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Long Kondratieff’ Waves and Cosmic Weather

B.M. Vladimirsky

Taurida V.I. Vernadsky UniversityCrimea, Simferopol, Ukraine

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N.D. Kondratieff (1892-1938)

Long waves in generalized economic indeces with the period

about 50 years have been revealed as a world

phenomenon by N.D. Kondratieff (1925).

Now it’s universally recognized that these

waves are autooscillations in world economic system.

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Some other scientists referenced:Have been revealed firstly long waves in the creativity for European physics in the

18th and 19th centuries (1929)

Considered long waves as a sociocultural phenomenon. Suggested the changing of the style of intellectual life synchronized with the variations of economic indeces.

Interpeted alternation intellectual styles as change of the domination left (right)

hemispheres of the brain on social level.

Determined reliably the epochs of the domination of left (right) hemispheric styles of the life in the Europe

using the measurements of special indeces in fine arts (analitical or synthetical signs in the musics,

architecture etc.)

T.I. Reinoff (1888-1958)

S.Yu. Maslov (1939-1982)

V.M. Petrov

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№Maximum of Long

wave (years), Goldstain, 1988

Nearest maximum of solar activity (years),

Nagovitsyn et al., 2004.

Cycle’s number

The difference Lw – Sa = Δ, years.

1 1529 1528 –20 +1

2 1559 1558 –17 +1

3 1595 1594 –14 +1

4 1650 1651 –9 +1

5 1720 1717 –3 +3

6 1762 1761 1 +1

7 1814 1816 6 –2

8 1872 1870 11 +2

9 1917 1917 15 0

10 1968 1968 20 0

T=54,9±9,0 from maximum to maximum,

excluding event No.2

Δn = 5,1±0,6 without of the

No.2

Δ = +0,8±1,2|Δ| = 1,2±0,7

A comparison of the maxima of Long waves with the nearest maxima of solar activity

5The curve is Wolf’ numbersThe points are aa – index.

The duration of 11-year period of solar activity are

changing, so Long waves are also the

cycles, not fixed periods.

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Averaged profile for Long Kondratieff’s wave calculated by superpose epoch

method for index war activity (H. Wheeler,

the curve) and geomagnetic index aa (the points)/ The

data for 13-20 centuries were used.

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The number of the discoveries per year – mean profile for Long wave

(superpose epoch method). The data for mathematics, natural sciences, medicine and technology according the list of Ch.

Murrey, 2003. Total number of the events 342.

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The same mean profile for Long wave in discoveries, but for another primary data

(K. Twist, 1999). The points – natural sciences, the curve – fine Arts. Total numbers of the

events accordingly 321 and 385.

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The some mean profile for Long

waves but for the summary ranges of the writers and

the poets as calculated by

Ch. Murrey (2003).

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V.M. Petrov Analytical signs – Synthetical signs(J.L.David, +0,72) (E. Delacrua, –0,75)

All the time intervals, classified by Petrov using analytical – synthetical signs, were summarised by superposed epoch method. The data for the painting, architecture and music were used jointly

for 15-20 centures.

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Main conclusions.1. Long Kondratieff’s waves are synhronized by solar

activity’ variations, probably via magnetospheric processes;

2. creative productivity in rational sphere increases during ascent-decay phases of Long wave, but it diminishes about the maximum; within the Long wave there are regular variations of the predominance of left-right hemisphere’s activity – in an agreement with Maslov model;

3. Long waves is probably the same social cycle which was included into ancient calendar systems – 60-years animal cycle, 52-year mayan cycle; possibly it is most important cycle of social activity;

4. Forth coming maximum of Kondratieff’s wave will come probably in year of maximum of 25th solar cycle, about 2023.