loudoun housing fulton end 2008

Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM)

December 2008 Data

Housing Market AnalysisLoudoun County

FULTON RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, INC.

11350 Random Hills RoadSuite 330Fairfax, VA 22030 540.338.2212 Direct1.703.673.9950 Fax www.fultonresearch.com

Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis

Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07

Loudoun 407 20% 9% 5.3 ‐11% ‐38% $315,000 4% ‐23% 101 7% ‐3%Aldie 20105 20 82% 82% 4.5 ‐48% ‐61% $505,699 5% 37% 105 192% 94%Middleburg 20117 2 ‐33% ‐50% 30.0 48% 122% $839,950 2% 125% 363 125% 25%Purcellville 20132 11 22% ‐35% 12.0 ‐22% 19% $458,455 37% 0% 163 44% 9%Round Hill 20141 7 ‐22% 75% 10.1 14% ‐49% $310,000 ‐3% ‐50% 273 207% 221%Ashburn 20147 51 31% 2% 4.6 ‐16% ‐43% $362,160 7% ‐3% 79 ‐8% ‐16%Ashburn 20148 28 180% ‐36% 6.0 ‐61% 31% $524,991 13% 8% 62 19% 15%Chantilly 20152 28 22% ‐10% 5.4 ‐5% ‐18% $463,924 5% ‐18% 61 ‐9% ‐26%Hamilton 20158 10 233% 400% 2.9 ‐78% ‐90% $833,470 30% 78% 198 ‐11% 106%Sterling 20164 84 29% 87% 3.9 2% ‐68% $208,062 8% ‐30% 84 ‐7% ‐33%Sterling 20165 34 21% 17% 3.9 ‐6% ‐51% $388,147 26% ‐3% 112 13% 6%Dulles 20166 13 18% 86% 4.7 17% ‐54% $376,090 34% 13% 58 ‐27% ‐49%Leesburg 20175 40 43% 43% 5.5 ‐29% ‐46% $390,188 26% ‐16% 113 9% ‐8%Lucketts 20176 75 53% 63% 5.2 ‐32% ‐59% $415,736 51% 9% 110 ‐6% ‐11%Lovettsville 20180 2 ‐67% ‐60% 34.0 219% 62% $519,450 25% 22% 340 204% 110%Waterford 20197 2 0% 0% 21.5 ‐4% 16% $722,350 416% ‐11% 58 ‐79% 81%Source: MRIS Black font indicates an improvement; red font indicates a loss

Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue typeTotal Sales UP Increased 20% from November after five consecutive months of declinesDetached Sales Down December's 188 sales of detached units was 15.3% less than the 2008 averageAttached Sales UP Sales of attached units exceeded sales of detached units for the last three consecutive monthsCondo Sales Flat Averaging 22 units per month in 2008 compared to 27 in 2007 (‐18.5%)Median Sales Price Down December's median was $59,950 below the 12‐month high in February 2008Avg Close Price: Detached Down Decreased in December by $81,846 (‐14.4%) since the high in January 2008

Avg Close Price: Attached Down Decreased in December by $85,899 (‐25.1%) since the high in January 2008Avg Close Price: Condo Flat The December average was 24.5% below the high recorded in October (‐$64,994)Close Price to List Price % UP Exceeded 90% nine of twelve months in 2008Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN Less than six months for the last seven consecutive months; the 2007 average was 8.3 monthsDays on Market DOWN The year‐end average was 4.9% less than the 2007 averageShort Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up Jumped 40.3% in December from NovemberShort Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Jumped 35% in December from November

Executive Summary

Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMPZip Code

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Loudoun County Housing Analysis

Notes concerning the data in this analysis

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added.

As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the "active", "contingency/kick out", "contingency/no kickout", and "app reg" statuses. Listings excludes the "contract", "expired" and "withdrawn" statuses.

As of October 31, 2008, zip code 20184 (Upperville) is included in 20117 (Middleburg); 20135 (Bluemont) is included in 20141 (Round Hill); 20129 (Paeonian Springs) is included in 20197 (Waterford); and 22066 (Great Falls) is included in 20165 (Sterling).

As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to "original list price".

House types excluded from this analysis include "bed & breakfast", "mobile", "other", "garage/park space", "house of worship", "dwelling w/rental", "double wide", "vacation home", or "vacation rental".

Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008.

Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008.

