low c-swapwell clear trade study preliminary results · •investigate trade space for detect and...

LowC-SWaP WellClearTradeStudyPreliminaryResults

UAS INTEGRATION IN THE NAS5 December,2017

GilbertWuSeungman LeeDevinJack

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170011691 2018-07-17T11:57:37+00:00Z

• Investigate trade space for Detect and Avoid (DAA) Well Clear definition for UAS with low cost, size, weight, and power (Low C-SWaP) sensors that detect and track non-cooperative aircraft• Recommend candidate DAA Well Clear (DWC) definition(s)

for the SC-228 to consider

Objectives

2

• Between non-cooperative aircraft and UAS with low C-SWaPsensors that are– Below 10,000 ft and above 500 ft AGL– During extended operations in classes D, E (non-terminal), or G (non-

terminal), or– During transit operations in classes B and C – For UAS within a certain speed range

ScopeofDWCApplicability

3

• Preliminary Results: December 5, 2017 at SC-228 F2F• Final results: February 20, 2018

Schedule

4

PerformanceMetrics

5

• Unmitigated collision risk– The probability of a near mid-air collision (NMAC) given a loss of DWC

– Denoted as P(NMAC|LoWC)

• Maneuver initiation point– Latest point for ownship to maneuver to maintain DWC

• Bearing, elevation, range, and closure rate distribution of intruders at the Loss of Well Clear (LoWC)

• CPA miss distance/time given LoWC

SelectionWorkflow

6

ACESGeneratedEncounters EncounterModel

DWCDefinitions

TargetP(NMAC|LoWC)Values

SelectDWCDefinitions

ManeuverInitiationPoint

AdditionalPerformance

Metrics

• DWC types and threshold values (* for threshold)– DWC1: h*, HMD*, modTau*– DWC2: h*, HMD*, tpz*– DWC3: Static hockey puck: h*, R*– DWC4: Dynamic hockey puck: h*, R*(rdot) = a* + rdot x b*

DWCDefinitions

7

Type h*(ft) HMD*(ft) modTau*(sec)DWC1 450 [1000,9000] [0,35]

Type h*(ft) HMD*(ft) Tpz*(sec)DWC2 450 [1000,9000] [0,35]

Type h*(ft) R*(ft)DWC3 450 [1000,9000]

Type h*(ft) a*(ft) b*(sec)DWC4 450 [1000,6000] [0,20]

ACESGeneratedEncounters

8

• 3.3millionencounters– betweenprojectedUAStrajectoriesandrecordedVFRtrafficfrom21daysinyear2012– Cooperativeaircraftregardedassurrogatesofnon-cooperative

• About60%oftheencountersareconsidered“lowC-SWaP”• 708NMACs(forlowC-SWaP)• NumberofLoWCs varies

ACESEncountersConsidered

9

UAS VFR

Prob

abilit

y

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240Ownship Airspeed (knots)

SpeedDistributionofOwnship

10

Prob

abilit

y

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 20 40 60 80 100 140 180 220 260 300 340 380 420 460Intruder Airspeed (knots)

SpeedDistributionofIntruder

11

Prob

abilit

y

0.03

0.05

0.08

0.10

0.13

0.15

0 1000 3000 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000Ownship Alittude (MSL)

AltitudeDistributionofOwnship

12

Prob

abilit

y

0.03

0.05

0.08

0.10

0.13

0.15

0 1000 3000 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000Intruder Altitude (MSL)

AltitudeDistributionofIntruderVFRAircraft

13

ExperimentalMatrix

• Modified Tau DWC– Total 45 settings– ModTau threshold (5 levels): 0, 8, 15, 25, 35 (sec)– HMD threshold (9 levels): 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500, 3000, 3500, 4000,

6500, 9000 (ft.)– Altitude threshold (1 level): 450 (ft)

• Time to Protected Zone (TPZ) DWC• Static Cylinder DWC• Dynamic Cylinder DWC

14

• P(NMAC|LoWC) is between 2% and 5%– Phase 1 P ~ 2.2%– Previous Lincoln Lab work recommended 5%

