lockdownthe lockdown lockdown week
TRANSCRIPT
Aishwarya Sonker
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66303351
Harshita Kain
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66301851
Suhas Harinarayanan
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66303037
Arshad Perwez
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66303080
Daily case growth inches up in India
28 Jun 2020
Second wave in the US; sharp trajectory uptick in- i)
India and ii) the seemingly-peaking Brazil WoW
India’s COVID-19 tally 4th largest in the world
Source WHO as on 27Jun’20 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25,
we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier);
Daily case growth highest amongst top hit nations and
has risen to 3.7% vs. 3.6% last week
Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 20Jun’20
2
India vs. Rest of World
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Day
1
Day
8
Day
15
Day
22
Day
29
Day
36
Day
43
Day
50
Day
57
Day
64
Day
71
Day
78
Day
85
Day
92
Day
99
Day
10
6
Day
11
3
Day
12
0
Day
12
7
Day
13
4
Day
141
Day
14
8
Day
15
5
Italy Spain Iran
India Russia UK
US - RHS Brazil - RHS
Until
Lockdown
3 days after
the lockdown
2 weeks after
the lockdown
Since
lockdown
Past one
week
China* 44% 34% 29% 3% 0.0%
Italy 24% 19% 16% 3% 0.1%
France 16% 19% 15% 3% 0.2%
Spain 22% 30% 21% 4% 0.1%
Iran 47% 14% 8% 3% 1.2%
India 25% 9% 17% 8% 3.7%Russ ia 12% 13% 2% 5% 1.2%
UK 17% 19% 12% 4% 0.4%Brazi l 3.3%
US 1.5%
As on 27th Jun; * Hubei lockdown
Daily recoveries-to-positives ratio for India
around 68% in the last week
India’s recovery rate improving, death rate moderating
Source Bloomberg,, As on 27Jun’20, JM Financial, Recovery cases not available for UK
…India’s deaths-to-positives ratio moderates to 3.08%
Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 27Jun’20
3
India vs. Rest of World
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Day
1
Day
9
Day
17
Day
25
Day
33
Day
41
Day
49
Day
57
Day
65
Day
73
Day
81
Day
89
Day
97
Day
10
5
Day
11
3
Day
12
1
Iran USA India
Italy - RHS Spain - RHS Russia
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Day
1
Day
9
Day
17
Day
25
Day
33
Day
41
Day
49
Day
57
Day
65
Day
73
Day
81
Day
89
Day
97
Day
105
Day
113
Day
121
Day
129
China Italy Spain Iran US
India Russia Brazil UK
Even as positives per test and deaths per test for India
remain below most nations….
Daily growth in cases still higher than testing per million
Source Official Heath ministry, Bloomberg, JM Financial
The daily growth in testing per million (at 2.7%) remains
lower than daily case growth (at 3.7%)
Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial, CDGR= Compounded Daily Growth Rate
4
India vs. Rest of World
Positives per
testsDeaths per tests As on
France 10% 1.9% 02-Jun
Iran 16% 0.8% 05-Jun
Spain 6% 0.6% 04-Jun
US 8% 0.4% 26-Jun
Ita ly 5% 0.7% 24-Jun
India 6% 0.2% 28-Jun
Russ ia 3% 0.0% 26-Jun
Brazi l 11% 0.5% 26-Jun
UK 3% 0.5% 27-Jun
75370
7221,126
1,578
2,176
2,763
3,450
4,183
5,033
6,083
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
05
-Apr
23
-Apr
03
-May
09
-May
16
-May
24
-May
31
-May
07
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
Testing per million Testing CDGR-RHS
Delhi ramps up testing; exceeds Mumbai to rank #1 in total cases
5
Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Using hotspot list as on 30Apr’20; Covid19India.org- As on 28-Jun-20, CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
India: District-wise
Total districts in
India: 733
Green zone- No cases reported
Number of districts: 319
Orange zones: Neither green/ red
No of districts: 284
Red zones: Hotspots
No. of districts: 130
Top 20 hotspots districts constitute 65% of total cases
District StateState Test
per mn% Total Cases
1 week
CDGR
Delhi Delhi 24,141 15% 5%
Mumbai Maharashtra 7,371 14% 2%
Chennai Tamil Nadu 14,234 10% 4%
