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MACROECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT REPORT

Number|3

August |2015

BANKA QENDRORE E REPUBLIKES SË KOSOVËS

CENTRALNA BANKA REPUBLIKE KOSOVA

CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOSOVO

2 |

Efficiency of Banks in South-East Europe: With Special Reference to Kosovo CBK Working Paper no. 4

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Macroeconomic Development Report Number 3

BANKA QENDRORE E REPUBLIKËS SË KOSOVËS

CENTRALNA BANKA REPUBLIKE KOSOVA

CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOSOVO

Macroeconomic Developments

Report

Number 3

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Number 3 Macroeconomic Development Report

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PUBLISHER Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo ©

Department of Economic Analysis and Financial Stability

33 Garibaldi, Prishtina 10000

Tel: ++381 38 222 243

Fax: ++381 38 243 763

WEB SITE www.bqk-kos.org

E-mail [email protected];

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Arben MUSTAFA

AUTHORS Zana GJOCAJ

Bejtush KIÇMARI

TRANSLATOR

AND TECHNICAL EDITOR Butrint BOJAJ

STATISTICAL APPENDIX: Statistics Department

NOTE: Users of the data are requested to cite the source.

Suggested citation: Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo (2015),

Macroeconomic Developments Report No. 3, Prishtina.

Any correction that may be required will be made in the web site version.

http://www.bqk-kos.org/

mailto:[email protected]

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ABBREVIATIONS

ALL Albanian Lek

CBK Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo

CEFTA Central Europe Free Trade Agreement

CPI Consumer Price Index

ECB European Central Bank

EU European Union

EULEX European Union Rule of Law Mission

FDI Foreign Direct Investments

FED Federal Reserve System

GDP Growth Domestic Product

IFO Institute for Economic Research

IIP International Investments Position

IMF International Monetary Fund

IPI Import Price Index

KAS Kosovo Agency of Statistics

KFOR NATO-led Kosovo Force

KTA Kosovo Tax Administration

NPL Non-performing Loans

OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

PPI Producer Price Index

REER Real Effective Exchange Rate

SDR Special Drawing Rights

SEE Southeastern Europe

UNMIK United Nations Mission in Kosovo

USA United States of America

VAT Value Added Tax

CONVENTIONS:

" " event does not exist

" . " event exists, data are not available

" … " nil or negligible

(e) estimate

(p) preliminary

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CONTENT

1. Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11

2. Euro area economy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14

3. Prices of main goods in international markets ------------------------------------------------------------------- 17

4. Kosovo’s economy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20

4.1. Gross domestic product ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20

4.2. Prices ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

4.3. Sectorial developments ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 25

5. Fiscal sector -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29

5.1. Budget revenues -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29

5.2. Budget expenditures --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31

5.3. Public debt ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31

6. Financial system --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33

7. External sector ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36

7.1 Current and capital account ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36

7.2. Financial account ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41

7.3. International investment position ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 44

7.4. External debt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 45

8. Macroeconomic projections for 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47

8.1. Gross Domestic Product ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47

8.2. Fiscal sector -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48

8.3. Banking sector ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48

8.4. External sector ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49

9. Statistical appendix ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50

10. References -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 71

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. EURIBOR interbank lending and ECB refinancing rate ---------------------------------------------- 15

Figure 2. Brent crude oil price, in USD -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18

Figure 3. Price of gold ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19

Figure 4. Price index of metals and minerals ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19

Figure 5. Food and cereal price index --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19

Figure 6. Real GDP growth rate ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

Figure 7. Main GDP components --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

Figure 8. Inflation and its main contributors -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22

Figure 9. Tobacco price index and excise in tobacco ------------------------------------------------------------- 22

Figure 10. Food prices and its main categories --------------------------------------------------------------------- 23

Figure 11. Housing, water and energy prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 23

Figure 12. Energy price index and price per KWh ------------------------------------------------------------------ 23

Figure 13. Prices of services--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Figure 14. General inflation and base inflation ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 25

Figure 15. The share of tradable and non-tradable component in CPI components ----------------------- 25

Figure 16. Total CPI and tradable and non-tradable components ---------------------------------------------- 25

Figure 17. Consumer, Producer and Import price indices -------------------------------------------------------- 26

Figure 18. Producer, consumer and energy balance -------------------------------------------------------------- 26

Figure 19. Energy consumption by final consumer ----------------------------------------------------------------- 27

Figure 20. Air transport in Kosovo -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27

Figure 21. Industrial production index --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28

Figure 22. Business registry --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28

Figure 23. Structure of new enterprises ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29

Figure 24. Budget revenues and expenditures ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 30

Figure 25. Fiscal key indicators of SEE as percentage to GDP ------------------------------------------------- 30

Figure 26. Structure of budget ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30

Figure 27. Net domestic revenues by main types of taxes ------------------------------------------------------- 31

Figure 28. Net border revenues by type of taxes ------------------------------------------------------------------- 31

Figure 29. Structure of budget expenditures ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32

Figure 30. Public debt ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33

Figure 31. Growth rate of loans by sectors --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34

Figure 32. Growth trend of loans by economic sectors ----------------------------------------------------------- 35

Figure 33. Annual interest rate average ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 35

Figure 34. Profitability indicators ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 35

Figure 35. NPL and provisions ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 36

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Figure 36. Balance of current account -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37

Figure 37. Imports, exports and trade balance ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 38

Figure 38. Total exports and international prices of metals ------------------------------------------------------ 38

Figure 39. Structure of exports by category -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39

Figure 40. Structure of imports by category -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39

Figure 41. Total imports and international prices of oil and food ------------------------------------------------ 39

Figure 42. Structure of exports and imports by countries --------------------------------------------------------- 40

Figure 43. Structure of net exports of services ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 40

Figure 44. Primary income ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41

Figure 45. Secondary income ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42

Figure 46. Remittances --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42

Figure 47. Foreign direct investments --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43

Figure 48. FDI by main economic sectors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44

Figure 49. Foreign direct investments by form of investments -------------------------------------------------- 44

Figure 50. FDI by main countries --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44

Figure 51. Trade loans and imports ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 45

Figure 52. International investment position ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 45

Figure 53. Net IIP by institutional sectors ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46

Figure 54. Gross external debt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 46

Figure 55. Gross external debt by sectors --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47

Figure 56. Real GDP growth, domestic and external demand -------------------------------------------------- 48

Figure 57. Real GDP growth and its contributors ------------------------------------------------------------------- 48

Figure 58. Budget primary income and expenditures -------------------------------------------------------------- 49

Figure 59. Deposits of private sector and real GDP --------------------------------------------------------------- 49

Figure 60. Lending to private sector and real GDP ---------------------------------------------------------------- 50

Figure 61. Current account ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50

Figure 62. Exports and imports of goods ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. The breakdown of CPI ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23

Table 2. Financial account ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42

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1. Executive summary

Global economic activity, during 2014, took place in a more favorable macroeconomic

environment. The euro area economy began its economic recovery despite the uncertainties about

any possible consequences of the problems in Greece. Despite the gradual recovery of the

economic activity, along with the improved consumers’ confidence and the gradual improvement

of conditions in the labor market, the euro area was characterized by a decline of the inflation

rate in 2014, thus raising concerns of a possible entrance into a deflation period.

Western Balkans during 2014 was characterized by weaker economic growth compared with the

previous year. The average economic growth rate of Western Balkan countries, in 2014, was 1.5

percent, compared with the annual growth of 2.6 percent in 2013. The low inflation rate at the

global level is also reflected in the Western Balkan economies, affecting the average inflation rate

to be lower compared to the previous year.

Kosovo, during 2014, was characterized by positive growth rate, but the same as the region

countries, Kosovo’s economy was characterized by lower growth rate compared to the previous

year. The real economic growth rate in Kosovo, during 2014, according to the preliminary

estimates of KAS was 0.9 percent, while the publication of the official assessment of GDP for

2014 is expected to be done by KAS, in November 2015. Based on the KAS estimates, the

economic growth in 2014 was a result of the increased consumption and investments, while net

exports had a negative impact on the economic growth. CBK estimates, however, suggest that the

economic growth in 2014 was higher than 0.9 percent. The main difference between the CBK and

the KAS estimates is due to the higher CBK estimates on consumption growth in 2014.

Important sources of consumption, such as new consumer loans, remittances, public sector wages

and pensions, have increased significantly, in 2014, and this is estimated to have increased the

disposable income and, consequently, the growth of consumption. Regarding investments, the

CBK estimates show that investments in 2014 were characterized by a decline of 7.6 percent.

This decline in investments is mainly attributed to the investment decline of public expenditures,

while private sector investments registered a slight increase. Net export position, in 2014, had a

negative impact on the economic growth.

Despite the consumption growth, inflation was characterized with a decline in 2014. This decline

of inflation rate was mainly a result of the price decline of imported goods, which highly reflects

the interconnection between the price developments in Kosovo with the prices in international

markets. The average inflation rate in 2014 was 0.4 percent, representing the lowest inflation

level in the recent years. In the decline of inflation the main contributor had footwear and

clothing, transport services, communication means, and education services, while energy prices,

alcoholic beverages and tobacco marked a positive contribution to inflation growth rate.

Sectorial developments in 2014 show a decline in energy production in energy plants from 15

percent compared to the previous year. The decline of energy production in 2014 can be

attributed to some extent to explosion occurred in Kosova A energy plant. The data of industrial

circulation index suggest a circulation growth in the processing industry sector, while the

circulation index of mining industry, the supply with energy, gas, steam, conditioned air and

water supply, management operations and garbage treatment marked a decline.

Fiscal sector was characterized with a slight growth of revenues and same level of realized

expenditures compared to the previous year. General budget revenues marked a growth of 1.5

percent reaching a value of euro 1.3 billion in 2014. Conversely, the total value of budgetary

expenditures reached about euro 1.5 billion, representing almost the same level as in the

previous year. In 2014, Kosovo’s budget registered a primary deficit of euro 131 million compared

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to euro 150 million deficits marked in the previous year. The general government debt, in

December 2014, was euro 582.9 million or 10.6 percent of GDP compared to euro 476.3 million or

9.1 percent of GDP in 2013. Kosovo continues to have the lowest level of public debt compared to

the region countries (57.3 percent of GDP was the average of public debt for the region countries

in 2014). Besides having the lowest level of public debt, Kosovo during 2014 recorded the lowest

growth level of public debt value compared to the average growth rate of public debt of the region

countries.

Kosovo’s financial system, during 2014, was characterized with activity expansion and high

sustainability level in all its constituent sectors. Lending activity of the banking sector was

recovered after the slowdown of growth marked in the two previous years, thus strengthening the

banking sector role in financing the economic activity in the country. The total value of loans,

until December 2014, reached euro 1.88 billion, representing an annual growth rate of 4.2

percent. An important impact in the accelerated growth pace of the lending activity was marked

by the eased lending standards and the improved lending conditions by banks, while also the

demand for loans marked a growth. The crediting structure of enterprises remains the same as in

the previous years, where loans designated to trade sector represent the largest category with a

share of 53.4 percent to total loans to enterprises. The growth of lending activity was primarily

financed by the growth of deposits collected in the country. Deposits of the banking sector in the

country marked an annual growth of 3.6 percent, amounting to euro 2.53 billion in December

2014. During 2014, the structure of deposits by maturity has suffered changes, where it is

observed a significant decrease of time deposits weight, which in the previous years comprised

the majority of total deposits, while it was noted a growth of transferable and saving deposits.

This development in the structure of deposits by maturity primarily is a consequence of the

significant interest rate decline on deposits, which may have discouraged depositors.

In 2014, balance of payments in Kosovo was characterized with a deficit growth in the current

and capital account, while the financial account remained almost at the same level of the

previous year. The current account deficit ratio to GDP, in 2014, marked a growth of 7.6 percent,

from 5.7 percent to GDP as it was in 2013. The volume of trade exchanges of goods and services,

during 2014, marked a growth of 10.6 percent and, consequently, the trade openness rate

reached around 71 percent of GDP (66 percent in 2013). In 2014, trade deficit in goods and

services reached a value of euro 1.7 billion (around 31 percent of GDP), representing an annual

growth of 2.3 percent. The total value of exported goods from Kosovo, in 2014, amounted to euro

324.5 million, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 10.4 percent. The growth value of

exported goods, in 2014, mainly reflects the price growth of the main metal that Kosovo exports

(nickel), and the activity growth in some economic sectors during this period. Meanwhile, goods

imported into the country were characterized with an annual growth rate of 3.6 percent,

amounting to euro 2.5 billion. The growth, by which imports were characterized in 2014, is

mainly attributed to the growth of the domestic demand, whereas the price decline of the main

products which are imported in Kosovo (especially prices of oil and food) had a negative

contribution to the growth of imports value, also in 2014.

The total amount of remittances received in Kosovo reached euro 693.7 million in 2014,

representing an annual growth of 11.7 percent, thus continuing to represent a sustainable source

of financing the consumption in Kosovo. Within the financial account, the balance of the direct

investments decreased for about 51 percent in 2014, marking a value of euro 123.8 million. In

2014, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Kosovo reached a value of euro 151.2 million

compared to the value of euro 280.2 million in 2013.

For 2015, CBK projections suggest that Kosovo’s economy will be characterized with an

accelerated economic growth, marking a real GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent, which is mainly

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expected to be generated by the domestic demand. Consumption, as the main component of the

domestic demand, is expected also during 2015 to have the main contribution to the economic

growth, but with at a lower level compared to the previous year. Conversely, investments which

in the previous year were estimated to have marked a decline, during this year are expected to

mark a growth. The up to date trends in 2015 suggest a growth of the financing sources for

consumption and investments as well. The growth of domestic demand is expected to have an

impact on the import growth and, consequently, on the deficit growth of the current account.

Meanwhile, the financial account of the balance of payments is expected to recover, mainly due to

forecasts of foreign direct investments. Fiscal sector is expected to be characterized with budget

revenue and expenditures growth, but expenditures growth is expected to be higher making the

primary deficit to mark a growth compared to the previous year. As regard to the financial sector,

lending activity is expected to continue with growth trend, thus serving as an important source of

financing the economic growth in 2015.

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2. Euro area economy

Economic activity in the euro area in 2014 is gradually recovering. During 2014, the position of

investments and net exports had a slight impact on the recovery of economic activity in the euro

area, while the modest economic growth was mainly supported by the domestic demand growth

as a result of the improved consumers confidence and gradual improvement of the conditions in

the labour market. Increased economic activity was concentrated in the central economies of the

euro area, namely Germany, France and Spain, while other parts of the euro area continued to be

characterized by weak growth, or recession. In 2014, the euro area economy recorded an annual

increase of 0.8 percent compared to the decline of 0.4 percent recorded in the previous year. In

the first half of 2015, economic recovery in the euro area is estimated to be expanded compared to

the same period of the previous year, based on the strengthening of domestic demand as a result

of increased private consumption, increase of investments and the improve of the position of net

exports. In line with expectations, the level of oil prices in 2015 remained low, thus further

supporting the growth of private consumption and investments by increasing the disposable

income of households and increased corporate profitability. For 2015, the IMF forecasts an

economic growth of 1.5 percent in the euro area.

According to the ECB, the average inflation rate in the euro area, in 2014, declined to 0.4

percent, below the ECB target of 2 percent, from 1.4 percent in 2013. The first quarter of 2015

was characterized with a deflation in the euro area (about -0.3 percent), mainly due to lower

prices in international markets, while in the second quarter of the year euro area was

characterized by an average inflation

rate of 0.2 percent.

In order to counteract the elevated

deflation risk in the euro area and to

improve the economy in the region

which is still fragile, the ECB decided to

launch the quantitative easing program

in March 2015. By purchasing securities

of European governments and European

institutions and agencies in the

secondary markets on monthly basis

with an amount of euro 60 billion, the

program of quantitative easing aimed at

improving conditions directly thus

influencing the investments in the euro area. Quantitative easing program is expected to last

until September 2016.

In 2014, the ECB steadily reduced the key refinancing rate, which led to a decline in the 1 month

rate and 12-month Euribor interbank lending interest rate. In 2014, the average of 1-month

Euribor decreased to 0.12 percent from 0.13 percent in 2013 (figure 1). Also, the average rate for

the 12-month Euribor declined to 0.48 percent in 2014, from 0.54 percent in 2013.

The gradual increase in domestic demand and the eased monetary policy are also reflected in the

growth of the lending activity in the euro area. In 2014, after more than two years, lending to the

private sector recorded a modest increase. Lending to the private sector grew by 0.2 percent in

2014, compared with the annual decline recorded in the previous two years of 2.0 and 0.1

percent, respectively. The growth of the lending activity to the private sector, according to the

0.0%

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c2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1m 12m ECB refinancing rate, (right axis)

Figure 1. EURIBOR interbank lending and ECB refinancing rate

Source: Euribor (2015) and ECB (2015)

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bank lending survey of the ECB, is mainly attributed to the increased demand for financing fixed

investments of enterprises and easing of credit standards by banks.

The performance of the economic activity in the Western Balkans, in 2014, is estimated to have

been generally weaker than in 2013. The slowdown in economic growth, in 2014, in the Western

Balkans was attributed to weak consumer growth and deterioration of the net exports position as

a result of the weak recovery of the demand in the euro area. Average economic growth in the

Western Balkan countries in 2014 is estimated to have been 1.5 percent (2.6 percent in 2013).

Higher economic growth in the region was marked by Macedonia (3.8 percent), while Serbia was

the only country in the region that was characterized by an economic decline in 2014. For 2015,

the IMF forecasts an acceleration of the economic growth in Western Balkan countries where the

growth rate is expected to reach 2.8 percent. Montenegro is expected to mark the highest

economic growth in 2015 (4.7 percent), followed by Macedonia and Kosovo (3.8 and 3.3 percent,

respectively), while Serbia is expected to have an economic decline of 0.5 percent.

Similar to the euro area countries, Western Balkan countries are characterized by lower level of

inflation, respectively deflation in 2014 compared to the previous year, which is mainly

attributed to the low energy and food prices in the international markets. The average inflation

rate in the region, in 2014, according to the IMF, was 0.4 percent. Serbia, Albania and Kosovo

were characterized by an inflation rate of 2.1, 1.6 and 0.4 percent, while Montenegro, Bosnia and

Herzegovina and Macedonia were characterized with deflation.

The situation in the labor market in Western Balkan countries is estimated to have been

improved in 2014 compared the previous year. Recent estimates show an average unemployment

rate of 26 percent in SEE, which is 0.5 percentage points lower compared with the last year. The

highest rate of unemployment continues to be in Bosnia and Herzegovina (43.6 percent), Kosovo

(30 percent), Macedonia (28 percent), and Serbia (18.9 percent), while the lowest unemployment

rate continues to have Montenegro and Albania (18 percent). Within the developments in the

external sector, the Western Balkan countries were characterized by deterioration of the current

account deficit in 2014. The average rate of the current account deficit in the region, in 2014, was

8.5 percent of GDP, which is for 0.9 percentage points higher compared with the previous year.

Montenegro reported the highest rate of current account deficit (15.3 percent of GDP), while the

lowest was reported by Macedonia (1.3 percent of GDP). Apart from Macedonia and Serbia,

which were characterized by decreasing level of the current account deficit compared to 2013, in

other countries the current account deficit was characterized by growth. This deterioration of the

current account deficit was mainly a result of the decline, namely slower growth of exports in the

Western Balkans in 2014, while imports were characterized by growth. Meanwhile, the balance

of foreign direct investments (FDI), which represents a very important component for financing

the current account deficit, worsened in 2014. With deterioration of the balance of FDI to GDP in

2014 against the previous year were characterized Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo and Serbia, while

increasing balance of FDI in the same period was reported by Montenegro and Bosnia and

Herzegovina.

As a result of the austerity measures taken by some governments of the region, their budgetary

balances marked improvements. The budget deficit was reduced from an average of 4.2 percent of

GDP as it was in 2013, at an average of 3 percent in 2014. The highest budget deficit was

recorded in Serbia (6.7 percent of GDP), followed by Albania and Macedonia (5.1 and 4.2 percent,

respectively, of GDP). At the same time, Montenegro was characterized by the lowest deficit (1.5

percent of GDP), while Bosnia and Herzegovina reported a budget surplus (1.0 percent of GDP).

In 2014 compared to the previous year, all Western Balkan countries were characterized by

increase of the public debt. The average public debt in the countries of the Western Balkans in

2014 averaged 49 percent of GDP (about 45 percent of GDP in 2013).

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The average public debt in the Western Balkan countries in 2014 marked an average of 49

percent of GDP (about 45 percent of GDP in 2013). Albania and Serbia, besides having a higher

level of public debt (about 71 percent of GDP), are countries which in 2014 mostly increased the

public debt compared with the previous year. Kosovo continues to have the lowest public debt in

the region with only 10.6 percent of GDP.

