lower rio grande valley 345 kv line€“the cross-valley 345 kv line enabled the ... rio bravo san...
TRANSCRIPT
Lower Rio Grande Valley
345 kV line
ERCOT Regional Planning Group
May 13, 2011
Prepared by AEPSC on behalf of ETT
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 2
South Texas Transmission
Infrastructure• Drivers for development
– Shrinking windows for maintenance/clearances
– Availability of generation during high demand
– Development of infrastructure along the border
• Staging the plan for South Texas– Completion of San Miguel to Laredo Lobo in 2010
– Linking Laredo to the Valley
– Maximizing delivery capability of existing system
– Closing the loop within load pockets
• South Texas Transmission Infrastructure Benefits – Enabling access to economic resources and renewable energy
– Laredo: Two is better than One
– Valley: Three is better than Two
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 3
Drivers for development
• Shrinking windows for maintenance and/or clearances– N-1-1 windows are practically limited to March and November
– Operational load forecast for February 4th did not anticipate the need for all generation in the Valley
– 345 kV line clearances to replace corroded components nearly displaced STEC 138 kV upgrades within the Valley
• Availability of generation during high demand– Only one plant is located on the east side of the Valley
– Recent information creates the need to plan for a plant outage
– Valley import level exceeded security limit an average of 6 days per year for the last four years resulting in high scarcity pricing
– Forward looking CRR pricing anticipates further congestion
• Development of infrastructure along the border – Within ten years infrastructure additions will be needed in Laredo
– Over 1 GW of wind has already connected in South Texas
– Over 1 GW of new wind is negotiating interconnection agreements
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 4
Staging the plan for South Texas
• Completion of San Miguel to Laredo Lobo– Relieved RMR in Laredo in 2010
– Reversed power flow into Valley from west improving voltage stability for Valley
• Linking Laredo to the Valley– The Cross-Valley 345 kV line enabled the two existing 345 kV
lines to share import into the Valley
– Similarly, the Laredo to Valley 345 kV line enables both load pockets to share import among three lines
– As a result, Voltage Stability limits are elevated well beyond thermal constraints
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 5
Proposed Laredo to Valley 345 kV Project
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 6
Power/Voltage Profile for Ajo to Rio Hondo 345 kV
line contingency and one unit unavailable
2210 2360 2520 2680 2840 2990 3150 3310 3470Valley Load
300 MW Increase 300 MW Increase
Proposed Plan
2015 P
eak L
oad
(25% Compensation)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 7
Linking Laredo to the Valley
Interface between
South Texas and
ERCOT
Interface between
East and West
sides of the Valley
Relief of localized
constraints with
new infrastructure
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 8
Staging the plan for South Texas
• Maximizing delivery capability of existing system– The existing Valley 345 kV lines are undersized
relative to the new third line
– High temperature composite core conductor can virtually double the rating of the existing lines
– Series Capacitors can be reconfigured to double the rating, at half compensation level
– Due to improved voltage stability and new SSCI issues, lower compensation is viable
– Lower compensation improves the thermal import limit by balancing power flow between existing lines
– Potentially, Lon Hill to Nelson Sharpe to Ajo to Rio Hondo 345 kV line may be rebuilt due to corrosion
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 9
Staging the plan for South Texas
• Closing the loop within load pockets
– Third line from Laredo to the Valley enables
localized loops to serve growth within load
pockets
• Lobo to Rio Bravo relieves voltage collapse on
south side of Laredo
• Del Sol to Frontera relieves contingency overloads
in McAllen
– Future loop within the Valley addresses
support of the eastern end
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 10
Loss of the Gateway to University / North Laredo double
circuit 138 kV line results in voltage collapse
Double Circuit 138 kV line contingency
Area of Voltage Collapse
Feed from Valley at Roma
Proposed 138 (345) kV line
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 11
LRGV West Side Constraint
Limiting Element: HEC
to SEd 138 kV line
G-1: 2682 MW (2016)
P-1: 2573 MW (2015)
Contingency:
NEd to Pharr /
WEd 138 kV line
Del Sol
Del Sol
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 12
Second Cross-Valley line links
East and West sides of the LRGV
2/15/11 DRAFT REV 1 3
DEL SOL
FRONTERA
NORTH
EDINBURG
LOBO
RIO BRAVO
Double Circuit
Double Circuit
Capable
SAN MIGUEL
RIO HONDO
Double Circuit
Capable
345 kV
138 kV
69 kV
New Station
Existing Station
New Line
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 13
South Texas Transmission
Infrastructure Benefits • Enabling access to economic resources and renewable
