lucky lanka ipo - capital trust research 275
TRANSCRIPT
Page | 1
Fundamental Analysis Division
Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd
Lucky Lanka Milk Processing
Company Limited ‐ IPO
Lucky Lanka Milk Processing Co. Ltd Initial Public Offering of Ordinary Shares
38 Mn Voting Shares | 24 Mn Non-Voting Shares
Sector: Food & Beverage | Rs.6.00 & Rs.3.00 | July 2014
About the Company
The company is engaged in the process of making yoghurt and other milk
products, and distributing them island wide under the brand name ‘LUCKY’.
The company is the only yoghurt manufacturer with a SLS certification in Sri
Lanka. It has its own cold distribution network that consists of 120 delivery
vehicles covering the entire Island.
Lucky Lanka Milk Processing Company Limited was incorporated on 15 June
2007 as a limited liability Company, and today ‘LUCKY’ is a well established
local dairy brand. The company is now entering its growth phase expanding
its operations and market share.
Case for Investment
Growing Earnings:
2015 (F) 2016 (F)
EPS (Rs.) 0.38 0.59
+/‐ Growth 270% 57%
PE (x) Voting 15.9 10.2
Non‐Voting 8.0 5.1
NAV (Rs.) 3.64 4.18
PBV (x) Voting 1.65 1.44
Non‐Voting 0.82 0.72
Company will be almost debt free: Rs.200mn of Interest bearing
borrowings will be settled through IPO proceeds. The company will
make a significant saving on finance expenses
Improved production capacity: Rs.75mn of the IPO proceeds will be
used to improve and expand the production capacity of the milk
processing plant
Increasing Demand for Locally Manufactured Dairy Products: Due
to the rising price of imported powdered milk and the recent health
hazards of imported dairy; consumers are shifting to use locally
manufactured dairy products.
Strategies are in place to penetrate new market segments through
new distribution channels: This will increase sales and profits
Issue price (Rs.) Voting
Non‐Voting
6.00
3.00
No. of shares offered via IPO
Voting
Non‐Voting
38.0 Mn
24.0 Mn
Total No. of shares in issue
subsequent to the IPO
Voting
Non‐Voting
200.0 Mn
176.0 Mn
24.0 Mn
Resultant Market Capitalization Rs.1,128 Mn
Post IPO shareholding
Promoter Shareholders
Public Holding
75.57%
24.43%
Capital to be raised through
the IPO Rs.300Mn
Opening date of the Issue 07th July 14
Closing date 24th July 14
Minimum subscription 1,000 Shares
Allotment Structure
Category No. of Shares
Offered (Mn)
*Retail individual Investors 17.10 (45%)
Unit Trusts 3.80 (10%)
**Non‐Retail 17.10 (45%)
Total 38.00 (100%)
*Retail Individual investors – Applications for
a value of not more than Rs.100,000
**Non‐Retail Investors – Applications for a
value exceeding Rs.100,000
SUBSCRIBE ‐ Medium Term Buy
Page | 2
Fundamental Analysis Division
Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd
Lucky Lanka Milk Processing
Company Limited ‐ IPO
Shareholding Structure – Ordinary Voting Shares
Shareholder Number of Shares
Shareholding
Pre IPO Post IPO
Mr. Lal K.A. Gunawardena 93,119,850 67.5% 52.9%
Ms. B.A. Gunawardena 13,302,910 9.6% 7.6%
Ms. D.A.Gunawardena 13,302,825 9.6% 7.6%
Ms. N.A.Gunawardena 13,302,825 9.6% 7.6%
Goh Family Investment Holding 5,000,000 3.6% 2.8%
Shares offered through the IPO 38,000,000 NIL 21.6%
Total 176,028,410 100.00% 100.00%
Note:
During February 2014 5.0mn shares of the company was issued to Goh Family
Investment Holding at Rs.6.00 per share (same as the IPO price). These shares
will be locked in for six months from the date of listing.
Out of the 133mn non public shareholding, 125.5mn shares will be locked in for
twelve months from the date of allotment or six months from the date of listing
whichever is longer and the balance 7.5mn shares will be locked in for six months
from the date of listing.
Objective of the Initial Public Offer
1. Rs.200mn of the IPO proceeds will be used for debt retirement
This will make the company almost debt free, and reduce the finance
cost significantly.