• Maneuver initiation point range as small as possible

TargetMetricValues

15

0.010.01

0.020.02

0.020.02

0.020.020.02

0.030.03

0.030.03

0.030.030.03

0.040.04

0.040.04

0.040.040.04

0.050.05

0.050.05

0.050.050.05

0.060.06

0.060.060.060.060.06

0.070.070.070.07

0.070.070.07

0.080.08

0.080.080.080.080.08

0.090.090.090.090.09

0.10.10.10.10.110.110.11

0.12

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Modified Tau Threshold (sec)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

HM

D T

hres

hold

(ft)

Unmitigated Conditional Collision Risk

UnmitigatedCollisionRiskP(NMAC|LoWC)

16

P=2%

P=5%


17


18

IntruderOwnship

TurnRate(deg/sec)

τ234

• 2PAIRS• Head-on, co-altitude encounter• Only horizontal maneuver is considered• Constant roll rate, steady-state turn rate, ownship speed, and intruder speed• 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 = 𝑓 𝐷𝑊𝐶, 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑑, 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑑• UAS (Ownship) speed 40 to 100 kts• Turn rate 6 deg/s (3 and 12 deg/s results also looked at)

“SweetSpot”

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P=5%

Blow-up

P=5%

• “Sweetspot”HMD*2000to2500ft,modTau 0to15sec– P(NMAC|LoWC)~ 5%– Maneuverinitiationrange~2nmi (given6deg/sturnrate)– ComparedtolowC-SWaP radarrangethatmaybebelow3nmi

• Tofurtherreducerangerequirements,wemay– Goabove5%forP(NMAC|LoWC)– Requireahigherturnrateat40kts (e.g.,12deg/s)– Increaseminimumownship speedfrom40kts– Mandateaminimumturnspeed>40kts forownship

• Otherconsiderations– Rangeandbearingdistributiontrade-off

Summary

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• ACESencounteranalysis– Applyadditionalfilters– Analyzeadditionalperformancemetrics– AnalyzeresultsfromotherDWCtypes– AnalyzeresultsfromPhase1UAS(speedandaltitude)

• Encountermodel– ParallelworktoACESanalysis– ComparisontoACESresultsforvalidation

• CandidateDWCdefinitionsforfurtherevaluations– Mayproposemorethanone(possiblytwo)definitionsvaryingbyP

values• Fasttimesimulation2foralertingandsensor(May2018)• HITLforlowC-SWaP (Nov.2018)

NextSteps

21

BackupSlides

22

EncounterModel

23

• Assumptions– Phase 1 VFR traffic

– Same encounter set used to define SARP WCV definition• Enables comparison with previous results

– Encounters are between two aircraft, where one or both aircraft do not have transponders, or both are VFR (1200 code)

– Looking at full encounter set (<300 kts) and subset of encounters with speeds < 100 kts

UncorrelatedEncounterModel

24

Resultsarepreliminary.Noconclusionsshouldbedrawnfromtheresultsuntiltheycanbefurtheranalyzedandunderstood.

• DWC3– P(NMAC|LoWC) vs. R* using ACES– P(NMAC|LoWC) vs. R* using the encounter models

PreliminaryComparisonResults

25

Thresholdfortauis5secforencountermodel

results

CollisionRisk:0.02~0.05

• Criteria– Mannedaircraftspeed:atorbelow170kts– UASspeed:between30and100kts– Altitude- atorbelow10,000ft meansealevel(MSL)– Altitude– atorabove500ft MSL

• Additionalfilterstobeimplemented– Airspaceclass– Altitude- above500ft abovegroundlevel(AGL)

ACESEncounterFilters

26

• Can Phase 1 UAS have an alternative DWC for non-cooperative aircraft? Can a single DWC be defined for both Phase 1 UAS and low C-SWaP UAS (for non-cooperative aircraft)?

AdditionalConsiderations

31

• Well clear trade study (Fast Time 1)– Preliminary Results briefing: December 5, 2017 at SC-228 F2F– Final results briefing: February 20, 2017

• Alerting and surveillance uncertainty (Fast Time 2) – Planning starts in December 2017– Data collection May 2018– Final results September 2018

• HITL – Planning starts in April 2018– Data collection October 2018– Final results February 2019

• Closed loop (Fast Time 3)– Planning January 2019– Data collection June 2019– Final results November 2019

SelectSimulationSchedule

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VFRTraffic• 21daysacross4seasonsin2012(24hourseachday)

