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Climate Change and TransportThe potential role of electric passenger vehicles

Markus Becker Division IG I 5 “Environment, Traffic and Transport”

TU Berlin

27 October 2010

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Warm-up: energy for transport

When using the energy contained in 5 litres of gasoline (42 kWh or 37,000 kcal) …

… how far can you travel on different means of transport ?

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ContentI. Challenges in (automotive) transport

II. Advantages of electric drives, coupling RE

III. National Development Plan for EV, related projects

IV. Conclusions

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Required GHG reduction complying with a 2°C target

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How to reduce emissionsfrom passenger transport?

total emissionstransport demand

[passenger km]

energy intensity

[joule per pkm]

CO2intensity

[CO2e per joule]

Simplified illustration for overall emissions, acc. to Creutzig/Edenhofer

= x x

approachesAvoid traffic

e.g. reducing needs for mobility and distancesthroughintegrated planning

Shift traffic + efficiencye.g. reducing consumptionof vehicles andsupportmodal shifttowards moreefficient modes

Switch fuel

e.g. using low carbon fuelssuch as sustainable biofuels orrenewableelectricity

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Where lies the bulkof emissions?

75%

15%

9% 1%

Individual (road) Public (road & rail) Aviation others

EU-27 modal split (pkm 2007, DG Energy and Transport)

…efficiency

Electric enginesare by farmore efficientthan combustionengines.

…fuel switch

Electric drivesallow for a switchfrom hydrocarbonfuels to renewableelectricity.

+

normalcar

hybrid plug-in &range-extended

fullyelectric

combustion

electric

Electric vehicles both support…

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GHG path to meet 2°Cmaximum global warming

Calculations: McKinsey for BMU, 2010

CO2 emissions in Gt CO2e

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What could a 2°C target mean for car traffic?

2050:7 - 22t

CO2e p.a.

9 Billioncitizensin 2050

0,7 - 2,4tCO2e budgetp. capita/year

Share oftransportconstant

Similarmodalsplit

emissionstandards

of 14 to 43g/KM

>> requires a 68 to 93% share of electric driving in mileage, even if conventional cars are optimised

101) S60: Scenario oil price 60 USD per barrel, S110: oil price 110 USD per barrel.2) Source: McKinsey

What could the market look like in 2020?

Global Sales

Global sales of EV and PHEV up to 7mn in 2020, thereof 3 million in Europe and 0,6 million in Germany

ICEV (combustion v.)Optimized ICEVMild HybridPlug-In and battery electric vehicle

Global market volume of 470 billion euro p.a. possible by 2020.scenario S 110,thereof € 110 bn EV and PHEV

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A race for modelshas begun

Mass production vehicles as of August 2010non-comprehensive

Source: RWE

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ContentI. Challenges in (automotive) transport

II. Advantages of electric drives, coupling RE

III. National Development Plan for EV, related projects

IV. Conclusions

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Advantages of electric mobility

Climate ChangeReduction of CO2 emissions, worldwide by around two thirds until 2050, by at least 80% in Germany

Scarcity of

fossil fuels

Supply will presumably last 30 to 40 years –reserves mainly in politically unstable regions

UrbanisationChanging requirements for users and increasing necessity to limit local emissions

Technological

requirements

EV technologies available today, some manufacturers have already started small-scale production

Industrial

policy

Government support programmes, in particular China: 11 billion euro within the upcoming decade; likewise: US, EU, Japan

Customer demandSignificant number of early adopters already today (despite high costs)

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CO2[g/km]

Diesel fuel from coal (CtL)

Upstream process

Car operation

e-vehicles with RE20103)

50

100

150

200

e-vehicles with electricity mix Germany 20103)

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5

290

Efficient diesel engine2010 2)

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1) Source: KBA, conventional fuels 2 ) consumption: 4 l/100 km, conventional fuels 3) electricity consumption: 18 kWh/100 km

106 106

Largest CO2 reduction for electricity from renewable energies

Passenger cars, new vehicles' Germany 20071)

201

CO2 emissionsof different energy paths

170

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Renewable electric mobility!

Consumption

Pump storage

Run down power plant

- + e-vehicle

„The additional total demand in electric energy for electric vehicles will be met by electricity from renewable sources – according to the determinations of the National Electromobility Development Plan.“Joint Declaration FedGov - Industry of 3 May 2010

preferably: use of intermittent renewables thereafter: provision of further extensions

The use of renewable electricity for vehicles is crucial to the climate protection effect the user acceptance the marketing of the car industry

1 million electric vehicles increase the electricity demand by appr. 0.3 percent

mileage 10.000 km/a, 0.18 kWh/km consumption, gross electricity consumption 617 TWh (2007)

Scheme: Electric vehicles can absorb peak loads of green electricity

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ContentI. Challenges in (automotive) transport

II. Advantages of electric drives, coupling RE

III. National Development Plan for EV, related projects

IV. Conclusions

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Electric mobility as part of the Integrated Energy and Climate Programme(December 2007)

