A ‘Sustainability Window’

of Urban Form

A conceptual framework for assessing

urban transport externalities

Steffen Lohrey and Felix Creutzig

Lohrey S. and Creutzig F., A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form,

Resubmitted to Transport Research Part D, 2015

CFCC15 - July 7th, 2015 Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form 1

Urban Form and Urban Transport …

• Sprawled cities -> Higher

carbon emissions

• Other concerns?

CFCC15 - July 7th, 2015 2 Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

Urban Economics

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Monocentric city model with modifications for different

transport prices and modal shares as a baseline

Computing environmental, economic and social concerns

Climate Change

Air Pollution

Congestion

Utility Modification of urban economics model equations

Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

Plotting these concerns into a

modal share – density space …

CFCC15 - July 7th, 2015 4 Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

… leading to a

‘Sustainability Window‘ of Urban Form

CFCC15 - July 7th, 2015 5 Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

‘Sustainability Window‘ of Urban Form

- Modifications -

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Electric cars: No local air pollution Ambitious climate change mitigation

Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

Empirics

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Climate Change:

Colors depict transport CO2 emissions

(per capita)

Air pollution: Colors depict PM2.5 concentration

Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

Conclusion

• ‘Sustainability Window’: A conceptual framework to

asssess the interplay of urban transport, urban form and

associated environmental, economic and social concerns

(“externalities” in economic parlance)

• Tradeoffs between density and quality of life

• Crucial thresholds: A minimum density requirement of 50

persons/ha?

• More detailed analysis needed for policy-making

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Thank you.

CFCC15 - July 7th, 2015 9 Steffen Lohrey - A ‘Sustainability Window’ of Urban Form

Contact

MCC was founded jointly by the Stiftung Mercator and

the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Contact: Steffen Lohrey

Mercator Research Institute on

Global Commons and Climate Change gGmbH

Torgauer Str. 12–15 | 10829 Berlin | Germany

phone +49 (0) 30 338 55 37 - 101

e-mail lohrey@mcc-berlin.net

web www.mcc-berlin.net