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Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices

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Year

Units % Change $ % Change2000 5,019 $209,000

Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices2000/2008

Total Sales Median Sales Price

, $ ,2001 6,179 23.1% $237,500 13.6%2002 6,735 9.0% $269,000 13.3%2003 8,255 22.6% $309,900 15.2%2004 9,381 13.6% $390,000 25.8%2005 9,123 ‐2.8% $485,000 24.4%2006 5,919 ‐35.1% $484,900 0.0%, $ ,2007 5,127 ‐13.4% $439,560 ‐9.4%2008 5,380 4.9% $346,500 ‐21.2%

Source: MRIS

Loudoun County Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices: 2000 ‐ 2008

$485,000 $484,9008,255

9,3819,123

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

8 000

9,000

10,000

MSP

Sales

$

$390,000

$439,560

$346,5005,019

6,179

6,735

5,919 $350,000

$400,000

$450,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

edia

n Sa

les

Pric

e

otal Ann

ual Sales

$209,000

$237,500

$269,000

$309,900,

5,127 5,380

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Me

To

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 4 of 15


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Close Price 2007 2008

< $200K 83 759

YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification

1,3231,3001,400

< $200K 83 759

$200s 553 1,300

$300s 1,323 1,227

$400s 1,142 737

$500s 719 590

$600s 551 339

1,142

1,227

1,000

1,200

es 2007$600s 551 339

$700s 324 193

$800s 177 103

$900s 75 56

$1Ms 156 66

$

553

719

551

324

759 737

590

339400

600

800

Total YTD

Sale

2008

> $2M 24 10

Total 5,127 5,380

2007 vs. 2008 Variance

< $200K 814.5%

83

324

177

75156

24

339

193

10356 66

100

200

400

$200K $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1M $2M$200s 135.1%

$300s ‐7.3% Source: MRIS

$400s ‐35.5%

$500s ‐17.9%

$600s ‐38.5%

The only units that had more annual sales in 2008 compared to 2007 were those priced below $300,000. The number of sales for homes priced below $200,000 is up by 815%.

< $200K $200s $300s $400s $500s $600s $700s $800s $900s $1Ms > $2M

$700s ‐40.4%

$800s ‐41.8%

$900s ‐25.3%

$1Ms ‐57.7%

> $2M ‐58.3%$

Page 5 of 15


Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 20.1%Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 9.1%

12 Month High: Jun 08 599

12 Month Low: Jan 08 2572008 Average 4482007 Average 4272006 Average 437

High Sales: 20164 84Low Sales: 20117/20197/20129 2

Source: MRIS

Sterling posted the highest sales among these markets in every month but February and its year‐end percentage of total county‐wide sales was 18% compared to 10.6% in 2007. The Ashburn zip code of 20147 gathered 14.4% of the total sales in 2008, showing a percentage decline from 16.5% in 2007.

Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months)

Sales rebounded in December after five consecutive months of declines and ended the year with a 5% increase in unit sales over2007. Based on the steadily increasing sales through June 2008, the 12‐month trend was us for the year.

Total Sales

257

305

380

464

554 599573 569 501

432

339 407

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08

Mon

thly Sales

20

2

117

51

28 28

10

84

34

13

40

75

2 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

Mon

thly Sales

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 4.0%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐23.2%12 Month High: Feb 08 $374,95012 Month Low: Nov 08 $303,000

2008 Average $341,8912007 Average $427,3132006 Average $465,421

High MSP: 20117 $839,950Low MSP: 20164 $208,062

Source: MRIS

The difference in median sales prices between Middleburg (20117) and Sterling (20164) was 300%. The difference in sales was 2 in Middleburg and 84 in Sterling during December.

Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months)

After five consecutive months declines, the MSP rebounded slightly in December. Although it's too soon to predict, rising prices may signal the end of the decessionary period. Median prices were down

Median Sales Price

$370,000$374,950

$358,225

$350,000$351,000

$359,000$350,000

$335,000

$320,000$316,518

$303,000

$315,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

$350,000

$375,000

$400,000


Med

ian Sales Price

$505,699

$839,950

$458,455

$310,000

$362,160

$524,991

$463,924

$833,470

$208,062

$388,147$376,090

$390,188$415,736

$519,450

$722,350

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

Med

ian Sales Price

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High SFD Sales: Jul 08 305Low SFD Sales: Jan 08 141

High SFA Sales: Jun 08 273

Low SFA Sales: Jan 08 101High CON Sales: Oct 08 32Low CON Sales: Feb 08 10

2008 SFD Average 2222007 SFD Average 2242008 SFA Average 2052007 SFA Average 1762008 CON Average 222007 CON Average 27

High SFD ACP: Jul 08 $567,988

Low SFD ACP: Jan 08 $472,486

High SFA ACP: Jun 08 $342,530Low SFA ACP: Jan 08 $250,314

High CON ACP: Oct 08 $265,392Low CON ACP: Feb 08 $161,356

2008 SFD Average $517,8052007 SFD Average $648,4862008 SFA Average $291,3732007 SFA Average $385,124

2008 CON Average $208,1852007 CON Average $263,942

Source: MRIS

The sales of attached units has exceeded the number of detached units for three consecutive months.

