lunch keynote ken kies
TRANSCRIPT
Tax and Budget Policy in the Washington Swamp as We Approach Another Election
Year
Bank Tax InstituteOrlando, FL
November 14, 2013
Kenneth J. KiesManaging Director
Federal Policy Group
Page 2
View from Washington
Page 3
Overview
Federal Fiscal Outlook Economic Outlook Looming Deadlines On to the 2014 Election Outlook for Tax Reform in 2013 – Is More Redistribution
Needed? Tax Reform Predictions
Page 4
The Outlook for 2013
Federal Fiscal Outlook
Page 5
Deficit Outlook Under CBO
$1,413$1,294 $1,300
$1,087
$642$560
$378 $432 $482 $542$648
$733 $782
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Annu
al D
efic
it ($
bill
ion)
Fiscal Year
CBO Baseline
Source: CBO Baseline Budget Outlook, May, 2013
Page 6
Federal Debt Outlook: White House
$16.1$17.0
$18.1$19.1
$20.0$20.9
$21.8$22.6
$23.4
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Publ
icly
Hel
d De
bt (
$ Tr
illio
ns)
Fiscal Year
Total Federal Debt
Source: White House Updated Budget for Fiscal Year 2014, July 2013
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Federal Debt Outlook: White House
106% 107% 107% 107% 106% 105% 104% 104% 103%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Fiscal Year
Total Federal Debt (As % of GDP)
Source: White House Updated Budget for Fiscal Year 2014, July 2013
Page 8
Debt to GDP Ratio is Likely Worse
ProjectedGDP Growth
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
White House
3.3% 4.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1%
Federal Reserve(range)
1.8 -2.4%
2.2 –3.3%
2.2 –3.7%
2.2 –3.5%
2.1 –2.5%
2.1 –2.5%
2.1 –2.5%
2.1 –2.5%
2.1 –2.5%
CBO 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
White House Projections on GDP Growthare More Optimistic than other Government Projections
Page 9
Now Even Worse News
Page 10
Entitlements Drive the Debt Higher
Page 11
Federal Revenues Were Depressed As Well
Revenues as a percent of GDP have averaged 17.8 percent since 1950
Revenues as a percent of GDP have been at their lowest level since 1950
FY- 2009 - 15.1%
FY- 2010 - 15.1%
FY- 2011 - 15.4%
FY- 2012 – 15.7%
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But Revenues Have Recovered
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
% of GDP 16.9 18.0 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1
Source: CBO Baseline Budget Outlook, May, 2013
Page 13
The Interest Rate Time Bomb
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Billions $223 $237 $264 $313 $398 $497 $573 $644 $703 $764 $823
% of GDP 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2
Total FedSpending(Billions)
$3,455 $3,602 $3,777 $4,038 $4,261 $4,485 $4,752 $5,012 $5,275 $5,620 $5,885
% of Total Spending
6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 7.8% 9.3% 11.1% 12.1% 12.8% 13.3% 13.6% 14%
10-yearTreas Notes
2.1 2.7 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Federal Net Interest Expense
Source: CBO Baseline Budget Outlook, May, 2013
Page 14
States and Cities in Fiscal Crisis States face trillions in pension funding shortfall (continued)
– The state pension situation is improving, but most plan funding is still low… On average, state pension plans are roughly 73 percent funded, according to Morningstar, an investor research company that puts together the annual report.
The Washington Post, September 17, 2013
10 states where the public pension fight is fierce (Unfunded Liability):California ($100 billion), Illinois ($85 billion), Kansas ($9.2 billion), Kentucky ($30 billion), Louisiana ($18 billion), New Hampshire ($4.26 billion), New Jersey ($41.7 billion), New York ($9 billion), Oklahoma ($10.6 billion), Rhode Island ($4 billion)
The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2012
Some cities face bankruptcy
– “Atwater, California files for bankruptcy.” Reuters, October 4, 2012
– “Illinois Weighs Plan to Climb Out of Pension Hole.” The Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2013
– “Harrisburg [PA] is in default on its debt and has been effectively shut out of the municipal-debt market, which cities and states use to finance everything from building schools to paving roads.Harrisburg's misery is familiar to many U.S. cities trying to climb out of debt used to finance convention centers, hotels and employee pensions. Some governments are cut off now from funding for necessities such as repairing infrastructure.” The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2013
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Detroit: The Mother of all Pension Problems
Page 16
Is New York City Next?
Mayor Michael Bloomberg: NYC may be the next Detroit
New York City is headed toward the same bankrupt fate as Detroit, unless the incoming mayor tends to municipal union issues and
curbs soaring pension costs right away, Mayor Michael Bloomberg warned on Tuesday. “Avoiding the hard choices is how Detroit went
bankrupt,” he said, in a speech before a Brooklyn crowd… he’s advising his followers to take heed from a city that’s been there, done
that, in terms of financial disaster. Chicago, he reminded, just sent pink slips to 2,100 teachers and school workers to help defray the
costs of pensions.
Washington Times, August 8, 2013
Page 17
A Crisis Among Our Young People
Page 18
“Less than one-third of eight-graders can identify the historical purpose of the Declaration of Independence,
and it’s right there in the name.”
Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’ConnorSeptember 9. 2013
Page 19
“In a survey conducted by the National Constitution Center, an independent nonprofit group, more teens could name the Three
Stooges than the three branches of government.”
GreatSchools.org
Page 20
Don’t Know Much About Civics
Only 24% of fourth-grade students scored at the proficient level in civics.
Only 27% of High School Seniors scored at the proficient level.
