londons migration across the recession lse london 22 nd march 2011
TRANSCRIPT
London’s Migration across the RecessionLSE London
22nd March 2011
Outline
Internal Migration– Rest of UK and adjacent regions– Age patterns
Long-Term International Migration– London numbers– UK details
Overall Migration Other Evidence
– NHS Flag 4s – National Insurance
Conclusions?
London: Internal Migration Trends
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2001
-4
2002
-1
2002
-2
2002
-3
2002
-4
2003
-1
2003
-2
2003
-3
2003
-4
2004
-1
2004
-2
2004
-3
2004
-4
2005
-1
2005
-2
2005
-3
2005
-4
2006
-1
2006
-2
2006
-3
2006
-4
2007
-1
2007
-2
2007
-3
2007
-4
2008
-1
2008
-2
2008
-3
2008
-4
2009
-1
2009
-2
2009
-3
2009
-4
2010
-1
2010
-2
Year Ending Quarter:
thou
sand
s
In Out -ve Net
London: Adjacent Regions (thousands)
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
200.0
2001
-4
2002
-1
2002
-2
2002
-3
2002
-4
2003
-1
2003
-2
2003
-3
2003
-4
2004
-1
2004
-2
2004
-3
2004
-4
2005
-1
2005
-2
2005
-3
2005
-4
2006
-1
2006
-2
2006
-3
2006
-4
2007
-1
2007
-2
2007
-3
2007
-4
2008
-1
2008
-2
2008
-3
2008
-4
2009
-1
2009
-2
2009
-3
2009
-4
2010
-1
2010
-2
L=>ESE ESE=>L Net
London: Net Moves in ‘South East’ (thousands)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2001
-4
2002
-1
2002
-2
2002
-3
2002
-4
2003
-1
2003
-2
2003
-3
2003
-4
2004
-1
2004
-2
2004
-3
2004
-4
2005
-1
2005
-2
2005
-3
2005
-4
2006
-1
2006
-2
2006
-3
2006
-4
2007
-1
2007
-2
2007
-3
2007
-4
2008
-1
2008
-2
2008
-3
2008
-4
2009
-1
2009
-2
2009
-3
2009
-4
2010
-1
2010
-2
L=>E L=>SE E=>SE
London: Net Moves with Rest of UK
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2001
-4
2002
-1
2002
-2
2002
-3
2002
-4
2003
-1
2003
-2
2003
-3
2003
-4
2004
-1
2004
-2
2004
-3
2004
-4
2005
-1
2005
-2
2005
-3
2005
-4
2006
-1
2006
-2
2006
-3
2006
-4
2007
-1
2007
-2
2007
-3
2007
-4
2008
-1
2008
-2
2008
-3
2008
-4
2009
-1
2009
-2
2009
-3
2009
-4
2010
-1
2010
-2
tho
usa
nd
s
UK East South East Rest of UK
London Moves with Rest of UK: 2007 Q2
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Age-group
In Out Net
London Moves with Rest of UK: 2009 Q3
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Age-group
In Out Net
London - Rest of UK: % Change 07Q2-09Q3
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Age-group
Per
cent
age
Chan
ge
In Out
‘South East’: % Changes: 2006-07 to 2009-10
From:East London S East Rest UK Total
To: East - -16.2 -5.8 -1.1 -8.7London 3.2 - 1.8 10.2 6.1South East -7.5 -11.0 - -3.5 -7.3Rest UK -10.0 -8.6 -12.1 - -
Total -6.2 -11.5 -7.5 - -5.5
London: International Trends (LTIM)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2000
-01
2001
2001
-02
2002
2002
-03
2003
2003
-04
2004
2004
-05
2005
2005
-06
2006
2006
-07
2007
2007
-08
2008
2008
-09
2009
2009
-10
Trend
tho
usa
nd
s
London In
London Out
London Net
In Trend
Out Trend
Net Trend
UK: International Trends (LTIM)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2000
-01
2001
2001
-02
2002
2002
-03
2003
2003
-04
2004
2004
-05
2005
2005
-06
2006
2006
-07
2007
2007
-08
2008
2008
-09
2009
2009
-10
Trend
tho
usa
nd
s
UK In
UK Out
UK Net
In Trend
Out Trend
Net Trend
London: International Flows: Percentage of UK
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2000-01
2001 2001-02
2002 2002-03
2003 2003-04
2004 2004-05
2005 2005-06
2006 2006-07
2007 2007-08
2008 2008-09
2009
Per
Cen
t
UK In
UK Out
UK Net
UK: Net Flow by Citizenship (ONSCD Chart)
Total Net
Non-British Net
British Net
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
thousands
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
UK: Gross Flows by Citizenship (ONSCD Chart)
British In
Non-British In
British Out
Non-British Out
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
thousands
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
UK: Gross Flows by Reason (ONSCD Chart)
Work
Family
Study
Other/Not Stated
Work
Family
Other/Not Stated
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
thousands
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
UK: IPS Trends (thousands)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2002
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
In Out Net
UK: A8 Migration Trends (IPS)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
Year to end:
thou
sand
s
To UK From UK Net
London: Total Migration Flows
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001-4 2002-2 2002-4 2003-2 2003-4 2004-2 2004-4 2005-2 2005-4 2006-2 2006-4 2007-2 2007-4 2008-2 2008-4 2009-2 2009-4
tho
usa
nd
s
Total In Total Out Net
NHS Flag 4s: London and E&W
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
tho
usa
nd
s
E&W London
NINos: London and UK
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
tho
usa
nd
s
UK London
London ‘Inflow’ Comparisons
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2002
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
tho
usa
nd
s
NINO
Flag 4
LTIM
Conclusions?
Recession impact seen with internal migration– Record inflows– Net inflows from beyond ‘South East/East’– Triple whammy on Reception class demand– Retirement moves collapse
International migration – London going its own way– Declining inflow – rising outflow – reduced net inflow
Consistency of data sources?