Compared to 2007, the ACP for detached units declined 20.2%; for attached units it declined 24.3%; and for condominium units it declined 21.1% by year end.

Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) by Product Type

Average Close Price by Product Type

141 149

188

238

271

304 305293

238

191

156188

101

146173

201

258273

247 246 237209

164202

15 10 19 25 25 22 21 30 26 3219 17

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Mon

thly Sales

SFD

SFA

CON

$559,098

$555,552$531,740

$491,520

$567,988$533,489

$506,646

$484,294

$486,866

$537,842

$472,486$486,142

$342,530$324,747

$309,510 $310,678 $301,319 $302,619$291,299 $270,798

$263,477$272,558

$250,314$256,631

$207,172$190,166

$229,357 $217,064$197,908

$249,613

$201,768 $205,287

$172,737 $161,356

$265,392

$200,398

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000


Average

Close Price SFD

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐10.58801%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐37.88488%

12 Month High: Jan 08 12.612 Month Low: Aug 08 5.1

2008 Average 7.12007 Average 8.32006 Average 8.3

High MSI: 20180 34.0Low MSI: 20158 2.9

Source: MRIS

The markets with the three highest supply of inventory each had two sales in December making the MSI very high. Six of the fifteen Loudoun markets are in equilibrium.

Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months)

Month's Supply of Inventory

The 2008 average of 7.1 months is 15.4% less than the 2007 average and 18.1% less than the 2006 average. And, the ratio of sales to listings has ranged from 5.1 months to 6.3 months for eight consecutive months signaling a large improvement over 2007. However, FRC considers the market to be in equilibrium (enough supply to satisfy demand) when the MSI is 4 to 5 months.

12.6

10.9

9.0

7.7

6.35.6 5.4

5.15.6 5.2

5.985.3

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08MSI

4.5

30.0

12.010.1

4.66.0 5.4

2.9 3.9 3.9 4.7 5.5 5.2

34.0

21.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

MSI

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High CP/LP %: Oct 08 93.2%Low CP/LP %: Jan 08 88.0%12 Month Average 91.0%

2008 Average 91.0%2007 Average 91.8%2006 Average 90.4%

High CP/LP %: 20197 96.4%Low CP/LP %: 20141 81.9%

Source: MRIS

Average Close Price to Average List Price %

Average Close Price to Average List Price %

This indicator shows the willingness of sellers to negotiate price ‐ the lower the percentage the more price discounts are taking place. It is also a sign that sellers are forced to decrease their asking prices when their houses remain on the market too long. Sellers are pricing more realistically, the long‐term trend is up. And, the December average was greater than the 2008 overall average.

88.0%

90.1%

88.5%

89.9%

91.4%91.7%

92.5%

91.5%

92.7%93.2%

91.1%

91.8%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%


CP to LP %

91.8%

84.8%85.7%

81.9%

95.5% 95.4%96.2%

85.2%

94.3%

89.8%

91.4%92.6%

89.2%

92.6%

96.4%

80.0%

82.0%

84.0%

86.0%

88.0%

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 7.4%

Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐2.9%

12 Month High: Mar 2008 124

12 Month Low: Oct 08 9212 Month Average 108

2008 Average 1082007 Average 1132006 Average 87

High DOMP: 20117 363Low DOMP: 20166 58

Source: MRIS

The fastest moving markets in the county were Ashburn (20147 & 20148), Chantilly (20152), Sterling (20164), Dulles (20166) and Waterford/Paeonian Springs (20197‐20184). All had average DOMP figures of less than 90 days. The slowest moving markets in December were Middleburg/Upperville (20117/20184), Round Hill (20141), Lovettsville (20180), and Hamilton (20158) with averages 6.6 to 12 months.

Monthly Days on Market (Last Twelve Months)

Monthly Days on Market

The 2008 DOMP average is now 4.9% lower than the 2007 average but is still 23.4% higher than the 2006 average. The DOMP figure has declined six of the last twelve months but following three consecutive months below 100 days, the average increased 7.4% in December to exceed 100 days.