Even in the last presidential election, when there was a surge in new voter registration, less than half of the eligible 18- to 24-year-olds voted.
2012 National Assessment of Education Progress Civics Report Card to the Nation
Page 21
Looming Deadlines
Page 22
Looming Deadlines
December 13, 2013 – Budget Conference Deadline
January 15, 2014 – Continuing Resolution Expires
February 7, 2014 – Debt Ceiling
Page 23
How is Obamacare doing?
Page 24
On to the 2014 Election
Page 25
2014 Election: Rothenberg Report
Category SenatorsPure Toss Up Mary Landrieu (D-La)
Mark Prior (D-Ark)Max Baucus (D-Mont) (open)
Tilt Republican No one
Tilt Democrat Mark Begich (Alaska)Kay Hagen (NC)
Lean Republican Tim Johnson (R-S.D.) (open)Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) (open)
Lean Democrat Tom Harkin (Iowa) (open)
Republican Favored Saxby Chambliss (Ga.) (open)Mitch McConnell (R-Ky)
Democrat Favored Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Rothenberg Report, August 9, 2013
Page 26
Outlook for Tax Reform in 2013 –Is More Redistribution Needed?
Page 27
The Tax Code Has Become More Progressive
Year IncomeClass
% of TotalAGI
% of Total Income Tax Paid
2010 Top 1% 18.9% 37.4%
Bottom 50% 11.7% 2.4%
2007 Top 1% 22.86% 39.81%
Bottom 50% 12.19% 3.36%
2000 Top 1% 20.81% 37.42%
Bottom 50% 12.99% 3.91%
1990 Top 1% 14% 25.13%
Bottom 50% 15.03% 5.81%
1980 Top 1% 8.46% 19.05%
Bottom 50% 17.68% 7.05%
Source: The Tax Foundation, “Summary of Latest Federal Income Tax Data”, November 29, 2012*Handout: Joint Committee on Taxation “Overview of the Federal Tax System”, February 24, 2012
Page 28
2012 Income Tax Liability for Individuals
IncomeClass
Total Tax Liability Total Returns Filed Average Tax Liability Per Return
$30,000and Below
($46.8 Billion) 53 Million $0
$30,001 -$200,000
$425.2 Billion 95.7 Million $4,473
$200,001and Above
$561.5 Billion 6.3 Million $89,047
Source: Joint Committee on Taxation , Estimate Of Federal Tax Expenditures For Fiscal Years 2012-2017, February 1, 2013
Page 29
Taxes to Increase in 2013 for Wealthier Taxpayers
Sources: Joint Committee on Taxation, Estimate Of Federal Tax Expenditures For Fiscal Years 2012-2017, February 1, 2013White House Office of Management and Budget, January 8, 2013
The White House projects wealthier taxpayers will pay an additional $27 billion in taxes in calendar year 2013 because of the Fiscal Cliff deal. The White House further estimates that high-income taxpayers will pay an additional $88 billion per year by FY2023.
Page 30
Tax Expenditures benefit more than the “Rich”
Source: Joint Committee on Taxation , Estimate Of Federal Tax Expenditures For Fiscal Years 2012-2017, February 1, 2013
2012 Federal Tax Benefits Total Benefit for Incomes$200,001 and Above
Total Benefit for Incomes$200,000 and Below
Mortgage Interest $23.6 Billion $44.5 Billion
Student Loan Interest $0 $1.3 Billion
Education Credits $65 Million $11.8 Billion
Child Tax Credit $16 Million $56.7 Billion
Earned Income Tax Credit $0 $59 Billion
Child Care Credit $166 Million $3.1 Billion
Charitable Giving $21.6 Billion $16 Billion
Local Taxes (Including Sales) $24.1 Billion $19.6 Billion
Medical $1.4 Billion $10.3 Billion
Real Estate Tax $6 Billion $18.2 Billion
TOTAL $76.9 Billion $240.5 Billion
Page 31
Tax Rates for California and New York City
StateTop Federal
Tax Rate(inc. 3.8%
Medicare tax)
Top State/Local Tax
Rate
Total Top Income Tax
Rate
California 43.4% 13.3% 56.7%New York City 43.4% 12.696% 56.096%
Page 32
Selected Federal Means-Tested Programs and Refundable Tax Credits
Outlay for theFederal Government
1972(2012 Dollars)
1991(2012 Dollars)
2011(2012 Dollars)
Earned Income Tax CreditAmount Spent*% of all Tax Filers
00
$8 Billion7.6%
$55 Billion17.7%
Child Tax CreditAmount Spent*% of all Tax Filers
00
00
$28 Billion14.7%
Supplemental Security IncomeAmount Spent% of all U.S. Residents
00
$23 Billion1.8%
$49 Billion2.5%
AFDC/TANFAmount Spent% of all U.S. Residents
$18 Billion**
$20 Billion**
$18 Billion**
SNAP (Food Stamps)Amount Spent% of all US Residents
$9 Billion5.3% (11.1 million)
$31 Billion8.9% (22.6 million)
$79 Billion14.3% (44.7 million)
Housing AssistanceAmount Spent% of all Households
$5 Billion2.1%
$26 Billion4.1%
$39 Billion3.7%
Pell GrantsAmount Spent% of US Residents
00
$8 Billion1.3%
$36 Billion3.0%
Tax Code provisions in RED.*Numbers for tax credits consist only of amounts paid to tax filers because they exceed filers’ tax liabilities.**Comprehensive data on participation are not available for AFDC/TANF. Source: Congressional Budget Office, “Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households,” February, 2013
Page 33
The Outlook for 2013
Tax Reform Predictions