lrp - action network · 2018. 9. 26. · 12 5 67 28 4 67 12 76 7 73 9 54 20 favor oppose don't...

MedMen·

.111. FABRIZIO

LEE

The Politics of Cannabis Pollsters

Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners & Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates

Panelists

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) & Congressman David Joyce (R-OH)

Moderator

John Hudak, Brookings Institution

Presented by:

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LRP LAKERESEARCH PARTNERS

Strategy Precision Impact

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The Politics of Marijuana Legalization in 2018 Battleground Districts

Findings from a Statewide Survey of 800 Likely Voters in 2018 Battleground Congressional Districts

Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Corey Teter

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com

202.776.9066

http://www.lakeresearch.com/

2

Methodology - Survey

• Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone usingprofessional interviewers. The survey reached a total of 800 likely November 2018 General Electionvoters in battleground districts. The list of 60 districts was derived from the DCCC’s top-targetedcongressional districts. It was then split into two Tiers: the top 40 in Tier 1, and the remaining 20 inTier 2. The survey was conducted February 7th through February 12th, 2018.

• Telephone numbers for the survey were drawn using a file of registered voters. The sample wasstratified to reflect the expected turnout for the November 2018 General Election across the targeteddistricts. Data were weighted by gender, age, region, race, and party identification, and partyregistration. The margin of error for the total 800 sample is +/-3.5%. The margin of error for eachindividual Tier is +/- 4.9%.

• In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible sampling error; that is, theresults of a survey may differ from those that would be obtained if the entire population wereinterviewed. The size of the sampling error depends upon both the total number of respondents inthe survey and the percentage distribution of responses to a particular question. For example, if 50%of respondents in the total sample answered “yes” to a particular question, we can be 95% confidentthat the true percentage will fall within +/- 3.5 percentage points of this percentage or between 46.5%and 53.5%.

Key Findings: Support for Legalization & Legalization as aCatalyst for Turnout

• A majority (60%) of voters in swing districts supports legalizing the use of marijuana, including 45% who support it“strongly”. Just 36% oppose legalizing the use of marijuana, and only 28% oppose it “strongly.” Support forlegalization claims solid majorities across demographic and partisan subgroups in these districts, including 77% ofDemocrats and 73% of independents. While 34% of Republicans support legalization, 63% oppose it.

• Younger voters and Democrats are the strongest supporters of legalization. Support is also very strong withpotential swing voters including independent-leaning white non-college men and women.

• Support for medical marijuana is even stronger, with 79% of voters in swing districts in favor of permitting patientswith terminal or debilitating medical conditions to grow, possess, and consume marijuana if their doctorsrecommend it. Support is incredibly bipartisan: Democrats (87%), independents (83%), and Republicans (67%).

• The strongest pro-legalization message frame highlights how we need legalization to repair the financial and moraldamage of the failed war on drugs. In an engaged debate where this frame is pitted against a strong anti-marijuanaframe, the pro-legalization frame wins 62% to 26%. This includes 83% to 12% among Democrats, 59% to 34%among independents, and a 42% to 42% split among Republicans.

• When we assign these two frames to candidates with Republican or Democratic party labels, the pro-legalizationside is still victorious, though support declines by 9 points (53% to 27%).

• A solid plurality (44%) of voters in swing district says they would be more “more likely” to vote for a politicalcandidate if he or she supported legalizing the use of marijuana, including 26% who say they would be “much”more likely. This includes 64% of Democrats and 45% of independents .

• A solid majority (55%) of voters also says they would be “more likely” to vote if a pro-legalization voter-initiativewas on the ballot in their state, including 43% who say they would be “much” more likely. This includes 58% ofDemocrats and 54% of independents.

Key Findings: Messaging

• Several additional positive messages that communicate the benefits of legalization are effective atconsolidating our base of support and bringing swing constituencies into the fold. They include:

1. A pain-centered message that frames legalization as a way to improve the lives of thousandsof families who suffer from conditions like epilepsy, cancer and post-traumatic stress disorder.

2. The potential economic benefits of legalization through job creation in the growing cannabissector and the collection of tax revenue.