123120

124

112

119

98

109

103

9792

94

101

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


Mon

thly DOMP

105

363

163

273

7962 61

198

84112

58

113 110

340

58

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

Mon

thly DOMP

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 40.3%

High: Jun 08 101

Low: Nov 08 67

Average 87

High Sales FCSS: 20164 27

Low Sales FCSS: 20117/20197 0

Source: MRIS

Sterling had the highest number of sales of foreclosure and short sale listings followed by Ashburn (20147) and Leesburg (20176). By year‐end, Sterling posted 31.3% of all short sale and foreclosure sales since April followed by second place Leesburg (12.2%) and Ashburn (10.3%).

The trendline for short sale and foreclosure sales was flat by year‐end following three consecutive months of declines although the December figure increased by 40% compared to November. At 94 sales, December's short sale and foreclosure sales were 9% higher than the 9‐month average.

Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales

Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales

5

02 2

11

3 2 2

27

7

4

10

18

0 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

Total FC/SS

69

80

101 99 100

89

80

67

94

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08

Listings: FCSS

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Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.9%

High: Dec 08 421

Low: Aug 08 235

Average 302

High FCSS Listings: 20164 102

Low FCSS Listings: 20117/20197 1

Source: MRIS

The number of listings in the county with a foreclosure, short sale, and/or REO property designation increased by 35% last month and was 8% more than the previous high of 390 reached in May. Following four consecutive months of increases, the 9‐month trend is up.

The more affluent markets in Loudoun, Middleburg (20017) and Waterford (20197), had the fewest foreclosure listings in December.

Caution : Realtors are not required to input these designations so these figures should be used to establish emerging trends only. These are NOT recorded foreclosures.

Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings

Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings

91

124

58

31 30

5

102

28

11

44

79

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197

Total FC/SS

307

390

252 248235

255

295312

421

200

250

300

350

400

450


Listings: FCSS

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High % FCSS Listings: Dec 08 19.3%

Low % FCSS Listings: Jun 08 7.5%

High % FCSS Solds: Dec 08 23.1%

Low % FCSS Solds: May 08 14.4%

Source: MRIS

The blue trendline shows that foreclosure and short sales in Loudoun County as a percentage of total sales is also increasing, it crossed the 20% barrier in December.

Foreclosures and Short Sale Listings as a Percentage of Total Listings

Foreclosures and Short Sale Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales

The 9‐month trend for the percentage of active listings with short sale and foreclosure designations rose in 2008. It has exceeded 10% for three consecutive months.

14.9% 14.4%16.9% 17.3% 17.6% 17.8% 18.5%

19.8%

23.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


Percen

tage of T

otal Sales

8.6%

11.2%

7.5%8.0% 8.1%

9.1%

13.1%

15.4%

19.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


Percen

tage of T

otal Listings

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Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Sales

Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Listings

20164 STERLING PARK 10 20164 STERLING PARK 41

20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 5 20152 SOUTH RIDING 15

20176 LANSDOWNE ON THE POTOMAC 4 20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 14

20175 VA KNOLLS 3 20164 NEWBERRY 12

20164 SUGARLAND RUN 3 20165 COUNTRYSIDE 12

20165 COUNTRYSIDE 3 20176 POTOMAC STATION 11

20147 ASHBURN FARM 3 20164 SUGARLAND RUN 11

20176 LOUDOUN HILLS 3 20176 LANSDOWNE 11

20176 POTOMAC STATION 3 20147 ASHBURN FARM 10

20165 POTOMAC LAKES 2 20176 POTOMAC CROSSING 9

20175 HUNTLAND HOMES 2 20148 BRAMBLETON LAND BAY 8

20164 NEWBERRY 2 20164 PEMBROOKE OF LOUDOUN 6

20164 HUNINGTON RIDGE 2 20175 CRESTWOOD HAMLET 6

20176 SYCAMORE HILL 2 20176 FOX CHASE 5

20175 LEESBURG GATEWAY II 2 20176 EDWARDS LANDING 5

20147 BELMONT LAND BAY 2 20176 EXETER 5

20164 STERLING PK SO TH 2 20165 POTOMAC LAKES 5

20175 VA KNOLLS 5

Source: MRIS

Partial list: Five or more sales per subdivision

Foreclosure and Short Sales by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008

Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008

Partial list: Two or more sales per subdivision

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loudoun housing fulton end 2008

Real Estate

foreclosuresolds upjumped40

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