low carbon city planning in a medium sized low density city · 2014-11-10 · towards low carbon...
TRANSCRIPT
Towards Low Carbon City Planning in a Medium Sized Low Density City
Simon Benger1,21. School of the Environment, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia
2. Principal, Envirospatial Consulting, Adelaide
Metropolitan Adelaide
Background – Adelaide, South Australia
Adelaide Urban Emissions
Adelaide
Population 1,225,235
Area 3,259 km2 *
Population Density 376 persons/km2
Emissions per Household (direct) 14,450 kgCO2/yr
Emissions per Household (indirect) 13,193 kgCO2/yr
Total Household Emissions 27,643 kgCO2/yr
Motor Vehicles 755,678
Public Transport Use ~5%
* ABS 2011 Classification of Adelaide Metro Area
Why is a Low Carbon Future Important for Adelaide?
Strong Climate‐related influences on the city
‐ Heatwaves are common, very hot summers – getting hotter
‐ Strong Urban Heat Island effects, 6‐8 degrees celsius over a few km.
‐ These cause a number of problems:
‐ Heat related Illness ‐ High levels of hospital admissions,Particularly with the elderly.
‐ Heatwaves cause failure of public transport infrastructure, forcing more cars onto the roads
‐ Bushfires threats are extreme under some conditions, due to geographicalnature of the outer urban areas
‐ Water security issues, especially for irrigated agriculture
Urban Heat Island Modelling
DSM
Airborne Thermal Image
Model Data
2011 Australian Census data by SA1 classification (ABS)
‐ 3018 zones in Adelaide metropolitan area
‐ Range of Demographic Variables extractede.g. Income, Mortgage repayments, Rent, Dwelling types, Household type, Persons per household, Motor vehicles, Rooms per dwelling, Age structure
‐ Household Expenditure Survey 2009‐2010
CSIRO Emissions Intensity Tables
Real estate ‐ Property Values by suburb 2011/2012
TransportRail Lines, Roads, Rail and Tram Stations Distance Surfaces, Network Analysis
PV SolarPV capacity, PV installations 2011
Planning Data (DTEI)Landuse, Zoning, Development Proposals, Journey to Work Data (2006)
Emissions and Landuse Change Modelling for Adelaide
Calculating Household Emissions
(after Shigato et al. 2012, with A$ values substituted for yen andadjusted for inflation.)
The six household types used for Adelaide were: 1. One person household, 2. Couple no children, 3. Couple with children, 4. One parent family, 5. Group household, and, 6. Other family type
Adelaide Household Emissions Characteristics
‐ Total Household Emissions 27,643 kgCO2/yr‐ Emissions per Household (direct) 14,450 kgCO2/yr‐ Emissions per Household (indirect) 13,193 kgCO2/yr
‐ High reliance on private car transport: average 1.58 cars/household, resulting in 10,850 kgCO2/yr (5034 kgCO2/yr direct + 5816 kgCO2/yr indirect)
‐ Long Commutes due to low urban densities: average 14,100 km/yr
‐ Large houses which are energy intensive: average 6570 kWhr/yr and for South Australia emissions are 0.79 kgCO2/kWhr, or 5190 kgCO2/yr
‐ Occurs despite clean/renewable electricity production
‐ Household Food Waste an issue: 15.4 MtCO2eq/yr, or 700 kgCO2/pers, as waste disposal is 100% landfill
Exploratory AnalysisCorrelated with Emissions per Household R2 PearsonsHousehold Size 0.78 0.88Rent 0.22 0.47Property Value 0.00 0.03Distance_CC 0.02 0.14Income 0.44 0.66Motor Vehicles 0.66 0.81Mortgage 0.26 0.51Rooms per Household 0.02 ‐0.14
Relationship between Rents and Distance to City Centre
Distance to City (m)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000
Aver
age
rent
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Unlike most cities, property values and rents in Adelaide are not strongly correlated with distance to city centre or public transport accessibility
Emissions Reductions for Adelaide Must Focus on Motor Vehicle Use
Journey to Work Analysis‐ Uses Origin‐Destination data from the 2006 census (2011 only recently available)‐ Point Distance Analysis on geographical unit centroids
Total Daily km‐ Adelaide metropolitan commuters travel 4,678,070 km each working day by car‐ Car use generates over 1,047 tonnesC02eq/day, or ~382,000 tonnesCO2eq/yr @ 224g/km‐Most outer metro areas average more than 2 MV per household