3. Contextualizing the use of marijuana as an issue of personal freedom of responsible adultsthat the government should not infringe upon.

4. How outdated marijuana laws have had a detrimental effect on the lives of millions of youngpeople, particularly in minority communities.

5. Highlighting the benefits of marijuana as a tool to combat opioid addiction

• Pro-legalization messages are significantly stronger than the best testing opposition messages.

The Political Context

6

27

32

60

58

8

6

32

32

*America's drug laws

The United States Congress

Unfavorable

Net NO/NHFavorability Ratings

Favorable

Voters in 2018 battleground races across the country express a powerful sense ofdispleasure towards the nation’s drug laws and Congress.

-33 12

9-26

Q4. Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and institutions. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable,somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person or institution, but do not know enough to have an opinion, orif you have never heard of them, just say so, and we will move on.*Asked of half the sample

Tier 1Fav/unfav

26/63

33/59

31/54

31/57

Tier 2Fav/unfav

Contours of Support for Marijuana Legalization

Six-in-ten voters in swing district support legalizing the use of marijuana, including 45%who support it “strongly.” Just 36% oppose legalizing the use of marijuana, with muchless intense opposition. Democrats and independents solidly support legalization.

8

60

36

4

77

21

3

73

24

4

34

63

345 28 58

12

56

20 2450

Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided

Initial Ballot:

Democrat IndependentTotal Republican

Q6: Now on a different topic, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

9

36

1517

4751

3542

3531

3742

3942

2629

1822

2462

64

3435

3839

3539

3440

60

82 82

50 43

62 54

61 64

60 54

58 54

72 67

80 74 73

35 34

63 60 59 60

62 57

63 55

Total

Men < 50Women < 50

Men 50+Women 50+

Non-college menNon-college women

College-menCollege-women

White non-college menWhite non-college women

Married menMarried womenUnmarried menMarried women

Democratic menDemocratic women

IndependentsRepublican men

Republican women

NortheastMidwest

SouthWest

Tier 1Tier 2

States with rec. or med. LawsStates w/o rec. or med. Laws

Initial Ballot Contours

Net

+24

Undec.YesNo

Support for legalization claims solid majorities across major demographic and partisan subgroups within these districts including men and women; younger and older voters; blue-collar and college educated voters; Democrats and independents; and voters living in districts in the Northeastern, Midwestern, Southern, and Western regions of the country.

+67+66+2-7

+28+12+26+32

+19+12+46+37

+29+24+21+21

+62+52+49-27-30

+27+17

+29+15

4

2136

3335

3424

3531

23442

34

35

Q6: Now on a different topic, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

+23+12

34

Nearly eight-in-ten voters favor permitting patients with terminal or debilitating medicalconditions to grow, possess, and consume marijuana if their doctors recommend it.Support is incredibly strong across partisan lines and verges on a core value.

10

79

174

87

112

83

125

67

28

4

67

12

76

7

73

9

54

20

Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know

Support for Medical Marijuana


Q7. And regardless of how you feel about the use of recreational marijuana, do you favor or oppose making it a constitutional right for patients with terminal or debilitating medical conditions to grow, possess, and consume marijuana if their doctors recommend it?

11

17

95

2324

1414

2118

1616

2122

127

139

122828

13171919

1718

1619

79

90 92

71 70

83 82

75 76

81 80

75 73

87 89

86 87

83 67 67

83 78 76 77

80 77

80 76

Total

Men < 50Women < 50

Men 50+Women 50+

Non-college menNon-college women

College-menCollege-women

White non-college menWhite non-college women

Married menMarried womenUnmarried menMarried women

Democratic menDemocratic women

IndependentsRepublican men

Republican women

NortheastMidwest

SouthWest

Tier 1Tier 2

States with rec. or med. LawsStates w/o rec. or med. Laws

Medical Marijuana Ballot Contours

Net

+62

Undec.FavorOppose

Robust support for medical marijuana spans age, educational, partisan, and regional divides, illustrating just how much this issue has become a value in voters’ consciousness.

