EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Logistics Real Estate – Market and Regions 2011Germany, Austria, Switzerland

Alexander NehmUwe Veres-HommAnnemarie Kübler

A study with the support of:

Deka Immobilien GmbH,Deutsche Lagerhaus GmbH u. Co KG, Goldbeck In-ternational GmbH, Jones Lang LaSalle GmbH, Kraftverkehr Nagel GmbH & Co. KG, Prologis Germany Management GmbH

Logistics Real Estate – Market and Regions 2011 Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz

Authors:Alexander NehmUwe Veres-Homm Annemarie Kübler

Contact: Buying source:Fraunhofer Center Publisher: Fraunhofer Verlag, Stuttgart for Supply Chain Services SCS Date of publication: October 15, 2011Nordostpark 93 ISBN: ISBN 978-3-8396-0334-590411 Nürnberg Price: 235 Euros plus value added tax Language: GermanPhone: +49 (0)911/58 061-9500 Hardcover edition: 220 color pages, Fax: +49 (0)911/58 061-9599 thereof 94 pages with detailed location profiles Plus: »Fraunhofer logistics map of Germany, www.scs.fraunhofer.de Austria, Switzerland«, pull-out posterAlexander Nehm: +49 (0)911/58 061-9566alexander.nehm@scs.fraunhofer.de

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Content1. Logistics real estate in Germany – A market faces turbulent times1.1. Central goals of the study: more transparency through market survey and the identification and evaluation of logistics locations1.2. Target groups of the study 1.3. Structure of the study1.4. The DACH-region as a new geographical investigation area of the study1.5. The Fraunhofer logistics real estate database as a statistical basis of the study

2. Logisticsmeetstherealestatemarket–thefieldsofobservationofthestudy2.1. The term »logistics« – what does it really mean?2.2. »Logistics real estate isn´t necessarily logistics real estate« – a differentiated approach2.2.1. Transhipment premises – buildings without inventory warehousing2.2.2. Storage premises – the classic »warehouse«2.2.3. Distribution premises – combining several logistical functions2.2.4. Other logistics real estate2.2.5. Land utilization within logistics premises

3. Sustainability – progresses and trends3.1. Requirements of logistics real estate from an investor´s point of view3.2. Sustainable logistics real estate as a new standard in quality and marketing3.3. Difficulties in settlement and image problems 3.4. »Back to the future« market dynamics – The logistics real estate market

4. Thelogisticsrealestatemarketinfigures 4.1. The German logistics market4.2. The logistics real estate market in Germany4.2.1. Key figures4.2.2. User structure4.3. Austria as a logistics country 4.4. The logistics real estate market in Austria4.5. Switzerland as a logistics country 4.6. The logistics real estate market in Switzerland

5. Logistics regions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland5.1. Two indices for objectification: Methods for identifying logistics regions5.1.1. The attractiveness index illustrates the framework conditions for logistics real estate regions5.1.2. The intensity index reflects the actual logistical concentration of a region5.2. An overview of the logistics regions – logistical attractiveness and intensity maps5.2.1. Germany5.2.2. Austria5.2.3. Switzerland5.3. An overview of the top logistics regions5.3.1. Logistics map of Germany, Austria and Switzerland5.3.2. The location matrix – an approach to compare the top logistics regions5.4. The sector intensity visualizes local logistics focuses of individual sectors

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5.5. »Five types of logistics regions« as a specific research approach5.5.1. Import5.5.2. Central distribution5.5.3. Regional distribution5.5.4. Production5.5.5. Network5.6. The dynamic index identifies the latest developments in the regional real estate markets5.7. Logistics regions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland – summary and prospects

6. »Thefinalexamination«:logisticsrealestateafterthecrisis–summaryandprospects

7. Appendix7.1. Appendix I – Location profiles of the top logistics regions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland7.2. Appendix II – Table criteria7.3. Appendix III – Literature and sources

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Logistics Real Estate – Market and Regions 2011

Preface by the author

The study »Logistics Real Estate – Markets and Regions 2011«

� statistically measures structures and key figures of the logistics real estate market in Germany, Austria and Switzerland,

� methodically identifies and describes the top logistics regions in these countries

� illustrates the development of the logistics real estate market in recent years (measured in terms of new buildings)

� also describes – besides the attractiveness of loca-tions and the intensity concerning the settlement of logistics real estate – a dynamic index showing the development or the development potential of logistics locations

� provides detailed profiles of the top logistics locations in the DACH-region, incl. important information about strengths and weaknesses, key figures of business parks, rental prices and logistics real estate as well as an analysis of the current development of the location

� describes and debates current thematic foci such as »sustainability« or »green building«, »settlement acceptance« and »economic crisis«

»Logistics real estate are still attractive investment objects. The settlement, building and development of logistics centers and logistics real estate ensure economi-cal and financial success for investors, project developers, users and municipalities – if all requirements are met.