energy– Enables the transfer of power in and out of South Texas and
lowers marginal costs to consumers
– Improves access to low cost wind resources that contribute across peak load periods
– Creates infrastructure that allows ERCOT and CFE to share capacity during periods of scarcity
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 14
Improves access to low cost wind resources
that contribute across peak load periods
Rio Bravo
San Ygnacio
Randado
Zapata
Lopeno
Falcon SS
Roma SS
Wormser
Lobo
Gateway
University
Santo Nino
Sierra Vista
North Laredo
Wind Regions
Rio Bravo
San Ygnacio
Randado
Zapata
Lopeno
Falcon SS
Roma SS
Wormser
Lobo
Gateway
University
Santo Nino
Sierra Vista
North Laredo
Wind Regions
CFE
CFE
Enables Capacity
exchange between
ERCOT and CFE
during scarcity
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 15
South Texas Transmission
Infrastructure Benefits • Laredo: Two is better than One
– Load growth in Laredo is limited to 600 MW (2021) assuming availability of one of two combustion turbines
– Load growth in Laredo is limited to 500 MW (2013) assuming availability of neither of the two combustion turbines
– Extreme Summer peak demand can achieve 600 MW in 2018
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 16
Existing Transmission System
Load Serving Capability in Laredo
100%
97%96%
92%
88%
97%
94%
100%99%
96%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
Lon Hill to
Straton
Straton to
KRPG
Pearsall to
Palo Duro
Dilley to
Cotulla
Cotulla to
Encinal
138 kV Limiting Elements
% E
merg
en
cy R
ati
ng
Lobo to San Miguel + 1/2 MVEC (578 MW)
Lobo to San Miguel + Laredo #4 (600 MW)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 17
2011 Laredo Area Summer Peak Load
Forecast at Varying Probability Intervals
(G-1
)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 18
2011 Laredo Area Winter Peak Load
Forecast at Varying Probability Intervals
(P-1
)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 19
South Texas Transmission
Infrastructure Benefits
• Valley: Three is better than Two
– Opening clearance windows enables upgrades to
existing Valley 345 kV lines
• N-1-1: clearance on the Ajo to Rio Hondo and contingency of
the Lon Hill to North Edinburg
• Current 138 kV constraint of 300 MW doubles to 600 MW
with the third 345 kV line
– Combined effect of new line with upgrades to existing
lines doubles import capability
• Constraint: One Valley 345 kV line overloads the remaining
Valley 345 kV line
• Voltage stability limits are well in excess of thermal limitations
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 20
Opening clearance windows enables
upgrades to existing 345 kV lines to Valley
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
8%
9%
11%
12%
14%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Pro
bab
ility
of b
ein
g th
e A
nn
ual
Pea
k
Per
cen
tage
of A
nn
ual
Pea
k
Valley - Historical Peak Days and ProbabilitiesBased on Valley Load Data excluding PUB since 1996
Historical Maximum of Daily Peak as a Percentage of Annual Peak
Probability of being the Annual Peak
Increasing N-1-1 import
capability by 300 MW (10%)
doubles the window
available for clearances
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 21
Existing Transmission System
Load Serving Capability in the Valley
25232623
2688 2733
25882678
2488
23432271
2331 2370 2411
2251 2286 2316 2336
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
50% 33% 17% 0%
Compensation Levels
MW
Le
ve
l
North Ed to Lon Hill Out G-1
Rio Hondo to Ajo Out G-1
North Ed to Lon Hill Out P-1
Rio Hondo to Ajo Out P-1
Kenedy Wind Farm generation at 600MW
VC
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 22
Existing Transmission System
Load Serving Capability in the Valley
2601
26512691
2726
2316
23762416
2436
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
50% 33% 17% 0%
Compensation Levels
MW
Level
North Ed to Lon Hill Out G-1
North Ed to Lon Hill Out P-1
Kenedy Wind Farm generation at 100MW
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 23
(Source: http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/2010/nr-11-17-10#_Toc277772169).
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
50/50 Peak 2,362 2,426 2,501 2,573 2,656 2,723 2,791 2,847 2,900 2,944
70/30 Peak 2,391 2,455 2,531 2,604 2,688 2,756 2,824 2,881 2,934 2,979
90/10 Peak 2,431 2,497 2,575 2,648 2,734 2,803 2,872 2,930 2,984 3,030
99/1 Peak 2,488 2,555 2,634 2,710 2,797 2,868 2,939 2,998 3,054 3,100
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Su
mm
er
Peak D
em
an
d in
MW
Actual
Weather Normalized (50/50 Peak)
Mar 2011 Forecast (50/50 Peak)
70/30 Peak
90/10 Peak
99/1 Peak
*Valley includes PUB. PUB data obtained from a presentation for the ERCOT Regional Planning Group "Cross Valley RPG Report_05-01-11_Final.pdf"
90/10 Peak probability means
there is less than a 10% chance
the peak will be above this
value.
2011 Texas Valley* Area Summer Peak Load
Forecast at Varying Probability Intervals
(G-1
)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 24
(Source: http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/2010/nr-11-17-10#_Toc277772169).