Western Balkan countries were characterized by increased lending activity in 2014. With the

exception of Montenegro, which declined the lending activity, all other countries were

characterized by an acceleration of lending growth. However, lending growth in the Western

Balkan countries relied mainly on increased lending to households, while lending to enterprises

is estimated to have stagnated. Regarding deposits in commercial banks in the Western Balkan

countries, Albania and Kosovo were characterized by a slowdown in the growth of total deposits

in 2014, while all other countries have accelerated the deposits growth. Countries in the Western

Balkans mainly reported a decline of non-performing loans in 2014, with the exception of Bosnia

and Herzegovina and Macedonia reported deterioration of credit portfolio quality.

The program of quantitative easing by the ECB and the favourable monetary policy were

reflected into a weakening of the euro currency against the major currencies during 2014. The

average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar in 2014 was almost at the same level

with the previous year (0.1 percent increase), although in the last four months of 2014 euro was

characterized by a significant decline against the US dollar (10 percent annual decline in

December 2014). Against the British pound and Swiss franc euro has recorded an average annual

decrease of 5.0 and 1.3 percent, respectively. Regarding currencies in the region, in 2014 euro

appreciated against the Serbian dinar, Croatian kuna and the Macedonian denar with an

average of 3.7, 0.7 and 0.1 percent, respectively, while it depreciated against the Albanian lek by

0.2 percent.

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3. Prices of main goods in international markets

3.1. Oil prices

Brent crude1 oil prices in 2014 marked an average decline of 9.1 percent compared to 2013. As

shown in figure 2 the decline in oil prices has started in the second half of 2014 after being

characterized by stability prices for several years. Only in December 2014, a barrel cost 62.3

dollars or 43.7 percent less than in December 2013. The price decline continued in January 2015

thus reaching US dollar 48.1 per barrel, or 55.3 percent less than in January 2014, while it was

observed a slight price increase in February. Projections of EIA (US Energy Information

Administration) for 2015 suggest that oil prices are expected to remain relatively stable. This is

because it is not expected any possible shock on the supply side as a result of the high production

in the US, while Middle East countries are estimated that will have needs to sustain high levels

of oil exports.

The main factor that contributed to the

decline in oil prices in 2014 was

considered the increase of oil production

in the US, thus making the US the main

producer on the global level. Although

the United States does not export crude

oil, as a result of the increased domestic

production, the US has reduced oil

import. The decline in oil imports from

the United States has had an impact in

reducing the demand for oil in

international markets, causing a

decrease in price.

In addition, OPEC organization (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has no internal

consensus to reduce oil production. They did not want to sacrifice their share of the market in an

attempt to restore higher price levels, which has enabled the continuation of the price decline of

this product. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, as the largest producer of OPEC, can tolerate lower oil

prices due to the possession of large reserves and very low cost to extract oil from the ground. The

decline in oil prices was also contributed by the global economic activity, which was recovered at

a slower pace in 2014.

The decline in oil prices for importing countries, may have contributed to stimulating the

economic activity and reducing inflationary pressures, especially in food products, since oil and

energy constitute very important components in the production and transport process. The

reduction of oil prices in 2014 is estimated to have had a positive impact on improving the

current account balance of oil-importing countries, as for the same amount imported the nominal

value of payment is lower. These positive elements coming from the oil price decline have

characterized also the economy of Kosovo, where has been a decrease in food prices, as well as

the nominal value of payments for oil imports has been lower in 2014 compared to 2013.

3.2. Prices of gold

1 Brent Crude represents commercial classification for oil produced in the Northern Sea as a representative of oil prices on the global level.

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Source: World Bank (2015)

Figura 2. Brent crude oil price, in USD

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In 2014, also the prices of gold marked a decline, which was reduced to an average of 10.3

percent (figure 3). In December, an ounce of gold (31.1 grams of gold) had a cost of US dollar

1,200.6 which is 1.7 percent less than in December 2013. In January 2015 it was noted an

increase in the price of gold where the price per ounce reached US dollar 1,250.7, or 0.5 percent

higher than in January 2014.

Gold prices usually increase in the

periods of time when there is high

inflation or when major economies face

with crisis. Inflation in 2014 has not

been a concern, but many of the major

economies faced difficulties. However,

these difficulties did not affect the

increase of the gold price. The main

reasons for not increasing the prices of

gold in terms of poor economic

performance in developed countries is

considered to have been the reduction in

key ECB refinancing rate which has

affected the dollar to appreciate against

the euro. Strengthening of the dollar

usually reflects into lower demand for

gold, which prevented the increase in

the price of gold. Also in 2015, gold

prices are expected to be stable.

3.3. Prices of metals and minerals

The price decline of primary products is

also reflected in the prices of metals and

minerals which in the recent years were

characterized by small changes and

decreasing trend. During 2014, the price index of metals and minerals marked a decline of 6.6

percent (figure 4). The most significant index decline was recorded in December 2014 with 11.2

percent, while the decline continued in

2015, where in January this index

decreased by 16.2 percent. Within the

index of prices of metals and minerals,

the most significant decline in 2014

marked the iron minerals with 28.4

percent, followed by copper and lead

with 6.4 and 2.1 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, zinc and nickel prices

were characterized by a significant

increase of 13.1 and 12.4 percent,

respectively. Aluminum prices also were

characterized by a slight increase of 1.1

percent. Movements in metal prices

reflect in the economy of Kosovo, as base metals have a high share to total exports of Kosovo.

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11

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7

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M0

1

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14

M0

4

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14

M0

7

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14

M1

0

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15

M0

1


Figure 4. Price index of metals and minerals

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

20

09

M0

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4

20

09

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7

20

09

M1

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10

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M0

7

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10

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0

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11

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4

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11

M0

7

20

11

M1

0

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12

M0

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12

M0

4

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12

M0

7

20

12

M1

0

20

13

M0

1

20

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M0

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20

13

M1

0

20

14

M0

1

20

14

M0

4

20

14

M0

7

20

14

M1

0

20

15

M0

1

Indeksi i çmimeve të ushqimit Indeksi i çmimeve të drithrave

Source: FAO (2015)

Figure 5. Food and cereal price index

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

20

09

M0

1

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M0

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14

M0

7

20

14

M1

0

20

15

M0

1


Figure 3. Price of gold, in USD per ounce

| 19


3.4. Prices of food products

Prices of food have continued the trend of decline, a trend that began in June 2013. The food

price index in 2014 compared to the previous year marked a decline of 3.8 percent (figure 5).

Cereal Price Index recorded a decrease of 12.5 percent, which can partly be explained by the

decrease of 9.1 percent in oil prices but also because of the relatively high supply on the global

level. As a result of the stable supply, prices of food products are projected to continue their

declining trend in 2015. According to the IMF projections, food price index will mark a decrease

of 11.3 percent, while cereal price index will mark a decline of 20.7 percent.

| 20


4. Kosovo’s economy

4.1. Gross domestic product

Kosovo’s economy, in 2014, was

characterized by slower economic

activity. According to preliminary

estimates of the Kosovo Agency of

Statistics (KAS), the real growth rate of

GDP in Kosovo was 0.9 percent, which

is significantly lower than in the

previous years (figure 6). This estimate

is based on investment growth of 1.5

percent and consumption of only 1.4

percent, while net exports deepened the

trade deficit with 3.2 percent. According

to estimates of the KAS, the nominal

value of GDP in 2014 amounted to euro

5.5 billion (figure 7). However, this is only a preliminary estimate, while the official estimate of

GDP for 2014 is expected to be done by KAS in November of 2015.

Positive economic growth rate for 2014,

suggest also the CBK estimates, but

lower compared with the last year's

growth. However, unlike KAS estimates,

CBK estimates suggest that the

economic activity in 2014 has marked

higher growth rate. Economic growth in

2014, according to the CBK estimates, is

based mainly on increased consumption,

while investments and net exports are

estimated to have contributed

negatively. The main difference in terms

of KAS estimates and those of the CBK

is on the consumer component. Unlike

the KAS, which estimated that consumption increased by only 1.4 percent, the CBK estimates

show that consumption increased by 6.1 percent.

The CBK estimates for accelerated consumption growth is mainly based on private consumption

growth of around 5.9 percent, which simultaneously has the highest share to total consumption

(84.3 percent). The growth of new consumer loans (48.7 percent) and remittances (11.8 percent)

have increased the disposable income of citizens and, consequently, the growth of private

consumption. Also the data on the circulation of enterprises represent an increase of over 3

percent, representing an important indicator to reflect the growth of consumption. In addition,

the data of imports of consumer goods, which increased significantly (12.1 percent), suggest an

increase in consumption. Also, as a result of the government decision to increase salaries and

pensions, public consumption has increased significantly (7.1 percent). Given the aforementioned

factors, we consider that the official estimate of GDP for 2014, which is expected to be published

by KAS in November of 2015, will present a higher growth rate of consumption and GDP for

2014.

3.6

3.3

4.4

2.8

3.4

0.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

* KAS estimate

Source: KAS (2015)

Figure 6. Real GDP growth rate

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net exports Invstments Consumption GDP

Source: KAS (2015)

Figure 7. Main GDP components, nominal value, in billion of euro

| 21


Regarding investments, the CBK estimates show that investments in 2014 were characterized by

a decline of 7.6 percent. Investment position is estimated to have been deteriorated in 2014 due

to the decline in public investments, while private investments were characterized by a slight

increase. The real annual decline of about 23.9 percent of public investments in 2014, to some

extent, may be a result of increased government current expenditures which have limited the

scope for capital investments, but also can be attributed to the delay in the establishment of

institutions after elections in 2014. The decline in public investments in 2014 may have had a

negative impact on the private investments, which however are estimated to have recorded a

slight increase in real terms of 1.6 percent. In the context of private investments, there was

marked a considerable FDI decline of 46.0 percent, but at the same time was recorded a

significant increase of new investment loans with a rate of 35.9 percent. Also the data of import

of capital goods, which marked a growth of 12.9 percent, suggest that there was an increase in

the private investments.

The negative value of net exports continued to contribute negatively to the economic growth also

during 2014. Unlike the previous year, when the negative value of net exports was reduced, thus

contributing positively to the growth, in

2014 negative position of net exports

marked an increase of 5.0 percent. The

real growth of exports of goods and

services of 17.8 percent, was offset by

real imports growth of 9.5 percent which

significantly has larger weight than

exports in total foreign trade of Kosovo.

4.2. Prices

The movement of prices in Kosovo is

similar to the price movements in

international markets, especially the

euro area countries with which Kosovo

has the largest share of commercial exchanges. The same as the prices in the global markets,

which are characterized by a sharp decline, the prices in Kosovo have been characterized by a

downward trend in inflation in 2014. The annual average inflation rate, expressed by the

consumer price index (CPI) in 2014 was

0.4 percent, which is lower than the rate

of 1.8 percent recorded in the previous

year.

To the decline of inflation the main

contribution2 was given by foot wear and

clothing prices with 0.5 percentage

point, then the services of transport,

means of communication and education

prices which contributed by 0.1

percentage points each. On the other

hand, energy contributed positively by

0.8 percentage point, alcoholic beverages

and tobacco by 0.6 percentage points, as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages by 0.3

percentage points (figure 8). It should be noted that the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages

2 The calculation of the contribution of CPI components in the inflation rate, except price movements, is also based on the weight that certain components have in the CPI.

-2.33.5

7.4

2.5 1.8 0.4

-13

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Transport OtherHealth EnergyFurnishing Alcoholic beverages and tobaccoFood and non-alcoholic beverages Annual inflacioni

Figure 8. Inflation and its main condtributors, annual growth in percent

Source: KAS and CBK calculations (2015)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tobacco Excise in tobacco, in euro/unit (right axis)


Figure 9. Tobacco price index and excise in tobacco, in euro

| 22


decreased (0.2 percent), but due to the increased weight in the consumer basket by 0.9 percent

the contribution to the inflation rate was positive (0.3 percent), but significantly lower than in

the previous year (0.8 percentage points).

The decline in the price of educational

services is attributed to the

government’s decision to discount the

payment to 50 percent for students of

public universities while the prices

decline of transport services is

attributed to the decline in oil price. In

addition to education and transport

prices, also communication means were

characterized by a price decline and the

prices of food and non-alcoholic

beverages, which decreased by 1.0

percent and 0.2, respectively. In 2014,

price growth was recorded by alcoholic

beverages and tobacco by 4.3 percent,

electricity, gas and other fuels by 4.1

percent, restaurants and hotels by 1.1

percent, etc.

The category of alcoholic beverages and

tobacco marked a price increase of 4.3

percent. Within this category, tobacco

prices increased by 5.6 percent, while

alcohol prices declined by 0.9 percent.

The increase of tobacco price is mainly a

result of the government decision to

increase tobacco excise tax from 30 to 32

euros per unit starting from January 2014. As shown in figure 9, the price movements of tobacco

in Kosovo is largely defined by excise applied to this product. On the other hand, the category of

food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased by 0.2 percent, while in the previous year had

increased by 2.1 percent. Within the category of food, the more significant decline in prices was

recorded in oil and fats by 9.3 percent,

and bread and cereals by 2.2 percent,

while due to unfavorable climatic

conditions, prices of fruits increased by

3.5 percent (figure 10).

Prices of housing, water, electricity and

fuels, in 2014, marked an average

growth of 4.1 percent (0.4 percent

growth in the previous year). The

higher increase of this category was due

to the price increase of housing with 7.1

percent and electricity and other fuels

with 5.6 percent. Also water supply

marked an increase in price with 0.4

percent and different services which are related to housing (figure 11).

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bread and cereals Milk, cheese and eggs

Oil and fats Fruit

Vegetables Food


Figure 10. Food prices and its main categories, annual growth in percent

-4

1

6

11

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rent

Maintenance and furnishing

Water supply and other services related to housing

Electricity, gass and other

Figure 11. Housing, water and energy prices, annual growth in percent

Source: KAS and CBK calculations (2015

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.07

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Electricity, gas and other

Energy, Euro Cent/KWh (right axis)

Linear (Energy, Euro Cent/KWh (right axis))

source: KAS CBK calculations (2015)

Figure 12. Energy price index and the price for KWh

| 23


Price movement of the electricity subcategory, gas and other fuels is largely defined by the price

movement of energy which have higher weight within this subcategory. As shown in figure 12,

the price index of energy, which is characterized by significant seasonal changes (depending on

the summer and winter fee), is

characterized with an increasing trend.

The annual average price of services in

2014 marked a decline of 1.5 percent

compared to the increase of 0.4 percent

marked in the previous year. However,

within the services category were

recorded different price movements. The

highest price decline was marked by

educational services with 7.0 percent,

followed by the prices of transport and

communication services which marked a

decline of 2.1 and 1.0 percent,

respectively. Conversely, price increase

was marked by hotel services with 1.1 percent and health services with 0.2 percent (figure 13).

Regarding the real effective exchange rate (REER) of euro in Kosovo, against the currencies of

the trading partners, which is based on the consumer price index, during 2014 it appreciated by

0.2 percent? REER was appreciated by 0.3 percent against CEFTA countries remained almost

unchanged, which implies that Kosovo products may have decreased their competitiveness

against the CEFTA countries while against the EU countries the competitiveness of Kosovo

products remained the same.

4.2.1. Core inflation

Kosovo consumer basket is characterized by a very high share of products that have seasonal

price movements. These include food, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which account for

about half of the consumer basket. Prices of these products determined price movements over the

past years not only because of the high share that have in the consumer basket but also because

the movement of these prices has been more significant (table 1). This makes the impact of these

categories in total movement of prices to be higher than in other countries which have lower

share of these categories in the consumer basket. However, in recent years there has been a price

stability of these products but also a downward trend in the level of the share in the total

consumer basket.

Table 1. The breakdown of CPI


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Health Transport Communication

Recreation Education Hotels

Figura 13. Prices of services, annual growth in percent


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CPI 100.0% 9.1 -2.3 3.5 7.3 2.5 1.8 0.4

CPI breakdown:

Food 38.2% 16.0 -4.4 4.7 12.2 0.9 2.1 -0.2

Energy 7.6% 4.9 5.0 4.3 1.2 8.4 0.4 4.1

Other goods 21.6% 0.3 2.4 0.7 3.9 4.6 4.4 2.9

Services 32.7% 1.9 -2.5 1.9 3.2 1.5 1.5 -0.8

Base inflation, not including:

Food 61.9% 3.2 -0.6 1.6 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.5

Food and energy 54.3% 2.8 -1.0 1.3 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.2

Description Weights

2014

Annual average growth rate, in percent

| 24


Base inflation, which excludes categories

which are characterized by a more

pronounced change in prices, presents a

clearer picture regarding inflation in

Kosovo (figure 14). More specifically,

base inflation, which excludes food and

energy, had a rate of 0.2 percent in 2014

compared with a rate of 0.9 percent in

the previous year. Base inflation has

historically been lower than the overall

inflation, while in 2014 due to lower food

prices the difference between base

inflation and overall inflation is lower

(table 1).

4.2.2. Prices of tradable and non-

tradable goods and services3

Since the Kosovo’s economy is small and

dependent from import, it is obvious

that the tradable components of goods

and services have a high share in CPI

and consequently defines the general

level of price movements. The tradable

components comprise 81.9 percent of the

Kosovar consumer basket, whereas the

untradeable components (mainly

services) comprise about 18.1 percent of

the consumer basket (figure 15).

Prices of non-tradable goods and

services historically were more stable

compared to the tradable goods,

implying that the inflation rate

movement was mainly defined by the

price movements of tradable goods

(figure 16). In 2014, the prices of non-

tradable goods and services marked a

decline of 1.9 percent, compared to the

growth of 1.2 percent in the previous

year. Conversely, the prices of tradable

goods and services marked an increase

(0.4 percent), but the growth rate was

significantly lower compared to the

previous year (1.5 percent). The price decrease of tradable goods and services is mainly due to the

decline of import prices, while the price decline of non-tradable goods and services besides others

is attributed also to the slower economic activity in 2014 compared to the previous year. The

government’s decision to decrease the students’ fee in public universities but also the price

3 Tradable components are considered goods and services traded also in international markets, while untradeable are those goods and services which are only

domestically consumed and are not traded in international markets. Consequently, also the factors that affect the prices differ in tradable and non-tradable components.

Non-tradable components are affected by factors such as domestic supply and demand while tradable components besides the local supply and demand are also

affected by world prices which are formed by the international supply and demand.

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CPI

CPI except food

CPI except food, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco

Figure 14. General inflation and base inflation, annual growth in percent


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Non-tradable components Tradable components

Figure 15. The share of tradable and untradable components in CPI components


40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tradable components CPI total Non-tradable components

Figura 16. Total CPI, tradable and untradable components


| 25


decline of import indirectly, through the raw imported goods, may have had an impact in the

price decline of un-tradable goods.

4.2.3. Import and Producer prices

Price movements in Kosovo are very

similar to price movements in

international markets due to the high

dependence of the economy on imports.

This is confirmed also by the similar

behavior of the import price index with

the consumer price index (figure 17). The

average import price index in 2014,

decreased by 0.5 percent (0.2 percent

increase in 2013). Prices of textile

recorded the highest decline of 24.1

percent, followed by transport vehicles

with 7.4 percent, and food products with

6.7 percent. Also, mineral products

(mainly oil and its derivatives) which are

the main category of import price index

(about 20 percent of the total index)

declined by 6.9 percent compared with

the decline of 2.2 percent recorded in the

previous year. On the other hand, prices

of vegetable products and footwear

recorded the highest growth of 24.1 and

17.0 percent, respectively, followed by

base metals with 12.1 percent, then the

chemical industry products by 8.1

percent, etc.

Producer prices in 2014, marked an

increase of 1.6 percent (2.4 percent increase in 2013). This increase in producer prices was mostly

driven by the growth in producer prices of chemical products, which marked an increase of 39.9

percent, then the growth in producer prices of wood and wood products with 12.9 percent, the

production of textile with 5.3 percent, etc. The impact of the price increase of these categories in

total producer prices was affected somewhat by the decrease of production of electrical equipment

with 17.1 percent, followed by the decline in prices of extraction of metal with 15.2 percent, the

production of paper and paper products with 10.2 percent. Also prices of energy recorded a

decrease of 1.1 percent, which have the major share in the producer price index (26.2 percent).

4.3. Sectorial developments

Energy

The energy sector in 2014 was characterized by a weaker performance compared with the

previous year. Coal production and power generation in thermal power plants decreased in 2014

compared to the prior year, while it is worth mentioning that the production of energy in hydro

plants has increased. The amount of coal extracted from the mines, and constitutes the base

material for electricity production in the country is characterized by a decline of about 12

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumer prices Producer prices Import prices

Figure 17. Consumer, producer and import price indices

Source: KAS (2015)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Energy balance as percent of total energy consumption, GWh (right axis)

Energy consumption, GWh

Production of energy in termocentrals, GWh

Figure 18. Producer, consumer and energy balance (Giga watt per hour)

Source: KAS (2015)

| 26


percent. In 2014, with a decline of about

15 percent it is also characterized the

energy produced in thermal power

plants. The decline in energy production

in 2014 can be attributed to a mass

explosion which occurred in June 2014

in Kosovo A power plant. Electricity

production by Kosovo Energy

Corporation (KEC) in 2014 was reduced

to approximately 6 percent (figure 18).

