LOAD FORECAST SECTION

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FORECAST METHODOLOGIES & TOOLS

i. Power Market Survey (PMS)

• Medium Term (5-10 years)

ii. Regression

• Long Term (25-30 years)

LOAD FORECASTING

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DISCO-WISE PEAK DEMAND PMS OUTPUT (MW)

Name 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

LESCO 4473 4710 4973 5242 5526 5834 6183 6544 6907GEPCO 2068 2180 2282 2389 2501 2618 2741 2869 3007FESCO 2825 3009 3206 3410 3621 3892 4170 4543 4853IESCO 2307 2422 2556 2701 2849 3004 3161 3322 3526MEPCO 3349 3588 3808 4037 4300 4582 4878 5186 5555PESCO 2596 2703 2818 2935 3054 3175 3298 3422 3514HESCO 1187 1271 1361 1457 1560 1669 1787 1912 2036QESCO 1619 1706 1797 1893 1994 2101 2214 2333 2461TESCO 570 587 605 623 642 662 682 703 723SEPCO 994 1058 1127 1199 1276 1358 1446 1538 1647DISCOs Demand (undiversified) 21989 23233 24532 25887 27324 28896 30558 32373 34228DISCOs Demand (Diversified) 19436 20537 21685 22882 24152 25542 27012 28615 30255T & T Losses (500 & 220kV) 622 657 694 733 773 818 865 916 969% T & T Losses (500 & 220kV) 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05NTDC Demand 20059 21194 22379 23615 24926 26360 27876 29531 31224Auxiliary Consumption 343 362 382 404 426 450 476 505 534% Auxiliary Consumption 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68

System Demand (w/o Export to KESC) 20401 21556 22761 24018 25352 26810 28353 30036 31757

Export to KESC 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650

System Demand With Export to KESC 21051 22206 23411 24668 26002 27460 29003 30686 32407

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-100

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

CapabilityForecast

Years

Capa

bilit

y (M

W)

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FUTURE DEMAND & SUPPLY PROJECTION BY PLANNING POWER NTDC IN YEAR 2000

GENERATION PLANNING SECTION

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GENERATION PLANNING SOFTWARES

• Worldwide used softwares WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning)

SYPCO (System Production Costing Program)

• Other softwares Power Balance System

• Long Term Generation Expansion Plan

• Demand & Supply Projections

Reports Being Published by Generation Planning Section

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TRANSMISSION PLANNING SECTION

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Transmission Planning Section is Responsible for

• We follow NTDCL Grid Code approved by NEPRA.”

• Preparing/updating transmission expansion plan.

• Proposing new substations and transmission lines.

• Proposing site & Interconnection schemes for power dispersal of all types of new power plants, both in public and private sectors.

• Review of feasibility studies/reports submitted by consultants.

• Providing technical support/consultancy services to the upcoming IPPs, DISCO(s) and KESC.

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• Load flow studies

• Short circuit studies

• Transient stability studies

• Power quality studies

System Studies Being Carried Out

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Following software tools are being used by leading consultants and electric utilities worldwide;

• Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) • Power System Computer Aided Design (PSCAD)

Transmission Planning Section has version 32 of PSS/E and is currently negotiating with Siemens to;

• Update PSS/E by acquiring its latest version 33 through Maintenance & Support (M&S) support.

• Purchase a multiuser wireless license of PSS/E. • Purchase additional modules of PSS/E for advanced analysis

• Optimal Power Flow (OPF)• Eigenvalue and Model Analysis (NEVA) • Graphical Model Builder (GMB)

Softwares Being Used by Transmission Planning Section

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PROJECT PLANNING SECTION

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• Preparation of PC-I(s) for NTDC Development Projects

• Preparation of PC-II(s) for feasibility studies of mega

Projects

• Preparation of Future Development Plan

• Preparation of Investment Plan

• Financing arrangements through International Financing

Agencies

• Preparation of PC-I(s) and PC-II(s) for Public Sector

Thermal Power Projects

Responsibilities of Projects Planning Section

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