+81+87+48+47

+68+68+54+58

+54+51+75+82

+70+61+57+58

+72+78+71+39+39

+63+59

+64+57

4

1346

3426

3504

3443

14535

35

35

+65+64

34

Q7. And regardless of how you feel about the use of recreational marijuana, do you favor or oppose making it a constitutional right for patients with terminal or debilitating medical conditions to grow, possess, and consume marijuana if their doctors recommend it?

Text of Engaged Debate Profiles

12

Candidate Profiles

FAILED WAR ON DRUGS Candidate A [A DEMOCRAT], thinks our nation’s marijuanalaws are outdated, ineffective, and too costly. He thinksit’s wrong that we waste billions every year arresting andlocking up and destroying the lives of tens of thousands ofpeople for marijuana violations, the vast majority ofwhom are low-level and non-violent individuals, anddisproportionally young people of color. And these lawsdon’t even make our communities safe since all they do iscreate an illegal market that is supplied by violent gangsand drug cartels. Candidate A knows regulating marijuanause will provide real public safety while putting an end tothe destruction of entire communities.

ECONOMIC FOCUSCandidate A [A DEMOCRAT], believes our outdated drug& marijuana laws are preventing America from takingadvantage of the next economic boom. He knows thelegal marijuana market is already a booming industry withthe potential to create hundreds of thousands of new jobsand generate billions of state and federal tax revenuesover the next decade – money that we can use to invest inreal priorities for America’s middle class, like improvingpublic schools, making health care more affordable foreveryone, repairing our crumbling roads and bridges, andallowing our police officers to focus on real criminalthreats while keeping our budget balanced.

OPPOSITION STATEMENTCandidate B [A REPUBLICAN], thinks that with marijuana use skyrocketing, legalizing marijuana sends the wrongmessage to our children. He knows studies show that marijuana is a gateway drug that leads to use of more dangerousdrugs, and that drug use has negative impacts on life expectancy, IQ scores, and employment. And Candidate B thinksmore marijuana use means more users who are driving while high, increasing traffic deaths and putting us all at risk. Hethinks the movement to legalize marijuana is just a back-door effort to legalize all drugs, at the expense of ourcommunities and families’ safety.

53

272045

22

Candidate A Candidate B Undecided

Failed War on Drugs (with party Labels)

54

32

1442 27


Economic Focus (with party Labels)

62

26

1247

21


Failed War on Drugs (w/o party Labels)

50

37

1237 30


Registered Independents (Lean R)

Though the pro-legalization candidate solidly wins all four engaged debate exercises, the strongestframe highlights how we need legalization to repair the financial and moral damage of the failed waron drugs and does not list the party labels of the two candidates. The second strongest profile is thesame message with each candidate identified as a Democrat and Republican.

Q:10/11/12/13: Now I am going to read you some descriptions about two hypothetical candidates that might run for elected office in the November 2018 General ElectionEach asked of 1/4th of the sample.

Economic Focus (w/o party Labels)

13

+26 +36

+22 +13

After messages for and against legalization, support moves up slightly with 62% of voters supportinglegalization including 50% who support it strongly. Support holds strong among independents andticks up modestly among Democrats. Republicans remain consistent in their initial views.

14

62

35

2

81

172

73

26

1

37

62

150 28

64

10

5820 29

54

Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know

Final Ballot:


Q16: Sometimes over the course of a survey like this, people change their minds. do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

6036

4

77

213

73

244

3463

345 28 5812

5620 24

50

Yes No Don'tknow

Yes No Don'tknow

Yes No Don'tknow

Yes No Don'tknow

DemocratTotal Ind. GOP

Initial Ballot

Message and Positioning

16

67

51

55

51

43

56

43

56

75

67

66

60

66

48

41

41

40

36

Saves lives w/PTSD

Personal freedom

Tax revenue

Stop the war on drugs w/race

Opioid reduction

Positive Message Ratings(Message text on next slide)

Total Convincing Very Convincing

48 34

Democrat % Very

Convincing

Ind% Very

Convincing

Republican % Very

Convincing

28

23

16

23

19

Q14. I am now going to read you some statements people have made about legalizing marijuana. Please tell me whether eachstatement, assuming it is true, is a VERY convincing, SOMEWHAT convincing, NOT TOO convincing, or NOT AT ALL convincing reasonto support legalizing marijuana. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, just say so.