During 2014, the value of the electricity

billed amounted to euro 219.3 million,

representing an annual growth of about

5 percent. The growth of electricity

consumption in 2014 was largely covered by imports, the value of which amounted to euro 45.5

million and recorded an annual growth of 49 percent. At the same time, export of electricity with

an amount of euro 14.9 million, was characterized by a decline of 34.5 percent. Sectors that

increased energy consumption in 2014 were the sectors of industry, transport and services, while

the household sector and the agriculture sector decreased energy consumption. As a result of

increased imports and declining exports of electricity, in 2014 Kosovo has realized negative

balance of energy of 400.3 GWh (positive balance of 335.1 GWh in 2013), resulting in a negative

balance of euro 29.6 million (euro 6.6 million 2013). During this period, energy exports had

dropped to a value of 474.9 GWh (856.9 GWh in 2013), while imports reached a level of 875.2

GWh (521.8 GWh in 2013).

Energy production share in the total production in the country continues to be low, representing

only 3 percent of GDP. According to economic sectors, energy consumption structure has not

changed from the previous period. The household sector and the services sector continue to

consume more electricity, since transportation, agriculture and industry consume mainly oil

products as energy products.

Level of network losses in the energy sector remains relatively high representing about 40

percent of total production in 2014. In 2014, losses in the net decreased, although as a share of

total generated energy losses in the

network are increased, mainly due to

lower production.

Transport4

While railway passenger transport in

Kosovo has been almost unchanged in

the recent years, railway transport of

goods has been more volatile. However,

during 2014 the number of passengers

who used railway transport and the

value of goods transported through the

local railway is characterized by a

4 In KAS publications on transport statistics, except railway and air transport, the data on road transport do not exist.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

De

c

Mar

Ju

n

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p

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c

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n

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p

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c

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p

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p

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c

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

De

c

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Houehold Consumerst 220-110 kv

Comercial GWh Industry GWh

Public enterprises and other GWh

Figure 19. Energy consumption by final consumer

Source: KAS (2015)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Number of flights Number of passangers, in thousands (right axis)

Figure 20. Air transport in Kosovo

Source: KAS (2015)

| 27


decline. The number of passengers who used the railway transport was 339 thousand or 8.1

percent less than in the previous year. On the other hand, the amount of goods transported by

railway in Kosovo in 2014 was 848 thousand tons or 6.2 percent less than in the previous year.

Also the air transport during 2014 is characterized by a decline in the number of passengers and

flights. The total number of passengers traveling by air transport was 1.4 million people, showing

a decrease of 13.8 percent compared with the previous year, while the number of 5,994 flights

conducted during 2014 was 17.9 percent lower compared with the previous year (figure 20).

Industry

The cycle of development in the

industrial sector in Kosovo, presented in

the form of index of general circulation

industry, is represented by activity in

the extractive industries, processing

industry, supply of electricity, gas,

steam and conditioning air and water

supply, management activities and

waste treatment.

In 2014, compared to the previous year,

industrial manufacturing in the country

appears to have increased its share in

the sector of processing industry sector

(7.3 percent), while the circulation index for the extractive industries, supply of electricity, gas,

steam and conditioning air and water supply, management activities and waste treatment has

decreased (8.4, 23.9 and 5.2 percent, respectively) (figure 21).

In 2014, with a growth were characterized the sectors with the activities of textile and the textile

articles processing, wood processing and wood articles processing, and processing of food

products, beverages and tobacco. The circulation increase in the sector of the processing industry

is also proved by the significant increase of the share of exports after processing to total exports

of the country. On the other hand, the reduction of the activity in the extractive industry, which

is mainly dominated by the mining

sector can be attributed to some extent

to the decline in the price of oil and

metals (especially lead and nickel) in the

last quarter of 2014 on international

markets.

4.3.1. Enterprise sector

Developments within the registry of

private businesses during 2014 were

characterized by a decline in the number

of new enterprises and the increase of

the number of closed enterprises. Total

number of new enterprises was 9.405 in 2014 compared to 9,421 as they were in 2013. The

number of businesses closed in 2014 amounted to 1,671 compared with 1,508 businesses closed as

they were in 2013 (figure 22). Enterprises closed in 2014 averaged 17.8 percent of total new

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Ma

r

Ju

n

Sep

De

c

Ma

r

jun

Sep

De

c

Ma

r

Jun

Sep

De

c

Ma

r

Ju

n

Sep

Dec

Ma

r

Ju

n

Sep

De

c

Ma

r

Jun

Sep

De

c

Ma

r

Ju

n

Sep

De

c

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New businessesClosed businessesThe ratio of new enterprises/closed enterprises (right axis)

Figure 22. Business registry, non-cummulative

Source: KAS (2015)

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012 2013 2014MiningProcessing industrySupply with electricity, gass, steamProduction and distribution of energy, gass etc.

Figure 21. Industrial production index

Source: KAS (2015)

| 28


enterprises, against 16.0 percent in the previous year. The ratio between new enterprises and

closed once in Kosovo continues to be more favorable than in other countries.

Regarding the structure of new enterprises, the trend continued to be relatively similar to

previous years. Commercial enterprises continue to dominate the structure of new enterprises

and represent about 30 percent of total newly registered enterprises. However, there is a more

pronounced growth of manufacturing enterprises, the share of which increased to 10.4 percent

from 9.3 percent as it was in 2013. With

increased share were characterized also

enterprises as hotels, from 9.7 percent to

11.0 percent of total enterprises (figure

23).

Regarding the size of enterprises, the

category of micro enterprises (1-9

employees) comprised about 99% of total

new enterprises registered in 2014, 0.9

percent consisted of small enterprises

(10-49 employees) and the remainder of

0.1 percent or about 8 companies were

medium and large enterprises. Compared

with the previous year, an increasing

number of enterprises registered under the category of small enterprise with 26 more

enterprises, while micro enterprises have declined by about 42 companies.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 -Q1

2012 -Q2

2012 -Q3

2012 -Q4

2013 -Q1

2013 -Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014 -Q1

2014 -Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Trade Hotels Transport Real estate

Figure 23. Structure of new enterprises

Source: KAS (2015)

| 29


5. Fiscal sector

In 2014, the fiscal sector was

characterized by a slight increase in

revenues and a similar level of

expenditures compared with the

previous year. General budget revenues5

increased by 1.5 percent and amounted

to euro 1.3 billion in 2014. On the other

hand, the total budget expenditures6

amounted to about euro 1.5 billion,

almost the same level with the previous

year (euro 1.5 billion 2013).

Consequently, during this period, the

Kosovo budget recorded a primary deficit

of about euro 131 million (2.4 percent of

GDP), compared to a deficit of euro 150

million recorded in the previous year (2.9

percent of GDP) (figure 24).

In 2014, Kosovo had the lowest tax

burden of economy in the region, since

the ratio of budget revenues to GDP was

24.2 percent compared with the average

of 37.0 percent in the region. In the same

period, the budget expenditures of 26.6

percent ratio of GDP was lower than the

average of 41.0 percent in the region. In

addition, Kosovo continues to have the

lowest level of the public debt compared

to other regional countries. While the

average public debt in SEE, in 2014, was

57.3 percent of GDP, whereas this ratio

in Kosovo was 10.6 percent (figure 25).

5.1. Budget revenues

Primary Budget revenues, in 2014,

amounted to gross euro 1.37 billion. If

euro 33.5 million were excluded of VAT

returns and other taxes from the Kosovo

Customs and Kosovo Tax

Administration, the primary budget

revenues would reach net euro 1.33

billion, representing an annual increase

of 1.5 percent. This higher level of revenue was reached despite the fact that in 2014 only 15.0

5 Within the budgetary income are not included the receipts from defined donor grants, domestic and external borrowings, privatisation proceeds.

6 Within the budget expenditures are not included payments from designated donor grants, debt payments, and the return of borrowings by the public enterprises is

treated as a reduction of budget expenditures.

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Albania Serbia Montenegro Bosnia andHer.

Macedonia Kosovo

General debt of government Expenditures Revenues Primary balance (right axis)

Figure 25. Fiscal key indicators of SEE as percetage to GDP, in 2014

Source: IMF for regional countries, MF and CBK calculations for Kosovo (2015)

-50

150

350

550

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Revenues Expenditures Primary deficit

Figure 24. Budget revenues and expenditures, in millions of euro

Source: MF and CBK calculations (2015)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014

Tax revenues Own resources Non-tax revenues Other

Figure 26. Structure of budget, in millions of euro


| 30


million revenues were received in the form of dividend from public enterprises, while in the

previous year were realized revenues of euro 43.0 million from the dividend. If the revenues from

the dividend were excluded, the budget revenues in 2014 would mark an increase of 3.8 percent.

Kosovo Budget revenues consist mainly

of tax revenues, which in 2014 had a

share of about 85.6 percent of total

budget revenues. Own revenues

constitute 7.4 percent of total revenues

(62 percent of the municipalities, while

the share of the central government

comprises 38 percent), non-tax revenues

comprise 3.5 percent of total revenues

and 3.5 percent are comprised of other

revenues. The growth of the budget

revenues in 2014 was realized despite

the lower collection of revenues in the

form of dividend from public enterprises

of only euro 15 million, while in the previous year euro 43.0 million were realized from the

dividend. If the income from the dividend were excluded, the budget revenues would mark an

increase of 3.8 percent in 2014.

Tax revenues marked an increase of 3.3 percent and amounted to euro 1.1 billion. Within tax

revenues, revenues from border taxes recorded an annual growth of 4.0 percent and reached a

gross value of euro 871.0 million. Net income, which excludes custom returns of euro 2.4 million

reached a value of euro 868.6 million. At the same time, the revenues collected from local taxes

amounted to gross euro 303.7 million. If the tax administration returns of euro 31.1 million were

excluded then net revenues from local taxes would mark an increase of 0.7 percent and would

reach a value of euro 272.6 million. Within budgetary revenues, own revenues at central and

local level rose by 3.4 percent, reaching a value of euro 98.2 million, while non-tax revenues were

higher for 8.0 percent and amounted to euro 46.7 million (figure 26).

In 2014, within local taxes, with an increase were characterized the tax on personal income and

the tax in individual businesses with 9.9 and 10.4 percent, respectively, while revenues from

VAT and tax on corporate income

marked a decline of 11.6 and 13.1

percent, respectively (figure 27).

Positive performance of border taxes

mainly reflects the growth of imports

during this period. Within border

revenues, the main category remains

VAT, with a share of 48.7 percent of

total border revenues. Revenues from

VAT, collected at the border, were

characterized by an increase of 2.9

percent and amounted to net euro 422.8

million in 2014 (figure 28). Revenues

from excise border, which in 2014 had a

share of 35 percent in total border revenues, increased by 6 percent and amounted to net euro

304 million. Customs tax revenues representing 14.5 percent of total border revenues reached net

euro 125.6 million in 2014 and recorded an annual growth of 5.4 percent.

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

2013 2014

Value added tax Tax on corporate income

Tax on personal icnome Tax on individual businesses

Figure 27. Net domestic revenues by main types of taxes, in millions of euro


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2013 2014

VAT Excise Custom

Figure 28. Net border revenues by type of taxes, inmillions of euro


| 31


5.2. Budget expenditures

The value of the total budget

expenditures amounted to euro 1.5

billion, which represents a level almost

equal to the previous year. Current

expenditures, which mainly consist of

wages and salaries, goods and services,

and subsidies and transfers amounted to

euro 1.1 billion, corresponding to an

annual growth of 11.9 percent. As a

result of the increase of salaries and

pensions has increased the share of

current expenditures within the total

expenditures, from 64.2 percent in 2013,

reaching 71.9 percent in 2014 (figure

29). Government expenditures on wages and salaries were characterized by an annual increase of

17.3 percent, reaching euro 485.2 million.

This increase in the category of wages and salaries has caused the share of this category to reach

33.2 percent of total expenditures in 2014 from 28.3 percent in the previous year. With a growth

were characterized also the category of subsidies and transfers, which recorded an annual growth

of 15.4 percent and reached a value of euro 361.2 million in 2014. The share of the category of

subsidies and transfers to total expenditures marked an increase of 3.3 percentage points and

has reached 24.7 percent of total expenditures. On the other hand, government expenditures on

goods and services had a value of euro 205.8 million, corresponding to an annual decline of 3.6

percent, which has led to the share of this category to reduce their share to total expenditures

from 14.6 percent in 2013 to 14.1 percent in 2014.

In 2014, government expenditures on capital investments recorded a value of euro 411.4 million,

representing an annual decline of 22.3 percent. The decline in capital investments is mainly

attributed to the reduction of the forecasted expenditures for public investments, as a result of

increased government current expenditures that have limited the scope for capital investments

but also due to the delay of the creation of institutions after the 8th of June 2014, a delay which

had an effect in the postponement of execution of capital projects. Capital expenditure which

historically have been the category with the highest share in total expenditures, in 2014, have

shifted in the second place following the category of wages and salaries. In other words, capital

investments have reduced share from 36.2 percent of total expenditures in 2013 to 28.1 percent

in 2014.

Regarding the execution of planned expenditures in 2014 compared to the previous year, it was

marked almost the same level of expenditures execution (91 percent of the annual plan). Wages

and salaries and subsidies and transfers marked a better level of performance compared to the

plan, while capital expenditures were realized in the amount of 80.0 percent of the plan

compared with 84.4 percent rate of implementation in the previous year.

5.3. Public debt

At the end of 2014, the stock of public debt of the government reached a value of euro 582.9

million or 10.6 percent of GDP compared with euro 476.3 million or 9.1 percent of GDP at the end

of 2013 (figure 30). This level of public debt makes Kosovo the country with the lowest public

debt compared with other regional countries. In 2014, the average public debt in the SEE

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2013 2014

Goods and services Subsidies and transfers

Wages and salaries Capital expenditures

Figure 29. Structure of budget expenditures, in millions of euro


| 32


countries was around 57.3 percent of GDP, while Kosovo had a level of 10.6 percent.

Furthermore, public debt to GDP in the region grew by an average of 2.1 percentage points in

2014, while in Kosovo the growth of public debt to GDP was slower, with only 1.5 percentage

points.

Total public debt consists of euro 326.3

million international debt while the

remainder of euro 256.5 million accounts

for the domestic debt. Despite the fact

that public debt as a percentage of GDP

is low, in the last two years it has

marked a considerable increase,

reflecting the growing need for financing

the budget deficit. In 2014 public debt

marked an increase of 22.4 percent

compared to the previous year. As shown

in figure 30, the increase of the public

debt is mainly attributed to the domestic

debt which increased by 68.2 percent

and reached euro 256.5 million, while international public debt remained almost unchanged.

Regarding the domestic public debt, it all belongs to the central level, while municipal level has

not yet begun such a process. As regards the instruments7, the domestic public debt at the end of

2014 was mainly in Treasury bills (80 percent) and the remaining 20 percent is in bonds. 12-

month treasury bills represent the main category with about 54 percent of total domestic public

debt, followed by 6-month treasury bills (22 percent), and 3-month treasury bills (4 percent).

7 Financial instruments are allocated as money market instruments and capital market. This division is done depending on the duration of certain maturity instruments.

The money market incudes short-term financial instruments (treasury bills), while capital markets includes long-term ones (treasury bills).

8.49.1

10.6

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014

Local debt International debt Public debt (% of GDP)

Figure 30. Public debt, in millions of euro

Source: MF (2015)

| 33


6. Financial system

In 2014, the degree of financial intermediation, namely the ratio of financial system assets to

GDP deepened, reaching 81.3 percent

(79.4 percent in 2013). Total assets of

the financial system reached a value of

euro 4.5 billion in 2014, marking an

annual increase of 7.4 percent, an

increase that is mainly attributed to the

growth of assets of commercial banks

and pension funds, while the insurance

sector and the microfinance sector had

small contribution respectively neutral

to the overall growth of assets.

Within the banking sector, loans

continue to be the main category with a

share of 59.1 percent of total assets of the sector in 2014. The dynamics of lending activity in the

country is estimated to have been at the highest level in the three previous years. In 2014, the

value of total loans amounted to euro 1.9 billion, representing an annual increase of 4.2 percent

(2.4 percent in 2013) (figure 31). The trend of accelerated lending growth that characterized 2014

and the first months of 2015 is mainly attributed to the eased credit supply of the banks, while

the demand is reported to have been lower by large enterprises, but higher by small and medium

enterprises (SMEs) and households. Based on the Bank Lending Survey, the main factors that

explain the eased policy of the bank lending were the satisfactory liquidity position of commercial

banks, competition in the financial system and banks' expectations regarding economic

developments in the country. Demand for loans was reported to have grown by SMEs and

households, while there was a decline in demand for loans by large enterprises. The increased

demand for loans, especially from households, was in line with the growth of domestic

consumption during this period, which can be driven by the growth of wages and salaries for civil

servants in April 2014, developments in real estate and the continuous decline of interest rates

on loans.

However, despite the accelerated pace of credit growth in 2014, the level of financial

intermediation of the economy should be strengthened further, as lending to GDP ratio remains

at the lowest level in the region. The ratio of the banking sector loans to the private sector, in

Kosovo, to GDP, in 2014, was about 34 percent, while the average in the region was about 47

percent. This suggests that, in relation to the size of the economy, there is a significant

possibility for further expansion of credit activity of the banking sector. As the structure of loans

of the banking sector continues to be dominated by loans to the trade sector, the increase of the

financial support for enterprises operating in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining,

etc., would affect the growth of the economic activity of these sectors and consequently the

growth of the overall economic activity in the country. The increased support for sectors less

credited by the banking sector in the country, apart that will affect credit growth to GDP ratio

would also diversify the credit portfolio thus affecting the sectorial risk reduction.

Within the structure of loans, there is a higher increase in the support of SMEs through more

eased credit standards, especially in sectors which previously were less credited as agriculture

and manufacturing. Also, in 2014 there was an increase in long-term lending, which indicates a

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Growth rate of total loansGrowth rate of loans to enterprisesGrowth rate of loans to households

Figure 31. Growth rate of loans by sectors, in percent

Source: CBK (2015)

| 34


gradual shift from the conservative approach of banks towards the alternatives that allow larger

expansion of their business.

Economic sectors that were

characterized by more accelerated

growth of lending in 2014 were

manufacturing (13.1 percent),

agriculture (7.9 percent) and trade

sector (3.6 percent) (figure 32). The

growth of lending to these three sectors

of the economy mainly reflects the

decline in the cost of funding during this

period. At the same period, the

reduction of financial support for sectors

like construction (annual decline of 12.2

percent), energy (annual decline of 17.8

percent) and mining (a decline of 2.2

percent) was mainly due to the decline,

namely the slowdown in activity in the

respective sectors.

The main source of funding for the

banking sector remains deposits, which

in 2014 recorded a growth of 3.6 percent.

Deposits of the banking sector in the

country reached a value of euro 2.53

billion in 2014 and represented 79.6

percent of total liabilities of the sector.

In 2014, deposits were characterized by

slower growth trend, which is mainly

due to the sharp decline in the interest

rate on deposits during this period. The slowdown in deposit growth could have been affected by

the increase of migration from Kosovo in the last months of 2014.

The activity of the banking sector in

2014 was characterized by a significant

decline of interest rates on loans and

deposits. The average interest rate on

loans decreased to 9.2 percent in 2014

from 11.1 percent in 2013 (figure 33),

thus creating better opportunities for

the growth in consumption and

investments. The reduction of the

interest rate on loans primarily reflects

the decrease in the interest rate on

deposits during this period, but also the

increase of competitive pressures in the

banking market in the country.

The average interest rate on deposits in 2014 decreased to 1.1 percent from 2.4 percent in 2013, a

decline which is mainly attributed to the presence of sufficient liquidity in the banking sector.

Consequently, the interest rate spread on loans and deposits decreased to 8.1 percentage points

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Agriculture Industry, energy, construction

Trade Other services

Figure 32. Growth trend of loans by economic sectors, in percent

Source: CBK (2014)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Interest rate on loansInterest rate on depositsInterest rate spread on deposits and loans

Figura 33. Annual interest rate average, in percent

Source: CBK (2015)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

In m

illio

ns o

f e

uro

Profit ROAA (right axis) ROAE (right axis)

Figure 34. Profitability indicators

Source: CBK (2015)

| 35


in 2014, from 8.7 pp as it was in 2013. In 2014, the banking sector's financial performance

improved significantly, recording net profit in the amount of euro 60.1 million, while net profit

recorded in 2013 was euro 26.0 million (figure 34). The profit growth of the banking sector in

2014 was as a result of the reduction of expenditures, particularly for loan loss provisions (cover

potential loan losses) and interest expenditures on deposits, while the banking sector's revenues

declined slightly.