Thane Maharashtra 7,371 6% 6%
Ahmedabad Gujarat 5,257 4% 1%
Pune Maharashtra 7,371 4% 4%
Hyderabad Telangana 2,129 2% 11%
Kolkata West Bengal 4,730 1% 3%
Gurugram Haryana 8,620 1% 2%
Chengalpattu Tamil Nadu 14,234 1% 4%
Palghar Maharashtra 7,371 1% 7%
Aurangabad Maharashtra 7,371 1% 5%
Indore Madhya Pradesh 4,099 1% 1%
Surat Gujarat 5,257 1% 5%
Nashik Maharashtra 7,371 1% 6%
Raigad Maharashtra 7,371 1% 6%
Thiruvallur Tamil Nadu 14,234 1% 5%
Faridabad Haryana 8,620 1% 7%
Jaipur Rajasthan 10,157 1% 2%
Jalgaon Maharashtra 7,371 1% 5%
Still no signs of peaking out in the top 3 worse-hit states
6
India: State wise
Maharashtra still leads in terms of number of new daily cases
Source: CEIC- As on 27-Jun-20, JM Financial
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
21
-Mar-
20
28
-Mar-
20
04
-Apr-
20
11
-Apr-
20
18
-Apr-
20
25
-Apr-
20
02
-May-
20
09
-May-
20
16
-May-
20
23
-May-
20
30
-May-
20
06
-Ju
n-2
0
13
-Ju
n-2
0
20
-Ju
n-2
0
27
-Ju
n-2
0
Delhi Gujarat Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh
…and pollution levels also inched up
As far as economic activity is considered…
7
…congestion levels higher vs. last week
Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Pollution index on 500 at 7pm for Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata and
Chennai in these regions- Sion, Mundkar, Alandur Bus depot, Heebal and Fort Wiliiam respectively
India: Indicators
3% 5%9%
17%15%17%24%
20%22%18%16%
23%
67%67%67%
55%55%55%
67%67%67% 69%69%69%
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
This year Last year
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Pune
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
05
-Jan-2
0
12
-Jan-2
0
19
-Jan-2
0
26
-Jan-2
0
02
-Feb-2
0
09
-Feb-2
0
16
-Feb-2
0
23
-Feb-2
0
01
-Mar-
20
08
-Mar-
20
15
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
29
-Mar-
20
05
-Apr-
20
12
-Apr-
20
19
-Apr-
20
26
-Apr-
20
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
28
-Ju
n-2
0
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Kolkata Chennai- RHS
Lockdown1
Lockdown2
Lockdown3
Lockdown4
Fall in retail food prices slow; De-growth in mandi-arrivals
8
Higher tomato inflation; overall fall in retail inflation
slow
Source CMIE, JM Financial
YoY fall in mandi arrivals flat this week
Source: Argmarket, JM Financial
Indicators: Rural
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
80
05
-Jan
12
-Jan
19
-Jan
26
-Jan
02
-Feb
09
-Feb
16
-Feb
23
-Feb
01
-Mar
08
-Mar
15
-Mar
22
-Mar
29
-Mar
05
-Apr
12
-Apr
19
-Apr
26
-Apr
03
-May
10
-May
17
-May
24
-May
31
-May
07
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
Rice Atta (Wheat) Pulses
Potato Tomato Onion - RHS% YoY
Lockdown 2
Lockdown 1
Lockdown 3
Lockdown 4
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-w
k1
Jan-w
k2
Jan-w
k3
Jan-w
k4
Feb-w
k1
Feb-w
k2
Feb-w
k3
Feb-w
k4
Mar-
wk1
Mar-
wk2
Mar-
wk3
Mar-
wk4
Ap
r-w
k1
Ap
r-w
k2
Ap
r-w
k3
Ap
r-w
k4
May-
wk1
May-
wk2
May-
wk3
May-
wk4
Jun-w
k1
Jun-w
k2
Jun-w
k3
Jun-w
k4
Mandi volume: CY20-YoY (%)
Mandi volume: CY20-YoY (%) - ex of NCT
Monsoon on track; Kharif sowing trend encouraging
9
Monsoon 2020: Encouraging, well-distributed
rainfall so far
Source IMD, JM Financial
Kharif sowing - (c.25% completed), YoY doubled so far
with sharp jump in Western and Central India
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, JM Financial
Indicators: Rural
-26%
-37%-30%
-41%-35%
11%
40%
4%
18% 22%
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
North WestIndia
Central India SouthPeninsula
East &northeast
India
All India
2019 2020
0 2 4 6 8
Assam
West Bengal
Odisha
Tamil Nadu
Uttarakhand
Bihar
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Haryana
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Telangana
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
(mn hectaress)
2020 2019
