m. kim and f. cucinotta example solar proton event data nasa jsc august 30, 2006

M. Kim and F. Cucinotta

Example Solar Proton Event Data

NASA JSC

August 30, 2006


Times of Occurrence of Large SPE’s

GCR Deceleration Potential

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

F, M

V

+ + + +- - -

1/1/1950 1/1/1960 1/1/1970 1/1/1980 1/1/1990 1/1/2000 1/1/2010 1/1/2020

F(>

30

Me

V),

Pro

ton

s/cm

2

108

109

1010F>108 solar protonevents only

Modern Era (1956-2005)Recent Era (1550-2000)

McKracken et al.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Year

Su

ns

po

t n

um

be

r

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

<n(

t)>

, Ev

en

ts/y

ea

r

Population distribution level, percent90

70

50

30

10

Measured sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

Projected smoothedsunspot number at level, percent

807570

Cycle 23 Cycle 24

<n(t)> :F

30>=105

F30>=106

Projections of Cycles and Mean Occurrence Frequency of SPE


Cycle Onset Time F30, protons/cm2 Time to Peak Flux, hr Comment

19 11/12/1960 9.00 x 109 14 (a), note 1

20 8/2/1972 5.00 x 109 69 (a)

22 10/19/1989 13:05 4.23 x 109 26.9 (b)

23 7/14/2000 10:45 3.74 x 109 25.8 (b)

23 10/26/2003 18:25 3.25 x 109 4.2 (b), note 2

23 11/4/2001 17:05 2.92 x 109 33.2 (b)

19 7/10/1959 2.30 x 109 note 3 (a)

23 11/8/2000 23:50 2.27 x 109 16.1 (b)

22 3/23/1991 8:20 1.74 x 109 19.5 (b)

22 8/12/1989 16:00 1.51 x 109 15.2 (b)

22 9/29/1989 12:05 1.35 x 109 14.1 (b)

23 1/16/2005 2:10 1.04 x 109 39.7 (b)

19 2/23/1956 1.00 x 109 note 4 (a)

Large Solar Proton Events during Solar Cycles 19-23 with F30 > 109 protons/cm2

(a) F30 for solar cycle 19-21: data taken from Shea and Smart.(b) F30 for solar cycle 22 and 23: calculated using corrected 5-min average proton flux of GOES measurements.Note 1: There are large differences in the estimate of fluence in November 1960 SPE.

Data given by others are significantly smaller than this value (1.3 x 109 protons/cm2 by Freier and Webber).Note 2: F30 for the combined 3 major peaks occurred during 10/26-11/6/2003: 3.42 x 109 protons/cm2.Note 3: one day later on July 11, 1959 Note 4: in the same day on February 23, 1956


Proton Integral FluxAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

0 50 100 150 200 250

Time, h

Flu

x,

Pro

ton

s/c

m2-s

E > 10 MeV

E > 30 MeV

E > 60 MeV


BFO Dose RateAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

0 40 80 120 160 200 240

Time, hr

Do

se R

ate,

cG

y-E

q/h

AL(0)

AL(1)

AL(3)

AL(5)

AL(10)

AL(15)

AL(20)

AL(30)

1 cGy/h


1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

0 40 80 120 160 200 240

Time, h

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Do

se

Eq

uiv

ale

nt,

cS

v Current 30-day limit

Al thickness, g/cm2:0135

10152030

BFO Cumulative DoseAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE


82 BFO Locations

● 32 location set● 50 location set


August 1972 SPE (1 g/cm2 Al shield)

BFO Location

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

BF

O D

ose

Eq,

cG

y-E

q

0

100

200

300

400

500

Marrow location, jHead and NeckUpper TorsoMiddle TorsoThighsAverage


Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Time, h

Flu

x, p

roto

ns

/cm

2 -s

E ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE ≥ 100 MeV


0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Time, h

Do

se

Ra

te, c

Sv

/h

1 rem/h

Al thickness,

g/cm2:

0135

10152030

BFO Dose Rate during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE


0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Time, h

Flu

x,

pro

ton

s/c

m2-s

E ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE ≥ 100 MeV

Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral FluxOct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE


0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Time, h

Do

se

Ra

te, c

Gy

-Eq

/h

1 cGy/h

Al thickness,

g/cm2:

0135

10152030

BFO Dose RateOctober 26- November 6, 2003 SPE


BFO Cumulative DoseOctober 26- November 6, 2003 SPE

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Time, h

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Do

se

Eq

uiv

ale

nt,

cS

v

AL(0)

AL(1)

AL(3)

AL(5)

AL(10)

AL(15)

AL(20)

AL(30)