Kosovo’s banking sector continues to

have a high level of sustainability,

expressed in good management of

banking risks. In 2014, key liquidity

indicators were characterized by

increase, which led to an improvement

of the liquidity position of the banking

sector. Also, the banking sector which is

characterized consistently with the high

level of capitalization, exceeding the

minimum regulatory requirements.

During 2014, the exposure of the

banking sector to credit risk has shown

a downward trend, where the non-

performing loans (NPL) to total loans ratio decreased to 8.3 percent from 8.7 percent in December

2013 (figure 35). To the decline of the nonperforming loans ratio has contributed the

improvement of the loan portfolio quality (which is reflected by the slower annual growth rate of

the NPL value) as well as the more rapid growth of the stock of loans in 2014.

4.3%

5.9%

5.8%

7.5%

8.7% 8.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NPL (in millions of euro) NPL / total loans (in percent)

Figure 35. NPL and provisions

Source: CBK (2015)

| 36


7. External sector

The recovery of the external demand especially in the Western Balkan countries and in some of

the euro area countries is reflected in the growth of Kosovo’s exports in 2014 compared to the

previous year. However, the growth of domestic demand in the country has led to the increase of

the value of total imports, thus contributing to the deterioration of the position of net exports in

the country. Balance of payments in Kosovo was characterized by a deficit growth of the current

and capital account. On the other hand, the financial account recorded a roughly similar balance

to the previous year.

7.1 Current and capital account

One of the main problems of Kosovo's

economy remains the high level of trade

deficit. In order to improve the trade

balance it is required a further increase

of manufacturing capacity in the country

and the increase in competitiveness of

domestic products both domestically and

in foreign markets, as a way to improve

the net export position.

The dynamics of the current account

developments in Kosovo continues to be

determined largely by developments in

the country’s trade balance. In 2014, the

position of the current account in Kosovo deteriorated due to higher deficit in trade of goods,

while the positive balance in services trade and categories as primary and secondary income

continue to contribute to the narrowing of this deficit (figure 36). The deficit of euro 415.8 million

of the current and capital account has increased to 7.6 percent of GDP from 5.7 percent as it was

in the previous year. The increase of the current account deficit during this period was mainly

due to the increase in the trade deficit, as well as to the reduction of the positive balance of the

primary and secondary income. 8

The balance of capital account9 was reduced to euro 21.2 million in 2014, from euro 34.7 million

as in the previous year, which is attributed to the decrease of grants for capital investments

during this period.

Goods and services

Kosovo’s economy was characterized by increased commercial activity in 2014, representing an

increase of the value of total exports and imports. Reaching the value of euro 1.7 billion (about 31

percent of GDP), the trade deficit in goods and services was 2.3 percent higher in 2014 compared

to the previous year. Despite the increase in exports of goods, their base which is still low

compared to the value of imports of goods has led to the growth of the trade deficit. On the other

hand, the services account was characterized by an increase of the positive balance in 2014,

mainly as a result of the increased exports of services during this period, which also have the

highest value compared to imported services. In 2014, the level of the trade openness, namely the

8 Within the Balance of Payments of Kosovo, the primary income account includes the categories “Compensation of employees” and “Income from investments”. The

secondary income account is comprised of “Transfers for the Government” and “Private Transfers - which are dominated by remittances”. 9 The capital account represents all transactions which include receipts or payments of (1) capital transfers and (2) transactions of non-produced assets - non-financial

assets (such as patents and copyrights).

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Currentaccount

Goods Services Primaryincome

Secondaryincome

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 36. Balance of current account, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 37


ratio of commercial activity in Kosovo to GDP reached about 71 percent, from 66 percent in the

previous year.

Goods

The deficit of the goods account reached

the value of euro 2.1 billion in 2014,

representing an annual increase of 3.2

percent (figure 37). The higher growth

of goods exports compared to imports

has affected the coverage ratio of

imports by exports to increase to 12.8

percent in 2014, from 12.0 percent in

the previous year.

In 2014, total exports reached a value of

euro 324.5 million, which represents an

annual increase of 10.4 percent. The

increase of the value of goods exports in

2014 is attributed mainly to the growth

of total demand in the region and in the

EU countries, and the price increase in

international markets, of one of basic

metals that Kosovo exports (nickel)

(figure 38) as well as the accelerated

activity in some sectors of the economy

during this period. The share of

Kosovo's exports to total GDP continued

to remain low by only about 6.1 percent

in 2014.

The structure of Kosovo’s exports continues to be dominated by base metals category, which in

2014 increased its share to total exports to 52 percent from 49 percent as it was in the previous

year (figure 39). The value of total exports of base metals in 2014 amounted to euro 167.4 million

from euro 143.9 million in 2013. The increase in exports of these goods was mainly a result of

increased nickel metal prices in international markets during this period. With the increase in

the value of exports were characterized also agricultural products, beverages and tobacco, textile

products, exports of machinery, mechanical and electrical equipment and chemical products

exports. Exports growth of these categories can be attributed to some extent to the increased

activity in the processing industry in the reporting period. On the other hand, exports of mineral

products, which have a share of 13.8 percent of total exports of the country was characterized by

a decline of the value to euro 44.7 million, in 2014, from euro 46.3 million as they were in 2013.

The decline in value of exports of mineral products, in 2014, can be attributed mainly to the

decline in manufacturing and, consequently, to the decline of export of electricity in the reporting

period.

The value of total goods imported in Kosovo in 2014 was euro 2.5 billion (46 percent of GDP),

which represents an annual increase of 3.6 percent. The trend of the increased value of total

imports in 2014 was negatively affected by the prices decline of major imported products, namely

mineral products, food products and some metals that Kosovo imports (figure 40).

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Trade balance Exports Imports

Figure 37. Imports, exports and trade balance, non-cummulative in millions of euro

Source: KAS (2015)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ma

rJun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Ma

rJun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

c

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports (right axis) Price index of metal

Figure 38. Total exports (non-cummulative) and international prices of metals

Source: IMF (2015) and KAS (2015)

| 38


The value of imports of mineral

products, which at the same time have

the highest share in total imports in the

country (18.4 percent in 2014) and which

mainly are dominated by oil, decreased

during this period to euro 467.8 million

from euro 480.6 million as it was in 2013

(figure 41). By a decline was

characterized also the total value of

imports of base metals (euro 228 million

in 2014 from euro 247.2 million in 2013),

a decline that is mainly attributed to the

price decrease of metals (lead, iron and

zinc) in this period.

On the other hand, the increased value

of imports of chemical products, imports

of vehicles, machinery, mechanical

equipment and imports of textile

products in 2014 is attributed to the

increased activity in the processing

industry in the reporting period.

Within the structure of imports, the

share of capital goods of 8.9 percent

remains low, although in 2014 was

characterized by an annual increase of

12.9 percent. In 2014, the value of

imports of intermediate goods marked a

decrease of 2.3 percent compared to the

previous year, while the value of imports

of consumer goods during this period

recorded an increase of 12.1 percent.

Intermediate goods continue to have the

highest share within the total structure

of goods imported into the country (about

50 percent), while consumer goods have

a share of about 35 percent. The

remainder share of around 6 percent

belongs to uncategorized imported goods.

Kosovo’s main trading partners in 2014

were the EU countries and the Western

Balkans. Imports originating from the EU represent 43 percent of total imports in Kosovo. In

2014, most of the imports came from Germany, Italy and Greece. In the context of other

European countries and countries from Asia, Kosovo imports significant quantities of goods from

Turkey and China. Whereas, within the region countries, the majority of imports come from

Serbia, Albania and Macedonia.

On the other hand, exports from Kosovo to EU countries account for approximately 30 percent of

total exports and are concentrated mainly to Italy and followed by exports to Germany.

Regarding the countries of the region, Kosovo continues to export more to Albania, Serbia and

2013

Base metals

Mineral products

Base metals

Agricultural products

Production of plastic and rubber

Machinery, mechanic and electric equipment

Textile products

2014

Base metals

Mineral products

Base metals


Production of plastic and rubber

Machinery, mechanic and electric equipment

Textile products

Figure 39. Structure of exports by category, in percent

Source: KAS (2015)

2013


Beverages and tobacco

Mineral products

Chemical products

Products of plastic and rubber

Base metals

2014


Beverages and tobacco

Mineral products

Chemical products

Products of plastic and rubber

Base metals

Machinery, electrical and mechanical equipment

Transport means

Figure 40. Structure of imports by category, in percent

Source: KAS (2015)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

Ma

rJun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

cM

ar

Jun

Sep

De

c

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Imports (mln EUR)Crude Oil (eur/barrel, right axis)International price index of food (right axis)

Figure 41. Total imports (non-cummulative) and international prices of oil and food

Source: KAS (2015) and IFS and FAOUN

| 39


Macedonia. A significant share of Kosovo’s exports is also concentrated to China, India and

Turkey (figure 42).

As in the previous periods, Kosovo continues to import mineral products mainly from Italy and

Greece, while from Germany imports machinery, mechanical and electrical equipment, transport

equipment, plastic products, tobacco etc. By trading partners of the region, namely from Serbia

and Macedonia, Kosovo mainly imports mineral products, mechanical and electrical equipment,

ceramic products, beverages and food

products, etc. From other European

countries and Asia, particularly from

Turkey and China, imports consist

mainly of iron and steel products,

mechanical and electrical products,

ceramics, textile, etc. Regarding exports,

to Albania continues to be exported

mainly iron and steel and articles

thereof, base metals, plastic products,

beverages, mineral products, etc. To

Montenegro and Macedonia, Kosovo

exports mainly base metals, tobacco,

textile products, articles of paper, stone

and ceramic items, etc.

Services

The balance of services in 2014 had a

value of euro 335.9 million, representing

an increase of 7.6 percent compared

with the balance recorded in the

previous year. The growth of the balance

of the services account in this period

mainly reflects the significant increase

in revenues from sales of services to

non-residents, while with the growth

were characterized also the payments of

Kosovar residents to non-residents. The

export of services amounted to euro

767.2 million, representing an increase

of 21.3 percent compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, imports of services amounted to

euro 431.3 million, representing an increase of 34.6 percent in expenditures compared to the

previous year.

Within the balance of services the travel category continues to be the main category (figure 43).

In 2014, the balance of travel services account amounted to euro 378.8 million, which compared

with the previous year, represents an annual increase of 24.5 percent. Despite the fact that the

travel services were characterized by an increase in export and import, the higher share of

exports in the travel category had an impact in the growth of the overall balance of travel

services. Revenues from travel services amounted to euro 504.2 million, representing an annual

increase of 24.6 percent, and primarily account for expenditures of non-residents during their

stay in Kosovo. In the same period, payments for travel services to residents of Kosovo reached a

value of euro 125.5 million, representing an annual increase of 24.8 percent.

Exports

Italy GermanyAlbania SerbiaMacedonia TurkeyChina India

Imports

Germany Italy Greece

Serbia Albania Macedonia

Turkey China

Figura 42. Structure of exports and imports by countries, in percent

Source: KAS (2015)

Figure 43. Structure of net exports of services, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Goods and government services Tekchnology and communication

Constructioin Travel

Transport Maintanance and repairment

Goods processing Balance

| 40


In 2014, computer services, information and telecommunication were characterized by a

reduction of the balance to euro 19.5 million compared with euro 32.1 million in 2013. The

balance of this category was reduced mainly due to the reduction of the activity of the

communication companies in the economy of Kosovo, which may have resulted from the

continuous advancement of the technology in the context of new products offered as free of

charge. Also, with a lower balance was characterized services category of goods and government

services, which in 2014 had a value of euro 14.1 million (euro 23.2 million in 2013). The balance

of the government services decreased mainly due to the continuous reduction of the international

presence in Kosovo, while at the same time payments for Kosovo residents serving in diplomatic

missions abroad increased.

Within the balance of services, services realized for processing goods amounted to euro 3.8

million in 2014, representing a slight increase compared with the previous year when these

services amounted to euro 3.7 million.

Primary income

The primary income account in 2014

had a positive balance of euro 113.8

million, which is 6.4 percent lower

compared with the balance of the

previous year. In 2014, receipts within

the income account declined to euro

215.8 million, representing an annual

decline of 5.1 percent. On the other

hand, payments declined by 3.7 percent,

reaching a value of euro 102.0 million.

The reduction of the positive balance in

the primary income account was

primarily a result of increased payments

and the reduction of receipts within the employees compensation account (figure 44). Proceeds

from the compensation of employees, which mainly consist of the income of seasonal employees

abroad and Kosovar workers in Afghanistan and Iraq, are the largest category within receipt of

the primary income account. In 2014, the income from the compensation of employees reached a

value of euro 206.5 million (euro 223.2 million in 2013). At the same time, payments for

compensation of employees which include non-resident employees in Kosovo for a period less

than one year amounted to euro 6.1 million, compared to euro 4.3 million as they were in 2013.

Income from investments abroad had a negative balance of euro 85.9 million (euro 97.4 million in

2013). Receipts under investment income increased to 8.0 million in 2014 (euro 4.3 million in

2013), while payments declined to euro 93.9 million (euro 101.6 million in 2013). Receipts under

the account of investment income consist primarily of revenues realized from investments of local

institutions in foreign markets, while payments consist primarily of investment income realized

by the foreign companies operating in Kosovo. The increase of receipts from investments, in the

reporting period, mainly is attributed to increased income from investments of the CBK and

commercial banks in foreign markets, which mainly consist of investments in securities.

Meanwhile, the decline in payments under investment income in 2014 primarily resulted from

the decline in interest payments namely of the investment portfolio and other investments.

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Compansation of employees Investment income Primary income (net)

Figure 44. Primary income, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 41


Secondary income

In 2014, the secondary income account

reached the value of euro 1.2 billion,

representing an annual decline of 4.1

percent (figure 45). The structure of

secondary income continues to be

dominated by transfers from the private

sector (financial corporations,

nonfinancial corporations, households,

etc.), which represented 75.1 percent of

total secondary income, while the

remainder of 24.9 percent consisted of

government transfers. The reduction of

the secondary income balance, during

2014, was a result of the reduced

revenues within the government transfers.

The balance of the government transfers

(donors transfer, transfers of EULEX

and UNMIK) decreased to euro 291.9

million compared with euro 369.7

million as it was in 2013, mainly due to

the decrease of donations.

Remittances, as the category which

dominates 71.0 percent of total transfers

of the private sector was characterized

by significant growth in 2014.

Remittances received in Kosovo reached

a value of euro 693.7 million,

representing an annual increase of 11.7

percent (figure 46). Consequently, remittances as one of the most stable sources of financing the

household consumption in Kosovo, represent an important category that contributes to the

reduction of the current account deficit.

Remittances received in Kosovo come mainly from Germany and Switzerland, the two places

from where are sent 36.4 and 22.5 percent, respectively, of the total remittances. A significant

share of remittances is sent also from Italy and Austria, reaching 5.0 and 3.8 percent of total

remittances received in Kosovo. Regarding the transferring channels of remittances, about 25.3

percent are transferred through the banking system, while 39.3 percent are transferred through

money transferring agencies. The remainder of remittances is transferred through other

channels including informal channels. On the other hand, remittances of non-residents in Kosovo

towards other countries recorded a value of euro 68.8 million in 2014, representing a decrease of

9.1 percent compared with the previous year.

7.2. Financial account

Financial account in 2014 registered a negative balance of euro 145.110 million compared with a

negative balance of euro 132.2 million in 2013. Assets increased by only euro 90.4 million, while

in 2013 had increased by euro 217.2 million. Liabilities marked an increase of euro 235.4 million

10

Negative balance of the financial account implies more investments realized in Kosovo by non-residents compared to investments of Kosovo residents abroad.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Other sectors (receipts) Other sectors (payments)

Secondary income (net)

Figure 45. Secondary income, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

0.1%

3.6%2.5%

11.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014

560.0

570.0

580.0

590.0

600.0

610.0

620.0

630.0

Remittances in millions of euro (right axis)

Annual change, in percent

Figure 46. Remittances receipts

Source: CBK (2015)

| 42


which is significantly lower compared with the growth of euro 349.4 million recorded in the

previous year. Within assets the main category were other investments (mainly deposits) outside

Kosovo's economy, while concerning liabilities the main category continues to be the category of

foreign direct investments (table 2).

Table 2. Financial account in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

Foreign Direct Investment

The balance of direct investment

measured as the difference between FDI

in Kosovo and Kosovo residents

investments in other countries, in 2014,

was euro 123.8 million or 50.5 percent

lower than in the previous year. Foreign

Direct Investments (FDI) received in

Kosovo in 2014 reached a value of euro

151.2 million, or almost half less than in

2013 (figure 47). This significantly lower

value of FDI in 2014 was a result of

several factors. Besides the lower inflow

of FDI also the distribution of the

superdividend11, the sale of shares of

some of the foreign companies operating in Kosovo to Kosovo residents, and the higher return of

loans from investment companies have contributed to the FDI decline. Also, direct investments of

Kosovo residents in other countries were lower compared with the same period of the previous

year and reached a value of euro 27.3 million (euro 30.0 million in 2013). Direct investments of

Kosovo residents outside Kosovo's economy are primarily capital investments, which in most

cases consist of the purchase of real estate.

FDI in Kosovo were concentrated in sectors of the economy like real estate with euro 142.1

million from euro 151.2 million of total FDI realized in Kosovo in 2014, financial services with

euro 41.9 million, energy euro 13.4 million, trade with euro 8.4 million. As shown in figure 48,

the year 2014 was characterized by changes in terms of the FDI structure by sectors.

11

The superdividend implies the dividend which is higher than the company’s profits. The distribution of the superdividend has an effect on the decrease of the share

capital, representing a reduction of FDI.

Description 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -275.8 -377.5 -141.0 -132.2 -145.1

Assets 405.6 83.7 316.6 217.2 90.4

Foreign Direct Investments (outgoing) 37.4 5.5 15.8 30.0 27.3

Portfolio investments 48.6 57.8 185.7 139.3 13.3

Other investments 266.2 81.7 -146.3 83.5 106.8

Reserve assets 53.4 -61.2 261.4 -35.7 -57.0

Liabilities 681.4 461.2 457.6 349.4 235.4

Foreign Direct Investments (incoming) 368.5 384.4 229.1 280.2 151.3

Portfolio investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other investments 312.9 76.8 228.5 69.1 84.2

368.5384.4

229.1

280.2

151.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: CBK (2015)

Figure 47. Foreign Direct Investments, in millions of euro

| 43


The value of investments in real estate

has steadily increased (4.5 percent

increase in 2014) while the financial

sector, which in previous years has

declined, in 2014 increased significantly.

In 2014, sectors such as industry,

construction and transport and

communications have been

characterized by withdrawals of capital

primarily due to the purchase of several

foreign companies by local owners but

also because of the superdividend

distribution of some foreign companies.

Regarding the form of investments, FDI received in Kosovo, 77.1 percent were in the form of

share capital and the rest (22.9 percent) in debt instruments (loans between enterprises). As seen

in figure 49 both these categories have significantly declined, but the decline was higher in debt

instruments. Specifically, investments in share capital decreased from euro 176.0 million as they

were in 2013 to euro 116.6 million in

2014, while inter-company loans were

reduced to euro 34.6 million from euro

104.2 million as they were in the

previous year.

Regarding the origin of FDI, Switzerland

represents the country of origin with the

most FDI in 2014 (euro 38.2 million),

followed by Austria with euro 30.3

million, Germany with euro 29.4 million,

Albania with euro 20.4 million, Turkey

euro 20 million, etc. While investments

from Austria and Germany were higher

by euro 19.6 million and euro 7.8 million

compared to the previous year, investments from Turkey and Switzerland were lower by euro

68.6 million and euro 3.5 million compared to the previous year.

Portfolio Investments, other

investments and reserve assets

Portfolio investments abroad in 2014

amounted to euro 13.3 million while in

the previous year had recorded a value

of euro 139.3 million. The majority of the

portfolio investments consist of

investments in pension funds, while the

rest belongs to the Central Bank and

commercial banks. While in 2013 there

were significant investments by the

Central Bank and commercial banks in

the debt securities, which are considered to have a low level of risk, in 2014 due to perceptions of

-29.7

0.4

30.4

60.4

90.4

120.4

150.4

Re

al e

sta

te

Fin

an

cia

l se

rvic

es

En

erg

y

Tra

de

serv

ices

Tra

nsp

ort

a

nd

co

mm

un

ica

tio

n

Co

nstr

uctio

n

Ind

ustr

y

2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 48. FDI by mains economic sectors, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Switzerland Austria Germany Albania Turkey USA

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 50. FDI by main countries, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

331.1 345.2

202.7176.0

116.6

37.439.2

26.4104.2

34.6

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Capital and shares fund investments Debt instruments

Figure 49. Foreign direct investments by form of investments, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 44


improvements in the economic activity in the developed countries, about euro 294.9 million were

displaced from investments in debt

securities into investments in equity

securities. To investments of euro 294.9

million was added euro 13.3 million

additional capital invested in equity

securities.