• MannedIFRdata:ASDI(AirspaceSituationDisplaytoIndustry)• MannedVFRdata:84th RadarEvaluationSquadron(RADES)AirDefenseRadarData– Bothcooperativeandnon-cooperativeVFRtrafficthatsatisfyspeedrange

(<170kts)andtargetairspace(<10,000ft andnon-terminaloperations)willbeused

33

January 2012 Su M Tu W Th F Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

April 2012 Su M Tu W Th F Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

July 2012 Su M Tu W Th F Sa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

October 2012 Su M Tu W Th F Sa

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

UASMissions

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Number MissionTypes Airspace UASGroup CruiseAltitude CruiseSpeed(KTAS) FlightPattern

1 AerialImagingandMapping

Flightsdepartfromandreturntoaregional

airportlocatedwithin40nmi.ofOEP35

airports;ClassD,E,andG(includingModeC

Veil)withClassBorCtransition

AerosondeMk4.7 3000ft.AGL 44to51Radiator-gridpatternor

circularpattern

2 AirQualtiyMonitoring





Shadow-B

(RQ7B)/NASASierra

4k,5k,and6kft

AGL74to89 Radiator-gridpattern

3 AirbornePathogenTracking





Shadow-B

(RQ7B)/NASASierra

3,000ft.,5,000ft.

and10,000ft.AGL72to97 Radiator-gridpattern

4 FloodInund.Mapping



airports;ClassD,ModeCVeil,E,andG

AerosondeMk4.7 4,000ft.AGL 46to51 Gridpattern

5 FloodStreamFlow




AerosondeMk4.7 4,000ft.AGL 46to51Gridpatternand/or

alongstreamdirection

6 LawEnforcement





AerosondeMk4.7 3,000ft.AGL 44to51

Threetypesofpattern:

1)gridpattern,2)

random,3)outward

spirial

7 PointSourceEmission




Shadow-B 3,000ft.AGL 72to80Gridpatternand/or

alongstreamdirection

8 SpillMonitoring




Shadow-B/Sierra3,000ft.to13,000

ft.AGL72to93

Upanddown-wind

flightsinaradiator-grid

pattern,Round-the-

clock

9 TacticalFireMonitoring





ScanEagle/Shadow-B 3,000ft.AGL 72to75

Circularflightpath

followingtheperimeter

ofawildfire

10 TrafficMonitoring





Shadow-B 1,500ft.AGL 58to84Geo-spatialmonitoring

flightpath

11 WildlifeMonitoring




AerosondeMk4.7 3,000ft.AGL 44to51 Radiator-gridpattern

12 NewsGathering





AerosondeMk4.71,500ft.to3,000

ft.AGL44to51

Random-path:e.g.,

police-chase;Circular

orbit:

VFRIntruderTraffic

• Itisassumedthatunmannedaircraftwillbeequippedwithonboardradar,activesurveillancetransponder(ModeC/S),andADS-Bsurveillancesystemtodetectcooperativeandnon-cooperativeintruderaircraft.

• Typesofintruderswithdifferentequipage– IntrudersoperatingunderIFR(Coopeative)– IntrudersoperatingunderVFR(CooperativeandNon-cooperative)

35

IntruderAircraft Transponder Equipage Percentage

Cooperative AC 1 ADS-B Out(1090orUAT) 71%*CooperativeAC2 Mode C transponderOnly 14%*Non-CoopAC NoTransponder(orModeA

transponder)15%*

*BasedonOSEDdocument:TableA-1.IntruderEquipageAssumptionsPost-2020

SimulationPlatform

• VariousrealisticencountersbetweenUASandIFR/VFRmannedtrafficincivilairspace– MannedIFRtraffic:ASDI(AirspaceSituationDisplaytoIndustry)data– Historicalcooperativeandnon-cooperativeVFRtraffic

• The84thRaderEvaluationSquadron(RADES)data– ProposedUASFlights

• 12differenttypesofUASmissionsgeneratedbyIntelligentAutomationInc.

• UASDAAAlertingandGuidanceSystem[JADEM]– Higherfidelitysurveillancemodel:Honeywellsensormodels– DAIDALUSDAAalertingandguidancealgorithm

36

• Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) and JADEM Fast-time Simulation Framework– Simulate NAS-wide air

traffic operations of UAS, IFR, and VFR traffic

CooperativeTraffic

37

low c-swapwell clear trade study preliminary results · •investigate trade space for detect and...

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