Current 30-day limit


1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Time, h

Flu

x,

pro

ton

s/c

m2-s

E ≥ 10 MeVE ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE > 100 MeV

Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral FluxJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE


BFO Dose RateJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Time, h

Do

se

Ra

te,

cG

y-E

q/h

1 cGy/h

Al thickness, g/cm2

0 1 3 5

10 15 20 30


1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Time, h

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Do

se

Eq

uiv

ale

nt,

cS

v

AL(0)

AL(1)

AL(3)

AL(5)

AL(10)

AL(15)

AL(20)

AL(30)

Current 30-day limit

BFO Cumulative DoseJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE


216 Particle Events (1976-2005)

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

1.5 3

4.5 6

7.5 9

10

.5 12

13

.5 15

16

.5 18

19

.5 21

22

.5 24

25

.5 27

28

.5 30

31

.5 33

34

.5 36

37

.5 39

40

.5 42

43

.5 45

46

.5

Time to Max Proton Flux, hr

Fre

qu

en

cy

.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Frequency

Cumulative %


Large SPE Integral Fluence Spectra at 1AU


Big SPEs (Cycles 22-23)

1.00E-08

1.00E-06

1.00E-04

1.00E-02

1.00E+00

1.00E+02

1.00E+04

1.00E+06

1.00E+08

1.00E+10

1.00E+12

1 10 100 1000

E, MeV/amu

F (

>E

), c

m-2

10/19/1989 SPE

7/14/2000 SPE

9/29/1989 SPE

11/8/2000 SPE

10/26/2003 SPE

11/4/2001 SPE

1/16/2005 SPE

8/12/1989 SPE

10/30/1992 SPE

6/4/1991 SPE

9/24/2001 SPE

11/6/1997 SPE

6/14/1991 SPE

3/23/1991 SPE

4/21/2002 SPE

11/2/2003 SPE

11/22/2001 SPE

4/20/1998 SPE

11/30/1989 SPE


The Average BFO Doses of the Regions at 6 DLOCs from 1972 SPE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

DLOC1 DLOC2 DLOC3 DLOC4 DLOC5 DLOC6

BF

O D

os

e,

cG

y-E

q Head & Neck

Chest

Abdomen

Pelvis

Thighs

Lower Legs

Arms


Was Carrington Event (1859) Lethal?1859 event has largest F>30 Flux known

Proton Fluence >30 MeV per cm2

108 109 1010

% P

roba

bilit

y in

2-W

eek

Mis

sion

s

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

Blood Forming Organ Dose, cGy-Eq1 10 100

30-d

ay D

ose

L

imit

Vio

lati

on

5% P

rod

rom

al

Sic

knes

s Mission disruption-days lost?

Increased fatal cancer risk

and other late effects

Modern data(1956-2005)

Arctic ice-core data

5% A

cute

Let

hal

ity

Un

ifo

rm D

ose

Single Mission

3 missions/year for5-yr Program

Conditions underApollo Spacecraft -type shielding

Ice-Core data-F>30MeV flux from1450-1990


SPE Probability in 1-Week Missionand

BFO Exposure Level inside a Typical Equipment Room in Free Space

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09 1.E+10 1.E+11

Size of Event (>F30)

SP

E/M

issi

on

0.1

1

10

100

1000

BF

O D

ose

, cG

y-E

q

Average Probability of Space Era

Extended Average Probability

Impulsive Nitrate Events

BFO Dose of Worst Case SPE Model

BFO Dose of SPE during Space Era

NCRP 30-day limit at BFO for LEO mission


Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102

111

120

Time from Solar Minimum, month

Fre

qu

ency

0

50

100

150

200

Sm

oo

thed

Mo

nth

ly S

un

spo

t N

um

ber

Frequency

Monthly sunspot number

F30 > 108 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 21.

Feb 1978

Apr 1978

Sept 1978

Sept 1979

Apr 1981

Jan 1982

Oct 1981

Dec 1982

Apr 1984


Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month PeriodsF30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 22.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102

111

120


Fre

qu

en

cy

0

50

100

150

200

Sm

oo

the

d M

on

thly

Su

ns

po

t N

um

be

r

Frequency


Sept 1989Oct 1989Aug

1989

Mar 1991


Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month PeriodsF30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 23.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102

111

120


Fre

qu

en

cy

0

50

100

150

200

Sm

oo

the

d M

on

thly

Su

ns

po

t N

um

be

r

Frequency


Jul 2000

Nov 2000

Nov 2001

Oct 2003

Jan 2005

m. kim and f. cucinotta example solar proton event data nasa jsc august 30, 2006

Documents

times of occurrence

recent era

large spesmodern era

projections of cycles

ssnsmoothed ssnf

mckracken et