m s c the world in 2050 modified
TRANSCRIPT
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The World in 2050Challenges and Opportunities
for Modelling and Simulation
Richard Zobel
Dept. of Computer Engineering
Prince of Songkla UniversityPhuket
Thailand
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Global Problems and Challenges:
Can Modelling and Simulation Help?
1 Climate Change Consequences
2 Threats from Earth Movements3 Approaching Asteroid Threats
4 Overpopulation Consequences5 More Violent Weather
6 Possible Military Threats
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Climate Change Symptoms
1 Rising Sea Levels
2 Higher Temperatures
3 Loss of Habitat Due to Fires
4 Migration of Species and Diseases
5 Migration of Peoples
6 Loss of Agricultural Land
7 Famine and Fighting
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Climate Change Consequences
1 Smaller land area, loss of shore
2 Drier climate, drought, crops
3 Major fires causing destruction
4 Addition or loss of species
5 People move to temperate areas
6 Less agriculture, food shortage
7 Starvation and wars
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Fresh Water Needs
There is insufficient supply of fresh water in manycountries.
Desalination of seawater can solve this problem, but
requires energy.
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Typical Multistage Flash Converter SeawaterDesalination Plant in the Middle East
(Copyright & Courtesy of Parsons Brinkerhoff)
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Additional System Requirements
1 Local Power Source
2 Storage and Distribution
3 Brine Waste Disposal
4 Environmental Consequences
5 Rate of Production
6 Capital and Running Costs
7 Maintenance
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Solar Panel Array
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Wind Power
Typical Wind Turbine
Low Power OutputNeed Large Numbers
No power without wind
Best out at sea
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Modelling and Simulation -a Systems Approach
1 Link models and simulations
2 Scale local or regional
3 Consider management
4 Consider operations of neighbours
5 Rate of Production and Storage
6 Wind is good with water storage
7 Saline waste disposal is a problem
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Energy Supply and Power Generation
Types of Power Generation
1 Carbon Based (Oil, Coal, Gas)2 Water Based (Wave, Tidal, Rivers)
3 Wind Based4 Solar Based
5 Nuclear Based
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Oil Production 1930-2050(Courtesy F. Cellier, ETH, Zurich)
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Oil and Natural Gas Production
The figure shows a declining situation.
New sources have poor yieldThis needs more energy for extraction
Meanwhile there is population increase
Rising sea level means less land
Low carbon technologies are not up to speed yet
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Conventional Nuclear Power
This is increasing with newer designs.
However, only a small proportion of the enriched
uranium is used low efficiency.
Fast breeder reactors are needed.
Plutonium reactors are being developed.
This would lead to substantial reduction in stored spent
Uranium, and substantial reduction in stored Plutonium.
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Control Room of Paks Nuclear Power Station Training Simulator
Courtesy J. S-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest, Hungary
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Nuclear Fusion
This is a method for power generationusing a similar atomic reaction as the Sun
Prototype is under construction in France
It might be operational by 2050.
There are other related methods
They do NOT use Uranium, Plutonium, etc
They should solvelong term energy needs
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Design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
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Design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(Courtesy of Zoletnik, Association EURATOM/HAS, KFKI, Hungary)
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Climate Change Effect
Warmer, drier, more violent weather, etc Rising sea levels consequences!
Loss of:
land, capital cities, food production, etc Reduced habitable areas Over population Mass migration of peoples
These need to be modelled in advance toobtain estimates of the consequences for
each region and circumstance.
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Some Major Challenges
Earthquakes and TsunamiCaused by plate tectonics, landslides,geophysical adjustments, etc
Flash Floods and MudslidesCaused by extreme weather, local geography,poor water course management, poor construction, etc
Meteor StrikeUnpredictable, but detectable?
Solutions are requiredto minimise loss of life, damage, and financial loss
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The World in 2050Conclusions
The Key Issues:
The most important contributors for solving these
real problemsahead of disasters are modellers andsimulationists who are:
Scientists, Technologists
Engineers and Mathematicians:
Who employ a whole systems approach, not piecemeal
This means YOU!