Other investments, which consist

primarily of deposits and loans,

increased their assets value for euro

106.8 million. This increase in assets

within other investments is attributed to

the increase of deposits, which in 2014

marked an increase of euro 157.4

million. On the other hand, bank loans to non-residents decreased by euro 50.6 million. Within

other investments, liabilities increased by euro 84.2 million. This increase in liabilities was

mainly due to the increase of liabilities in the form of commercial loans, which increased by euro

37.9 million, but also liabilities in the form of deposits of non-residents in commercial banks in

Kosovo which marked an increase of euro 37.1 million. As shown in figure 51, the increase of

commercial loans has very high correlation with the growth of imports.

Reserve assets, which are invested mainly in money market instruments and deposits, in 2014

marked a decrease of euro 57.0 million. However, given the fact that Kosovo uses the Euro as its

official currency, which is acceptable in any international transaction, may be considered that

reserve assets in Kosovo have no significant importance in comparison with most other countries.

7.3. International investment position

The net International Investment

Position (IIP) 12 at the end of 2014 was

positive and had a value of euro 297.3

million (figure 52). The positive balance

of IIP has followed an upward trend

since 2011, where as a percentage of

GDP from 2.8 percent in 2011 reached

5.4 percent in 2014.

Total assets, at the end of 2014,

amounted to euro 4.3 billion (annual

growth of 4.2 percent). Assets growth

was mostly contributed by other

investments (mainly deposits), which

increased by 6.0 percent and portfolio investments, which marked an increase of 6.9 percent.

Portfolio investments, which have a significant share in the stock of assets abroad (29.8 percent)

are invested mainly in shares in the capital markets (80.4 percent), while the rest (19.6 percent)

in debt securities. The value of the stock of liabilities at the end of 2014 amounted to euro 4.0

billion (6.4 percent more than in 2013). Liabilities increased mostly driven by the growth of the

12

International Investments Position represents the position at the end of a certain period of time of the external financial assets and liabilities. The position at the end of

the period is a result of all transactions from the past, including corrections due to exchange rate movements in order to calculate the value of financial assets/liabilities at

the reporting date or changes in the market price. Positive balance of the IIP implies that assets invested abroad are higher than the value of assets invested by other

countries in Kosovo.

-100

-50

0

50

100

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Imports Trade loans (right axis)

Source: CBK (2015)

Figure 51. Trade loans and imports, in millions of euro

3.3 3.3 3.7

4.1 4.3

-2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -3.7 -4.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total liabilities Total assets Net IIP

Figure 52. International investment position, in billions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 45


FDI stock, which represents a favorable structural feature of liabilities because FDI (excluding

intercompany loans) are not included

within the debt. FDI account for about

74.4 percent of total liabilities and other

investments (mainly deposits and loans)

have a share of 25.6 percent in total

liabilities.

The balance of portfolio investments and

other investments recorded an annual

growth of 6.9 and 2.2 percent,

respectively, in 2014. On the other

hand, the balance of direct investments

continued to be negative (more FDI

were invested in Kosovo by non-

residents compared to FDI that have Kosovo residents invested abroad) and marked an annual

increase of 4.4 percent. The stock of total FDIs realized in Kosovo amounted to euro 3.0 billion at

the end of 2014 which is 5.1 percent higher than the stock of FDI at the end of 2013. An increase

was also marked by the stock of direct investments realized out of the Kosovo’s economy by

Kosovo residents, which recorded an annual growth of 18.4 percent and reached a value of euro

174.6 million.

Regarding the institutional sectors, the Central Bank and commercial banks have consistently

had positive net international investment position (1.2 billion or 481.6 million euro at the end of

2014), while other sectors13 and the government have consistently had a negative balance (euro

1.1 billion and euro 326.4 million, respectively) (figure 53).

7.4. External debt

Kosovo’s external debt, which includes

the external debt of the private and

public debt14 at the end of 2014

amounted to euro 1.7 billion, which is

8.0 percent higher than at the end of

2013. As a percentage of GDP, the gross

external debt amounted to 31.7 percent

(figure 54). Public external debt has a

low share in the total gross external

debt, which reflects the low level of total

public debt in Kosovo compared to other

regional countries. Public external debt

at the end of 2014 had a value of euro 392.8 million or 22.6 percent of gross external debt. The

majority of the external debt consists of intercompany loans (figure 55). Foreign companies

operating in Kosovo owe the external sector euro 720.0 million or 41.4 percent of total external

debt.

A considerable share in the total external debt of Kosovo is comprised of other sectors (euro

390.1 million or 22.5 percent of total external debt). Government external debt in the amount of

euro 326.4 million is largely inherited debt implying that it is long-term debt and accounts for

18.8 percent of total gross external debt. About 57.1 percent of total public debt is expected to be

13

Within other sectors are included: pension funds, financial auxiliaries, insurance companies, non-governmental organizations, private companies, and individuals. 14

The public debt includes government and the central bank debt, while private debt is comprised of intercompany loans, banking system, and other sectors.

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Government Other sectors Banks Monetary authority

Figure 53. Net IIP by institutional sectors, in billions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

31.2

29.7 30.0

30.2

31.7

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Private Public Total debt (% of GDP, right axis)

Figure 54. Gross external debt, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 46


paid in the long term period (over 5 years), 35.2 percent in the medium term (1 to 5 years) and

only 7.7 percent in the short term (under one year). The stock of gross external debt of the

banking system at the end of 2014 was euro 234.2 million or 13.5 percent of total external debt.

This is a short-term debt and most of it consists of non-resident deposits. With the lowest share

to total external debt is the Central

Bank (euro 66.3 million or 3.8 percent of

total external debt).

The Central Bank liabilities belong

primarily to allocations of Special

Drawing Rights of the IMF. Regarding

creditors, total external debt of euro 1.7

billion belongs to IMF with 10.2 percent,

to the World Bank 12.1 percent and

other creditors (more than half of the

debt to other creditors is inter-company

borrowings) with 77.7 percent. External

sector debt to the economy of Kosovo, at

the end of 2014, amounted to euro 3.1

billion. These assets primarily are funds invested abroad as the privatization assets and Kosovo

Pension Savings Fund, which are mainly invested in deposits with 84.8 percent, followed by

funds invested in debt securities with 10.3 percent and loans which have a share of 2.4 percent.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Monetary authorityBankaing sectorLoansOther sectorsDirect investments- intercomapny borrowings

Figure 55. Gross external debt by sectors, in millions of euro

Source: CBK (2015)

| 47


8. Macroeconomic projections for 2015

8.1. Gross Domestic Product

Kosovo’s economy is expected to

accelerate the pace of growth in 2015.

The growth rate of real GDP, according

to the CBK, is expected to be 3.5

percent. This growth is expected to be

generated by domestic demand, while

net exports are expected to continue to

have a negative contribution to the GDP

growth rate (figure 56). Consumption, as

the main component of the domestic

demand, during 2015, is expected to

have major contribution to the economic

growth but with a lower degree of

contribution than in the previous year

(figure 57). The overall consumption

growth is expected to be 2.8 percent,

based on expectations that private

consumption will grow by 2.5 percent

and public consumption will mark a

growth of 4.7 percent.

The main factors expected to affect the

consumption growth during this period

are the increase of the salaries of civil

servants (the increase in wages in April

2014 is expected to have an impact also

in 2015 as the effect is complete for the

whole year), and the growth of remittances and consumer credit growth. It is encouraging that

the growth of remittances up to May 2015 increased by 18.7 percent. Also the new consumer

loans up to June 2015 increased by 9.8 percent. However, due to the forecast of the more

accelerated growth of investments, despite the increased consumption of 2.8 percent, the share of

consumption to GDP from 107.5 percent in the previous year it is expected to decline to 106.8

percent this year.

Investments in 2015 are expected to mark an increase while in the previous year were estimated

to have declined. During 2015, investments are expected to be characterized by a real growth of

6.5 percent and to contribute to the growth of GDP by 1.6 percentage points. Private

investments, which account for about 69.0 percent of total investments, are expected to record a

real growth of 4.5 percent. In the same period, public investments, which have a share of 31.0

percent of total investments, are expected to grow by 11.3 percent. The increased public

investments, in addition to the new projects, are expected to be due to the realization of projects

that were planned but not realized in the prior year.

Also, projects of particular importance, as is the concession of a tourist complex “Brezovica”,

continuation of works on the Pristina-Skopje highway, are expected to affect the growth of

private investments. Private investments are expected to be driven also by the credit activity,

which is expected to accelerate due to declining interest rates and easing credit standards for

3.3

4.4

2.83.4

2.7

3.5

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f

Domestic demand Net expors Real growth

e- CBK estimate, f- CBK forecast

Sourcei: KAS (2013)

Figure 56. Real GDP growth, domestic and external demand, in percent

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f

Private consumption Public consumption

Private investments Public investments

e- CBK estimate, f- CBK forecast

Source: KAS (2013) and CBK for 2014-2015

Figure 57. Real GDP growth and its contributors, in percent

| 48


approving loans by banks. Also FDIs, which until May 2015 amounted to euro 157.7 million from

euro 29.1 million in the same period of the previous year, are expected to contribute to the

increased investments. As a result of acceleration of investment growth is expected to increase

their share to total GDP from 24.9 percent in 2014 to 25.6 percent in 2015.

Net exports of goods and services in 2015 are expected to contribute negatively to GDP growth by

1.1 percentage points. The negative impact of net exports is attributed to the increased domestic

demand, which is expected to contribute to the increase of imports. Within commodities, the

current projections show that exports will grow by 14.3 percent in real terms, while imports by

4.9 percent. The highest level of imports of goods compared to exports will deepen goods trade

deficit in real terms by 3.5 percent. On the other hand, commercial position within the services it

is expected to be positive in 2015 and to grow by 3.0 percent.

8.2. Fiscal sector

In 2015, budget revenues according to

the CBK forecasts are expected to grow

by 6.5 percent, while budget

expenditures are expected to grow by 7.5

percent (figure 58). The primary income

in 2015 is expected to reach euro 1.4

billion or 6.5 percent more than in the

previous year.

As a ratio to GDP, budget revenues are

expected to have a slight increase from

24.4 percent in the previous year to 25.0

percent in 2015. This increase in budget

revenues is expected to be a result of

increased economic activity, but also to the continuation of combating the informal economy.

Border tax revenues are projected to reach about euro 909.9 million or 5.9 percent compared with

the previous year, while local tax revenues are expected to reach euro 336.2 million or 6.9 percent

more compared to last year. Primary budget expenditures in 2015 are expected to reach euro 1.6

billion or 7.5 percent more than in the previous year. As a percentage to GDP, the budgetary

expenditures are expected to increase from 26.7 percent in 2014 to 27.7 percent in 2015.

Current expenditures are expected to reduce their share to total expenditures from 71.8 percent

in 2014 to 70.9 percent in 2015. Wages

and salaries and subsidies and transfers

are expected to increase by 11.4 and 5.0

percent, respectively, while goods and

services are expected to mark a decline

of 4.5 percent. On the other hand, capital

expenditures which are projected to

increase by 11.3 percent, are expected to

increase their share to total

expenditures from 27.4 percent in 2014

to 28.4 percent in 2015.

8.3. Banking sector

In 2015 it is forecasted that the annual

growth rate of lending to the private sector to be 5.2 percent, which is similar to the previous

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Real GDP Deposits growth (right axis)

Figure 59. Deposits of private sector and real GDP

f- forecastSource: CBK (2015)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2,014 2015f

Income Expenditures Primary balance

Figure 58. Budget primary income and expenditures, in millions of euro

f- forecast

Source: MF (2013) and CBK for 2014-2015

| 49


year (figure 59). Besides the easing of the credit standards by banks, as well as the overall

increased demand in the country, another factor of importance that is expected to affect a further

increase in lending was the decline of interest rates on loans which are expected to drive the

growth of loans demand.

CBK forecasts on lending growth are also in line with reports of banks within the bank lending

survey, the results of which suggest that

there will be an acceleration of lending

activity during the next periods.

Deposits of the private sector, in 2015,

are expected to continue the growth

trend that has characterized the recent

years. The deposits growth of the private

sector during 2015 is expected to be

around 4.7 percent compared with 4.0

percent in 2014 (figure 60). The expected

flow of deposits is related to national

disposable income which is expected to

grow by 4.2 percent, in 2015.

8.4. External sector

In 2015, the external sector is expected

to be characterized by almost similar

level of current account deficit and

capital account deficit compared to 2014

(figure 61). The value of the current

account deficit and capital account

deficit is projected to be euro 419.3

million (419.8 million deficit in the

previous year). Also, the balance of the

financial account is expected to be euro -

144.6 million which is almost the same

as in the previous year (euro -145.1

million). The current account deficit and

the capital account deficit is expected to

be equivalent to 7.3 percent of GDP in 2015, which is lower compared to the previous year when

the current account deficit and the capital account deficit was 7.6 percent of GDP.

In 2015, export of goods is expected to reach euro 359.2 million, representing an annual nominal

increase of 12.0 percent compared with the previous year. Forecasts for export growth, in 2015,

mainly are based on expectations for the acceleration of activity in some economic sectors such as

agriculture and manufacturing as well as forecasts for the growth in external demand.

Import of goods is expected to record a value of euro 2.5 billion in 2015, representing an annual

nominal increase of 4.1 percent (figure 62). The increase of the total value of imports is expected

to be mainly driven by increased demand in the country during 2015.

The goods and services deficit is expected to mark a growth of 2.5 percent, which is attributed to

the goods deficit increase of 2.9 percent, while the surplus in services is expected to mark a

growth of 4.5 percent, thus reaching euro 351.3 million.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Real GDP Loans growth (right axis)

Figure 60. Lending to private sector and real GDP

f- forecast Source: CBK (2015)

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Goods and services account Primary income account

Secondary income account Capital and current account

Figure 61. Current account, in millions of euro

f- forecats

Source: CBK (2015)

| 50


In 2015, import and export of services

are expected to grow by about 4.0

percent each, where the higher weight

that total export has in the total trade of

services is expected to affect the growth

of the surplus of the services account.

Import of services is expected to reach

euro 451.6 million in 2015, while export

of services is expected to reach euro

802.9 million. Increased imports of

services in 2015 are expected to be

generated mainly by increased imports of

travel services, transportation and

construction services. Meanwhile, the

growth of services export in 2015 is expected to be generated by increased export of travel

services that primarily represent the cost of immigrants during their stay in Kosovo. The balance

of goods and services is expected to record a trade deficit of euro 1.8 billion in 2015, representing

an annual increase of 2.5 percent.

Balance of secondary income account in 2015 is expected to record a surplus of euro 1.2 billion,

which is 3.7 percent more than the surplus recorded in the previous year. This surplus increase is

mainly attributed to the growth forecasts of remittances for 11.5 percent. On the other hand,

government transfers are expected to decline by 9.3 percent.

Financial account balance is expected to reach a level of euro -144.6 million, or 0.3 percent less

than the balance of this account in the previous year. FDI is expected to remain the main

component of the financial account, which for 2015 is projected to be characterized by an increase

of 61.2 percent. FDI growth is expected to be mainly due to the implementation of projects of

particular importance, as is the concession of a tourist complex "Brezovica" and continuing to

work on the Pristina-Skopje highway.

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Import Export Trade balance

Figure 62. Export and import of goods, in millions of euro

f- forecast

Source: CBK (2015)

| 51


9. Statistical appendix

| 52


| 53


Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators

Description 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (v) 2015 (p)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) /1 4,401.9 4,814.6 5,058.8 5,326.6 5,517.7 5,720.2

Consumption 4,516.5 4,975.5 5,320.4 5,539.4 5,901.8 6,069.7

Investments 1,450.6 1,632.4 1,465.1 1,470.9 1,331.3 1,409.4

Net Exports -1,565.2 -1,793.3 -1,726.7 -1,683.7 -1,715.4 -1,759.0

Real GDP growth /1 3.3 4.4 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.5

Consumption 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.2 6.1 2.8

Investments 10.9 7.9 -12.9 -0.3 -7.6 6.5

Net Exports 7.5 3.7 -12.1 -3.6 5.0 3.5

Current account /2 -515.7 -658.4 -380.2 -339.4 -441.0 -440.5

Goods Imports -2,040.8 -2,363.7 -2,332.0 -2,287.0 -2,372.3 -2,469.4

Goods Exports 299.2 316.5 281.9 291.5 320.8 359.2

Services Import -397.8 -368.9 -317.2 -320.3 -434.5 -451.6

Services Export 574.3 625.2 641.0 632.5 770.6 802.9

Remittances /2 584.3 584.8 605.1 620.8 693.8 773.4

Total banking sector loans to the private sector /2 1,450.8 1,664.1 1,739.5 1,785.7 1,881.3 1,979.6

Total private sector deposits in the banking sector /2 1,713.8 1,908.5 2,115.8 2,285.9 2,377.9 2,490.2

Kosovo's budget/3

Total primary income 1,166.0 1,309.2 1,321.7 1,328.7 1,343.7 1,430.5

Total primary expenditures 1,264.7 1,382.2 1,441.0 1,480.8 1,475.1 1,585.0

Primary deficit -98.7 -73.0 -119.3 -152.1 -131.4 -154.5

Real economic growth/4

Global 5.4 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.8

Euro area 1.9 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 1.3

European developing countries 4.7 5.5 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.9

1/ Kosovo Agency of Statistics for 2010-2013

2/ Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo for 2010-2013

3/ Ministry of Finance for 2010-2013

4/ International Monetary Fund for 2010-2015

(v) Estimates

(f) Forecast

Highlighted parts present estimates and forecasts of the CBK

Change in percent

In millions of euro (nominal value)

Change in percent, in real terms




| 54


Table 2.1. Balance of payments, main components

(In millions of euro)

Goods Services Primary

income

Secondary

income Direct

investment

Portfo lio

investment

Other

investment

Reserve

assets

2005 -228.7 -247.6 -1,078.5 -8.5 139.1 700.3 18.9 53.8 107.6 -17.5 -68.7 32.4 174.8

2006 -205.2 -226.1 -1,173.1 29.0 158.8 759.2 20.8 -35.7 289.2 -65.4 -181.7 -77.9 240.9

2007 -197.5 -214.0 -1,354.4 112.0 186.3 842.0 16.5 5.8 -431.0 34.5 108.0 294.3 203.3

2008 -450.5 -460.9 -1,644.7 146.6 164.0 873.2 10.5 -288.4 -341.5 109.9 -75.1 18.2 162.1

2009 -273.9 -374.2 -1,646.3 227.8 60.9 983.4 100.3 -113.1 -280.9 124.8 137.8 -94.8 160.9

2010 -494.4 -515.7 -1,741.6 176.4 67.0 982.5 21.3 -275.8 -331.1 48.6 -46.7 53.4 218.5

2011 -616.4 -658.4 -2,047.1 256.3 111.3 1,021.1 42.0 -377.5 -378.9 57.8 4.8 -61.2 238.9

2012 -367.2 -380.2 -2,050.1 323.8 153.6 1,192.5 12.9 -141.0 -213.3 185.7 -374.9 261.4 226.2

2013 -304.7 -339.4 -1,995.6 312.2 121.5 1,222.4 34.7 -132.2 -250.2 139.3 14.4 -35.7 172.5

2014 -415.8 -437.0 -2,058.6 335.9 113.8 1,171.9 21.2 -145.0 -123.8 13.3 22.6 -57.0 270.8

