machine learning: issues and opportunities · challenges •integrating variable distributed energy...
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ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle
for the US Department of Energy
Machine Learning:Issues and Opportunities
ARPA-E Machine Learning-Enhanced Energy-Product Development Workshop
June 21-22, 2018
Falls Church, VA
David E. WombleDirector of Artificial Intelligence Programs
Oak Ridge National Laboratories
With thanks toCelia Merzbacher
Teja Kuruganti
Srikanth Allu
Rich Archibald
ORNL Publication ID: 112595
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2 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
What are Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
• A class of data analytics algorithms in which the rules and/or models are not known a priori and are learned as part of the process
– Process data to identify correlations
– Complexity of the model is a potential problem
• Computers trained to perform tasks that if performed by a human would be said to require intelligence
– Knowledge-based tasks
– Computers are good at working with data, not “meaning”
Create Rules/ModelsLearning/Training
Evaluation/ Inference
Training data
Rules/ Model
Real dataDecision/Prediction/ Classification/Design
Synthetic data
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3 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Hope/Hype/Hard Truth
• Hope
– The convergence of big data, HPC, and AI will enable the accumulation and automation of functional knowledge across many application spaces.
• Hype
– AI solutions are superior to collective intelligence of the experts for multi-modal data challenges
– Effective translation of AI tools is straightforward
• Hard truths
– AI solutions, thus far, are effective at executing narrowly defined tasks, identifying correlations in complex data
– Need for sustainable heterogeneous data and compute infrastructure to advance AI innovation
– Access to and availability of ”good” and “labelled” data is one of the biggest challenges for AI
– Vulnerability threats for AI (hacking, intentional manipulation) are a huge concern for deployment
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4 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Taxonomy of AI Uses
• Classification and regression
• Surrogates
• Control
• Inverse problems, design and optimization
Near Infrared (single band) WorldView-3 image
CODA cloud detection saliency map for image above
dimensionreduction
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5 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Use Case: Smart Grid
Application challenges
• Integrating variable distributed energy resources (DERs) with intelligent interfaces
• Integrating storage at multiple layers
• Integrating electric vehicles (EV)
• Managing demand – Residential, Commercial, Industrial
− Enabling energy coordination and trading between buildings and trading between buildings and grid
Technologychallenges
• Connectivity across DERs
• Scalable control and diagnostics algorithms that are driven by data
• Actionable, real-time situational awareness
• Data and physical system security, including privacy
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6 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Smart Grid: Leveraging A Data-rich Environment
• Learning algorithms for wide-area, hierarchical information sources
– Distribution: Intelligent loads, SCADA devices, DERs
– Transmission: Protection systems, power flow control
– Generation: Planning and coordination
– Control: Situational awareness, fine-grained control of DERs, enhanced reliability and resilience
Data-
analysis and
Algorithms
Large-Scale
Modeling and
Simulation
User Feedback
and Decision
SupportApplication
scenarios: grid-
state, outagesUser-
discovery
Algorithm
parameters
Specifications
Simulation-
based
discovery Scenario-
steering
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7 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Use Case: Additive Manufacturing
• Impact of machine learning
– Surrogate models
– Steering high-fidelity simulation
– Design, particularly materials and processes
– Real time diagnostics and control during manufacturing
• Defect detection and mitigation
• Control of local structures
– Predicted performance based on manufacturing data
– Test design and control
Design• Shape• Topology• Material• Process
Manufacturing• RT controls
• Environment
• Process
• Diagnostics
Testing• Validated Process
• Test design
Specifications• Functional• Environmental• Margins
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8 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Ensemble methods
• Statistical methods to improve the performance of machine learning algorithms
– E.g., decision trees, k-NN
– Most common application is perhaps the random forest
– Not effective for stable learners
– Most effective for weak learners
• Bootstrap aggregation (bagging)
– Random selection of training data to improve stability and reduce variance
• Boosting
– Ensembles of weak learners to create a stronger learner
– Can be sequential or parallel
• Stacking
– A trained meta-learner
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9 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Random Forest/Decision Trees Feature Selection and Dimension Reduction
• Problem: Do an approximate combinatorial search to establish a feature-to-function relationship
– A full search requires 2n computations
• Idea: Mine decision trees for patterns
• Decision trees -
– More naturally explainable
– Weak learners
– Prone to overfitting
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10 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Random Forest/Decision Trees
• Step 1 – determine branching criterion
• Step 2 – limit depth to prevent over-fitting
• Step 3 – apply bootstrap aggregation (bagging)
– Select 𝛼 “large” and 𝑛′ = 𝛼𝑛
• Step 4 – apply feature bagging
– Select 𝑝′ = 𝑝
• Step 5 – boost (combine trees)
Decision tree
Random Forest
X11> 0.7
X10< 0.5
X11< 0.7X3> 0.1X3< 0.1
X9< 0.5
X9> 0.5
X10< 0.5X2> 0.9
X11> 0.5
X7> 0.1X7< 0.1X2> 0.3X2< 0.3
X11< 0.5
X2< 0.9
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11 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Random Forest/Decision Trees
• Step 6 – Identify branching patterns and select feature sets
• Step 7 – create new RF branching on selected sets
X2> 0.9
X11> 0.5
X7> 0.1X7< 0.1X2> 0.3X2< 0.3
X11< 0.5
X2< 0.9
X11> 0.7
X10< 0.5
X11< 0.7X3> 0.1X3< 0.1
X9< 0.5
X9> 0.5
X10< 0.5
{X2, X11, X7}
{X2, X11, X1} {X9, X3}
{X9, X11} X10}{X2, X11}
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12 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Neural Networks
• A NN is simply a function approximation, and a NN with a single hidden layer can approximate any function
• Great for models when a specific model form is not known, but not much capability beyond basic statistical methods.