The study »Logistics real estate – Markets and Loca-tions 2011. Germany, Austria, Switzerland« analyzes and evaluates these requirements in a scientifically based way. Two years after the first research on the German logistics real estate market, Fraunhofer SCS now presents a com-prehensively updated and extended edition: In addition to Germany, Austria and Switzerland have been inclu-ded in the analysis for 2011. Furthermore, the individual development of each region is presented, the sectoral relevance of each region is evaluated and the importance and effectiveness of the main topics like sustainability and resident acceptance are verified.

Thus, the study brings transparency to the logistics real estate market and forms the basis of all investment de-cisions as well as location and real estate validations. We thank our partners for their constructive cooperation and hope the readers will enjoy reading this study.«

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Vorwort des AutorsBesonderer Dank gilt dabei den Partnern der Studie

- Deka Immobilien GmbH- Goldbeck International GmbH- ING Real Estate Investment Management GmbH- Jones Lang LaSalle GmbH- ProLogis Germany Management GmbH

Sie haben die recht umfangreichen und auf-wendigen Recherchearbeiten erst ermöglicht. In mehreren Expertenrunden brachten die Vertreter der Partnerunternehmen ihre jahre-lange Erfahrung ein. Intensive Diskussionen, die Zulieferung von Immobiliendaten und kreative Ideen der Partner trugen maßgeblich zum Gelingen der Studie bei. Die Qualität des Ergebnisses basiert aber im Besonderen auf der Auswahl der kooperierenden Unternehmen, die in ihrer Zusammensetzung nahezu alle relevan-ten Bereiche des Logistikimmobilienmarktes abdecken.

Die Studie soll in den nächsten Jahren kontinu-ierlich fortgeschrieben werden. Dabei werden jeweils unterschiedliche Themenschwerpunkte im Bereich der Logistikimmobilien im Fokus stehen.

Vorwort des Autors

Alexander NehmProjektleiterFraunhofer ATL

Obwohl der Markt für Logistikimmobilien in Deutschland boomt, liegt bisher noch keine umfassende wissenschaftliche Untersuchung vor. In öffentlichen Statistiken werden die Logistik- wie Immobilienbranche kaum berück-sichtigt, so dass auf wichtige Marktkennzahlen und -daten nicht direkt zurückgegriffen werden kann. Auch die Frage nach relevanten Logistik-standorten in Deutschland – neben den be-kannten TOP 5 – wurde bisher nicht ausrei-chend geklärt. Mit der aktuellen Studie „Lo-gistikimmobilien in Deutschland – Markt und Standorte“ schließt die Fraunhofer ATL die vorhandenen Research-Lücken.

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»Thanks to this study, we have gained greater certainty in decision-making. And finally, this study has further increased the importance of logistics real estate as an investment for our portfolios. Therefore, we look forward to the updated edition of the study, which has been expanded to include Austria and Switzerland.«

»The study, published in March 2009, collected the lo-gistics real estate data in an integrated way and displayed it clearly. The dynamics of the market change makes it necessary to extrapolate the existing data and supple-ment it by new aspects.«

»Specifications of logistics real estate will have a lasting effect, so that – apart from own experiences – also scientifically based perceptions should be included in the decision-making process. The market transparency, deve-loped by the present study of Fraunhofer SCS, provides an excellent guideline.«

»Our company has established itself as a developer and portfolio manager of logistics real estate in this market environment. All decision- making in our company should be based on facts and not on opinions. We are convinced that this study of Fraunhofer SCS can significantly contri-bute to knowledge enhancement in the logistics market.«

»The first study of 2009 quickly became the standard reference for the logistics real estate sector. For location evaluations by investors, developers, evaluators and ban-king institutions, the present revised version of the study forms an essential working basis.«