Establishment of the interministerial steering group on electric mobility(BMWi, BMVBS, BMU, BMBF)

Support of first field trials in Berlin (June 2008)

National strategy conference on electric mobility (November 2008)

Economic stimulus programme II € 500 m until 2011 (January 2009)

National Electromobility Development Plan (NEDP) (August 2009)

Establishment of Federal Government Joint Unit for Electric Mobility (February 2010)

National platform on electric mobility (May 2010)

Development in Germany

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Integrating e-mobility in a sustainable transport system

Climate protection through expansion and grid integration of RE

Maintaining and enhancing competitiveness by introducing innovations throughout the entire value-added chain (lead market electric mobility)

Interlinking central actors (national platform)

Interim goal: 1 million electric vehicles by 2020[6 million in 2030 according to FedGov’s Energiekonzept]

Fundamental aims of NEDP

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BMWi Energy research (e.g. electricity storage and grid integration) ICT for grid integration (e-energy) Transport research (e.g. drive components, field trials)

BMVBS 8 model regions Centre for battery testing

BMU Field trials in passenger and commercial transport Recycling of lithium-ion traction batteries Market introduction of hybrid busses Grid integration and coupling with RE (e-energy)

BMBF Development of production technologies for lithium-ion cells/ battery systems Competence network systems research electric mobility Development of research centres for electrochemistry

Key areas of support of ministries

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Main focus of projects commissioned by BMU

€ 100 million funding until 2011

• determining the environmental and emission impacts of electric and plug-in-hybrid vehicles

• gaining knowledge about user acceptance and real-time charging behaviour

• proving controlled charging in order to support grid integration of renewable electricity

• developing and testing storage and back-feed options for electricity

Image: theautochannel.com

Objective: Commercialise the „zero-emission vehicle“ as a sustainable innovation

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E-Energy model regions

• integration of electric vehicles into a smart energy system

• time sensitive charging• examination of back-feed

capability (vehicle to grid)• developing and proving the

IT-infrastructure• devicing business cases for

utilities and usersInvolved regions

• Mannheim: company fleet of SAP, further partners• Harz: individual users and rent-a-car, further partners• 7 model regions in total, commissioned jointly with BMWi

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Mini-E Fleet Trial

• 50 electric BMW Mini in Berlin• partner: BMW, Vattenfall i.a.• 100 user testing the Mini-E for

6 months• individual and commercial

participants• objective: analysing acceptance

and proving controlled charging

Intermediate results• high customer satisfaction, high reliability of the vehicles• rare use of public charging spots provided• mobility patterns hardly distinguishable from conventional cars

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Volkswagen TwinDrive

• development of a plug-in-EV, platform: Golf

• fleet trial with 20 vehicles in the Berlin conurbation

• objectives:• determining energy consumption,

emissions and user acceptance• proving controlled charging and

back-feed of current into the grid

Specifications• e-drive: 85 kW, 40 - 50 km electric range, Vmax: 120 km/h• combustion engine: 90 kW, Vmax:170 km/h

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Mercedes E-Vito

• fleet trial with 50 elektric light duty vehicles in Berlin

• users: parcel and customer services

• ideal segment for deployment:• short distance, high mileage• uniform pattern of operation• major environmental benefit in urban

areas• low energy costs

Specifications• 130km range, 80 km/h Vmax• 900kg net load, no storage constraints• regenerative breaking, zero local emissions

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Further projects

• development of recycling procedures for Li-Ion-batteries, installation of a pilot facility

• subsidy scheme for hybrid buses

• proving inductive charging for electric vehicles

• employment of range extended vehicles

• fleet trial with heavy-duty passenger e-cars (Porsche)

• examination of environmental and economic benefits

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Regional distribution ofBMU projects

See www.pt-elektromobilitaet.de for more information.

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ContentI. Challenges in (automotive) transport

II. Advantages of electric drives, coupling RE

III. National Development Plan for EV, related projects

IV. Conclusions

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Electric mobility is the future – independently of developments in Germany

Long-term climate protection goals make electrification indispensable

e-vehicles only sustainable with electricity from RE

Symbiosis between RE and electric vehicles possible

1st phase of NEDP important step

Most important findings

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Further steps

Swift distribution of funds from economic stimulus programme II

1st report of National Platform for Electric Mobility Dec 2010 International strategy conference presumably first half of

2011 Steadily pursuing development of electric mobility

industry (in particular manufacturers and energy utilities) researchpolitics

specification of next phase of NEDP incentives for coupling e-vehicles to RE

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Thank you for your kind attention.

ContactMarkus BeckerBMU IG I 5 D-11055 BerlinMail: markus.becker@bmu.bund.de

In 1899, more electric vehicles than com-bustion engine vehicles were produced.

Recommended reading

www.bmu.de/english/mobility/electric_mobility/doc/44821.php

www.ikt-em.de/en

www.pt-elektromobilitaet.de [German only]