long term (3 to 6 months)...would potentially set eu's economy back months in comparison to the uk...

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

47% 69% 58%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

The Dow Jones recorded the worst weekly fall since October as several hedge funds

minimized risky exposures and booked profits to offset losses on short bets such as on

GameStop which have seen a massive short squeeze due to the influence of forums

such as Wallstreetbets on Reddit. The economic survey released on Friday projected a

real GDP growth of 11% for FY22. For FY21, it projected a GDP contraction of 7.7%

and it pegged the central government fiscal deficit at close to 7% of GDP. There was

encouraging data over the weekend with GST collections touching a record high of

Rs 1.2 lakh crs for the month of January. Formalization of the economy and

crackdown on evaders seem to be bearing fruit. The focus will be on the FM's budget

speech today, scheduled to begin at 11 am. Key points to watched out would be; the

gross borrowing number and fiscal deficit target for FY22, the quality of expenditure

and share of CAPEX in total expenditure, reforms in the banking sector and steps to

deepen the bond markets, liberalization in FDI rules, disinvestment and strategic stake

sale targets.Urban and Rural infrastructure, health infrastructure, housing, agriculture,

domestic manufacturing are likely to be the focus areas in the budget.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover a part of their exposure on upticks to 73.80-

73.90. Importers are advised to cover through options. The 3M range for USDINR is

72.50 – 74.40 and the 6M range is 73.00 – 76.00.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● China's factory recovery slows in January as COVID-19 returns

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● Rate hike would be devastating - ECB's Schnabel

● Parliamentary panel asks FCI to recover Rs 105.40 crore dues

India's budget aiming to revive

economy despite limited fiscal

headroom

● Dollar supported by haven demand after retail frenzy bruises risk sentiment

● GST revenue collection for January 2021 is at record high

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

72.50-74.90

1.3125-1.3650 ↑

0.7150-0.7750 ↑

73.00-76.00

$1800- $2000 ↑

73.00-76.00

$1700- $2200 ↑

107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00

1.1700-1.2200 ↑

89.00 - 93.00 ↓

1.1950-1.2350 ↑

$1800- $2100 ↑

104.00-108.00 ↓

February 1, 2021

Q2 FY 2021-22

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.2050 - 1.2160)

Sterling surged towards 1.3751 levels majorly due to the fast

vaccination process which boosted sentiments. Also, in the recent talks

between UK PM and EU Commission, both agreed that no measures

would affect fulfillment of existing contractual obligations. Pound is

likely to get influenced by the release of manufacturing data from the

nation later today.

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.3690 - 1.3760)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2021-22

FX Outlook for the day

● USDINR (RANGE - 72.70 - 73.35)

Yen weakened towards 104.93 levels as US Dollar Index move towards

north with traders remaining wary amid the battle on Wall Street

between hedge funds and retail investors. Japanese Yen is likely to

trade in a range bound manner as markets discount the robust release

of inflation data from the nation that came better than expected levels

coupled with slight strength in DXY.

Rupee made a gap down opening at 72.89 levels and is likely to trade

in a cautious mode prior to the Union Budget release. 72.50 is an

extremely crucial support for the currency, break of which could

trigger stops in a knee jerk move. On the up side, the key level to watch

would be 73.50. RBI is expected to step in to smoothen volatility in case

of an extreme move on either direction.

Euro was slightly volatile but managed to hit 1.2156. It later erased

some of its gains as markets feel that vaccination export restrictions

would potentially set EU's economy back months in comparison to the

UK and US. Euro is likely to trade with a bearish bias after a policy

member stated that rate hikes in the current environment would have

a devastating impact.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 104.40 - 105.00)

Q4 FY 2020-21

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

1.1450-1.2000 ↑

Q1 FY 2021-22

0.7200- 0.7600

91.20- 95.50

1.3100-1.3600 ↑ 1.3400-1.4000 ↑

0.7150- 0.7650 ↑

95.00- 100.00 ↓ 95.00- 100.00 ↓

$1700- $2200 ↑

1.1600-1.2150 ↑

1.3500-1.4150 ↑

73.00 - 77.00 ↑

0.7200- 0.7600


103.00 - 106.00 ↓

Focus this week to

be on the Union

Budget, BOE

Monetary Policy &

RBI Monetary Policy

“

”

“

”

“

”

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

February 1, 2021

● USDINR Open Interest (February expiry )


Highest OI for Call &

Put is seen at 74.00

& 73.00. Highest OI

intraday buildup for

Call is seen at 73.00

& for Put is seen at

72.00.


Chart of the DayUSDINR: 72.89

USDINR made a gap down opening today at 72.89

levels. Immediate resistance to be at 73.35 (Super

trend). On the flipside, 72.50 is an extremely crucial

support, break of which could trigger stops. Major

technical indicators suggest neutral view for intraday.

FIIs have so far

infused $30.99

billion in the

Financial year 2020-

21

Activity Kurtosis

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.08 0.12 0.22 0.31 USDINR 0.24 0.99 3.52 7.26

EUR -0.58 -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 EURINR 0.35 1.37 5.06 10.47

JPY 0.04 -0.06 -0.07 0.04 GBPINR 0.34 1.40 5.08 10.42

JPYINR 0.25 1.02 3.72 7.77

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 28752 1.65 1861.95 22.41 1.22

3486 0.10 28.57 1.60 5.95

27983 1.16 52.43 0.23 0.44

INDIA 46577 0.63 90.54 -0.07 -0.08

13713 0.57 109.37 -0.16 -0.15

5399 -2.02

13433 -1.71 FY 2020-21 CY 2021 29-Jan-21

6407 -1.82 2,37,764 19,473 -3,781

US 29983 -2.03 -21,876 -4,824 345

13071 -2.00 10,178 -17 0

2,26,066 14,632 -3,436

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2USDINR 72.60 72.77 72.96 73.13 73.32

EURINR 87.49 87.99 88.44 88.94 89.39

GBPINR 98.73 99.37 99.88 100.52 101.03

JPYINR 68.93 69.28 69.85 70.20 70.77

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

29-Jan EUR 12:30 PM 0.10% 0.0% 8.2% Bullish

USD 8:30 PM -0.3% -0.5% -2.6% Bullish

1-Feb CNY 6:30 AM 52.4 55.1 55.7 Bearish

IND 11:00 AM

EUR 12:30 AM -2.0% 1.9%

GBP 3:00 PM 52.9 52.9

USD 8:30 PM 60.0 60.7


Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

German Prelim GDP QoQ

DEBT

German Retail Sales MoM

Final Manufacturing PMI

ISM Manufacturing PMI

FTSE

Union Budget 2021-22

Pending Home Sales MoM

Pivot Points

HYBRID

USDINR pair is likely to face immediate

resistance at 73.13 (R1)

DOW

NASDAQ

Non-Manufacturing PMI


Figures are in INR Crores

Dollar INDEX

Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)

CAC

DAX

Major Global Rates

LIBOR Rates

COMMODITIES/DIGLOBAL INDICES

Quick Glance

FPI INFLOWS

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)

Brent ($/brl)

SILVER ($/ounce)

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

NIFTY

February 1, 2021

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments.

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long term (3 to 6 months)...would potentially set eu's economy back months in comparison to the uk...

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