2. Rs.75mn will be used to improve the existing production plant
a. Rs.35Mn will be utilized immediately to build a new cold room
complex with an ammonia refrigeration system
b. Rs.30Mn will be utilized to add an extension to the existing UHT
milk processing building
c. Rs.10Mn will be invested in new machinery
3. Rs.25mn will be used to finance the following new projects
a. “Gedarata Kiri”‐ Door‐to‐door selling of Milk
b. Milk Bar Outlet and School Canteen
Lucky L
Compa
Finan
Summ
Year Rs.M
Reve
+/‐ G
EBITD
+/‐ G
PAT
+/‐ G
EPS (
PE (x
PE (x
DPS (
Divid
Divid
ROE (
ROA
‐
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
Rs.M
Lanka Milk P
any Limited ‐
ncial High
marized Inco
Ended 31st MMn
nue
Growth (%)
DA
Growth (%)
Growth (%)
Rs.) ‐ Post IP
) ‐ Voting
) ‐ Nonvoting
(Rs.)
end Yield (%
end Yield (%
(%)
(x)
0
0
0
0
2012
Mn
rocessing
IPO
lights & R
ome Statem
March
PO
g
%)
%)
2013
EBITD
Ratios
ment
2014 2015
DA
Fundame
Capital TR
2
68
8
0
24
1
0
5 F 2016 F
ental Analysi
RUST Researc
2012
81.7
88.0
4.8
0.02
48.9
‐
‐
‐
‐
1.7%
0.7%
‐
40.0
80.0
120.0
Rs.M
is Division
ch (Pvt) Ltd
2013
841.8
23%
105.3
20%
18.2
276%
0.09
66.1
‐
‐
‐
‐
5.9%
2.5%
0
0
0
2012
n
2014
896.5
7%
135.7
29%
20.3
12%
0.10
59.1
‐
0.01
0.2%
‐
5.6%
2.7%
2013
Profit Afte
2015 F
986.2
10%
164.9
21%
75.3
270%
0.38
15.9
8.0
0.04
0.6%
1.3%
10.3%
8.6%
2014 2015
er Tax
Page
2016
1,134
15
188
14
118
57
0.5
10
5
0.0
1.0
2.0
14.1
11.1
5 F 2016 F
| 3
6 F
4.1
5%
8.4
4%
8.2
7%
59
0.2
.1
06
0%
0%
1%
1%
Page | 4
Fundamental Analysis Division
Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd
Lucky Lanka Milk Processing
Company Limited ‐ IPO
Summarized Statement of Financial Position
As at 31st March Rs.Mn
2012 2013 2014 2015 F 2016 F
Non‐Current Assets 557.1 536.2 513.2 588.2 663.2
Current Assets 123.4 183.6 252.6 289.7 402.7
Total Assets 680.5 719.8 765.8 877.9 1,065.8
Equity 292.2 310.2 360.5 728.3 835.7
Non‐Current Liability 166.2 194.6 123.3 7.0 7.0
Current Liabilities 222.1 214.9 282.0 151.6 160.9
Total Equity & Liability 680.5 719.8 765.8 886.9 1,003.6
NAV per share (Rs.) ‐ Post IPO 1.46 1.55 1.80 3.64 4.18
PBV ‐ Voting 4.11 3.87 3.33 1.65 1.44
PBV ‐ Nonvoting ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.82 0.72
Gearing Ratio [Debt/(Debt + Equity)] 44% 45% 39% 4% 0%
Current Ratio 0.56 0.85 0.90 1.91 2.50
Valuation & Recommendation
Repayment of interest bearing borrowings will make a significant saving of
finance cost. Thus, the net profit margins will significantly improve.
The demand for locally manufactured dairy products is increasing as more and
more consumers are shifting to local brands to counter the price increase and
health hazards of imported dairy products. Hence, the company is operating in a
growing industry.
Scheduled expansion of production capacity, penetrating in to new markets
through new distribution channels; will improve future earnings of the
company. Based on a conservative forecast the share is issued at a forward PE
of 16.0x (voting) and 8.0x (Non‐voting) based of FY2014/15 earnings.
Lucky Lanka FY 2014/15(F)
Food & Beverage Sector
Market
Voting Non‐Voting
PE (x) 15.9 8.00 22.77 17.33
PBV (x) 1.65 0.82 5.03 2.06
The information and the opinions contained herein were compiled by Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd, and are based on information obtained from reliable sources in good faith. However, such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty expressed or implied is made by Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd and its related companies as to its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Neither Capital TRUST Research (Pvt) Ltd nor its related companies, directors and employees can be held liable whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein
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