MNREGA days, wheat procurement higher YoY
10
India: Rural
MGNREGA: May person days up 54% YoY; June (prelim
data) at last year levels, likely to maintain May'20 run-rate
Wheat procurement - Continues to be strong, up by
13%YoY vs. 12%YoY last week
Source: Nrega.nic.in, JM Financial, *Initial estimate Source: FCI, JM Financial
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ap
ril
May
June July
Au
gust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
embe
r
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
FY21 FY20 FY19 FY18
Person days (mn)
Sharp-uptick in May'20 person days (interim)
5.5
19.6
29.3 32.4
33.2 33.5 33.9 34.1
34.1
4.5
11.7
25.3 31.3
35.4 36.5 37.7 38.2
38.6
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
22
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
04-M
ay
10-M
ay
16-M
ay
22-M
ay
28-M
ay
03-J
un
09-J
un
15-J
un
21-J
un
(mn tonne) 2019 2020
Lower YoY contraction in power consumption; toll collections better
11
Lower YoY contraction in power consumption
this week
Source: POSCO, JM Financial
National Electronic Toll Collections show improvement
in May…
Source: NPCI, JM Financial; monthly data
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Dec-
17
Jan
-18
Feb-1
8M
ar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-1
8Ju
l-1
8A
ug-1
8Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov-
18
Dec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9M
ar-
19
Apr-
19
May-
19
Jun-1
9Ju
l-1
9A
ug-1
9Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov-
19
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0M
ar-
20
Apr-
20
May-
20
National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (% YoY)
Indicators: Industrial
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
05
-Jan-2
0
12
-Jan-2
0
19
-Jan-2
0
26
-Jan-2
0
02
-Feb-2
0
09
-Feb-2
0
16
-Feb-2
0
23
-Feb-2
0
01
-Mar-
20
08
-Mar-
20
15
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
29
-Mar-
20
05
-Apr-
20
12
-Apr-
20
19
-Apr-
20
26
-Apr-
20
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
Power consumption% YoY
Lockdown 2
Lockdown1
Lockdown 3
Lockdown 4
E-way bills, Capacity utilization levels catching up
12
E-way Bills generated rising WoW
Source: GST Network, JM Financial
Capacity utilization levels for Oil & Gas, steel sector at
par with pre-COVID-19 levels, cement catching up
Source: JM Financial; As on 21Jun’20, Based on analyst interactions with companies
Indicators: Industrial
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9
Mar-
19
Ap
r-1
9
May-
19
Jun-1
9
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Mar-
20
Ap
r-2
0
25'M
ay
- 3
1'M
ay
31'M
ay
- 7
'Ju
n
7'J
un -
14
'Ju
n
15'J
un
- 2
2'J
un
E-way Bills (mn)
Railways freight traffic improves; Truck rental growth falls WoW
13
Average daily railway freight traffic
improves in May’20
Decline in YoY growth of freight rentals
this week for three routes
Source: Indian Railways, JM Financial Source: CMIE, JM Financial; Routes from Delhi to respective cities
Indicators: Industrial
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
01-M
ar-
20
06-M
ar-
20
11-M
ar-
20
16-M
ar-
20
21-M
ar-
20
26-M
ar-
20
31-M
ar-
20
05-A
pr-
20
10-A
pr-
20
15-A
pr-
20
20-A
pr-
20
25-A
pr-
20
30-A
pr-
20
05-M
ay-
20
10-M
ay-
20
15-M
ay-
20
20-M
ay-
20
25-M
ay-
20
30-M
ay-
20
04-J
un
-20
09-J
un
-20
14-J
un
-20
19-J
un
-20
24-J
un
-20
Jaipur Patna Ahmedabad
Mumbai Chennai Kolkata
% YoY
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9
Mar-
19
Apr-
19
May-
19
Jun-1
9
Jul-1
9
Aug-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Mar-
20
Apr-
20
May-
20
Railways Daily Freight Traffic (mn tonnes)
Mobility trends for workplaces worse; 25% of the INR 3trn MSME
Credit guarantee scheme sanctioned
14
Mobility for workplaces* down by 31% from baseline
Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. Figures are averages.