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
50/50 Peak 2,350 2,426 2,497 2,569 2,626 2,684 2,740 2,793 2,833
70/30 Peak 2,450 2,529 2,603 2,679 2,738 2,799 2,857 2,912 2,954
90/10 Peak 2,595 2,679 2,757 2,837 2,900 2,964 3,026 3,085 3,129
99/1 Peak 2,795 2,885 2,969 3,056 3,123 3,193 3,259 3,322 3,370
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Win
ter
Peak D
em
an
d in
MW
Actual
Weather Normalized (50/50 Peak)
Mar 2011 Forecast (50/50 Peak)
70/30 Peak
90/10 Peak
99/1 Peak
*Valley includes PUB. PUB data obtained from a presentation for the ERCOT Regional Planning Group "Cross Valley RPG Report_05-01-11_Final.pdf"
90/10 Peak probability means
there is less than a 10% chance the
peak will be above this value.
2011 Texas Valley* Area Winter Peak Load
Forecast at Varying Probability Intervals
(G-1
)
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 25
Need for Critical Status
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
CCN Approval
(12 Months)
Environ. Assessment & Routing Study
Create
Study
Areas
Aerial Surveys
(18 Months)
PR
OJE
CT
AU
TH
OR
IZA
TIO
N
Create Routes
Open
Houses
Functional Scoping,
Project Development,
Contracts, Schedule
Routing StudyPlanning / Kick offF
ILE
CC
N
CCN Approval
Permits
ROW Negotiation & Purchase
(10 Months)
(6 Months)
Entry
Line Construction ( 20 months)
ROW Clearing &
Procurement
Engineering &
MA
RC
H 1
, 2016
Pro
ject
Targ
et
Co
mp
leti
on
Date
ROW Acquisition Construction
Condemnations
Road Construction (11 months)
Bound. Surveys & Plat Creation
Lobo - Del Sol - North Edinburg 345kV Transmission Line
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Expedited Schedule (May 10, 2011)
• Project team assembled and studies kicked off by end of May 2011.
• Major contractors identified and contracts expedited to begin work.
• Use of internet available aerial data and accept risk of low resolution and non-
current photography for routing studies.
• Expedited testimony for CCN application.
• Possible additional costs to expedite schedule.
• Require immediate ERCOT RPG endorsement and designation as “Critical
Classification” of project..
• PUCT to provides approval within 6 months after filing CCN.
• Right of entry obtained and survey begins before CCN is approved.
• Begin clearing and road construction in advance of all ROW secured.
• Multiple construction fronts with accelerated construction schedule with possible
increase in costs.
• Excellent construction conditions including good weather to yield no construction
interruptions.
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 26
Upgrading Existing 345 kV system
from 2000a rating to 4000a
2/15/11 DRAFT REV 1 1FRONTERA
NORTH
EDINBURG
LOBO
Double Circuit
Capable
SAN MIGUEL
Double Circuit
Capable
345 kV
138 kV
69 kV
Existing Station
Reconductor LH-NE
345 kV line w/LH
upgrades: $55M
Reconfigure NE 345 kV
SC w/NE upgrades: $20M
Reconfigure RH 345 kV
SC w/RH upgrades: $20M
Reconductor AJ-RH
345 kV line: $30M
138 kV PST @
Loyola: $5M
Reconductor LH-NS
345 kV line w/LH
upgrades: $15M
Reconductor NS-AJ
345 kV line: $20M
Additional SC at
Rio Bravo: $25M
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 27
2523 2593 2643
3133
3373
36513870
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Existing
System
Lobo to Valley
($410)
AJ-RH RC
($50M)
LH-NE RC
($75M)
NS-AJ RC
($20M)
LH-NS RC
($15M)
Cross-Valley
MW
Valley Load served by Stage with
300 MW of generation unavailable
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 28
Valley Load served by Stage with
600 MW of generation unavailable
2251 2312 2343
28533063
3451 3500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Existing
System
Lobo to Valley
($410)
AJ-RH RC
($50M)
LH-NE RC
($75M)
NS-AJ RC
($20M)
LH-NS RC
($15M)
Cross-Valley
MW
5/13/2011 Prepared by AEPSC 29
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Lobo to Valley
($410)
AJ-RH RC
($50M)
LH-NE RC
($75M)
NS-AJ RC
($20M)
LH-NS RC
($15M)
$/k
W
Combined effect of new line with upgrades
to existing lines doubles import capability
2021 (
G-1
)
2021 (
P-1
)
Incremental Import Capability relative to Cumulative Cost
MW 70 120 610 850 1128
$M 410 460 535 555 570
Year Capital Cost
2020 $/kW
ADV CC 1,070$
ADV CT 898$
Conv CC 1,039$
Conv CT 807$
Coal 3,380$
Nuclear 6,465$
Solar PV 3,249$
Wind 2,696$