local adaptive behavior on the impacts … · 2013-11-21 · local adaptive behavior on the impacts...

2013 APEC Typhoon Symposium. Typhoon Behavior and its Impact in a Warming Globe. 21-23 October 2013, Taipei, Taiwan.

LOCAL ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR ON THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: THE CASE OF FLOOD‐RELATED LANDSLIDES IN THE PHILIPPINES

LilibethA. Acosta, Damasa B. Magcale‐Macandog, Maria Victoria O. Espaldon, Elaine Kuan‐Hui Lin, Elena A. Eugenio, Paula Beatrice M. Macandog, Edwin Rosell Abucay, Joan Pauline P. Talubo and Ma. Charisma T. Malenab

Outline of Presentation

I. IntroductionII. ObjectivesIII.MethodologyIV.ResultsV.Conclusion

Heavy typhoons hit the Philippines at an average of twenty times per year (PAGASA‐DOST).

These have been known to be the most common cause of landslides in the country.

Introduction

YEAR RAINFALL EVENT LANDSLIDE

2012 Pablo New Bataan, CompostelaValley

2010 Ondoy Parts of Metro Manila and Central Luzon

2009 Pepeng Northern Philippines

2006 Caloy Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte

2006 Durian Albay

2006 Milenyo Mt. Makiling in Laguna

2004 Winnie, Unding,Violeta, Yoyong

Infanta, Quezon

2000 Edeng Payatas

1999 Ising Cherry Hills

1991 Uring Ormoc, Leyte

Philippines: Rainfall‐induced Landslides

Introduction In 2009, the Philippines was listed as the world’s most disaster‐prone country by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED, 2010).

The Philippines experienced 25 natural disasters in 2009, according to CRED’s annual statistical review.

Number of Disasters Type

14 Meteorological (e.g. typhoons)

9 Hydrological (e.g. floods and landslides)

2 Geophysical (e.g. earthquakes and volcanic eruptions)

(Source: CRED, 2010)

The report further identified that almost all the disasters were either meteorological and hydrological.

The Study Area

Infanta, Quezon one of the oldest towns in Quezon 144 km northeast of ManilaType II Climate: No Dry Season but a very pronounced period of maximum rainfall from November to February It is a floodplain at the foot of the Sierra Madre with a total land area of 342.76 sq. km. and with a population of 58,580 scattered among its 36 barangays. 7 urban and 29 rural barangays comprise the municipality.

Quickbird Satellite Image of Infanta

Brgy. Poblacion

Agos River

Images courtesy of PAFID Inc.

Aerial Photos of Infanta

Portion of AgosWatershed

Coastal area of Infanta

Photos courtesy of PAFID Inc.

Between Nov. 14 and Dec. 29 of 2004, four successive typhoons (Winnie, Unding, Violeta and Yoyong) hit the Eastern coast of Luzon.

Heavy rainfall caused massive landslides and devastating flash floods.

Rainfall recorded during the successive typhoon events from Nov. 13, 2004 to Dec. 03, 2004

mmInfantaCasiguran

Daily rainfall from 01 October 2004 to 29 February 2008, Infanta, Quezon. (Data Source: PAGASA weather station in Infanta, Quezon)

24‐hr total rainfall threshold level

30 Nov. 2004 Landslide and mudslide event (TD Winnie)

Super typhoon MilenyoSept. 27, 2006)

Super typhoon Reming(Nov. 26-Dec 01, 2006)

Typhoon Seniang(10 Dec. 2006)

Collection of rainfall thresholds from various landslides in the Philippines. Source: Daag et al. (2006) as cited by Ollet (2008)

These brought about damages to the lives and properties of communities in the towns of Real, General Nakar and Infanta in Quezon and Dingalanin Aurora.

As reported by the Office of the Civil Defense, more than 2.3 million people were affected and about P4.6 billion were lost in terms of infrastructure and agricultural damages (Cruz, 2005).