* Mobility trends for places of work
Indicators: Industrial
25% of INR 3trn MSME credit guarantee scheme
sanctioned; 11% disbursed
Source Ministry of Finance; As on 20June, JM Financial
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 10-16 Jun-20 17-23 Jun-20
All India 2% -23% -62% -30% -31%
Hotspots
Maharashtra -1% -29% -72% -46% -46%
Tamil Nadu 5% -19% -65% -28% -35%
Delhi 0% -31% -80% -46% -46%
Green Zone
Goa 0% -24% -54% -26% -28%
Meghalaya 10% -12% -36% -10% -11%
Sikkim 10% -5% -30% -2% -3%
Workplaces % change from baseline
Daily average property registrations rise; Dwello website visits improves
15
Maharashtra daily average property sales registrations
sees WoW increase Dwello website visits show improvement
Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial Source: Dwello, JM Financial
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
05
-Jan
-20
12
-Jan
-20
19
-Jan
-20
26
-Jan
-20
02
-Fe
b-2
0
09
-Fe
b-2
0
16
-Fe
b-2
0
23
-Fe
b-2
0
01
-Mar
-20
08
-Mar
-20
15
-Mar
-20
22
-Mar
-20
29
-Mar
-20
05
-Ap
r-2
0
12
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-Ap
r-2
0
26
-Ap
r-2
0
03
-May
-20
10
-May
-20
17
-May
-20
24
-May
-20
31
-May
-20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
Dwello Unique Website Visits
Indicators: Real Estate
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9
Mar-
19
Ap
r-1
9
May-
19
Jun-1
9
Jul-19
Au
g-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Mar-
20
Ap
r-2
0
May-
20
1-7
Ju
n'2
0
8-1
4 J
un
'20
15-2
1 J
un'2
0
22-2
8 J
un
'20
Average daily registration of property sales in Maharashtra
Unofficial unemployment data sees a decline…
16
YoY growth in Index of consumers sentiments still
largely negative
Source CMIE, JM Financial
…but unemployment rate lower at 8.5%
by 21Jun’20
Source: CMIE, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
-
10
20
05
-Jan
-20
12
-Jan
-20
19
-Jan
-20
26
-Jan
-20
02
-Feb
-20
09
-Feb
-20
16
-Feb
-20
23
-Feb
-20
01
-Mar-
20
08
-Mar-
20
15
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
29
-Mar-
20
05
-Ap
r-2
0
12
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-Ap
r-2
0
26
-Ap
r-2
0
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
Index of Consumer Sentiments
Index of Current Economic Conditions
% YoY
Lockdown 2
Lockdown 1
Lockdown3
Lockdown 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
05
-Jan
-20
12
-Jan
-20
19
-Jan
-20
26
-Jan
-20
02
-Feb
-20
09
-Feb
-20
16
-Feb
-20
23
-Feb
-20
01
-Mar-
20
08
-Mar-
20
15
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
29
-Mar-
20
05
-Ap
r-2
0
12
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-Ap
r-2
0
26
-Ap
r-2
0
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
Unemployment rate%
Lockdown2
Lockdown 1
Lockdown 3
Lockdown 4
Retail trend down, mobility trends for discretionary consumption flat
17
No sequential pick-up in sales; deferred marriage
season, early rainfall slows recovery in retail spending
Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 58% from
baseline; flat WoW
Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. Figures are averages
* Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
movie theaters.
