Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Jiyong Eom and Leon E. Clarke JGCRI, USA

Priyadarshi R. Shukla IIM Ahmedabad, India

Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

Some recent efforts using GCAM- IIM version

! Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. 2011. Sustainable energy transformations in India under climate policy. Sustainable Development, DOI: 10.1002/sd.516

! Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: A targeted approach. Under review

! Chaturvedi V, Eom J, Clarke LE and Shukla PR. Modeling long term building energy demand for India.

2

Background

! High economic growth expected for India, more than 8-9% in the near future (Assumptions based on GoI documents)

! Population more than 1.2 Bn

! Rapid urbanization

! Managing energy demand and ensuring adequate and reliable energy supply important challenges for Indian policy

3

Modeling Building Energy Use:

Moving from Supply to Demand

5

Building energy consumption in India

• More than 45% of total final energy in India consumed in the building sector in 2005

• High reliance on traditional biomass

• Significant difference in rural and urban energy consumption profiles

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

Final energy consumption

Building

Transportation

Industry

India Buildings’ Energy Consumption (2005)

0  

1  

2  

3  

4  

5  

6  

Urban   Rural   Commercial  

Energy  Con

sump.

on  on  2005  (E

J)  

Kerosene  

Gas  

Coal  

Electricity  

LPG  

TradBiomass  

Appliance  

10.5%  

Cooling  2.5%  

HeaHng  0.1%  

Cooking  77.2%  

LighHng  9.6%  

Appliance

1.8%

Cooling 0.1%

Heating 0.0%

Cooking 93.9%

Lighting 4.2%

Appliance  

13.8%  

Cooling  2.9%  HeaHng  0.3%  

Cooking  75.9%  

LighHng  7.2%  

Source: IEA (2007)

Energy Service Demands

Commercial Building

Floorspace

India Population

GDP

Urban population

GDP

Rural population

GDP

Urban Building

Floorspace

Rural Building

Floorspace

Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting

Appliance

Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting

Appliance

Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting

Equipment

AC Air Cooler

Heater Cooker

Incandescent Fluorescent Solidstate

Lamp Appliances Equipment

Coal Gas Oil

Electricity Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use Technologies

Urbanization Floorspace Expansion

Delivered Fuels

Socioeconomic Assumption

The Detailed Model for Building Energy Use in India

•  Model framework based on Eom et al. (2011)

• Has been applied earlier to model China building energy demand

IDttDt IPkDemand εε= 1,

1, −

−= tSSt

ttSt PPkSupply εε

Floo

r spa

ce p

rice

[$ /

m2 ]

Floor space per capita [m2 per capita]

Demand increases with income

Parameters estimated based on National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data

The approach to Floor Space Expansion

Drivers of energy consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

m2/

capi

ta

Per capita floorspace

Rural

Urban

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

2005

Tho

usan

d U

SD

Per capita income

Rural

Urban

National Average

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mill

ions

Population

Rural

Urban

Increasing population in urban areas to drive floor space and energy service demands Per capita income gap assumed to converge by 2200

Demand for Building Services

Demand for Space Heating Service [GJ-output/m2] :

( )⎥⎥⎦

⎤

⎢⎢⎣

⎡

⎟⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜⎜

⎝

⎛⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛⋅−−⋅−⋅⋅⋅=

tH

t

HtHtttHtH P

YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffHDDkQ,

,2lnexp1

αλ

Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-output/m2]

Demand for Other Services (water heating & cooking, lighting, other appliances):

⎥⎥⎦

⎤

⎢⎢⎣

⎡⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛⋅−−⋅=

t

t

iit P

YkQα2lnexp1

( )⎥⎥⎦

⎤

⎢⎢⎣

⎡

⎟⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜⎜

⎝

⎛⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛⋅−−⋅+⋅⋅⋅=

tC

t

CtCtttCtC P

YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffCDDkQ,

,2lnexp1

αλ

Space Heating Requirement (satiated demand) Economic Behavior

Modeling the Change in Service Demands

Space Cooling Requirement (satiated demand) Economic Behavior

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Service   Technology   Fuel  

Space  Cooling  Air  condiHoner   Electric  Air  cooler   Electric  

Space  HeaHng  Room  heater   Electric  Building  heater   Electric  

Cooking  and  Water  HeaHng  

Gas  cooker   Liquefied  Petroleum  Gas    Gas  cooker   Natural  Gas  Electric  cooker   Electric  Coal  cooker   Coal  Biomass  cooker   Commercial  biomass  TradiHonal  biomass  cooker   TradiHonal  biomass  Kerosene  stove   Kerosene    

LighHng  Incandescent  bulbs   Electric  Fluorescent  bulbs     Electric  Solid  state  lighHng   Electric  Oil  Lamp   Kerosene    