Other effective pro-legalization messages include highlighting marijuana’s potential to help individuals suffering from conditions like epilepsy, cancer PTSD;

the potential economic benefits of legalization through job creation in the growing cannabis sector and increasing tax revenue;

contextualizing the use of marijuana as an issue of personal freedom of responsible adults that should not be infringed upon;

and how outdated marijuana laws have had a detrimental effect on the lives of millions of young people, particularly in minority communities.

A message that highlighting marijuana’s potential combat opioid addiction is quite effective with base and swing voters.

17

Text of Positive Messages (in order of % Very Convincing)

[SAVES LIVES w/PTSD] There are thousands of families across America who would have their lives improved withincreased access to the use marijuana. Whether its cancer patients who need marijuana to manage the pain ofchemotherapy, children who suffer from epilepsy, or combat veterans struggling with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder,legalizing marijuana use would offer Americans in need an additional option to improve their lives.

[PERSONAL FREEDOM] One of our most important vales as a nation is that of having respect for an individual’s privacyand personal liberties, and legalizing marijuana is about respecting personal freedom. There's no reason to arrestadults who use marijuana responsibly in the privacy of their own homes while causing no harm to anyone else.Legalizing marijuana keeps the government out of our lives and personal decisions.

[TAX REVENUE] Legalizing marijuana would be good for our budget. States like Colorado and Washington which havelegalized Marijuana use have already generated tens of millions in revenue to fund important priorities like healthcareand schools. And It’s estimated that by the year 2020, tax revenues generated from the Marijuana industry will growto $2.3 billion nationwide. And that’s in addition to the money saved by not arresting people for marijuana.

[STOP THE WAR ON DRUGS w/RACE] America’s marijuana laws have permanently damaged the lives of thousands ofyoung people. And even though Marijuana use is roughly equal among Blacks and Whites, yet Blacks are more thanfour times as likely to be arrested for marijuana possession. Legalizing marijuana means putting an end to decades ofunfair laws that unfairly target and destroy minority communities across America.

[OPIOID REDUCTION] Legalizing marijuana could be an effective tool at combating the opiate addiction crisis that isravaging our country. In states that permit medicinal marijuana, opiate overdoses drop by an average of 25%, with theeffect getting bigger the longer these laws have been in place. And studies have shown marijuana to be an effectivealternative to opiates for pain treatment and in medically-assisted relapse prevention.

Legalization as a Catalyst for Voter Enthusiasm &

Turnout

Over six-in-ten Democrats say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate runningfor elected office if he or she supported legalizing the use of marijuana, including 36%who say they would be much more likely. A plurality of independents also says theywould be more likely to support a pro-legalization candidate.

19

44

33

20

64

15 18

45

2231

25

59

1526

2535

927

14 16

48

More likely Less Likely NoDifference




More/Less Likely to Vote for Pro-Legalization Candidate


Q17. Would you be [ROTATE] MORE or LESS likely to vote for a candidate running for elected office if he or she supported legalizing the use of Marijuana?

A majority of voters – including majorities of Democrats and independents – says thepresence of a pro-legalization ballot initiative in their state ballot would make them morelikely to vote in November, including 43% who say they would be “much more likely.” While50% of Republicans say they would be more likely to vote as well, it is likely they would beactivating against such an initiative.

20

55

8

36

58

5

37

54

6

38

50

12

37

43

5

43

4

44

3

40

9





More/Less Likely to Vote if Pro-legalization Ballot Initiative on State Ballot


Q18. And if there were a ballot initiative in your state to legalize the use of Marijuana, would that make you [ROTATE] MORE or LESS likely to vote in the upcoming November 2018 General election?

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com

202.776.9066

http://www.lakeresearch.com/

Nat’l Likely Voter & Target OSFeb 2018

Nationwide Likely Voter + House Target OS Survey

1000 Likely Voters Nationwide 500 Target House LV

February 19-25, 2018

1


2

Methodology

• 1,000 likely 2018 voters were surveyed nationwide from February 19-25, 2018, with oversamples taken in 53 target Congressional districts, according to Cook Political Report ratings, to reach 500 likely voters.• Interviews were stratified into proportionate units based on turnout

data from previous mid-term elections. • 50% of respondents were surveyed on a landline phone and 50% on a

cell phone.• Margin of sampling error for 1,000 likely voters is ±3.1%. Margin of

sampling error for 500 likely voters is ±4.4%.


