Locating livestock systems, starting with dairy

Discussion ELPEN Management meeting 3

ELPEN

Geographically

specific

The ELPEN system needs:

• Appraise policy impacts at flexible scale (national, regional, local, grid):

• Policy makers need to know what and where

• Appraise impacts on the environment (livestock practices in relation to the physical conditions)

• Appraise impacts on the social environment

Why spatially explicit?EU Nuts 2 areas

Geographically

specific

Output map: PhosphateExpected concentration of P in surface water in 2015 under current legislation

0.0 - 0.15 mg/l0.15 - 0.300.30 - 0.600.60 - 1.001.00 - 2.00

No data

ELPEN

Problems encountered when locating farms and farm types

• Availability of consistent up-to-date EU data is limited

• Aggregated data only on level of administrative entities

• Little individual farm (survey) data available• Individual farm data only linked to administrative

entity (usually not to location) • If individual farm data available only allowed to

present on aggregated level

ELPEN

Percentage dairy farms of total farms

Where are the dairy farms?ELPEN

Total proportion of utilised agricultural area used by dairy farms

Where are the dairy farms?ELPEN

Localization of farm types in the ELPEN system

Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size

Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size

Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size

Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)livestock typesfarm size

Nationalprobability maps:per gridcell:probability (%) oflivestock types,farm types + size

Eurostat data

maps with portions offarm / livestock types per gridcell, such that per regionthe amount and size oflivestock / farms coincide with the Eurostat data

Allocation model

Impact assessments

Computations,Knowledge

rules

ELPEN

Localization of livestock systems in each country

National statistical data per region

Additionalnational data and maps

CORINE map

ELPEN

Probability map:per gridcel:probability (%)of livestock types,farm type and size

overlay

Knowledge rules

Knowledge rules

Allocation procedure in the ELPEN system

ELPEN

1) The FSS data -> nr of farms, ha and animals /type /FSS-region

2) Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions (on the basis of national statistical data)

3) Further allocation among suitable CORINE land cover grids (on the basis of expert rules)

4) Further refinement on the basis of other data e.g. climate, altitude, slope, distance to big cities, etc. (on the basis of expert rules)

What information do we need from national experts? (1)For theProportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

1a) In what regional level do you have your national data on livestock systems by farm type?BE:

DK: on county level (NUTS3) in FSS-typology (1999)

FR: on department level (NUTS3) in FSS-typologies (1997, ->1999)

GE:

GR:

NL: on farm level (standard NEG-typology, at Alterra/LEI also in FSS-typology)

UK: NUTS3

Other?:

What level is useful for localization in ELPEN?

ELPEN

What information do we need from national experts? (2)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

1b) The nr of all farms/region + % that has dairy (> 5 cows)

1c) nr. + distribution/region of all farms over farm types (FSS)

1d) nr. + distribution /region of animals (in lu) over animal types

1e) the average size / region of the specialised dairy farms

and/or?

1f) nr.ha + distribution /region of land use types over farm types (useful for knowledge rules, not directly for allocation)

1g) ??

ELPEN

What information do we need from national experts? (2)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

2 What is the data availability, how accurate? Available: Accuracy: Spatial:

BE:

DK: at the National Statistical Office 100% / 2 years NUTS3

NL: at ALTERRA, LEI 100% / year per farm

FR: at the Ministry of Agriculture 10% / 2 years , 100% / 10years NUTS3

GE:

GR:

UK:

other??

ELPEN

3) Why do the distributions of dairy differ between regions? Exercise -> national and regional differences in land use/farm type

4a) Determine the suitability of CORINE classes for dairy Exercise -> FSS statistical data on NUTS2 level combined with 7 CORINE classes

4b) Formulate rules to derive different distributions between regions Exercise -> National data -> NUTS2 level combined with LGN grass + maize

What information do we need from national experts? (3)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

5) What additonal rules can be used for localising livestock, applied on what other physical / spatial data?BE:DK: land use / bloc + digitized maps of 90% of the perm. Grassland + 25x25m not arableFR: Terreuti Land cover: 12x12km grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland)GE: GR: NL: LGN Land cover: 25x25m grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland)UK: Land cover 30x30m (only England?)??:

6) How durable are the regional distributions ?7) How durable are your expert rules?

What information do we need from national experts? (4)For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

8) Indicate the dominant dairy breeds per region, durability?Data available:

European: FAO + European veterinary associationBE:DK:FR: at Institut de l’Elevage, yearly data collection of > 60% of the dairy farms GE:GR:NL:UK:??:

ELPEN

Additional information

9) Overview of the main national statistical sources

10) Relevant national physical / spatial data

11) Additional data of whole EU

ELPEN

More general information

Make proposal, including:FR: We make a first proposal for a French student who will do the allocation work next yearDK: Erling makes description/county/CORINE class of the distribution of relevant land cover types

Short description of work

List of deliverables

Estimation of time needed

Estimation of costs for non-ELPEN members (450 EURO a day)

Deadline: ??? FR: Data on NUTS3 level of 1997 as quickly as possible, the student next spring for ca. 6 months.DK: end of October

Practical issues:

ELPEN