To compare the different adaptive behaviors of local people during flood‐related disasters and identify the most important

factors influencing these behaviors

OBJECTIVE

MethodologyDataGathering

Primary Data‐Household survey, Focus Group Discussions

Secondary Data‐Maps, Barangay Profiles, Satellite image,

Aerial photographs, Rainfall data

Data Processing

Factor AnalysisCluster analysis using SPSS

Reconnaissance, HH Survey and FGD- HH demographic- Livelihood activities- Perception on disasters- Disaster preparedness and adaptation strategies- etc.- HH survey: Magsaysay (33), Ilog (39), and

Pinaglapatan (35) – simple random sampling on site (Cochran, 1977)

Methodology

Determinants and dimensions of adaptive capacity

Screen plots of different dimensions of adaptive capacity

Dendrogram of the survey respondents based on the most important variables

Distribution of respondents in the four clusters

Description of typologies on adaptive behavior

Adaptive capacity dimension

Progressive(Cluster 1)

Conservative(Cluster 2)

Pragmatic(Cluster 3)

Dependent(Cluster 4)

AwarenessKnowledge on disaster programs

Diverse assistance Limited to farm assistance

Limited to relief goods/medicine assistance

Limited knowledge on any assistance

Networks as information sources

Multiple types and motivations

Farming groups for practical reasons

Cooperative for practical reasons


AbilityDisaster preparedness Limited personal

capacityHigh personal capacity Very high personal

capacityHigh personal capacity

Household sources of livelihood

Diversified livelihood

Agricultural livelihood Non-agricultural livelihood

Non-agricultural livelihood

ActionImplemented action after the landslide

Modern farm improvement practices

Limited farm improvement practices

Farm practices are not relevant


Planned action for future landslides

Own family’s home security

Shelter both from own family & relatives

Depend mainly on relatives for shelter




Aversive(Cluster 1)




Awareness

Knowledge on disaster programs

Diverse assistance

Limited to farm assistance

Limited to relief goods/medicine assistance

Limited knowledge on any assistance

Networks as information sources

Multiple types and motivations


Cooperative for practical reasons


Description of typologies on adaptive behaviorAdaptive capacity dimension

Aversive(Cluster 1)




Ability

Disaster preparedness

Limited personal capacity

High personal capacity

Very high personal capacity

High personal capacity

Household sources of livelihood

Diversified livelihood

Agricultural livelihood

Non‐agricultural livelihood

Non‐agricultural livelihood



Aversive(Cluster 1)




Action

Implemented action after the landslide

Modern farm improvement practices

Limited farm improvement practices



Planned action for future landslides

Own family’s home security


Depend mainly on relatives for shelter


Behavioral typology by village

Behavioral typology by age

Level of Education by typologies

Experience on landslides and opinions on disaster assistance programs

Knowledge on systematic ways of informing the public regarding the sudden occurrence of calamities

Sources of information on consequences of disaster before and after the 2004 landslide, by typology

How respondents frequently feel when typhoon occurs after the 2004 landslides

Proportion of respondents who are not ready to face the consequences of disasters

Changes in the level of income from rice farming before and after the 2004 landslide

Actions done by the respondents on the actual incident of the flood or landslide

Types of assistance sought by the respondents after the 2004 landslide

Actions planned by respondents in case of typhoon

Conclusions

　 Adaptive behavior for the future depends on the previous disaster experience.

　 People who have experienced more adverse impacts from previous disaster think that they will be able to face consequences of future disasters (i.e. pragmatic behavior).

Conclusions

　 People who have experienced less adverse impacts from previous disaster tend to diversify their sources of information and livelihood as strategy to better adapt to future disasters (i.e. aversive behavior).

　 People who experience disaster regardless of the level of impacts do not consider seeking assistance from and providing assistance to others as relevant plan of actions for future disasters.

Thank You!

KMO and Bartlett's Test

DeterminantsKaiser-Meyer-Olkin

Measure of Sampling Adequacy

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity

Approx.Chi-Square df Sig.

Knowledge and experience 0,579 24,599 10 0.006

Sources of information 0,562 180,333 10 0.000

Personal capacity 0,758 507,090 45 0.000

Household resources 0,257 81,256 28 0.000

Action performed 0,664 350,883 55 0.000

Action planned 0,609 573,649 190 0.000

local adaptive behavior on the impacts … · 2013-11-21 · local adaptive behavior on the impacts...

Documents