Q1 -53.3 -57.9 -311.3 34.3 23.8 195.3 4.7 -10.0 -61.0 18.3 24.3 8.5 43.3

Q2 -133.8 -137.5 -440.4 55.5 18.8 228.6 3.7 -142.3 -42.9 6.5 -147.3 41.5 -8.5

Q3 -184.8 -191.7 -511.9 58.9 1.1 260.2 6.9 0.5 -111.4 -1.9 -28.9 142.6 185.3

2010 Q4 -122.5 -128.5 -478.0 27.3 23.8 298.4 6.0 -124.0 -115.8 25.7 105.3 -139.2 -1.5

Q1 -25.2 -38.5 -380.0 72.3 41.3 227.9 13.3 3.8 -81.7 53.1 -28.6 60.9 29.0

Q2 -158.5 -164.5 -511.4 66.7 28.4 251.7 6.0 -210.7 -98.6 49.7 -133.5 -28.2 -52.2

Q3 -190.4 -196.7 -554.4 60.0 21.2 276.4 6.3 23.8 -105.8 8.8 118.1 2.6 214.2

2011 Q4 -242.3 -258.7 -601.5 57.2 20.4 265.1 16.4 -194.4 -92.9 -53.8 48.9 -96.5 47.9

Q1 -21.8 -20.9 -369.4 43.8 37.4 267.2 -0.9 -13.8 -55.0 81.0 -47.8 8.0 8.0

Q2 -118.4 -120.9 -543.0 75.9 43.9 302.3 2.5 -86.4 -23.5 -37.0 -36.9 11.1 32.0

Q3 -145.2 -143.5 -605.5 122.8 20.3 318.9 -1.7 25.9 -88.5 163.2 -255.0 206.2 171.1

2012 Q4 -81.8 -94.9 -532.2 81.3 51.9 304.1 13.0 -66.7 -46.3 -21.5 -35.1 36.2 15.1

Q1 -2.8 -13.4 -390.7 60.6 42.4 274.3 10.6 10.1 -57.3 53.5 20.1 -6.3 12.9

Q2 -114.3 -117.5 -518.6 79.7 32.5 288.9 3.1 -138.1 -83.8 81.7 -150.6 14.6 -23.8

Q3 -90.1 -99.7 -551.9 124.1 2.1 326.0 9.7 58.1 -56.8 91.8 -46.2 69.3 148.1

2013 Q4 -97.5 -108.8 -534.3 47.8 44.6 333.2 11.4 -62.2 -52.4 -87.7 191.1 -113.3 35.3

Q1 -34.2 -37.6 -391.9 63.3 31.4 259.7 3.4 33.4 -37.5 50.2 26.8 -6.2 67.6

Q2 -158.4 -155.8 -538.5 75.1 31.4 276.1 -2.6 -115.8 -0.2 3.2 -97.1 -21.7 42.6

Q3 -83.8 -88.4 -582.7 138.0 23.5 332.9 4.6 44.8 -67.2 59.3 1.1 51.7 128.6

2014 Q4 -139.4 -155.2 -545.5 59.5 27.5 303.3 15.8 -107.4 -19.0 -99.4 91.8 -80.8 32.0

January 7.0 8.6 -100.4 26.2 11.8 71.0 -1.6 65.5 -17.3 37.4 -34.4 79.8 58.5

February -25.3 -24.6 -125.6 14.5 13.1 73.4 -0.7 -21.0 -13.1 -4.5 52.2 -55.6 4.3

M arch -15.9 -21.6 -165.9 22.5 6.5 115.3 5.7 -11.1 -7.1 17.3 9.0 -30.4 4.8

April -27.4 -27.0 -169.6 32.5 13.3 96.8 -0.5 -23.2 22.8 15.4 -40.0 -21.3 4.3

M ay -74.7 -73.5 -191.8 26.2 9.2 83.0 -1.2 -58.4 -15.2 -7.5 7.0 -42.7 16.3

June -56.3 -55.3 -177.0 16.3 9.0 96.4 -0.9 -34.3 -7.7 -4.7 -64.1 42.2 22.0

July -10.6 -11.9 -187.7 65.0 11.1 99.7 1.3 3.2 -22.0 2.4 33.9 -11.1 13.8

August -15.1 -14.4 -193.3 47.7 7.3 124.0 -0.8 67.3 -21.6 9.6 17.9 61.4 82.5

September -58.0 -62.1 -201.7 25.3 5.1 109.1 4.1 -25.7 -23.6 47.3 -50.7 1.3 32.3

October -47.6 -50.1 -191.5 21.2 13.1 107.1 2.5 -9.3 -14.7 -36.4 38.0 3.7 38.3

November -69.9 -68.8 -169.0 21.9 4.9 73.5 -1.1 -44.7 -16.1 15.2 -53.3 9.5 25.2

2014 December -21.9 -36.4 -185.0 16.4 9.5 122.7 14.4 -53.4 11.8 -78.1 107.0 -94.0 -31.4

Current account

Balance from current and capital account Balance from financial account

DescreptionErrors and

omission

Capital

account

Source: CBK (2015)

| 55


Table 2.2. Goods


Source: CBK (2015)

Tota l goods

of which Re-

exports (credit)

2007 -1,354.4 -1,354.4 164.1 1,518.5 1.3 … … … … … …

2008 -1,644.7 -1,644.7 211.3 1,856.0 1.6 … … … … … …

2009 -1,646.3 -1,646.3 172.5 1,818.8 1.3 … … … … … …

Q1 -311.3 -311.3 54.0 365.3 0.3 … … … … … …

Q2 -751.7 -751.7 144.4 896.1 1.0 … … … … … …

Q3 -1,263.6 -1,263.6 218.8 1,482.4 1.7 … … … … … …

2010 Q4 -1,741.6 -1,741.6 299.2 2,040.8 2.3 … … … … … …

Q1 -380.0 -380.0 74.9 454.9 0.5 … … … … … …

Q2 -891.3 -891.3 165.1 1,056.5 1.2 … … … … … …

Q3 -1,445.7 -1,445.7 244.4 1,690.1 1.9 … … … … … …

2011 Q4 -2,047.1 -2,047.1 316.5 2,363.7 2.4 … … … … … …

Q1 -369.4 -369.4 60.4 429.7 0.4 … … … … … …

Q2 -912.4 -912.4 137.6 1,049.9 0.9 … … … … … …

Q3 -1,517.9 -1,517.9 208.5 1,726.4 1.6 … … … … … …

2012 Q4 -2,050.1 -2,050.1 281.9 2,332.0 2.1 … … … … … …

Q1 -390.7 -390.7 68.5 459.2 0.5 … … … … … …

Q2 -909.3 -909.3 149.3 1,058.6 1.0 … … … … … …

Q3 -1,461.2 -1,461.2 221.3 1,682.5 1.7 … … … … … …

2013 Q4 -1,995.6 -1,995.6 291.5 2,287.0 2.2 … … … … … …

Q1 -391.9 -391.9 66.1 458.0 0.4 … … … … … …

Q2 -930.4 -930.4 141.5 1,071.9 1.1 … … … … … …

Q3 -1,513.1 -1,513.1 238.3 1,751.5 3.0 … … … … … …

2014 Q4 -2,058.6 -2,058.6 324.3 2,382.9 4.7 … … … … … …

January -100.4 -100.4 20.7 121.1 0.1 … … … … … …

February -226.0 -226.0 43.0 269.0 0.3 … … … … … …

M arch -391.9 -391.9 66.1 458.0 0.4 … … … … … …

April -561.5 -561.5 90.7 652.2 0.6 … … … … … …

M ay -753.4 -753.4 114.5 867.9 0.7 … … … … … …

June -930.4 -930.4 141.5 1,071.9 1.1 … … … … … …

July -1,118.1 -1,118.1 176.5 1,294.6 1.6 … … … … … …

August -1,311.5 -1,311.5 209.8 1,521.2 2.3 … … … … … …

September -1,513.1 -1,513.1 238.3 1,751.5 3.0 … … … … … …

October -1,704.6 -1,704.6 267.5 1,972.1 3.3 … … … … … …

November -1,873.6 -1,873.6 297.7 2,171.3 4.0 … … … … … …

2014 December -2,058.6 -2,058.6 324.3 2,382.9 4.7 … … … … … …

De sc ription

General merchandise on a balance of payments basis Net exports of goods under merchanting

(credit)

Nonmonetary gold

Credit Debit Goods acquired

under

merchanting

(negative credit)

Goods sold

under

merchanting

(credit)

Credit Debit

| 56


Table 2.3. Services, net


M anufact

uring

services

on

physical

inputs

owned by

others

M aintena

nce and

repair

services

n.i.e.

Transport TravelConstruct

ion

Insurance

and

pension

services

Financial

services

Charges

for the

use of

intellectua

l property

n.i.e.

Telecomm

unications,

computer,

and

informatio

n services

Other

business

services

Personal,

cultural, and

recreational

services

Government

goods and

services n.i.e.

2007 112.0 3.6 -2.1 -19.2 96.6 -17.3 -8.7 -4.4 -1.7 39.3 -55.3 … 81.2

2008 146.6 1.6 -6.5 -40.0 125.0 3.2 -12.1 0.1 -3.2 36.9 -46.0 … 87.6

2009 227.8 3.7 -9.1 -39.1 195.9 10.7 -9.6 3.5 -3.0 56.8 -61.7 … 79.7

2010 176.4 2.9 -13.4 -44.1 223.0 -20.2 -12.8 3.2 -2.1 45.4 -61.8 … 56.4

2011 256.3 5.2 -17.1 -53.4 235.0 -5.3 -17.1 -0.8 -0.4 76.8 -18.1 … 51.6

2012 323.8 3.5 -25.7 -50.7 309.9 11.0 -4.0 -1.3 -0.2 47.4 3.1 … 30.9

2013 312.2 3.7 -0.2 -51.4 304.2 6.5 -9.4 -0.7 -1.9 32.1 6.0 … 23.2

2014 335.9 3.8 -2.5 -73.0 378.8 4.4 -14.1 -2.2 -1.9 19.5 8.2 1.0 14.1

Q1 34.3 0.5 -2.9 -8.1 41.4 -1.9 -3.3 0.2 -1.7 11.8 -17.1 … 15.4

Q2 55.5 0.7 -3.4 -9.4 49.5 0.0 -3.8 0.0 -0.6 12.8 -6.8 … 16.6

Q3 58.9 1.0 -3.8 -13.1 75.5 -10.2 -0.4 2.2 0.2 11.4 -16.9 … 13.1

2010 Q4 27.3 0.7 -3.4 -13.4 56.7 -8.0 -5.3 0.8 … 9.5 -21.4 … 11.2

Q1 72.3 1.4 -3.5 -9.4 53.2 -3.1 -3.8 -0.3 -0.1 22.9 1.6 … 13.4

Q2 66.7 1.4 -4.2 -14.7 64.7 -3.8 -5.9 0.0 -0.1 18.0 -1.8 … 13.1

Q3 60.0 1.3 -4.3 -15.1 58.1 2.7 -2.5 -0.3 -0.1 18.5 -11.0 … 12.6

2011 Q4 57.2 1.0 -5.1 -14.3 59.0 -1.2 -5.0 -0.2 -0.1 17.4 -6.9 … 12.5

Q1 43.8 0.7 -4.3 -8.7 42.0 -2.8 -5.1 -0.1 -0.2 11.4 2.5 … 8.2

Q2 75.9 0.9 -6.7 -15.1 68.5 3.6 -4.1 -0.2 0.0 11.2 8.9 … 8.9

Q3 122.8 1.0 -6.9 -16.7 126.9 6.4 -2.4 -0.5 0.0 13.5 -5.6 … 7.3

2012 Q4 81.3 0.9 -7.8 -10.2 72.9 3.8 7.6 -0.5 0.0 11.3 -3.1 … 6.4

Q1 60.6 1.0 … -7.5 47.6 0.1 -1.9 -0.2 -0.9 11.6 3.8 … 7.1

Q2 79.7 1.4 … -11.0 68.3 1.6 -0.8 0.2 -0.5 7.3 7.2 … 6.0

Q3 124.1 1.2 … -17.1 118.8 3.3 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4 8.6 5.5 … 6.0

2013 Q4 47.8 0.1 -0.1 -15.7 69.5 1.4 -5.1 -0.4 0.0 4.6 -10.5 … 4.1

Q1 63.3 0.5 -0.4 -10.6 60.8 3.9 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 5.1 6.0 … 3.1

Q2 75.1 0.5 -0.5 -15.8 75.8 -0.2 -2.8 -0.4 … 11.3 2.9 0.4 3.9

Q3 138.0 1.4 -0.8 -20.7 145.8 -0.7 -2.7 -0.4 … 8.4 3.6 0.7 3.6

2014 Q4 59.5 1.4 -0.8 -25.9 96.4 1.3 -4.4 -0.5 -1.6 -5.3 -4.3 -0.1 3.5

January 26.2 0.0 -0.1 -2.6 22.4 2.3 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 1.8 3.6 0.2 0.9

February 14.5 0.3 -0.1 -3.5 14.6 1.3 -1.4 0.0 … 1.2 1.2 -0.1 1.0

M arch 22.5 0.3 -0.2 -4.5 23.9 0.3 -1.6 -0.1 0.0 2.0 1.2 0.0 1.3

April 32.5 0.1 -0.2 -5.1 28.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 3.7 4.6 -0.1 1.3

M ay 26.2 0.0 -0.1 -5.7 23.6 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 … 4.1 3.5 0.2 1.2

June 16.3 0.4 -0.2 -5.0 23.5 0.3 -2.7 -0.1 0.0 3.5 -5.1 0.3 1.4

July 65.0 0.3 -0.1 -6.9 66.9 -1.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.3 1.2

August 47.7 0.4 -0.1 -7.0 49.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 … 2.6 2.6 0.2 1.1

September 25.3 0.8 -0.5 -6.7 29.3 1.3 -2.2 -0.1 … 3.4 -1.2 0.2 1.3

October 21.2 0.3 -0.1 -10.8 31.7 0.6 -1.3 -0.1 … -2.0 1.8 -0.1 1.1

November 21.9 0.4 -0.1 -4.8 26.3 -0.7 -2.4 -0.4 … -2.5 5.1 -0.1 1.2

2014 December 16.4 0.8 -0.5 -10.3 38.3 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.6 -0.8 -11.2 0.0 1.1

D escrept io n

B alance

Source: CBK (2015)

| 57


Table 2.4. Primary Income


Compensation of

employees

Investment

income

Other primary

income

Compensation of

employees

Investment

income

Other primary

income

Compensatio

n of

employees

Investment

income

Other primary

income

2007 186.3 154.9 31.5 … 239.2 155.6 83.6 … 52.9 0.8 52.2 …

2008 164.0 175.4 -11.4 … 233.3 176.2 57.1 … 69.3 0.8 68.5 …

2009 60.9 168.7 -107.8 … 181.7 169.7 12.0 … 120.7 0.9 119.8 …

2010 67.0 171.6 -104.6 … 186.3 176.1 10.1 … 119.2 4.5 114.7 …

2011 111.3 208.2 -96.9 … 239.1 221.3 17.8 … 127.8 13.1 114.7 …

2012 153.6 214.3 -60.6 … 230.0 219.9 10.1 … 76.4 5.6 70.8 …

2013 121.5 218.9 -97.4 … 227.5 223.2 4.3 … 106.0 4.3 101.6 …

2014 113.8 200.4 -85.9 -0.7 215.8 206.5 8.0 1.3 102.0 6.1 93.9 2.0

Q1 23.8 45.6 -21.8 … 48.5 46.5 2.1 … 24.7 0.9 23.8 …

Q2 18.8 41.9 -23.1 … 44.2 42.7 1.4 … 25.4 0.9 24.5 …

Q3 1.1 40.3 -39.2 … 44.6 41.8 2.7 … 43.5 1.5 42.0 …

2010 Q4 23.3 43.9 -20.5 … 49.0 45.1 3.9 … 25.6 1.2 24.4 …

Q1 41.3 50.2 -8.9 … 56.1 52.6 3.5 … 14.8 2.4 12.4 …

Q2 28.4 55.7 -27.3 … 63.2 58.8 4.5 … 34.8 3.0 31.8 …

Q3 21.2 54.2 -33.0 … 62.4 57.5 4.8 … 41.2 3.3 37.8 …

2011 Q4 20.4 48.1 -27.7 … 57.3 52.3 5.0 … 37.0 4.3 32.7 …

Q1 37.4 53.1 -15.7 … 59.3 55.6 3.7 … 21.9 2.5 19.4 …

Q2 43.9 53.6 -9.6 … 57.9 55.2 2.7 … 13.9 1.6 12.4 …

Q3 20.3 53.1 -32.8 … 56.4 53.7 2.7 … 36.1 0.7 35.4 …

2012 Q4 51.9 54.5 -2.5 … 56.4 55.4 1.0 … 4.5 0.9 3.5 …

Q1 42.4 55.4 -13.0 … 57.3 56.0 1.2 … 14.9 0.6 14.2 …

Q2 32.5 52.8 -20.3 … 55.4 53.9 1.5 … 22.9 1.1 21.7 …

Q3 2.1 53.8 -51.8 … 55.3 54.9 0.4 … 53.3 1.1 52.2 …

2013 Q4 44.6 56.9 -12.3 … 59.5 58.4 1.1 … 15.0 1.5 13.5 …

Q1 31.4 46.1 -14.8 … 49.6 48.1 1.5 … 18.2 2.0 16.2 …

Q2 31.4 49.9 -18.6 0.1 53.2 50.8 1.9 0.5 21.8 0.9 20.5 0.4

Q3 23.5 54.2 -30.8 0.1 58.9 55.2 3.2 0.5 35.4 1.0 34.0 0.4

2014 Q4 27.5 50.2 -21.8 -0.9 54.2 52.4 1.5 0.3 26.6 2.2 23.3 1.2

January 11.8 14.9 -3.1 … 15.6 15.2 0.5 … 3.8 0.3 3.6 …

February 13.1 15.9 -2.8 … 16.8 16.3 0.5 … 3.7 0.4 3.3 …

M arch 6.5 15.3 -8.8 … 17.2 16.7 0.5 … 10.6 1.3 9.3 …

April 13.3 16.3 -3.0 0.0 17.1 16.5 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.2 3.5 0.2

M ay 9.2 16.1 -7.0 0.1 17.3 16.4 0.6 0.2 8.1 0.3 7.7 0.1

June 9.0 17.5 -8.6 0.0 18.8 17.9 0.7 0.2 9.8 0.4 9.3 0.1

July 11.1 19.5 -8.5 0.1 21.1 19.9 0.9 0.3 10.0 0.4 9.4 0.2

August 7.3 16.0 -8.7 0.0 17.5 16.3 1.1 0.1 10.3 0.3 9.8 0.2

September 5.1 18.8 -13.7 0.0 20.3 19.1 1.1 0.1 15.2 0.3 14.8 0.1

October 13.1 17.7 -4.6 0.0 18.7 18.0 0.5 0.1 5.6 0.3 5.2 0.1

November 4.9 13.0 -7.4 -0.8 15.1 14.5 0.5 0.1 10.2 1.4 7.8 0.9

2014 December 9.5 19.4 -9.8 -0.1 20.4 19.9 0.5 0.0 10.9 0.4 10.3 0.1

D escrept io n

B alance C redit D ebit

Source: CBK (2015)

| 58


Table 2.5. Secondary income


General

government

Financial

corporations,

nonfinancial

corporations,

households, and

NPISHs

General

government

Financial

corporations,

nonfinancial

corporations,

households, and

NPISHs

General

government

Financial

corporations,

nonfinancial

corporations,

households,

and NPISHs

2007 842.0 245.1 596.9 935.2 251.4 683.8 93.1 6.3 86.8

2008 873.2 223.5 649.7 972.3 223.5 748.8 99.1 … 99.1

2009 983.4 322.9 660.5 1,106.8 322.9 783.9 123.4 … 123.4

2010 982.5 319.5 662.9 1,087.4 319.5 767.9 105.0 … 105.0

2011 1,021.1 322.2 698.9 1,133.6 322.2 811.4 112.5 … 112.5

2012 1,192.5 401.6 791.0 1,296.4 401.6 894.9 103.9 … 103.9

2013 1,222.4 341.9 880.5 1,304.0 341.9 962.0 81.6 … 81.6

2014 1,171.9 291.9 880.0 1,270.3 291.9 978.4 98.4 0.0 98.4

Q1 195.3 65.2 130.1 221.0 65.2 155.8 25.7 … 25.7

Q2 228.6 72.3 156.3 253.3 72.3 181.0 24.7 … 24.7

Q3 260.2 65.7 194.4 286.5 65.7 220.8 26.3 … 26.3

2010 Q4 298.4 116.4 182.0 326.7 116.4 210.3 28.3 … 28.3

Q1 227.9 79.4 148.5 255.1 79.4 175.7 27.2 … 27.2

Q2 251.7 86.6 165.1 280.8 86.6 194.2 29.1 … 29.1

Q3 276.4 81.7 194.7 304.6 81.7 222.9 28.2 … 28.2

2011 Q4 265.1 74.5 190.6 293.0 74.5 218.5 27.9 … 27.9

Q1 267.2 102.1 165.2 293.5 102.1 191.5 26.3 … 26.3

Q2 302.3 118.7 183.6 328.2 118.7 209.5 25.9 … 25.9

Q3 318.9 93.3 225.5 345.2 93.3 251.9 26.4 … 26.4

2012 Q4 304.1 87.5 216.6 329.5 87.5 242.0 25.4 … 25.4

Q1 274.3 90.3 184.1 301.3 90.3 211.0 27.0 … 27.0

Q2 288.9 86.6 202.3 316.3 86.6 229.7 27.4 … 27.4

Q3 326.0 69.9 256.1 353.6 69.9 283.6 27.6 … 27.6

2013 Q4 333.2 122.9 210.3 360.5 122.9 237.7 27.4 … 27.4

Q1 259.7 88.9 170.7 285.8 88.9 196.9 26.2 … 26.2

Q2 276.1 68.5 207.6 302.4 68.5 233.9 26.3 … 26.3

Q3 332.9 74.2 258.7 361.0 74.2 286.8 28.2 … 28.2

2014 Q4 303.3 60.3 243.0 321.0 60.3 260.8 17.8 … 17.8

January 71.0 13.5 57.4 79.4 13.5 65.8 8.4 … 8.4

February 73.4 24.9 48.5 82.3 24.9 57.4 8.9 … 8.9

M arch 115.3 50.5 64.8 124.1 50.5 73.6 8.9 … 8.9

April 96.8 29.6 67.2 106.3 29.6 76.6 9.4 … 9.4

M ay 83.0 14.4 68.5 91.3 14.4 76.9 8.4 … 8.4

June 96.4 24.5 71.9 104.8 24.5 80.4 8.5 … 8.5

July 99.7 21.3 78.4 109.2 21.3 87.9 9.4 … 9.4

August 124.0 16.7 107.3 133.5 16.7 116.8 9.5 … 9.5

September 109.1 36.2 72.9 118.3 36.2 82.2 9.2 … 9.2

October 107.1 19.3 87.7 112.6 19.3 93.3 5.5 … 5.5

November 73.5 12.9 60.6 80.1 12.9 67.2 6.6 … 6.6

2014 December 122.7 28.1 94.6 128.4 28.1 100.3 5.7 … 5.7

D escrept io n

Seco ndary inco me C redit D ebit

Source: CBK (2015)

| 59


Table 2.5.1. Remittances, by channels

(Flow data, end or period, in millions of euro)

Banks ATM Other

2004 357.0 . . .

