load pattern and the deployment of renewables in taiwan within the times framework

Load pattern and the deployment of renewables in Taiwan

within the TIMES frameworkPei-Ling Wen, Ching-Wei Kuo, Tzu-Yar Liu, Ming-Lung Hung

Abu Dhabi, June 1, 2015ETSAP workshop

Copyright 2015 ITRI 工業技術研究院

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Scenario Assumptions

4. Scenario Results

5. Conclusions

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Introduction (1)

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Source: BOE (2014). Energy Statistics Handbook 2013, Taipei, Taiwan: Bureau of Energy, MOEA.

Energy requirements in Taiwan Highly import-dependent

Highly dependent on fossil fuels

Increasing energy demand


Introduction (2)Taiwan’s Sustainable Energy Policy aims to harmonize

environmental protection, economic growth and security of energy supply.

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Source: BOE (2012), Framework of Taiwan's Sustainable Energy Policy. Taiwan: Bureau of Energy, MOEA.


Introduction (3)Motivation

To improve the reliability of Taiwan TIMES Model• To simulate the pattern of electricity consumption behavior and ,• To investigate renewable energy power curve.

Within the fine time-resolution modeling, we simulated• The effect of RE intermittency on the deployment of RE.• The effect of energy conservation policy on the deployment of RE

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Intermittence of wind power in TaiwanMonthly Hourly

Source: Taipower (2014)


Methodology (1)

Taiwan TIMES Model (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)

2 sectors:– Residential sector

– Service sector

Technology databases:– Consumer behavior: pattern of electricity consumption for cooling (with time-slice

setting)

– Power intermittency: pattern of renewable power generation (with time-slice setting)

– Equipment efficiency: conservation measures for air conditioning

Coverage:– Period of 2010-2030

Data Sources:– Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan

– TaiPower (Taiwan’s state-own power enterprise)

– Taiwan Green Productivity Foundation (TGPF)

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Methodology (2)Features of Taiwan TIMES Model

The Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) established the Taiwan MARKAL model since 1993 with funding support from the Bureau of Energy.

In order to enhance analysis capabilities, TIMES model was introduced by ITRI in 2007and the Taiwan TIMES model localized database has completed by 2010.

Currently the Taiwan TIMES model database is categorized by 3 major technologies: conversion technology (63 items), processing technology (75 items), and demand technology (256 items)

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Scenario Assumptions

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Source：1 TaiSEND (2014), 2Council for Economic Planning and Development (2013), 3IEA (2013), 4EIA (2013).

Social-economic assumptions

Parameters of cooling technology• According to Energy Label (EL), Energy Efficiency Rating (ER), Minimum Energy

Performance Standards (MEPS), and Cooling Seasonal Performance Factor (CSPF) for air conditioning, proposed by Taiwanese government.

Driver Assumption

GDP1 Annual average GDP growth of 2.80% (2010-2030).

Industrial Structure1Share of primary sector of GDP is about 1.01%, secondary increases little and tertiary sector decreases to a share of 59.71% in 2030.

Population2 Annual growth rate is 0.04%.

Household2 Mean size of household decreases; annual growth rate of household is 1.23% from 2010 to 2030.

Energy Carrier Prices3,4

Based on Word Energy Outlook 2013 (IEA) and American Energy Outlook 2013 (EIA).


Scenario Description (1)

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Scenario Description

Without time slices

CASE1 Without energy efficiency policies of air conditioning for residential and service sectors

Introducing the renewable energy technological database

CASE2 With energy efficiency policies of air conditioning for residential and service sectors


With time slices (totally 24 time divisions)

CASE3 Without energy efficiency policies of air conditioning for residential and service sectors


CASE4 With energy efficiency policies of air conditioning for residential and service sectors


NOT considering energy

conservation measures

Considering energy

conservation measures

NOT considering the

renewable intermittencyCASE 1 CASE 2

Considering the

renewable intermittencyCASE 3 CASE 4


Scenario Description(2)

Time-slice setting in the Taiwan TIMES Model

• The time-slice databases of electricity consumption and

renewable power generation has been established.

SM refers to June to September.

WD refers to Weekdays.

WE refers to Weekend.

D01 refers to 7:01 to 11:00.D02 refers to 11:01 to 13:00.D03 refers to 13:01 to 15:00.D04 refers to 15:01 to 18:00.D05 refers to 18:01 to 22:00.D06 refers to 22:01 to 7:00.


Scenario Description(3)

Focus on cooling energy service demand (ESD)

– Example: Scheme for cooling ESD for residential sector

Vacancy rate

Growth rate of population

Housing stock Floor area

Cooling capacity

Operating hours

Energy service demand for

residential sector


Scenario Results (1)

With the support of time-slice function, the utility should

accelerate the commercialization process of PV facilities,

considering (Cases 1 vs 3; Cases 2 vs 4)

• No fuel cost and,

• Benefit of peak load.

Energy conservation policy indeed can let the utility slows

down its PV investment. (Cases 1 vs 2; Cases 3 vs 4)


Scenario Results (2)

With the support of time-slice function, the utility might

choose to postpone the investments of offshore wind

power systems. (Cases 1 vs 3; Cases 2 vs 4)

• The offshore projects suffer from high capital and O&M costs and

• Wind power generation can not match peak demand.

Energy conservation policy indeed can let the utility slows

down its investments of offshore wind farms. (Cases 1 vs 2;

Cases 3 vs 4)


Conclusions

The contributions of this research are the pattern databases

of electricity consumption and renewable power generation

in Taiwan.

With this precious databases in the Taiwan TIMES Model,

the implications of our simulations show that

• Considering renewable intermittency would be helpful for a sound

national energy system planning.

• Energy conservation policy would delay the investments of

renewable energy.

Future research

To find or establish the off-shore power pattern.

• There are no offshore farms in Taiwan till now. This study simulated

the power pattern of offshore wind power according to the historical

record of onshore power.

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Pei-Ling Wen

Green Energy & Environment Research Laboratories

Industrial Technology Research Institute

E-mail: [email protected].

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load pattern and the deployment of renewables in taiwan within the times framework

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