lps mortgage monitor 2010

7/29/2019 Lps Mortgage Monitor 2010

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December 2010 Mortgage Performance PackageData as of November 30, 2010Released December 15, 2010

Outline / Agenda

Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates: Dashboard performance statistics and time-series analysis with

product comparisons.

Roll Rates: Including foreclosure sale and impact of moratorium

New Problem Loans and Borrower Cure Rates

Shadow inventory and extremely delinquent loan tracking

Foreclosure Starts / Sales and Aging: Volumes, with investor views and state level timelines..

Refinance Activity and Origination Analysis: CPRs, Production Volumes and First Payment Defaults

Lender Processing Services 2


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Mortgage Monitor: November 2010 Dashboard



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Delinquency and Foreclosure Rate TableRanked based on Non-Current %



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Delinquencies remain about 2.1 times historical average,foreclosure inventories are 7.7 times and rising.



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LPS Servicing Database 1stliens Non-Performing Loan Counts



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Delinquencies dropped across all product types as more loans move to foreclosure.



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Foreclosure inventories increased across all products as foreclosure starts remainelevated and foreclosure sales (outflow) declined.



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Increases in foreclosure inventories become more pronounced when viewed relative to2008 levels.



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Foreclosure to REO (or other involuntary liquidation) dropped again in November. New30 day delinquencies also declined.



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New problem loans declined in November despite upward seasonal propensity.



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Self-cures, or cures from 1-2 month status increased in November to a six monthhigh.



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More loans are starting to move into foreclosure in the six and 12 month delinquencyrange, however the extremely delinquent categories are still stagnating.



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A third of all loans that are in 90+ delinquency status have not made a payment in ayear.



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The volume of loans rolling to seriously delinquent statuses beyond 90 days still faroutnumbers foreclosure starts.



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Florida and Nevada no longer appear in the top MSAs for 90+ to Foreclosure rolls.



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GSE foreclosure starts continue to decline from the July peak.



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The average days past due of loans at foreclosure start has declined for the last threemonths. Foreclosure sale timing dropped sharply as a result of the moratorium.



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California, New York, Florida, Maryland and Massachusetts are among the nations

slowest to refer for foreclosure. Californias average days delinquent at foreclosure

start in November was over a year.



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Refinancing activity remains elevated, particularly for the GSE investor category.


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FHA share of origination for October 2010 was 20%, the lowest since April 2008.



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First payment defaults are down about 28% from January 2008 levels for loans with lessthan 660 credit score and over 50% for loans greater than 660.



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For FHA loans, overall first payment defaults are down 36%, but within specific creditscore bands, improvements are much more subdued.



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November Month-End Data: Conclusions

Delinquency rates are down across all products as more loans entered foreclosure andnew delinquencies declined.

Foreclosure inventory increases are being driven both by elevated levels of foreclosure

starts as well as a very limited amount of foreclosure sale activity.

Seasonal trends were reversed as both newly delinquent loan rates and self-cure rates

improved.

More six and 12 month delinquent loans are moving to foreclosure, but the extremely

delinquent category continues to grow.

Refinance activity continued to be strong in November, GSE prepayment rates are at the

highest levels in the last two years.

Origination activity remains close to 2010 highs with the government percentage declining.

Early payment defaults on new originations remains very low with improvements across all

credit score bands for non-FHA product. FHA improvements are more subdued or non-

existent within credit score bands.



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LPS Applied Analytics:Mortgage Monitor Disclosures

Includes product definition and extrapolationmethodology updates implemented with the

June month-end data



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Disclosure Page: Product Definitions as of June month-end Data

*Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area

increases.



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Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions

Total Active Count:All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency orforeclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count.

Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc):All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBAmethodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are

reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.

90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 daysdelinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.

Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remainin foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.

Foreclosure StartsAny active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves intoforeclosure inventory in the current month.

Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

Foreclosure Sale / New REO:Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-

sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation. REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all

properties on and off the market.

Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. thoseimproving.



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Disclosure Page: Product Shifts pre and post-June 2010 Report

The table below contains the counts using the definitions implemented with the

June 2010 and the change in count and percentage from those used prior.

Counts are based on May 2010 DataActive Loans (excludes post-sale and paid in

full)



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Disclosure Page: Product Shift Matrix, pre and post-June 2010 Report


Counts are based on May 2010 DataActive Loans (excludes post-sale and paid infull)


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Disclosure Page: Industry Extrapolations pre and post-June 2010 Report

Mortgage metrics reports produced prior to June 2010 used the following

extrapolation method when estimating full industry numbers: Active loans (non-REO) are extrapolated based on a 70% market-share assumption.

REO loans prior to March 2009 are extrapolated based on a 40% market-share assumption

REO loans from March 2009 on contain an additional adjustment for under-reporting by a specific

client.

Mortgage metrics reports produced from June 2010 on extrapolate based on

vintage and product. Product coverage is highlighted below. Loan counts and

extrapolation are based on May 2010 active loan counts (excludes post-sale and

paid in full):



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Performance Statistics Changes MBA DelinquencyBefore = Unextrapolated Values from prior to June 2010 Month-end data

After Unextrapolated = Actual values from servicing data reflecting removal of 2ndsAfter Extrapolated = Changes with June 2010 data; new products and extrapolations



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Performance Statistics Changes Foreclosure InventoryBefore = Unextrapolated Values from prior to June 2010 Month-end data

After Unextrapolated = Actual values from servicing data reflecting removal of 2ndsAfter Extrapolated = Changes with June 2010 data; new products and extrapolations



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Performance Statistics Changes: Foreclosure Starts



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Performance Statistics Changes: Database CountsNew Extrapolation and Product Definitions implemented with the June 2010 month-end

data.

lps mortgage monitor 2010

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