2005 418.0 . . .

2006 467.1 135.1 184.7 147.3

2007 515.6 137.1 198.7 179.8

2008 608.7 126.3 213.1 269.3

2009 585.7 148.8 213.1 223.8

2010 584.3 141.3 213.1 229.9

2011 584.8 139.7 225.3 219.8

2012 605.6 126.5 218.5 260.6

2013 620.8 158.9 211.4 250.5

2014 693.7 175.3 272.6 245.7

Q1 121.8 32.4 46.3 43.1

Q2 142.2 30.9 53.3 58.0

Q3 174.7 58.0 53.0 63.7

2009 Q4 146.9 27.5 60.5 58.9

Q1 120.7 34.1 46.3 40.3

Q2 145.0 33.4 53.3 58.4

Q3 165.0 43.8 53.0 68.2

2010 Q4 153.6 30.1 60.5 63.0

Q1 125.1 30.3 50.1 44.7

Q2 138.2 25.2 55.1 57.9

Q3 164.9 48.9 55.7 60.3

2011 Q4 156.6 35.2 64.5 56.9

Q1 119.1 23.3 47.1 48.7

Q2 142.4 21.8 55.0 65.6

Q3 175.2 56.3 52.0 66.9

2012 Q4 168.9 25.1 64.5 79.3

Q1 127.8 33.1 45.6 49.1

Q2 144.6 32.9 51.5 60.2

Q3 182.2 60.8 52.5 68.9

2013 Q4 166.2 32.1 61.8 72.3

Q1 130.9 29.9 54.6 46.4

Q2 160.3 35.0 68.4 56.9

Q3 214.4 71.8 65.8 76.9

2014 Q4 188.1 38.7 83.8 65.6

January 46.2 14.0 17.5 14.7

February 37.4 6.6 17.0 13.8

M arch 47.2 9.3 20.1 17.8

April 51.4 10.5 21.7 19.3

M ay 53.0 10.1 24.3 18.6

June 55.9 14.5 22.4 19.0

July 63.2 19.7 19.6 23.9

August 92.0 41.8 20.3 30.0

September 59.2 10.3 25.9 23.0

October 70.4 13.2 32.7 24.5

November 50.2 7.2 24.9 18.2

2014 December 67.5 18.3 26.3 23.0

D escript io nTotal

Source: CBK (2015)

| 60


Table 2.5.2. Remittances, by countries

(In percentage)

D escript io n Germany Switzerland Italy Austri Belgium USA Sweden France Norway Canada UK Denmark Finland Netherlands SloveniaOther

countries

2008 37.7 15.9 13.1 6.2 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.9 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.6

Q1 34.9 21.4 10.5 5.3 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 4.2

Q2 39.4 19.7 11.3 6.1 2.9 2.6 2.9 4.0 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5

Q3 37.4 21.2 9.8 6.0 2.8 2.6 3.5 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.2

2009 Q4 38.1 22.0 9.8 5.5 2.8 2.3 3.2 3.9 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7

Q1 34.8 21.0 8.8 5.7 2.6 3.9 3.1 3.5 2.8 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 3.4 4.4

Q2 34.7 20.7 7.9 3.9 2.9 4.7 3.1 3.6 3.1 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 3.7 5.9

Q3 33.2 21.4 7.0 6.5 2.5 4.8 3.4 4.0 2.5 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 5.6 2.7

2010 Q4 34.1 21.6 7.2 5.5 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.1 2.6 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 4.5 5.3

Q1 32.7 23.7 7.5 5.6 2.8 4.6 3.9 3.8 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 3.9 3.0

Q2 32.8 23.0 7.0 5.5 2.0 4.0 3.1 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 3.9 6.1

Q3 33.8 23.4 6.2 5.5 2.9 2.3 3.6 4.2 2.6 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 3.3 6.7

2011 Q4 33.7 22.1 7.4 5.5 2.7 3.9 3.4 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 4.0 4.9

Q1 30.9 23.7 4.8 6.0 1.1 6.3 3.6 2.8 4.9 0.7 3.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 5.0 5.0

Q2 37.4 26.3 8.4 6.4 6.6 3.9 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.1 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.4 0.8

Q3 34.6 22.6 7.9 5.9 3.2 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.8 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.6 3.7

2012 Q4 34.5 21.0 8.5 6.2 2.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.8 … 3.7 5.9

Q1 33.6 22.5 7.5 5.8 2.7 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.0 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 3.7 4.3

Q2 33.3 25.5 5.9 5.7 2.5 4.6 2.5 1.4 2.3 1.3 4.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 5.3 3.1

Q3 33.6 24.4 6.6 7.8 2.5 4.3 3.5 4.5 2.3 0.4 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 4.9 1.1

2013 Q4 35.3 22.7 10.6 4.6 1.6 4.4 2.1 5.0 2.7 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.5 0.5 4.2

Q1 36.7 21.4 5.9 3.8 2.3 6.0 3.1 4.1 2.3 1.5 3.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 7.0

Q2 36.6 23.7 5.4 4.5 2.1 6.4 2.7 3.2 2.4 1.3 3.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.5 5.6

Q3 35.5 23.9 4.6 3.6 2.1 6.5 3.4 3.5 2.6 1.9 3.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 6.5

2014 Q4 36.8 21.1 3.8 3.1 4.0 6.1 2.4 2.4 5.5 0.7 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 2.2 7.3

Source: CBK (2015)

| 61


Table 2.6. Financial account, net


Equity

and

investmen

t fund

shares

Debt

instrumen

ts

Equity and

investment

fund shares

Debt

securit ies

Other

equity

Currency and

depositsLoans

Insurance,

pension,

and

standardiz

ed

guarantee

schemes

Trade

credit

and

advances

Other accounts

receivable/paya

ble

Special drawing

rights (Net

incurrence of

liabilit ies)

2007 5.8 -431.0 -318.1 -113.0 34.5 57.1 -22.6 108.0 0.0 168.2 -9.4 0.0 -50.8 0.0 0.0 294.3

2008 -288.4 -341.5 -253.5 -88.0 109.9 21.6 88.3 -75.1 0.0 38.4 -47.1 0.0 -66.4 0.0 0.0 18.2

2009 -109.0 -276.9 -253.7 -23.2 124.4 -0.5 124.8 138.3 0.0 171.5 64.8 0.0 -38.6 0.0 -59.5 -94.8

2010 -275.8 -331.1 -296.4 -34.7 48.6 154.6 -106.0 -46.7 0.7 202.0 -82.3 0.0 -167.1 0.0 0.0 53.4

2011 -377.5 -378.9 -329.5 -49.4 57.8 115.7 -57.9 4.8 -0.8 58.6 40.4 0.0 -93.3 0.0 0.0 -61.2

2012 -141.0 -213.3 -186.9 -26.4 185.7 81.3 104.4 -374.9 -0.7 -276.8 5.9 0.0 -100.3 -2.9 0.0 261.4

2013 -132.2 -250.2 -158.1 -92.1 139.3 -82.1 221.4 14.4 1.0 22.0 15.3 0.0 -24.0 0.0 0.0 -35.7

2014 -145.1 -123.9 -90.8 -33.1 13.3 308.2 -294.9 22.6 -0.1 120.3 -58.7 0.0 -36.7 -2.3 0.0 -57.0

Q1 -10.0 -61.0 -48.5 -12.5 18.3 60.0 -41.7 24.3 0.2 9.4 5.8 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 8.5

Q2 -142.3 -42.9 -55.2 12.3 6.5 60.5 -54.1 -147.3 0.2 -42.5 -15.6 0.0 -89.4 0.0 0.0 41.5

Q3 0.5 -111.4 -93.8 -17.5 -1.9 9.1 -11.0 -28.9 0.2 87.8 -40.7 0.0 -76.2 0.0 0.0 142.6

2010 Q4 -124.0 -115.8 -98.8 -17.0 25.7 25.0 0.7 105.3 0.2 147.3 -31.8 0.0 -10.4 0.0 0.0 -139.2

Q1 3.8 -81.7 -71.0 -10.7 53.1 48.4 4.7 -28.6 -0.2 -35.6 -2.1 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 60.9

Q2 -210.7 -98.6 -78.6 -20.0 49.7 0.0 49.7 -133.5 -0.2 -109.1 22.3 0.0 -46.5 0.0 0.0 -28.2

Q3 23.8 -105.8 -104.6 -1.2 8.8 47.4 -38.5 118.1 -0.2 106.8 37.3 0.0 -25.8 0.0 0.0 2.6

2011 Q4 -194.4 -92.9 -75.4 -17.5 -53.8 19.9 -73.7 48.9 -0.2 96.5 -17.0 0.0 -30.4 0.0 0.0 -96.5

Q1 -13.8 -55.0 -40.3 -14.7 81.0 20.0 61.0 -47.8 -0.2 -139.1 45.5 0.0 45.9 0.0 0.0 8.0

Q2 -86.4 -23.5 -18.6 -4.9 -37.0 27.0 -64.0 -36.9 0.0 27.9 3.5 0.0 -63.2 -5.1 0.0 11.1

Q3 25.9 -88.5 -61.1 -27.4 163.2 -0.7 164.0 -255.0 0.0 -168.3 -17.2 0.0 -69.5 0.0 0.0 206.2

2012 Q4 -66.7 -46.3 -66.9 20.7 -21.5 35.0 -56.5 -35.1 -0.5 2.6 -25.9 0.0 -13.5 2.2 0.0 36.2

Q1 10.1 -57.3 -45.6 -11.6 53.5 35.0 18.5 20.1 0.0 -62.6 22.0 0.0 60.9 -0.2 0.0 -6.3

Q2 -138.1 -83.8 -41.6 -42.1 81.7 60.0 21.7 -150.6 1.0 -69.7 -25.6 0.0 -54.2 -2.1 0.0 14.6

Q3 58.1 -56.8 -39.2 -17.6 91.8 15.0 76.8 -46.2 0.0 -28.8 7.3 0.0 -23.5 -1.1 0.0 69.3

2013 Q4 -62.2 -52.4 -31.6 -20.8 -87.7 -192.1 104.4 191.1 0.0 183.0 11.6 0.0 -7.1 3.6 0.0 -113.3

Q1 33.4 -37.5 -37.3 -0.2 50.2 0.0 50.2 26.8 0.0 -17.0 18.4 0.0 27.7 -2.3 0.0 -6.2

Q2 -115.8 -0.2 26.0 -26.2 3.2 70.0 -66.8 -97.1 0.0 -40.8 -13.7 0.0 -44.4 1.8 0.0 -21.7

Q3 44.8 -67.2 -65.1 -2.1 59.3 201.0 -141.7 1.1 -0.1 39.9 -14.1 0.0 -22.0 -2.6 0.0 51.7

2014 Q4 -107.5 -19.1 -14.4 -4.7 -99.4 37.2 -136.6 91.8 0.0 138.2 -49.3 0.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 -80.8

January 65.5 -17.3 -14.6 -2.7 37.4 0.0 37.4 -34.4 0.0 -63.7 11.6 0.0 19.5 -1.9 0.0 79.8

February -21.0 -13.1 -8.7 -4.4 -4.5 0.0 -4.5 52.2 0.0 42.0 0.8 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 -55.6

M arch -11.1 -7.1 -13.9 6.8 17.3 0.0 17.3 9.0 0.0 4.6 6.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.0 -30.4

April -23.2 22.8 28.5 -5.8 15.4 0.0 15.4 -40.0 0.0 -30.5 6.9 0.0 -19.3 2.9 0.0 -21.3

M ay -58.4 -15.2 3.2 -18.4 -7.5 0.0 -7.5 7.0 0.0 26.1 0.8 0.0 -19.2 -0.6 0.0 -42.7

June -34.3 -7.7 -5.7 -2.0 -4.7 70.0 -74.7 -64.1 0.0 -36.4 -21.3 0.0 -5.9 -0.5 0.0 42.2

July 3.2 -22.0 -19.7 -2.3 2.4 125.0 -122.6 33.9 0.0 61.8 -19.4 0.0 -8.6 0.0 0.0 -11.1

August 67.3 -21.6 -23.0 1.5 9.6 0.0 9.6 17.9 0.0 14.8 6.4 0.0 -4.1 0.9 0.0 61.4

September -25.7 -23.6 -22.3 -1.2 47.3 76.0 -28.8 -50.7 0.0 -36.7 -1.1 0.0 -9.3 -3.5 0.0 1.3

October -9.7 -15.0 -10.5 -4.5 -36.4 0.1 -36.5 38.0 0.0 57.0 -15.3 0.0 -2.9 -0.8 0.0 3.7

November -44.4 -15.8 -12.3 -3.5 15.2 0.1 15.1 -53.3 0.0 -49.5 -16.2 0.0 3.6 8.9 0.0 9.5

2014 December -53.4 11.8 8.4 3.4 -78.1 37.0 -115.2 107.0 0.0 130.8 -17.9 0.0 1.4 -7.3 0.0 -94.0

D escrep t ion

Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) (balance from f inancial account)

Direct investment Port folio investment Other investment

Reserve assets

Source: CBK (2015)

| 62


Table 2.7. Financial account, investments in reporting economy


Equity and

investment

fund shares

Debt

instruments

Equity and

investment

fund shares

Debt

securit ies Other equity

Currency and

depositsLoans

Insurance,

pension, and

standardized

guarantee

schemes

Trade credit and

advances

Other accounts

receivable/paya

ble

2007 508.5 9.7 9.7 0.0 34.5 57.1 -22.6 170.0 0.0 164.6 4.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 294.3

2008 231.2 28.4 25.0 3.4 109.9 21.6 88.3 74.7 0.0 62.5 1.4 0.0 10.8 0.0 18.2

2009 230.6 10.5 10.5 0.0 124.8 0.0 124.8 190.1 0.0 195.0 -7.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 -94.8

2010 405.6 37.4 34.7 2.7 48.6 154.6 -106.0 266.2 0.0 242.2 19.2 0.0 4.7 0.0 53.4

2011 83.7 5.5 15.7 -10.2 57.8 115.7 -57.9 81.7 0.0 57.3 24.6 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -61.2

2012 316.6 15.8 15.8 0.0 185.7 81.3 104.4 -146.3 0.0 -179.8 31.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 261.4

2013 217.2 30.0 17.9 12.1 139.3 -82.1 221.4 83.5 0.0 60.5 30.7 0.0 -4.8 -2.8 -35.7

2014 90.4 27.3 26.6 0.8 13.3 308.2 -294.9 106.8 0.0 157.4 -50.6 0.0 1.2 -1.3 -57.0

Q1 90.7 8.5 8.5 0.0 18.3 60.0 -41.7 55.4 0.0 36.4 15.2 0.0 3.8 0.0 8.5

Q2 13.9 5.1 4.6 0.5 6.5 60.5 -54.1 -39.2 0.0 -41.4 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.0 41.5

Q3 235.1 7.7 6.9 0.9 -1.9 9.1 -11.0 86.6 0.0 83.5 2.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 142.6

2010 Q4 66.0 16.1 14.8 1.3 25.7 25.0 0.7 163.3 0.0 163.8 0.6 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -139.2

Q1 73.3 2.8 1.8 1.0 53.1 48.4 4.7 -43.5 0.0 -43.4 1.3 0.0 -1.4 0.0 60.9

Q2 -47.7 -7.8 3.4 -11.2 49.7 0.0 49.7 -61.3 0.0 -83.7 21.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 -28.2

Q3 128.2 5.5 5.5 0.0 8.8 47.4 -38.5 111.2 0.0 109.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6

2011 Q4 -70.1 5.0 5.0 0.0 -53.8 19.9 -73.7 75.3 0.0 75.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -96.5

Q1 -22.1 1.7 1.7 0.0 81.0 20.0 61.0 -112.8 0.0 -119.6 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0

Q2 7.9 6.4 6.4 0.0 -37.0 27.0 -64.0 27.5 0.0 27.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1

Q3 265.4 3.7 3.7 0.0 163.2 -0.7 164.0 -107.7 0.0 -128.6 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 206.2

2012 Q4 65.3 3.9 3.9 0.0 -21.5 35.0 -56.5 46.7 0.0 40.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 36.2

Q1 11.1 3.1 3.1 0.0 53.5 35.0 18.5 -39.1 0.0 -51.6 13.1 0.0 0.6 -1.2 -6.3

Q2 -4.9 5.0 2.6 2.4 81.7 60.0 21.7 -106.1 0.0 -89.7 -10.0 0.0 -5.2 -1.3 14.6

Q3 208.0 13.8 7.7 6.1 91.8 15.0 76.8 33.1 0.0 24.2 12.1 0.0 -1.3 -1.8 69.3

2013 Q4 2.9 8.2 4.6 3.6 -87.7 -192.1 104.4 195.6 0.0 177.7 15.4 0.0 1.1 1.4 -113.3

Q1 58.0 5.2 5.2 0.0 50.2 0.0 50.2 8.7 0.0 -3.9 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 -6.2

Q2 -75.8 -3.8 8.3 -12.1 3.2 70.0 -66.8 -53.5 0.0 -51.2 -4.5 0.0 1.3 0.9 -21.7

Q3 169.0 15.5 6.0 9.5 59.3 201.0 -141.7 42.6 0.0 76.6 -32.8 0.0 2.5 -3.7 51.7

2014 Q4 -60.8 10.4 7.0 3.4 -99.4 37.2 -136.6 108.9 0.0 135.9 -25.3 0.0 -2.7 1.0 -80.8

January 90.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 37.4 0.0 37.4 -27.7 0.0 -40.2 13.3 0.0 -1.0 0.2 79.8

February -18.3 2.0 2.0 0.0 -4.5 0.0 -4.5 39.7 0.0 37.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.9 -55.6

M arch -14.1 2.3 2.3 0.0 17.3 0.0 17.3 -3.2 0.0 -1.1 -1.8 0.0 0.3 -0.6 -30.4

April -28.5 3.6 3.6 0.0 15.4 0.0 15.4 -26.2 0.0 -35.2 7.1 0.0 1.3 0.7 -21.3

M ay -36.1 -9.8 2.3 -12.1 -7.5 0.0 -7.5 23.8 0.0 21.7 2.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -42.7

June -11.2 2.4 2.4 0.0 -4.7 70.0 -74.7 -51.1 0.0 -37.6 -13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 42.2

July 61.6 4.4 0.9 3.5 2.4 125.0 -122.6 65.9 0.0 93.1 -28.3 0.0 1.4 -0.3 -11.1

August 109.5 5.9 2.2 3.7 9.6 0.0 9.6 32.6 0.0 26.0 4.9 0.0 1.1 0.5 61.4

September -2.0 5.2 3.0 2.3 47.3 76.0 -28.8 -55.8 0.0 -42.5 -9.4 0.0 0.0 -3.8 1.3

October 17.5 3.9 2.9 1.0 -36.4 0.1 -36.5 46.3 0.0 58.8 -11.9 0.0 -1.2 0.6 3.7

November -23.6 3.4 2.3 1.1 15.2 0.1 15.1 -51.7 0.0 -51.1 -7.8 0.0 -0.7 7.8 9.5

2014 December -54.7 3.1 1.8 1.3 -78.1 37.0 -115.2 114.4 0.0 128.2 -5.6 0.0 -0.8 -7.4 -94.0

Portfo lio investment Other investment

Reserve assets

D escrep t ion

Net acquisition of financial assets

Direct investment

Source: CBK (2015)

| 63


Table 2.8. Financial account, investments abroad


Equity

and

investmen

t fund

shares

Debt

instrument

s

Equity and

investment

fund shares

Debt

securit ies

Other

equity # # # # # Loans

Insurance,

pension,

and

standardize

d guarantee

schemes

Trade

credit and

advances

Other

accounts

receivable/pa

yable

Special

drawing

rights (Net

incurrence of

liabilit ies)

