low carbon development - isap.iges.or.jplow carbon development strategies to materialize double...

ISAP201224-25 July 2012, Yokohama,

A Low Carbon

24 25 July 2012, Yokohama,

A Low Carbon Development of Asia and MRV MRV

Rae Kwon Chung ([email protected]) Director Environment and Development DivisionDirector, Environment and Development DivisionESCAP

Low Carbon Development Many misperceptions to be cleared.

Sacrificing economic growth/poverty for climate change? No, Harnessing climate action to drive economic growth necessary to reduce poverty necessary to reduce poverty

Why only for DCs? No, LC is for all countries

Just a matter of money and technology?

No, Money & Technology necessary but , y gy ynot sufficient. Enabling policy framework is more critical. Carbon Pricing Regulation Political leadership Pricing, Regulation, Political leadership,

Mainstreaming climate action into the national development planning process.national development planning process.

Low Carbon Development Strategies Low Carbon Development Strategies

To materialize Double Dividend (DD) : reducing Climate impact while stimulating g p gGrowth

To turn climate crisis into economic growth To turn climate crisis into economic growth opportunities To improve energy water and food security To improve energy, water and food security, resilience and support MDGs

Australia

400

450

800000

900000

CO2 [Million tons]

GDP[Million 2005 US

dollars]

GDP_AUS

CO2GDP per GDP per

300

350

400

600000

700000

800000

2445000

CO2 emissionsper

capita(tons)

capita(US 2005 dollars)

capita AUS

CO2 per capita AUS

200

250

300

400000

500000

600000

20

22

30000

35000

40000AUS

150

200

300000

400000

18

20

20000

25000

30000

50

100

100000

200000

14

16

10000

15000

00

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Year 10

12

0

5000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

199

199

199

199

199

200

200

200

200

200

20

ESCAP Statistic DB(http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/statdb/DataExplorer.aspx#C2CRYJ4gAABYAJBwAYADYAagBrAHMAeA==)

JapanJapanCO2 [Milli

GDP[Millio2005 US

CO2 emissions

GDP per capita

1250

1300

4000000

4500000

5000000 [Million tons]

n 2005 US dollars

9 8

1040000

emissionsper

capita(tons)

p(US 2005 dollars)

1150

1200

3000000

3500000

4000000

9.4

9.6

9.8

30000

35000

1100

1150

2000000

2500000

8 8

9

9.2

20000

25000

1000

1050

500000

1000000

1500000

GDP JP8.4

8.6

8.8

10000

15000

GDP per capita JPN

9500

500000 GDP_JPN

8

8.2

0

5000

990

992

994

996

998

000

002

004

006

008

010

CO2 per capita JPN

19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20


DenmarkDenmarkCO2

GDP [Million

GDP_DN CO2 i i

GDP per capita

70

80

350000

400000CO2 [million tons]

[Million current dollars]

K

12

14

60000

70000

emissionsper

capita(tons)

capita (current dollars)

50

60

250000

30000010

12

50000

60000

GDP

30

40

50

150000

200000

250000

6

8

30000

40000GDP per capita

20

30

100000

150000

2

4

10000

20000

0

10

0

50000

0

2

0

10000

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: World Bank DB(http://data.worldbank.org/)

Germany CO2 [million GDP [Million current

GDP_GER

1450000

CO2 emissionsper

GDP per capita(current Germany

1000

1200

3500000

4000000CO [ otons]

current dollars]

1240000

45000

per capita(tons)dollars)

8002500000

3000000

8

10

30000

35000

600

1500000

20000006

20000

25000 GDP per capita

200

400

500000

1000000

2

4

5000

10000

15000

00

500000

19911993199519971999200120032005200700

5000


United KingdomUnited KingdomCO2

emissionsGDP per capitaCO2 [millionGDP

12

45000

50000per

capita(tons)

capita(current dollars)6003000000

CO2 [million tons][Millions

current dollars]

8

10

35000

40000

560

580

2000000

2500000

625000

30000

5401500000

4

10000

15000

20000

GDP per

5201000000

0

2

0

5000

10000capita

480

500

0

500000

199119931995199719992001200320052007

GDP_UK

199119931995199719992001200320052007


United States

CO2 [millionGDP

[Millions20.560000

CO2 emissionsper

capita(tons)

GDP per capita(current dollars)

5600

5800

14000000

16000000

CO2 [million tons]

[Millions current dollars]