Indicators: Consumption
Source: JM survey across retailers of V-mart, V2-retail, other value retail stores in UP & Bihar
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 10-16 Jun-20 17-23 Jun-20
All India -1% -29% -82% -58% -58%
Hotspots
Maharashtra -3% -34% -85% -69% -68%
Tamil Nadu 0% -25% -84% -54% -62%
Delhi -3% -37% -88% -64% -64%
Green Zone
Goa 1% -33% -79% -66% -64%
Meghalaya 8% -17% -70% -61% -60%
Sikkim 5% -10% -69% -52% -51%
Retail and Recreation % change from baseline
100
60
50 5248
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pre-Covid June 1stweek
June-2ndweek
June-3rdweek
June-4thweek
Value Retail Sales indexed to last year normal sales (indexed to100)- (North and East India)
All-India vehicle registrations improving
18
Number of all-India vehicle registrations fall marginally
although revenue collections rise WoW
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
YoY contraction in daily vehicle registrations lower
in June
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial; YoY growth calculated over daily averages
Indicators: Consumption
1 15
1 3
37
3
51 46
3
95
58
4
142
84
5
183
109
6
258
119
7
255
120
8
Vehicle
registrations (in000s)
No. of
transactions (in10, 000s)
Revenue
collections (INRbn)
10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6Ja
n-1
7M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-1
7Se
p-1
7N
ov-
17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8Ja
n-1
9M
ar-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
l-1
9Se
p-1
9N
ov-
19
Jan
-20
Mar
-20
May
-20
28
-Ju
n-2
0
PV 2-Wheelers MHCV LCV
Vehicle Registrations (YoY%)
Airbnb/Vrbo bookings declining marginally, Delhivery orders steady
19
55K active properties and 2K new bookings were seen
by Airbnb/Vrbo in the week ending 21-Jun-20
Source: AirDNA, JM Financial
Delhivery: Packages delivered steady
Source: delhivery.com, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
09
-Feb-2
0
16
-Feb-2
0
23
-Feb-2
0
01
-Mar-
20
08
-Mar-
20
15
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
29
-Mar-
20
05
-Apr-
20
12
-Apr-
20
19
-Apr-
20
26
-Apr-
20
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
Airbnb/Vrbo Active Properties Airbnb/Vrbo New Bookings - RHS
(1000s) (1000s)
1 13 2 2
15
65
6 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
26
-Apr-
20
03
-May-
20
10
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
14
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
28
-Ju
n-2
0
Delhivery: Weekly increase in delivering package number(mn)
WoW lower AePS cash withdrawals; constant volume in digital payments
20
Aadhaar Enabled Payment System (AePS) cash
withdrawals lower than last week
Source RBI, JM Financial
NEFT, UPI and IMPS transaction volumes at par with last
week
Source: RBI, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
01
-Ju
n-2
0
03
-Ju
n-2
0
05
-Ju
n-2
0
07
-Ju
n-2
0
09
-Ju
n-2
0
11
-Ju
n-2
0
13
-Ju
n-2
0
15
-Ju
n-2
0
17
-Ju
n-2
0
19
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
23
-Ju
n-2
0
25
-Ju
n-2
0
Vol (mn) Val (INR bn) - RHS
AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) mnINR bn
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
01
-Ju
n-2
0
03
-Ju
n-2
0
05
-Ju
n-2
0
07
-Ju
n-2
0
09
-Ju
n-2
0
11
-Ju
n-2
0
13
-Ju
n-2
0
15
-Ju
n-2
0
17
-Ju
n-2
0
19
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
23
-Ju
n-2
0
25
-Ju
n-2
0
NEFT UPI IMPS
Volume Index
Airline travel rises; retail turnover continues to inch up
21
Retail (FII+DII) turnover has continued to inch up
Source RBI, JM Financial
Daily airline departures, passengers rising
Source: RBI, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