Key Take-Aways:• Support for Medical Marijuana is near universal even across partisan lines.• There is NO political penalty for supporting Medical Marijuana, but likely a

backlash for opposing it even among GOP voters.• A candidate’s position on Medical Marijuana has saliency with voters as 3 in 4 say

it is at least somewhat important in deciding how they will vote.• Voters are adamant that the federal government should NOT fight states who

legalize Medical Marijuana and strongly support Congress changing banking regulations to allow Medical Marijuana companies to have bank accounts.• Underscoring the universal support for Medical Marijuana, overwhelming

majorities support having either Medicare, Medicaid or Private Health Insurers pay for Medical Marijuana prescriptions – even GOP voters.• Medical Marijuana is clearly seen as an preferable alternative to Opioids:

• Voters overwhelming see Medical Marijuana as safer than Opioids.• They want to replace Opioids with Medical Marijuana to treat pain.• Given the Opioid epidemic, they want Congress to make it easier for states to legalize

Medical Marijuana as an replacement.• And they would reward Members of Congress who voted to legalize Medical Marijuana as an

alternative to Opioids with their votes.

3


Attitudes on Medical Marijuana

4

Nat’l Likely Voter & Target OS

Feb 2018

5

Medicinal Marijuana Prescribed by Doctor

89% 90%83%

92% 91%

10% 9%14%

7% 8%+79 +81 +69 +85 +83

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Overall Cong Und GOP Ind Dem

Favor Oppose Net Favor

• Medicinal marijuana prescribed by a doctor is almost universally favored – 89% are in favor while just 10% are opposed.

• While there are minor party differences, Republicans nationwide (net +69 favor) and in targeted Cong races (+65) still overwhelmingly favor MM.

• Those undecided in targeted Congressional races are somewhat more skeptical of MM, but still almost 80% favor it.

Q25. Do you favor or oppose legalizing the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes when prescribed by a

doctor to treat specific medical conditions?

87%79% 81%

89% 90%

11%18% 16%

9% 10%+76 +61 +65 +80 +80

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets

Cong Und GOP Ind Dem


Nationwide Targeted Congressional Races


6

Opposing Med. Marijuana – Vote Impact

14% 15% 15% 12% 14%

48% 49%

34%

55% 55%

35%31%

47%

31% 28%

-34 -34 -19 -43 -410%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


More Likely Less Likely No Impact Net More Likely

• Opposing Medical Marijuana would be costly for a member of Congress at the ballot box – 48% say they’d be less likely to vote for them vs. just 14% who say more likely.

• Undecideds nationwide (-34 net more likely) are very likely to oppose someone who voted against MM.• Even Republicans and undecideds in targeted Congressional races are more than 2-to-1 less likely to vote for a MM opponent.

Q26. If your Senator or Congressman voted AGAINST allowing the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes when prescribed by a doctor, would you be MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for them? If it wouldn’t impact your vote, just say so.

14%19% 17%

12% 13%

52%

42% 42%

55%60%

30%35% 35% 32%

24%

-38 -23 -25 -43 -470%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





7

Medical Marijuana Importance to Vote

24% 27%18%

28% 26%

51% 50%50%

49% 54%

24% 19% 31%22% 18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Extremely Impt Smwt Impt Not Impt DK/Ref

• Three quarters call a candidate’s position on MM at least somewhat important to their vote.• Nationwide Democrats and Independents are more likely to call the issue extremely important than their Republican counterparts.