19 5

2050000

5400

5600

12000000

14000000

19

19.5

40000

5000

5200

8000000

10000000

18

18.530000

4800

5000

4000000

6000000

17.5

10000

20000

GDP per

4400

4600

0

2000000 GDP_USA

16.5

17

0

10000

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

GDP per capita

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

991

992

993

994

995

996

997

998

999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


ChinaChina

CO2GDP[Milli

7000

8000

3500000

4000000CO2 [Million tons]

GDP[Million 2005 US dollars 63500

CO2 emissions per

capita(tons)

GDP per capita(US 2005 dollars)

GDP per

5000

6000

2500000

3000000

4

5

2500

3000p

capita CHN

3000

4000

1500000

20000003

1500

2000

1000

2000

500000

1000000

GDP CH 1

2

500

1000

0

1000

0

500000 GDP_CHN

00

500

Year


IndiaIndiaCO2GDP[Millio CO2GDP

1600

1800

1200000

1400000CO2 [Million tons]

GDP[Million 2005 US dollars

200

CO2 emissions per

capita(tons)

GDP per capita(US 2005 dollars)

1200

14001000000

1

1.2

1.4

1000

1200)

800

1000

600000

800000

0 6

0.8

1

600

800

400

600

200000

400000

0 2

0.4

0.6

200

400 GDP per capita IND

0

200

0

200000GDP_IND 0

0.2

01990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

IND


IndonesiaIndonesia400400000

CO2 [Million

GDP[Million 2005 US

CO2 emissions per

GDP per capita

350350000

tons]US dollars

1.6

1.8

1600

1800

per capita(tons

)

capita(US 2005 dollars)

250

300

250000

300000

1.2

1.4

1200

1400

150

200

150000

200000

0.8

1

800

1000

50

100

50000

100000

GDP ID0.4

0.6

400

600

GDP per capita

00

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

G _N

0

0.2

0

200GDP per capita IDN


Republic of KoreaRepublic of KoreaCO2 GDP[Millio

CO2 emissoins

GDP per capita(US

500

600

1000000

1200000 [Million tons]

n 2005 US dollars

10

1225000emissoins per

capita(tons)

2005 dollars)

400800000 8

10

15000

20000

GDP

200

300

400000

600000 GDP_KOR

CO2_KOR6

10000

15000 GDP per capit…

100

200

200000

400000

2

4

5000

00 00


LC is it feasible? LC, is it feasible? Decoupling of Growth and CO2 emission, p g , Absolute Decoupling vs Relative Decoupling

Relative decoupling happened only above Relative decoupling happened only above or around 30,000 USD per capita

Can LC really drive Economic Growth? Double Dividend feasible? Do we have a tool/policy option for

decoupling and double dividend? decoupling and double dividend? YES, ETR can generate DD/Decoupling

Low carbon development strategy Low-carbon development strategy A forward-looking national development A forward looking national development

strategy for oil & climate crisis Enables countries to align climate and Enables countries to align climate and

development priorities in the planning process. Man de eloping co ntries in the Asia Pacific Many developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region have prepared or are preparing such strategiesstrategies.Example: Republic of Korea, China, J I d i M ldi tJapan, Indonesia, Maldives etc.

In fact many AP countries are already taking actions

Components of a Low-carbon strategyp gy

Vi i P li Vision Assessments ‒ GHG inventories and

Policy measures Specific programs and projectsinventories and

projections, vulnerability

projects Implementing plansF di h ivulnerability

assessments etc. Short- to long-term

Funding mechanisms Investment plansg

targets and goals (economy-wide or

ifi )

Institutional capacity and coordinating

h isector-specific) mechanisms Monitoring and e l tion pl nevaluation plans

Institutional ArrangementsInstitutional ArrangementsLow carbon development strategies will require Low carbon development strategies will require engagement across ministries and sectors, backed by political commitment at the highest level.p g Planning, finance, environment, industry, trade, agriculture, forestry, transport and construction ministries etcministries etc.

Examples from the region:

Presidential Committee on Green Growth of the Republic of Presidential Committee on Green Growth of the Republic of Korea

Bappanas, the planning ministry of Indonesiapp , p g y

National Development and Reform Commission of China

Green Technology Council and a Cabinet Committee on Green Technology chaired by the Prime Minister in Malaysia

Nationally Appropriate Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) ( )

NAMAs are voluntary mitigation actions that developing country governments propose through the UNFCCC country governments propose through the UNFCCC secretariat.

