline to mainland Russia
VIV
I
III c
III bIII a
VI
II
800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting the fields with oil and gas shipment terminals and the LNG plant
Production start year 1999
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1,085 1,116 9631,326
82.9 87.7 96.6
115
0
500
1000
1500
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
50
100
150
Gas Transportation RevenueIndependent Suppliers Transported Volumes
Over 155,000 of Gas Pipelines
(1) Amounts include gas in transit from Central Asia on behalf of other partiesExchange rate of RR 26.0113 = US$ 1.00, which was the CBR rate on March 31, 2007
(2) For Blue Stream and Yamal-Europe date of projected capacity, for NSP date of first pipeline branch commissioning
Growing Transportation Revenue (1)
Export Routes under Development
Building the Bridge to European Customers
Pipeline Network
2010Gas pipeline from Russia under Baltic Sea to Germany55 bcmNord Stream Pipeline
2010Gas pipeline to enhance gas export through the Yamal-Europe pipeline20.5-28.5 bcmSRTO - Torzhok
2010Further development of gas pipeline from Russia under the Black Sea to Turkey
16 bcmBlue Stream
COMMISSIONDATE(2)
TYPE / DESCRIPTIONCAPACITYPROJECT
(US$ mln) bcm
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� Preparation stage� Forthcoming tenders for pipes supplies� Procurement of construction materials began in
2007� Project is being implemented in strict compliance
with ecological policies of Baltic sea countries
Off-Shore On-Shore
� Constructor and owner - Gazprom� Construction stage (commenced in late 2005)� 144 km of the total 917 km pipeline put into trial
operation in 2006� Contracts signed for materials and pipelines supply� No schedule delays
Nord Stream
Notes:(1) Offshore section, two branches, preliminary estimates(2) In October 2006, we signed a MoU with Gasuni pursuant to which Gasuni is expected to enter the NEP project with an interest of 9%. As a result, the interests of BASF and E.ON can be reduced
to 20% each.
Nord Stream Gas Pipeline New Transportation Route
IrelandUK
Norway
SwedenFinland
Russia
KazakhstanUkraine
Belarus
Estonia
LatviaLithuania
Poland
HungaryRomania
Bulgaria
Greece
Italy
Turkey
IraqSyria
Iran
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Germany
France
SpainPortugal
Austria
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Croatia
Algeria Tunisia
IrelandUK
Norway
SwedenFinland
Russia
KazakhstanUkraine
Belarus
Estonia
LatviaLithuania
Poland
HungaryRomania
Bulgaria
Greece
Italy
Turkey
IraqSyria
Iran
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Germany
France
SpainPortugal
Austria
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Croatia
Algeria Tunisia
Connecting part(on-shore part)
Nord Stream(off-shore part)
Length (offshore segment) 1,200km
Capacity (two pipelines) 55 bcm
Operation Start Year 2010 (first pipeline)
Operator Nord Stream AG
No Transit Countries
Capital Investment EUR 6 bln. (1)
Ownership (2)
Gazprom 51.0%
BASF 24.5%
E.ON 24.5%
Project finance for the offshore section
Potential for additional partners to join the proje ct
Diversification of the Transportation Routes
14Source: EIA Projected International Dry Natural Gas Consumption to 2030Notes: Net import represents total consumption less own production and export
Strong Growth Expected in the Asian Gas Market
South Korea
JapanIndia
25 28 34 36 36 36
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Net Imports (bcm)
Newly emerging markets demonstrate growth, which, i f grasped, will make Gazprom a true global energy play erAsian Markets – Significant Growth Opportunities
China
011 11 17
34
59
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Net Imports (bcm)
017
25
45
6473
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Net Imports (bcm)
84 8795 98 98 104
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Net Imports (bcm)
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China’s emerging natural gas industry provides a uni que opportunity of sustained growth in natural gas cons umption
� 86.5 Tcf estimated reserves
� 2.1 Tcf/yr production
� Demand growth 1.8 Tcf����3.4 Tcf by 2012
� Huge pipeline infrastructure build-out underway
� One LNG terminal, two still planned, eight cancelled !
2.3 Bcf/d in
2009
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Russia along could gasify the Chinese power system
Gazprom carefully investigates the global natural gas market place to develop a balanced and sustained strategy ahead
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Gazprom is utilizing existing advantages of the shor ter distances than of the competitors
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s
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With new supplies on the way, the transatlantic reallocation of cargos will only grow
Relative Levels ofSeasonal Demand
Relative Levels of Piped Gas Availability
Relative TransatlanticPrice Levels
LNG Supply Flows
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Regas terminals in Europe are not supported by the g rid
Thank you for your attention