Appliances   Generic  appliance  technology   Electric  

End Use Technologies

The Long-Term Evolution of India’s Building Energy Use

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0  

10  

20  

30  

40  

50  

60  

70  

80  

0   10   20   30   40   50  

Resid

enHa

l  Floorspace  pe

r  capita

 [m2]  

GDP  per  capita  [thous.  2000  USD  at  PPP]  

US  1990-­‐2004  

Denmark  1990-­‐2004  

Norway  1990-­‐2004  

Canada  1990-­‐2004  

NZ  1990-­‐2004  

UK  1990-­‐2004  

Japan  1990-­‐2004  

Netherlands  1990-­‐2004  

China  urban  1985-­‐2005  

China  rural  1985-­‐2005  

India  urban  projected  (2005  and  onwards)  India  rural  projected  (2005  and  onwards)  

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   10   20   30   40   50  Co

mmercial  Floorspace  pe

r  capita

 [m2]  

GDP  per  capita  [thous.  2000  USD  at  PPP]  

Canada  1990-­‐2004  

Denmark  1990-­‐2004  

Norway  1990-­‐2004  

NZ  1990-­‐2004  

UK  1990-­‐2004  

Japan  1990-­‐2004  

US  1990-­‐2004  

China  1985-­‐2005  

India  projected  (2005  and  onwards)  

Floor Space Expansion

Residential Commercial

Final energy consumption by service: Rural-Urban

Ø  Rapid expansion of cooling and appliances: results include changing degree day effect

Ø  Significant share of cooking also in the future

0  

4  

8  

12  

16  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Rural  

Cooking   Appliance   Cooling   LighHng   HeaHng  

0  

4  

8  

12  

16  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Urban  

Cooking   Appliance   Cooling   LighHng   HeaHng  

16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2005 2020 2050 2095

Avg

no. o

f uni

ts p

er H

H Urban-AC

Urban-Cooler

Rural-AC

Rural-Cooler

Space cooling technologies

q Low penetration of space cooling technologies in the base year

q High increase in AC ownership in the urban households between 2020 and 2050

q For rural households, this increase comes after 2050

17

0  

4  

8  

12  

16  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Final  energy  by  fuel-­‐  Rural  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

Final  energy  by  fuel-­‐  Urban  

Kerosene  

Gas  

Coal  

LPG  

Electricity  

Biomass  

TradBiomass  

Ø Dominance of electricity for cooling, heating, appliances, and lighting

Ø Gas, predominantly LPG, for cooking, takes a significant share

Ø Rapid phase out of traditional biomass

Final energy consumption by fuel: Rural-Urban

18

0  

2  

4  

6  

8  

10  

12  

2005  2020  2035  2050  2065  2080  2095  

Electricity    (GJ/capita)  

Rural  

Urban  

0  

2  

4  

6  

8  

10  

12  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

LPG  (GJ/capita)  

Rural  

Urban  

Electricity and LPG Ø Significant difference in urban and rural households’ consumption of electricity and LPG in 2005

Ø Rapid increase in per capita electricity consumption, moving towards developed country levels

Ø Decreasing gap: Especially LPG increase significant in rural areas

19

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

40  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Final  Energy  by  service  

HeaHng  

LighHng  

Cooling  

Appliance  

Cooking  

Aggregate final energy by service

o Commercial sector takes 48% share in buildings final energy consumption by century-end, similar to developed countries o Cooling, appliances, and lighting increase rapidly o Share of energy services similar to current profile of developed countries (Note: US heating and cooling have been adjusted by degree days for comparative purpose)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US- 2005

India- 2095

India- 2050

India-US Comparison

Impact of Climate Policy

• Low effect of carbon tax as limited substitution possibilities • Total final energy for India decreases by 15% in 2095, Almost 8% decrease in final energy in building sector under a climate policy • Alternative energy reduction policies important for Indian building sector

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

40  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Final  Energy-­‐  Climate  Policy  

Kerosene  

Gas  

Coal  

LPG  

Electricity  

Biomass  

TradBiomass  0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

40  

2005   2020   2035   2050   2065   2080   2095  

EJ  

Final  Energy-­‐  BAU    

Kerosene  

Gas  

Coal  

LPG  

Electricity  

Biomass  

TradBiomass  

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

Final Energy- Aggregate

BAU

Climate Policy

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To Conclude

• Rapid increase in floor space, especially in urban areas

• Services: High growth in cooling and appliance services

• Fuels: Dominance of electricity and gas

• Phase out of traditional biomass

• Indian building energy evolves towards developed countries’ pattern

• Limited impact of an emission mitigation policy, alternative energy reduction policies hold importance

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THANK YOU!