»As regards the all-important question of the ideal location, we need to convince cities and municipalities to use their properties for logistics purposes. Thanks to the analysis of regions that are not part of the »big 5«, we can give our customers scientifically substantiated recom-mendations for alternative locations.«

Dr. Malte-Maria Münchow Manager Purchase and Sales (retail trade – hotel – logistics) Deka Immobilien GmbH

Hans-Jörg Simon Director Deutsche Lagerhaus GmbH & Co KG

Uwe Brackmann Director GOLDBECK International GmbH

Rainer Koepke Director Industrial Real Estate Germany Jones Lang LaSalle GmbH

Frank Böschemeier Director Kraftverkehr Nagel GmbH & Co. KG

Alexander Heubes Vice President and Market Officer West Germany Prologis Germany Management

Our partners Statements

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The last years were very difficult for the logistics real estate market. Especially the economic and financial crisis has left its marks. The decline of the economy initially in-fluenced the logistics sector, which in turn had a negative impact on the logistics real estate market. However, the high dependency of the logistics sector on the economic dynamic also led to a quick recovery of the logistics real estate market in 2010 and a resumption of temporarily suspended real estate projects.

The construction activity has still not reached its pre-cri-sis level. The main reason for this is that first the existing warehouses were replenished. How-ever, the growth rate for newly built logistics real estate is on the increase again since 2011. Even in this sector, there are great changes in the market structure. Especially trading companies, which were investing strongly during the crisis, now dominate the market as owner-occupiers, thus replacing the logi-stics service providers as the biggest area developers of logistics real estate.

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Development of building space by user industries

In the current study, the newly developed dynamic in-dex is introduced. This index concentrates on the issue of market development and illustrates the regions with the biggest market development since the start of the crisis.

Also, topics like »sustainabilty«, »third party usability« and »image problems in the population« had a great influence on the market and in these terms the develop-ment of logistics real estate had to face big challenges. A separate chapter discusses the latest developments and provides a thorough overview of the current requirements concerning the above mentioned issues.

Logistics real estate A market faces turbulent times

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Not only the logistics regions have benefited again from the increasing demand for space by the logistics sector since 2010. Numerous regions have meanwhile discovered this attractive market which is reflected i.a. by the increased number of logistics initiatives and logistics-related orientation of business development corporations. Correspondingly, the current study focuses strongly on the identification and evaluation of logistics regions.

The discussion about logistics regions is characterized by the consideration of congested urban areas or ap-propriate logistics regions. From individual buildings or logistics-oriented business parks up to congested urban areas or even federal states, people speak of »logistics regions« which almost always offer excellent location factors and should therefore attract new investors. All too often, the position »in the heart of Europe« is advertised as a putatively unique logistical strength of a region, kno-wing that, depending on the definition of »Europe«, this could apply to nearly every territory in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

The methodology for the identification of logistics loca-tions of the last study which has now been updated and refined pursues a neutral and decentralized approach and is unique in its level of detail. To answer the question of how attractive a region is for potential logistics settle-ments, data of 25 demographic, economic and infrastruc-tural factors have been collected on administrative district level and later evaluated. Also, the concentration of the logistics sector within a specific region has been analyzed.

The two resulting consideration perspectives produce a very precise and neutral picture of the current geogra-phical logistics situation in Germany, Austria and Switzer-land:

� The attractiveness index measures the general require-ments and the location supply for logistics settlements on the level of NUTS-3 regions.

� The intensity index provides information about the concentration of logistics real estate and the num-ber of logistics real estate on the level of postcode districts.

By comparing these two aspects not only the establis-hed logistics locations are depicted but also regions which have so far received less public attention concerning logi-stics settlements. By combining both indices, a total of 28 logistics regions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland can be identified – all with attractive general requirements for logistics as well as an above-average logistics intensity.

Logistics regions Germany, Austria and Switzerland

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For various reasons, a classic ranking of these regions is not very reasonable. The logistical demands of the settlers are too different – just like the range of services of the locations. Not every logistics region can fulfill all reques-ted location criteria.

Accordingly, a classification is needed which meets the specific requirements of a location. The classification in this study is based on six logistics functions that are typi-cally assumed by the respective regions.

Thereby global gateways, European gateways, regional distributors (industry), regional distributors (congested urban area), interregional portals and central hubs can be distinguished.