Q30. When deciding on whether to vote for a candidate for U.S. Senate or Congress, how important is their position on legalizing the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes? Would you say their position on the issue is…

25% 19% 23% 24% 29%

51%47%

49% 51%52%

21%27%

24% 22% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets


Extremely Impt Smwt Impt Not Impt DK/Ref



Feb 20188

State vs. Fed – Power to Make Marijuana Laws

60% 55% 59% 61% 60%

27%28%

28% 27% 26%

9%10%

10% 8% 10%

+33 +27 +31 +34 +340%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


State Gov Federal Gov Both Unsure/DK Net State

• 6-in-10 voters say the states should have the power on setting laws about marijuana use, while just over a quarter want it in the hands of the feds.

• This large majority in favor of states setting the policy holds up across party lines and in the targeted Congressional races.

Q29. Regardless of whether your favor or oppose allowing marijuana use for either medical or recreational

purposes, who in your opinion should have the power to set laws and policies regarding marijuana use –

(ROTATE) the federal government or state governments?

58% 60% 55% 61% 57%

26% 21% 30% 24%24%

13%11%

10% 11% 17%

+32 +39 +25 +37 +330%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets


State Gov Federal Gov Both Unsure/DK Net State



Feb 20189

Congress Allow Marijuana Cos. Bank Accounts

67%61%

56%

75% 71%

21% 21%31%

14% 18%

+46 +40 +25 +61 +530%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• By a more than 3-to-1 margin, voters think Congress should change the law to let marijuana companies have bank accounts.

• Majority support exists across the target groups, though weaker with Republicans.

Q32. As you may be aware, a number of states have legalized the use of marijuana for either medicinal or recreational

purposes. Unfortunately despite being legal on a state basis, federal law still prohibits banks from accepting deposits or

giving accounts to any businesses involved with the sale or production of either medical or recreational marijuana.

Would you favor or oppose Congress changing banking laws to allow companies involved in the sale or production of

medical or recreational marijuana to be get banks accounts and make deposits?

68%

55% 57%

72% 76%

23%30% 31%

21%16%

+45 +25 +26 +51 +600%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





10

Fed Gov’t Should NOT Fight State Med. Marijuana

81% 79%74%

85% 84%

15% 14%20%

13% 13%

+66 +65 +54 +72 +710%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Agree Disagree Net Agree

• Very few voters want the federal government to fight state medical marijuana. 15% want them to fight it vs. 81% who do not.• Nationwide and in targeted Congressional races, Republicans are somewhat more inclined for the feds to fight it, but even ¾ of GOPers think they should

not get involved.

Q33. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement. (PROBE: Strongly/Somewhat) “If the voters of a state vote to legalize marijuana for medical purposes, the federal government should NOT fight the state, but instead get out of the way and remove any obstacles.”

79%72% 72%

82% 84%

16% 20% 20%15% 11%

+63 +52 +52 +67 +730%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





11

Medicare Cover Medical Marijuana

78% 76%67%

80%86%

17% 19%27%

14% 11%

+61 +57 +40 +66 +750%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Cover Not Cover Net Cover

• There is widespread agreement Medicare should cover Medical Marijuana like any other legal prescription. • A similar gap between Republicans and Democrats exists as on other questions, but still 2/3rds of Republicans are supportive of the idea.

Q35. If marijuana is legal in a state for medicinal purposes and it is prescribed by a doctor as a treatment, in your opinion should MEDICARE cover the costs of the marijuana prescription like it would any other legal prescription?

78%72% 71%

79%85%

17%21% 23%

17%9%

+61 +51 +48 +62 +760%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





Feb 201812

Medicaid Cover Medical Marijuana

74% 73%

63%

77%83%

20% 18%

31%

15% 13%

+54 +55 +32 +62 +700%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• Medicaid should cover MM according to most voters – ¾ say yes while 1-in-5 are opposed – with similarly large margins in the targeted Congressional

races.

• Even among less supportive Republicans, coverage receives 2-to-1 support.

Q36. If marijuana is legal in a state for medicinal purposes and it is prescribed by a doctor as a treatment, in

your opinion should MEDICAID cover the costs of the marijuana prescription like it would any other legal

prescription?

77%70% 72%

77%83%

18% 19%25%

17%10%

+59 +51 +47 +60 +730%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





Feb 2018

13

Private Health Insurance Cover Medical Marijuana

80% 77%69%

83%88%

12% 13%20%

9% 8%+68 +64 +49 +74 +80

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• Voters overwhelmingly agree private health insurance should cover MM – 80% say cover while just 12% say not cover.