25 M
ay’
20
27 M
ay’
20
29 M
ay’
20
31 M
ay’
20
02 J
un’2
0
04 J
un’2
0
06 J
un’2
0
08 J
un’2
0
10 J
un’2
0
12 J
un’2
0
14 J
un’2
0
16 J
un’2
0
20 J
un’2
0
22 J
un’2
0
25 J
un’2
0
27 J
un’2
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
No. of Passengers No. of departures
Falling C-D Ratio, Corporate spreads
22
Falling credit-deposit ratio of scheduled commercial
banks (at 73.5%) as on 5Jun’20
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
Indicators: Monetary
Corporate spreads remained almost flat this week…
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
100
150
200
250
300
350
01
-Feb
08
-Feb
15
-Feb
22
-Feb
29
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-Mar
21
-Mar
28
-Mar
04
-Apr
11
-Apr
18
-Apr
25
-Apr
02
-May
09
-May
16
-May
23
-May
30
-May
06
-Ju
n
13
-Ju
n
20
-Ju
n
27
-Ju
n
Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA
Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA
bps
Other indicators…
23
India: Indicators
Oil prices fall marginally …the INR marginally below 76
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
Cumulative FII flows steady
Yield curve steeper
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
05
-Jan
12
-Jan
19
-Jan
26
-Jan
02
-Feb
09
-Feb
16
-Feb
23
-Feb
01
-Mar
08
-Mar
15
-Mar
22
-Mar
29
-Mar
05
-Apr
12
-Apr
19
-Apr
26
-Apr
03
-May
10
-May
17
-May
24
-May
31
-May
07
-Ju
n
14
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
Oil- USD /bbl
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
05
-Jan
12
-Jan
19
-Jan
26
-Jan
02
-Feb
09
-Feb
16
-Feb
23
-Feb
01
-Mar
08
-Mar
15
-Mar
22
-Mar
29
-Mar
05
-Apr
12
-Apr
19
-Apr
26
-Apr
03
-May
10
-May
16
-May
24
-May
31
-May
07
-Ju
n
21
-Ju
n
28
-Ju
n
INR
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
-
09
-Jan
23
-Jan
06
-Feb
20
-Feb
05
-Mar
19
-Mar
02
-Apr
16
-Apr
30
-Apr
14
-May
28
-May
11
-Ju
n
25
-Ju
n
Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20USD bn
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
20 year10 year5 year3 year1 year
May-12 Jan-13 May-20 Jun-20 %
Unlock 1.0: Phase 1 began from 8Jun’20
24
Unlock 1.0 Highlights
Phase 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed Religious places and places of worship for public
Allowed Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services
Allowed Shopping malls
Phase 2 - To be decided in Jul'20
Decision post consultation
Schools, colleges, educational/training/coaching institutions
Phase 3 - Date to be decided
Allowed International air travel of passengers
Allowed Operation of metro rail
Allowed Cinema halls, Gymnasiums, Swimming pools, Entertainment parks, Theatres, Bars and auditoriums, Assembly halls and similar places
Allowed Social, political, sports, entertainment, academic, cultural, religious functions, and other large congregations
Night curfew
9 pm to 5 am All India except essential activities
Containment zones
Lockdown Till 30Jun'20
Allowed Essential services
Buffer Zones May be identified around containment zones
Movement of persons and goods
Allowed Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary Source News18, JM Financial
Refer to our other earlier tracker reports
25
• COVID-19 Tracker_21Jun2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_14Jun2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_7Jun2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_31May2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_25May2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_18May2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_14May2020
• COVID-19 Tracker_8May2020
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27