Due to the identified attractiveness and intensity results, the regions can additionally be classified into four categories according to their current position in the competition of locations: Champions, Classics, Establis-hed and Followers.

The combined result is a comprehensive picture of logistics locations in Germany, Austria and Switzerland which reflects the relevance of the respective regions in a realistic and well-grounded way:

Champions

� Duisburg/Lower Rhine

� Hamburg

� Rhine-Main

Classics

� Basel

� Berlin/Brandenburg

� Bremen

� Hanover

� Cologne Cove

Classics (continued)

� Munic

� Nuremberg

� Eastern Ruhr district

� Stuttgart

� Vienna

Established

� Leipzig/Halle

� Linz

� »Central Germany«

� Münster/Osnabrück

� Rhine-Neckar

� Swabia

� Zurich

Followers

� Danube

� Erfurt

� Graz

� Klagenfurt

� Upper Rhine

� Saarland

� Salzburg

� Western Switzerland

The 28 logistics regions Sorted by categories

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Champions: Hamburg, Rhine-Main, Duisburg/Lower RhineClassics: Cologne Cove, Berlin, Eastern Ruhr district, Munich, Hanover, Bremen, Nuremberg, Stuttgart, Basel, ViennaEstablished: Rhine-Neckar, Swabia, Central Germany, Münster/Osnabrück, Leipzig, Zurich, LinzFollowers: Upper Rhine, Danube, Erfurt, Saarland, Salzburg, Western Switzerland, Graz, Klagenfurt

The Fraunhofer logistics map The Top logistics regions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland

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In this edition of the study, it was possible for the first time to analyze the local intensity of logistics real estate by the industrial sector. The results show significant diffe-rences in the choice of location of certain industrial sec-tors depending on the functions of their logistics centers which are orientated on various factors. Exemplarily, the automotive, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry as well as wholesale and retail trade have been analyzed concerning their settlement focus.

This evaluation reveals: The factors of a settlement decision depend on the logistical functions that shall be executed in a specific location.

Therefore, as in the previous study, five generic types of settlement, which reflect the diverse needs of the diffe-rent users of logistics real estate, have been identified and described.

The task-specific attractiveness maps have been expan-ded to include Austria and Switzerland, and allow a more differentiated view of the respective logistics locations. With their assistance, regions that – due to their specia-lized offer – have a high potential for specific settlements can now be identified.

Another novelty in this edition is the dynamic index. It analyzes which region benefited most from the invest-ment activities in the logistics real estate sector, especially in the crisis-ridden period from the beginning of 2009 until today. On the one hand, this observation allows to draw conclusions about the »resilience« of logistics lo-cations. On the other hand, the »status quo« analysis of the attractiveness and intensity index is thereby extended by a present and dynamic component. Also here, the top regions Hamburg, Duisburg/ Lower Rhine and Rhine-Main stand out for their very positive development. But also numerous other, sometimes less well-known regions, came off well.

Regional sector intensity wholesalel

Logistikattraktivität

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User-specific logistics locations A differentiated approach

5 types of logistics settlements

Logistikstandort Produktionsstandort Ballungszentrum

Produktions (Quellen) orientiert–Bündelung & Entsorgung

Import (Quellen) orientiert –Bündelung & Distribution

Markt (Senken) orientiert –Zentraldistribution

Netzwerkorientiert –Strategisch

Ballungsraum (Senken) orientiert–Regionale Distribution

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Finally, the detailed location profiles for the 28 identi-fied logistics regions are an important part of the study. These profiles are compared with each other based on various criteria. As a result, strengths and weaknesses are presented and potential settlement areas are listed.

Detailed location profiles Hard facts for the top logistics regions

Moreover, rental prices, building areas, average sizes and user industries of local logistics real estate as well as the latest developments are presented for the German logistics regions. This evaluation of the branch specific lo-gistics intensity reveals the following: The decision for or against a settlement depends on the logistical functions that shall be executed in a specific location.

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Send to: or via: Fraunhofer Verlag Phone: +49 711 970-2500 Fraunhofer-Informationszentrum Raum und Bau IRB Fax: +49 711 970-2508 Postfach 80 04 69 E-Mail: verlag@fraunhofer.de70504 Stuttgart I hereby bindingly order the study

Logistikimmobilien – Markt und Standorte 2011. Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz

ISBN 978-3-8396-0334-5 (please note: the study is only available in German)

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