low carbon energy opportunities in sea richard de ferranti
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South East Asia low carbon energy opportunities
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Structure• 1. Energy use in the region – current and
projected • 2. Why energy approaches important for
inclusive green growth• 3. Current regional policies - how green? • 4. Future directions for regional energy policies –
opportunities?
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1. ENERGY USE IN THE REGION – CURRENT AND PROJECTED
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ASEAN’s potential future demand for energy
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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ASEAN current energy fuel sources
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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ASEAN primary energy demand by source
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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ASEAN energy demand - by major economies
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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Region’s forecast energy investment to 2035
Source: ADB Energy Outlook for Asia-Pacific region
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2. WHY ENERGY APPROACHES ARE IMPORTANT FOR INCLUSIVE GREEN
GROWTH
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The case for greener growth
IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, 2013
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The case for greener energy
IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, 2013
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CO2 emissions and energy intensity, 2011 and 2035
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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ASEAN electricity capacity
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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ASEAN electricity generation from renewables
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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3. CURRENT REGIONAL POLICIES - HOW GREEN?
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Scope to do more on energy efficiency
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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Fuel subsidies are regressive
Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013
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Cooking fuels in Cambodia
Sources: UNDP, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves
Cooking fuels also critical
• Almost 3 billion, half of the world’s population depend on wood and charcoal to cook their daily meals
• 72% of those dependent on solid fuels are in Asia• 3.5 million people die each year from diseases
that could be prevented by using clean cookstoves and fuels
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4. FUTURE ENERGY POLI-CIES
– OPPORTUNITIES?
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Global renewable electricity production
Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2013, IEA
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Is renewable investment falling?
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Falling in dollar terms, as prices drop, but Asia grow-ing
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China – renewables share of total in-stalled capacity and investment
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Solar panel prices since 1977
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Levelised renewable technology costs
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Markets saw the upside in 2013
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US solar uptake soaring
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The transformational impact of renew-ables
• “We can see the growth in renewables being transformative against conventional expectation with renewables meeting the vast majority of future power demand growth, weighing on market clearing power prices in competitive power markets, appreciably slowing the rate of demand growth for natural gas from the power sector, and requiring significant investment in new renewables.”– Credit Suisse, December 2013
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Green growth
The Stern report noted the long-term costs of continuing down a BAU path are greaterthan the short-term costs of making more sustainable economic choices.
Economic growth and environmental sustainability are not merely compatible objectives:– their integration is essential for the future
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GGGI programs
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