Journey to Work OriginsJourney to Work trip km originate primarily from higher population density outer suburbanregions
‐ 671,500 daily JTW trips by motor vehicle by 466,063 households (63 % of total JTW trips)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Train
Bus
Ferry
Tram Taxi
Car, as driv
er
Car, as passenger
Truck
Motorbike/scooter
Bicycle
Other
Multip
le m
etho
ds
Walked on
ly
Worked at hom
e
Did no
t go to work
Not stated
Num
ber o
f Trip
s
Journey to Work OriginsJourney to Work trip km originate primarily from higher population density outer suburbanregions
Many high km originsAre well serviced by Train lines
‐ Transport choice issue‐ Requires behavioural
change
Journey to Work OriginsJourney to Work trip km originate primarily from higher population density outer suburbanregions
Many high km originsAre well serviced by Train lines
‐ Transport choice issue‐ Requires behavioural
changeNew SouthernTrain LineRecently Completed
Obahn (dedicated Busway)Adelaide’s most heavily usedPublic transport route
Options‐ Increase fuel costs‐ Increase car parking costs‐ Make PT more attractive‐ Substitute low emission
vehicles
Substitute vehicle type – for Australia EVs produce 164 gCO2eq/km as opposed 224 gCO2eq/km for standard motor vehicles
Substitution of Electric Vehicles (EV)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Daily Emission
s from M
otor Veh
icles (kgCO
2eq)
Distance from City Centre (m)
100% EV substitution
50% EV substitution
Total MV Emissions by SLA
Potential reductions of 27% (100% EV substitution) from JTW vehicle use or13% (50% EV substitution).‐ further modelling required to incorporate household income and spatial effects
HousingAustralian Houses are large by world standards and getting larger in most States, howeverAdelaide suffers from land availability issues.
The biggest homes in Australia (houses and other dwellings) can be found in Western Australia (229.4m2), followed by Northern Territory (228.7m2), Victoria (219.2m2), NSW (218.6m2), Queensland (214.0m2), South Australia (177.5m2), Tasmania (174.3m2), and the ACT (164.6m2).
‐ Most people live in detacheddwellings/houses‐ Has big implications for householdEnergy use. In Adelaide 75% of all housing has air‐conditioning
(ABS, 2011)
Electricity Demand has been dropping for the past 6 years in Australia.
Reasons: Move to more energy efficient appliancesAround 15% of Australian households are now solar electricity generators through domestic PV.
Changes in Household Energy Use
PV initially heavily subsidisedthrough State and FederalGovernment programs
‐ Now very inexpensive
Domestic PV subsidies are being phased out, but installations are still growingSteadily. 2‐3 year payback for most households.
Potential Domestic Photovoltaic (PV) Electricity Production
Future Modelling will incorporate Actual and potential PV capacity and effects on emissions
Landuse Change
Adelaide Metropolitan Area stillcontains large areas of non‐residential land
Reasons: ‐ Topographic‐ Conservation‐ Zoning regulations
Landuse Carbon Modelling – Using InVEST
Model Effects of Policies and Changed Mix of Landuse Types on Carbon Sequestration through time
Stored Carbon in a Mature Landscape by 2050
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68
Baseline
Sub 50% of agric land for Eucalypt
Sub 50% of agric land for Pine
Sub 50% of grazing land for Eucalypt
Sub 50% of grazing land for pIne
Sub 50% of grazing and 50% agric land for pIne
100% Loss of Hort to Eucalypt
30 Year Urban Growth Plan
Direct Action Plan
Megatonnes of Stored Carbon in Landscape
Next Steps
• Working with NIES, Urban Growth Models will be used to simulate the effects of future urban planning and policy decisions on urban growth and CO2 emissions.
‐ future carbon trajectories
• Incorporate and model effects of new policy directions by Federal Government(climate change ambivalence). Direct Action Plan passed the Senate yesterday.
Conclusion• Adelaide fairly typical of Australian cities in terms of emissions characteristics
• Significant differences exist between the spatial structure and emissions patterns of Adelaide and typical cities in developed countries.
• Most important factor is car ownership and use – must be addressed by governments