• NNs languished for decades
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13 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Neural Networks – Significant AdvancesDeep Neural Networks
• Deep neural networks (DNNs) were introduced
– Width increases the ability to approximate a function
– Depth increases the abstractions, reduces the number of parameters but increases the computational requirements for training
– Still susceptible to overfitting
– Still an art
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14 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Neural Networks – Accelerated Training
• Key idea for many improvements
If 𝑁1 ⊆ 𝑁2, then 𝐿 𝑁1 ≥ 𝐿 𝑁2
• Leads to
– Residual networks
– Inception networks
– Feature reuse
– Convolutional networks
• Training DNNs became algorithmically tractable
– Stochastic gradient descent
𝑁1 𝑁3 ⊕
𝑁2
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15 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Neural Networks – HPC
• We have the ability to collect and store large amounts of data
• Computational power continued to increase, with architectural improvements that are amenable to neural networks
– For example, GPU became practical for accelerated computations.
– Reduced-precision tensor core units are included
CORAL SystemJaguar: 2.3 PFMulti-core CPU7 MW
Titan: 27 PFHybrid GPU/CPU9 MW
2010 2012 2017 2021
Exascale OLCF5: 5-10x Summit~20 MW
Summit: 10x TitanHybrid GPU/CPU13 MW
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16 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: “Syntactic” Space vs. “Semantic” Space
• Humans tend to think in semantic space, i.e., in terms of the meaning.
And metrics in semantic space are fundamentally different from those in syntactic space
• Implications
– Easy to spoof classification systems
– Transfer learning doesn’t map well.
(Humans tend to transfer learning in semantic space, e.g., transfer what I learned about human behavior in kindergarten to how I drive. Most AI approaches transfer in syntactic space or transfer parts of the model (a sort of “gene transfer”).
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17 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: Verification, Validation, Explainability and Interpretability
• Verification
– Is the model implemented correctly?
• Validation
– Is the model (including training data) appropriate for the decisions being made?
– Must be evidence based
– Requires some form of UQ, robustness guarantees and bounds on “distortion”
Analysis CodeModel
Traditional physics-based HPC
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18 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: Verification, Validation, Explainability and Interpretability
• Verification
– Is the model implemented correctly?
• Validation
– Is the model (including training data) appropriate for the decisions being made?
– Must be evidence based
– Requires some form of UQ, robustness guarantees and bounds on “distortion”
AI ProgramData
Hybrid
Automata
High-
dimensional
data
Probabilistic
Programs
Probabilistic
Non-
deterministic
Automata
Physical
SystemSYSTEM
ABSTRACTIONS
Constraints
on data
Probabilistic
contracts on AI
components
Probabilistic
correctness
guarantees
LIDAR CNN Firmware/OS Robot
System
Software
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19 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: Verification, Validation, Explainability and Interpretability
• Interpretibility
– Can a human understand the model? For example, do the basis vectors in a dimension reduction algorithm have a physical meaning?
• Explainability
– Can the model present a sequence of steps that can justify the answer to an expert?
– Expert based
• Reproducibility
– Does the same experiment lead to the same conclusion?
– Can we run different experiment and not contradict our conclusion?
– If we create a new model with the same data, do we get the same conclusions?
– Required for good science
•
Evidence based
Exp
ert
ba
se
d
Verification & Validation
Exp
lain
ab
ility
Complexity
Inte
rpre
tabili
ty
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20 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: Data Is A Major Problem
• Need more data than was imagined just a few years ago
– We are looking for complex correlations
– Using primarily statistical methods
• Labelled data is a problem
– Generating labels is expensive and labor intensive (e.g., Mechanical Turk)
– Need to move toward reinforcement learning
• Synthetic data and simulated environments are partial solutions
– But an AI can learn the flaws in these systems
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21 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Issue: AI Is An Art
• Choosing the model form and hyper parameters is often ad-hoc and requires experience and insight
• AI models must be tuned
• Neural networks design is difficult and often requires tuning
• Interpreting the results requires expertise
“Machine learning methods are often described in papers at an abstract level, for maximum generality. However, a good choice of hyperparameters is usually necessary to make them work well on real-world problems, and tricks are often used to make most efficient use of these methods and extend their capabilities.”
G. Montrevan, et.al., “Methods for Interpreting and Understanding Deep Neural Networks.”
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22 ARPA-E Machine Learning Workshop
Six Research Areas To Be Addressed
• Data quality and statistics– Even if we have enough data, it is not necessarily good data– Dealing with bias
• Machine learning– Needs to accelerate– Very model dependent
• Merging physics and AI– We can’t violate the laws of physics
• Verification, validation and explainability– Is the answer right, is the model
appropriate, and can we understand it– What is the human-computer interface
• Computing– How do we use “big” computers– How do we use accelerated nodes
• Deployment– Computing at the edge– privacy, ethics and regulations