local industrial strategy: update · greater lincolnshire heart of the south west leeds city region...
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Local Industrial Strategy: updateNeil Hayes – Executive Director
Hertfordshire LEP
What does good look like?
Based on evidence
Co-designed with key stakeholders and Government
Sets clear priorities
Focuses on what makes a local area distinctive
Considers the five Foundations of Productivity and
the four Grand Challenges
1
2
3
4
5
Building on our vision
By 2030, Hertfordshire will be among the UK’s leading economies, helping to
realise the full potential of the assets and opportunities of the Golden Triangle.
Maintaining global
excellence in science
& technology
Priority 1 Priority 2
Harnessing our
relationship with
London & elsewhere
Priority 3
Re-invigorating our
places for the 21st
century
Priority 4
Foundations for
growth
Headlines from our Economic Outlook
• Strong business birth rate, and
fast growth in the business
population since 2010
• Jobs growth in recent years
have been notably faster than
average
• Skilled jobs have grown more
slowly than the national
average
• Productivity has fallen in
relative terms
The boundaries are already very permeable
This reflects (and causes) commuting patterns
Source: Produced by SQW 2018. Licence 100030994
Contains OS data © Crown copyright [and database right] [2018]
And the footprint linked to major sectors
Source: Produced by SQW 2018. Licence 100030994 Contains OS data © Crown copyright [and database right] [2018]
Jobs growth
• County-wide jobs growth
has been strong
• Watford has seen
substantial growth over
recent years
• Three districts/boroughs
have grown more slowly
than the national average
and one has seen jobs loss
Source: Jobs density dataset, ONS
Earnings
• Overall, residents earn more
than people working full time
in Hertfordshire, reflecting the
consequences of commuting
• Full time employees working in
Watford earn less than the
national average
• Locally, resident earnings are
high but this is not consistently
the case
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Index of multiple deprivation (IMD)
Source: Produced by SQW 2018. Licence 100030994 contains Ministry of Housing, Communities &
Local Government data: English indices of deprivation 2015
Employment in Hertfordshire
Hertfordshire’s GVA per job
The elephant in the corner
Analysis by LSE found that
Watford and East Herts are
among the 10 areas most
‘at-risk’ from Brexit due to
local sector specialisms:
• Financial services and
aerospace have particularly
strong EU supply chain
• The financial services sector
nationwide relies heavily on
migrant labour
Our Local Industrial Strategy principles
Building on our strengths & opportunities
Addressing challenges - deep dives
Dialogue & debate
Making the case for investment
1
2
3
4
East-West growth axis
• Will accommodate 50% of Hertfordshire
housing growth
• Garden Towns
• 2 Enterprise Zones, 10,000+ jobs
• Transport constraints – digital solutions?
• Sector potential – enviro-tech, off-site
construction, life sciences, ICT
• Should be of national significance
• How can this address the Grand
Challenges?
Source: Hertfordshire Infrastructure and Funding Prospectus
Identified housing sites in Hertfordshire to 2031
Stevenage Innovation District
• Home to an emerging cell and gene therapy
cluster of international significance
• 1000 jobs, £1bn investment over past 5 years
• A focus for advanced engineering and
manufacturing
• Live issue – accommodating growth
• Potential testbed for convergence
• How can this benefit neighbouring localities
and settlements?
London fringe – deep dive
Opportunities:
• Watford regeneration
• Growth of film and TV and related tech sector
• Digital growth – home working
Challenges:
• Broxbourne’s economic performance
• Loss of employment land – housing pressures
• Lack of investment
• Iterative growth
• Need to assess in line with outer London (M25)
• What is our offer for investors?
Source: AECOM
770,000+ sq. m. commercial floor space has
been lost over the last decade, equivalent to:
• 10% of total Hertfordshire office stock
• More than the entire stock of St Albans,
Stevenage and Watford combined
Loss to residential represents 50% of office
losses and 25% industrial losses:
• Rate of loss has doubled over the last 5 years.
• 130,000 sq. m. office floor space lost due to
Permitted Development Rights
• This is a live issue, but needs a long term
solution
Loss of employment land
Source: Hertfordshire Infrastructure and Funding Prospectus
Identified employment sites in Hertfordshire to 2031
From start-up to scale-up – deep dive
• We do not seem able to scale up
our SMEs as well as we should
• We need to understand barriers
better e.g.
• Premises
• Skills
• Finance
• Technology
• Mixed picture depending on sectors
• Key role for University of
Hertfordshire
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Incidence rate of small high growth firms (adding at least 8 employees in 3 years)
Skills attainment
There are significant variations in skills and
school level attainment across the county.
• The proportion of residents qualified to
degree level ranges from 25% in
Broxbourne to 56% in St Albans
• Jobs are changing profoundly thanks to
digitisation e.g. retail – logistics
• How can technology reduce our reliance on
commuting?
• Do we need to prepare for Jobless growth
Dialogue & debate
• Driven by business and academic innovation
• Need for Local Industrial Strategy to dovetail with
emerging growth and infrastructure picture
• Engage with neighbouring Local Industrial Strategy
development where relevant e.g. sector development
• ‘Co-design’ with government – essential that HMG
have clear understanding of issues & opportunities
• Are we being ambitious enough?
Making the case
• Communications and Advocacy campaign is
crucial
• Fronted by business – with endorsement from
MPs and local partners
• Competitive landscape
• Funding uncertain – clear Business Case
needed
Key milestones
How you can get involved