• Democrats are almost unanimously supportive of coverage, as are most Independents and more than 2/3rds of Republicans.

Q37. If marijuana is legal in a state for medicinal purposes and it is prescribed by a doctor as a treatment, in

your opinion should PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE INSURERS cover the costs of the marijuana prescription

like it would any other legal prescription?

79%73% 72%

78%86%

14% 17% 21%15%

7%+65 +56 +51 +63 +79

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





Marijuana vs. Opioids

14


15

Safer: Marijuana or Opioids

75% 73% 69%76%

81%

5% 3% 7% 5% 4%+70 +70 +62 +71 +770%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Marijuana Opioids Net Marijuana

• Voters widely agree marijuana is safer than opioids – 75% say marijuana vs. just 5% saying opioids.• No group is in double digits saying opioids are a safer method to treat pain.

Q43. Based on what you know, between (ROTATE) opioids and medical marijuana, which in your opinion is the SAFER means to treat pain?

71%

59%64% 68%

79%

5% 6% 6% 7%2%+66 +53 +58 +61 +77

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets


Marijuana Opioids Net Marijuana



Feb 2018

16

Replace Opioids with Medical Marijuana

76% 73%68%

78%83%

13% 15% 19%11% 8%

+63 +58 +49 +67 +750%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• By a 63-point margin nationwide and 58-points in the targeted Congressional races voters favor replacing opioids with MM to treat chronic pain.

• Nationwide there is a sizable partisan gap between Republicans and Democrats, with undecided voters closer to Republicans in the targeted races.

However it is necessary to emphasize even among the ‘weaker’ groups the idea of replacing opioids with medical marijuana is overwhelmingly favored.

Q39. Do you favor or oppose using marijuana to replace opioids as a way to treat chronic pain?

73%

61%66%

74% 78%

15%22% 21%

12% 11%

+58 +39 +45 +62 +670%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





Feb 201817

Congress Make Easier for MM to Replace Opioids

79% 76%70%

81% 85%

13% 15% 19%10% 8%

+66 +61 +51 +71 +770%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• Voters say Congress needs to make it easier for states to legalize MM to replace opioids – 79% agree vs. 13% who disagree.

• Again, there is widespread support for this among undecided voters & members of all parties.

Q44. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement? (PROBE: Strongly/Somewhat)

“Given the current opioid epidemic sweeping the country, Congress should make it easier for states to legalize medical

marijuana to replace opioids as a treatment for pain”

76%67% 66%

79% 82%

14%19% 19%

11% 11%

+62 +48 +47 +68 +710%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets





Feb 2018

18

Legalize MM as Opioid Alternative – Vote Impact

55%51%

43%

60% 63%

7% 8% 10%6% 6%

33% 32%

43%

29% 28%

+48 +43 +33 +54 +570%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



• MoCs supporting MM as an alternative to opioids for pain will get a boost on election day – 55% of voters say more likely vs. just 7% who say less likely.

• Even 43% of Republicans nationwide and 48% in targeted Congressional races say they’d be more likely to back a Congressman who supported this, with

Indies and Dems significantly higher.

Q42. If your Senator or Congressman voted to LEGALIZE the use of medical marijuana as an alternative to

opioids to treat pain, would you be MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for them? If it wouldn’t impact your

vote, just say so.

56%47% 48%

60% 60%

8% 8% 9%4%

11%

31%36% 36% 36%

22%

+48 +39 +39 +56 +490%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CongTargets




MedMen·

.111. FABRIZIO

LEE

The Politics of Cannabis Pollsters

Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners & Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates

Panelists

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) & Congressman David Joyce (R-OH)

Moderator

John Hudak, Brookings Institution

Presented by:

�SUf\TERRA ,,, W E L L N ES S

LRP LAKERESEARCH PARTNERS

Strategy Precision Impact

'.Ja=-'

lrp - action network · 2018. 9. 26. · 12 5 67 28 4 67 12 76 7 73 9 54 20 favor oppose don't...

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