Allows DCs to be recognized for their mitigation actions Allows DCs to be recognized for their mitigation actions based on their country context.

Offers opportunities for attracting finance and pp gtechnology transfer.

Low-carbon development strategies can provide the p g pbasis for planning, developing ad implementing NAMAs.

Many countries of this region have submitted their NAMAs to the UNFCCC.

Measurement, reporting dand verification (MRV)

A system for measurement, reporting and verification needs to be introduced to monitor emissions and reductions promote transparency of financial flows and promote transparency of financial flows and the deployment of technological support that are provided to a specific NAMA. p p

Needs to be supported by national greenhouse inventory greenhouse inventory.

G h G I i Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Establishment of a GHG inventory is an essential component of mitigation action of any country. Collect and analyze data to keep track of progress of mitigation actions.

Understanding emissions and emission gremoval trends.

Basis for target and goal setting for GHG g g greductions.

Central tool to support the MRV process for pp pNAMAs.

C f KCase of Korea

June 2010 established GIR(Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea) - build inventory, target management, modeling for decoupling,modeling for decoupling,

VA Target Management System ETS 2015I t /MRV i b t ti l Inventory/MRV requires substantial capacity/institution building

Setting Targets Goals and targets are instrumental for

aligning sector specific and climate change aligning sector-specific and climate change policies and decreasing uncertainty for b i d i i t tbusiness and encouraging investments.

Many countries have already set targets: China: 40-45 per cent reduction in emission intensity 2005 levels by 2020.

Indonesia: Voluntary target of emissions reduction by 26 Indonesia: Voluntary target of emissions reduction by 26 per cent by 2020 ( up to 41 per cent),

Maldives: Carbon neutral by 2020. RoK: 30 per cent carbon emissions reduction by 30 per cent from BAU by 2020.

Developing Low-Carbon Infrastructure

One of the main determinants of carbon intensity

of economic growth patterns.

Focus on less carbon intensive infrastructure: on low-carbon cities, green buildings, shift from road to rail, solid waste management and design of energy efficient

t systems.

In addition, technological innovation and the introduction of better technology and next generation introduction of better technology and next generation tech. to reduce the carbon intensity of growth.

For example: renewable energy and decentralized For example: renewable energy and decentralized systems; smart grids; CCS; and hydrogen and fuel cells. Republic of Korea: Jeju Island Smart Grid Test bed p j Indonesia’s renewable energy policy India’s Solar Mission

Carbon Pricing Carbon Pricing

Key tool for stimulating technology innovation and Key tool for stimulating technology innovation and reducing costs for the deployment of low-carbon technologies.g

Eco-Tax Reform: Revenue Neutrality/Double Dividend

Carbon tax and/or cap-and-trade scheme Carbon tax and/or cap and trade scheme

Many countries have acted on this already: Australia's carbon pricing scheme us a a s ca bo p c g sc e e China’s domestic emissions trading scheme (planned) Korea Emissions Trading Scheme 2015 Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s emissions trading scheme at the city level (energy related CO2).

Promoting Low-Carbon gLifestyles

Pricing policies, standards, incentives, education, communication campaigns and labeling to impact p g g ppeople’s behavior and decisions to promote sustainable consumption.

Financial incentives for engaging consumers and households:R K G di d RoK: Green credits cards

Japan: Eco-point programme (energy-efficient l t i l li d i t ll f i dlelectrical appliances and environmentally friendly housing).

ESCAP Roadmap: Factsheets and case studiescase studies Fact sheet: European Union’s emissionsFact sheet: Cap-and-trade scheme Carbon capture and storage C b i i

European Union s emissions trading system

India’s solar mission Indonesia’s renewable energy

Carbon pricing Low-carbon development plan Nationally appropriate

Indonesia s renewable energy policy

RoK’s Emissions Target Management Scheme

Nationally appropriate mitigation action

Smart grid Rok’s National Strategy on Green Growth and 5 Year Plan R K’ F k A t L

Case study: Australia’s carbon pricing scheme

RoK’s Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth

RoK’s investment plan for green growthscheme

Brazil’s National Plan on Climate Change and Law

China’s carbon trade

green growth RoK’s smart grid development UK carbon budget US’s hydrogen economy China s carbon trade

China’s mitigation targets US s hydrogen economy

low carbon development - isap.iges.or.jplow carbon development strategies to materialize double...

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