2007 502.7 440.7 327.8 113.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.9 0.0 -3.6 13.9 0.0 51.7 0.0 0.0

2008 519.6 369.9 278.5 91.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 149.7 0.0 24.1 48.5 0.0 77.2 0.0 0.0

2009 339.7 287.4 264.3 23.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 51.8 0.0 23.5 -72.7 0.0 41.5 0.0 59.5

2010 681.4 368.5 331.1 37.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 312.9 -0.7 40.2 101.5 0.0 171.8 0.0 0.0

2011 461.2 384.4 345.2 39.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.8 0.8 -1.3 -15.8 0.0 93.1 0.0 0.0

2012 457.6 229.1 202.7 26.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 228.5 0.7 97.0 25.4 0.0 100.3 5.1 0.0

2013 349.4 280.2 176.0 104.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.2 -1.0 38.5 15.4 0.0 19.1 -2.8 0.0

2014 235.4 151.3 117.3 33.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.2 0.1 37.1 8.1 0.0 37.9 1.0 0.0

Q1 100.7 69.5 57.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.2 -0.2 27.0 9.4 0.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0

Q2 156.2 48.0 59.8 -11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.2 -0.2 1.1 16.5 0.0 90.7 0.0 0.0

Q3 234.6 119.1 100.7 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 115.5 -0.2 -4.3 43.2 0.0 76.9 0.0 0.0

2010 Q4 190.0 132.0 113.6 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.0 -0.2 16.5 32.4 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0

Q1 69.5 84.4 72.8 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -14.9 0.2 -7.8 3.4 0.0 -10.7 0.0 0.0

Q2 163.0 90.8 82.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.2 0.2 25.4 -1.0 0.0 47.6 0.0 0.0

Q3 104.4 111.3 110.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.9 0.2 2.1 -35.0 0.0 25.8 0.0 0.0

2011 Q4 124.3 97.8 80.3 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.4 0.2 -21.1 16.9 0.0 30.4 0.0 0.0

Q1 -8.3 56.7 42.0 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -65.0 0.2 19.5 -38.7 0.0 -45.9 0.0 0.0

Q2 94.3 29.9 25.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.4 0.0 0.0 -3.9 0.0 63.2 5.1 0.0

Q3 239.6 92.3 64.8 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 147.3 0.0 39.6 38.1 0.0 69.5 0.0 0.0

2012 Q4 132.0 50.2 70.9 -20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 0.5 37.9 29.9 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0

Q1 1.1 60.3 48.7 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -59.2 0.0 10.9 -8.9 0.0 -60.3 -1.0 0.0

Q2 133.2 88.7 44.2 44.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5 -1.0 -20.0 15.6 0.0 49.1 0.9 0.0

Q3 149.9 70.6 46.9 23.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.3 0.0 52.9 4.8 0.0 22.2 -0.6 0.0

2013 Q4 65.2 60.6 36.3 24.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 -5.4 3.8 0.0 8.2 -2.1 0.0

Q1 24.6 42.7 42.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -18.1 0.0 13.1 -6.4 0.0 -27.5 2.7 0.0

Q2 40.0 -3.6 -17.7 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.6 0.0 -10.4 9.2 0.0 45.6 -0.9 0.0

Q3 124.2 82.6 71.1 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.6 0.1 36.7 -18.7 0.0 24.6 -1.1 0.0

2014 Q4 46.7 29.5 21.4 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.0 -2.3 24.0 0.0 -4.8 0.2 0.0

January 24.9 18.2 15.6 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 23.4 1.7 0.0 -20.5 2.0 0.0

February 2.6 15.2 10.8 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.6 0.0 -4.6 -0.3 0.0 -8.5 0.9 0.0

M arch -2.9 9.3 16.2 -6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.3 0.0 -5.7 -7.8 0.0 1.5 -0.2 0.0

April -5.3 -19.1 -24.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 0.0 -4.7 0.2 0.0 20.5 -2.2 0.0

M ay 22.2 5.4 -0.9 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 -4.4 1.4 0.0 19.1 0.7 0.0

June 23.0 10.1 8.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 -1.3 7.6 0.0 6.0 0.7 0.0

July 58.4 26.4 20.6 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.0 0.0 31.2 -8.9 0.0 10.0 -0.4 0.0

August 42.1 27.4 25.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 11.2 -1.5 0.0 5.3 -0.4 0.0

September 23.7 28.8 25.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.1 0.0 -5.8 -8.3 0.0 9.3 -0.4 0.0

October 27.2 18.9 13.4 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 1.8 3.3 0.0 1.8 1.4 0.0

November 20.8 19.3 14.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 -1.6 8.4 0.0 -4.3 -1.0 0.0

2014 December -1.3 -8.7 -6.6 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 -2.5 12.2 0.0 -2.2 -0.2 0.0

D escrep t ion

Net incurrence of liabilities

Direct investment Port folio investment Other investment

Source: CBK (2015)

| 64


Table 3.1. Foreign direct investments, by activity

(In percent)

Description Total

Agricultur

e, hunting,

forestry,

fishing

M ining

and

quarrying

M anufact

uring

Electricity,

gas and

water

supply

Construct

ion

Wholesale

, retail

trade,

repair o f

motor

vehicles

etc

Hotels and

restaurants

Transport,

storage

and

communi

cation

Financial

intermedia

tion

Real

estate,

renting

and

business

activities

Other

services*

Other not

elsewhere

classified

activities

2007 440.7 7.9 41.5 74.8 2.5 5.2 12.7 12.7 129.2 102.0 30.9 4.5 16.9

2008 369.9 8.5 17.4 53.7 16.7 13.5 10.1 2.1 51.0 109.6 62.2 2.1 23.0

2009 295.5 13.1 7.0 57.6 8.7 35.5 16.2 2.4 21.9 75.3 43.9 2.7 11.3

2010 368.5 0.9 17.7 101.1 … 54.2 6.8 … -15.9 39.4 75.5 1.3 87.6

2011 384.4 0.6 -5.2 46.9 0.2 133.1 11.6 0.2 29.0 33.0 60.5 11.3 63.2

2012 229.1 0.3 -25.0 27.4 2.2 31.1 9.3 0.5 32.4 22.4 115.7 1.8 11.0

2013 280.2 0.4 -14.1 11.5 48.8 17.3 14.6 0.8 51.0 4.4 136.1 3.3 6.2

2014 151.2 0.2 4.2 -34.0 13.4 -19.9 8.4 0.4 -9.1 41.9 142.1 2.2 1.4

Q1 69.5 0.2 0.2 11.5 … 2.0 1.2 … -3.2 18.8 17.3 0.3 21.3

Q2 48.0 0.2 2.7 16.4 … -18.3 1.0 … -4.3 10.0 10.8 0.4 29.2

Q3 119.1 0.3 10.6 22.7 … 41.2 3.5 … -4.3 -0.3 19.2 0.7 25.6

2010 Q4 132.0 0.2 4.2 50.5 … 29.3 1.1 … -4.1 10.9 28.3 … 11.6

Q1 84.4 0.1 0.2 9.6 0.0 28.1 2.5 0.0 4.5 8.0 15.4 1.0 15.0

Q2 90.8 0.1 3.0 20.3 0.0 22.4 3.8 0.0 10.4 6.5 11.2 1.8 11.3

Q3 111.3 0.2 -2.7 13.2 0.0 37.9 2.8 0.1 12.7 4.2 18.7 5.9 18.2

2011 Q4 97.8 0.2 -5.6 3.8 0.1 44.8 2.5 0.0 1.4 14.3 15.1 2.6 18.7

Q1 56.7 0.0 -1.6 2.3 … 7.2 0.2 … 2.5 10.8 24.5 … 10.8

Q2 29.9 0.1 -8.0 1.1 … 4.8 1.1 … 7.4 -7.0 30.4 0.0 0.0

Q3 92.3 0.1 -7.1 18.6 1.6 21.2 3.0 0.3 12.3 11.6 29.9 0.7 0.1

2012 Q4 50.2 0.1 -8.4 5.5 0.6 -2.0 4.9 0.2 10.2 7.0 30.9 1.0 0.1

Q1 60.3 0.0 -4.5 0.8 1.3 12.5 0.8 2.4 10.6 6.9 28.9 0.3 0.2

Q2 88.7 0.3 -5.3 7.1 30.0 15.4 2.2 … 13.8 -7.7 32.5 0.5 0.1

Q3 70.6 0.1 -0.9 11.9 7.2 -13.7 6.2 0.5 19.1 0.2 38.5 1.5 0.0

2013 Q4 60.6 0.0 -3.4 -8.3 10.3 3.1 5.5 -2.1 7.5 5.0 36.2 1.0 6.0

Q1 42.7 0.0 -3.1 -6.6 2.2 9.1 4.8 … -2.0 10.5 26.7 0.8 0.2

Q2 -3.6 0.0 -0.6 -22.3 7.0 -24.9 2.4 … -4.1 2.8 34.6 1.2 0.4

Q3 82.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 2.0 10.7 2.7 0.0 4.8 18.1 38.1 1.1 0.3

2014 Q4 29.4 0.1 7.8 -9.7 4.1 -14.8 -1.1 … -7.9 10.5 39.0 0.9 0.5

January 18.2 … -1.0 1.2 … 2.5 0.6 0.5 -0.5 3.2 11.5 0.2 0.0

February 15.2 … -1.0 0.9 0.8 1.8 3.1 0.0 -0.3 3.2 6.6 0.1 0.1

M arch 9.3 … -1.0 -8.7 1.8 4.8 0.6 … -1.2 4.1 8.7 0.1 0.0

April -19.1 0.0 -0.2 2.1 2.5 -25.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 -11.9 12.4 0.2 0.1

M ay 5.4 … -0.3 -14.1 0.1 -1.1 0.5 … -0.3 7.1 13.5 0.1 0.1

June 10.1 … -0.1 -10.3 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 -3.8 7.6 11.7 0.3 0.2

July 26.4 … 0.0 1.5 -0.2 5.8 2.0 … 1.7 4.2 11.1 0.2 0.1

August 27.4 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 8.7 11.8 0.1 0.2

September 28.8 0.0 -0.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 0.2 … 1.6 5.2 15.8 0.2 0.1

October 18.6 … -1.6 1.1 1.3 3.1 0.6 … -1.8 1.4 14.0 0.2 0.3

November 19.6 … -1.6 0.3 0.0 5.0 0.5 … -1.8 4.1 12.6 0.4 …

2014 December -8.7 0.1 11.0 -11.1 2.7 -22.9 -2.3 … -4.3 5.0 12.5 0.3 0.2

Source: CBK (2015)

| 65


Table 3.2. Foreign direct investments, main countries


Austria Germany Slovenia UK Switzerland Turkey Netherlands Albania Un. States France

2007 440.7 35.4 48.1 56.2 116.2 9.7 5.4 41.2 3.4 8.8 8.6

2008 369.9 51.3 44.0 44.3 36.6 32.1 23.8 25.9 21.9 4.8 3.5

2009 295.5 15.5 75.2 50.8 6.2 22.7 14.5 23.1 23.3 11.8 6.0

2010 368.5 21.1 91.5 34.0 38.9 35.1 4.9 17.2 20.3 12.6 3.8

2011 384.4 19.6 66.6 16.2 80.1 30.9 34.7 4.7 11.2 14.3 0.2

2012 229.1 0.4 49.5 9.3 14.3 43.8 65.6 -25.6 4.7 10.8 6.3

2013 280.2 10.7 21.7 7.0 10.7 41.7 88.6 -0.1 19.3 12.7 3.8

2014 151.2 30.3 29.4 -9.4 -39.5 38.2 20.0 -7.8 20.4 14.7 3.3

Q1 69.5 4.1 11.6 18.8 1.9 8.4 1.7 0.2 3.5 3.7 1.1

Q2 48.0 5.6 9.9 2.1 -23.3 6.1 1.1 1.4 9.4 5.6 0.8

Q3 119.1 7.0 14.3 10.3 34.0 14.0 1.2 8.7 5.0 1.2 1.1

2010 Q4 132.0 4.4 55.8 2.8 26.2 6.6 0.8 6.9 2.4 2.1 0.8

Q1 84.4 1.6 21.5 6.3 20.3 7.1 8.5 1.4 2.2 3.3 0.7

Q2 90.8 7.4 10.8 2.8 … 7.8 12.6 4.8 1.4 3.0 …

Q3 111.3 8.9 25.2 5.2 30.2 5.8 16.4 -7.7 2.1 7.4 0.8

2011 Q4 97.8 1.7 9.1 1.9 29.6 10.2 -2.8 6.1 5.5 0.6 -1.3

Q1 56.7 2.3 11.7 2.4 5.8 11.1 4.9 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.3

Q2 29.9 -10.8 8.1 3.0 4.8 9.0 16.9 -6.3 -5.0 3.1 1.8

Q3 92.3 5.6 21.3 5.3 14.5 9.9 19.5 -7.1 5.8 2.3 2.2

2012 Q4 50.2 3.2 8.4 -1.5 -10.8 13.8 24.2 -12.5 3.1 2.7 1.9

Q1 60.3 5.1 7.5 5.0 12.9 11.3 8.9 -5.9 1.5 1.4 0.3

Q2 88.7 3.9 -8.3 3.6 13.0 9.3 42.9 -0.9 9.7 3.8 1.2

Q3 70.6 -1.5 14.3 … -14.4 11.0 23.9 4.3 7.1 4.4 1.7

2013 Q4 60.6 3.2 8.3 -1.5 -0.8 10.1 12.9 2.3 1.0 3.1 0.6

Q1 42.7 4.0 11.0 2.6 2.8 8.8 -8.5 -2.3 5.6 3.0 0.5

Q2 -3.6 9.5 2.2 -12.0 -31.9 6.5 4.8 -11.4 7.2 4.0 0.6

Q3 82.6 8.3 17.7 1.8 7.4 11.9 11.2 -1.6 6.7 4.1 1.2

2014 Q4 29.4 8.5 -1.5 -1.9 -17.8 11.0 8.3 11.6 0.9 3.5 1.0

January 18.2 -0.1 4.7 1.5 1.1 3.6 1.8 -1.8 1.7 0.7 0.3

February 15.2 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.9 2.8 2.3 -2.2 2.0 0.8 0.1

M arch 9.3 2.6 4.2 0.5 0.8 2.5 -9.2 -1.7 1.9 1.6 0.1

April -19.1 1.6 -9.3 0.6 -28.4 4.2 2.7 0.5 2.0 0.9 0.5

M ay 5.4 1.7 6.5 0.6 -1.8 -2.0 2.7 -11.2 3.5 1.1 0.0

June 10.1 6.2 5.0 -13.1 -1.6 4.2 0.2 -1.5 1.6 2.1 0.1

July 26.4 0.2 5.7 0.7 2.3 4.1 4.1 -0.5 4.3 1.3 0.2

August 27.4 3.1 6.7 0.6 2.3 4.5 3.8 -0.5 1.7 1.0 0.2

September 28.8 5.0 5.3 0.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 -0.5 0.6 1.8 0.8

October 18.6 2.6 4.7 -0.4 3.0 2.7 1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6

November 19.6 1.2 3.4 -0.4 2.9 3.7 4.0 -0.5 2.8 0.8 0.0

2014 December -8.7 4.7 -9.5 -1.1 -23.6 4.6 3.0 12.2 -2.6 1.6 0.4

D escript io n Totalof which:

Source: CBK (2015)

| 66


Table 4. External debt, gross position


Source: CBK (2015)

2007 - - - - - - - 520.6 48.6 48.6 - 168.8 141.1 27.7 303.2 520.6

2008 - - - - - - - 736.6 83.2 83.2 - 245.6 194.5 51.1 407.8 736.6

2009 309.3 249.0 - 249.0 60.3 0.8 59.5 882.1 156.7 156.7 - 275.0 221.2 53.8 450.4 1,191.4

2010 325.9 260.0 - 260.0 65.9 1.7 64.2 1,045.6 221.8 221.8 - 308.0 232.7 75.4 515.8 1,371.5

2011 320.0 253.6 - 253.6 66.4 0.7 65.7 1,108.4 196.4 196.4 - 346.6 259.8 86.8 565.4 1,428.4

Q1 312.7 247.4 - 247.4 65.3 1.1 64.2 1,027.9 189.4 189.4 - 264.9 222.0 42.9 573.6 1,340.6

Q2 321.0 253.5 - 253.5 67.5 0.7 66.7 915.9 176.0 176.0 - 149.8 110.9 38.8 590.1 1,236.8

Q3 361.2 294.2 - 294.2 66.9 0.9 66.0 1,172.1 184.1 184.1 - 378.9 340.6 38.3 609.1 1,533.2

2012 Q4 401.4 336.5 - 336.5 65.0 0.4 64.6 1,115.9 175.6 175.6 - 354.4 321.0 33.5 585.9 1,517.3

Q1 398.0 332.8 - 332.8 65.1 0.3 64.8 1,054.9 185.8 185.8 - 272.5 238.3 34.2 596.7 1,452.9

Q2 394.8 331.1 - 331.1 63.8 0.1 63.7 1,146.1 184.3 184.3 - 321.4 277.1 44.3 640.4 1,541.0

Q3 387.8 324.6 - 324.6 63.2 0.3 62.9 1,197.0 206.8 206.8 - 326.2 278.4 47.7 664.0 1,584.8

2013 Q4 383.9 321.8 - 321.8 62.1 0.3 61.9 1,224.3 208.1 208.1 - 329.7 281.1 48.5 686.5 1,608.2

Q1 379.8 317.6 - 317.6 62.2 0.1 62.1 1,217.0 225.2 225.2 - 305.1 249.1 56.0 686.7 1,596.8

Q2 381.8 319.0 - 319.0 62.9 0.2 62.7 1,266.4 229.3 229.3 - 339.4 283.4 55.9 697.8 1,648.3

Q3 383.4 318.1 - 318.1 65.4 0.1 65.2 1,325.6 229.0 229.0 - 385.6 314.3 71.2 711.1 1,709.0

2014 Q4 392.8 326.4 - 326.4 66.3 0.3 66.1 1,344.3 234.2 234.2 - 390.1 294.8 95.3 720.0 1,737.1

Long - termShort - term 1/Long - term Short - termD escrip t ion

P ublic and P ublicly Guaranteed External D ebt P rivate Secto r External D ebt N o t P ublicly GuaranteedT o tal

Eco no my

(Gro ss

External

D ebt)

General Government Central Bank Deposit-Taking Corporat ions,

except the Central Bank

Other Sectors Direct

Investment:

Intercompan

y LendingShort - term Long - term Short - term Long - term

| 67


Table 5.1. ODC balance sheet, assets

(Flow data, end of period, in millions of euro)

2001 December 519.8 265.1 212.8 212.8 . 7.5 25.9 __ __ 25.9 __ __ 4.5 3.9

2002 December 473.7 81.3 292.7 292.7 . … 86.5 __ __ 80.8 5.7 __ 9.5 3.7

2003 December 589.2 106.2 106.2 106.2 . 119.6 232.8 __ 0.2 193.5 39.0 __ 12.3 12.2

2004 December 816.5 116.5 186.0 169.2 16.8 112.3 373.7 __ … 289.9 83.7 __ 15.9 12.2

2005 December 984.4 131.7 221.9 201.0 21.0 82.9 513.9 __ … 387.9 126.0 __ 16.9 17.0

2006 December 1,161.2 141.1 243.3 218.8 24.5 99.4 636.6 __ … 490.5 146.1 __ 23.0 17.9

2007 December 1,435.0 189.0 208.1 173.4 34.7 78.9 892.1 __ 0.2 691.3 200.6 __ 27.2 39.7

2008 December 1,808.3 218.2 283.9 236.3 47.6 39.7 1,183.4 0.6 0.1 901.7 281.0 __ 39.0 43.1

2009 December 2,204.6 322.2 405.6 326.7 78.8 97.0 1,289.0 2.3 0.3 942.9 343.5 __ 43.1 47.7

2010 December 2,455.1 307.0 439.1 367.3 71.8 173.4 1,458.7 9.9 6.3 1,004.1 434.2 2.5 44.0 32.9

2011 December 2,649.7 331.5 329.5 251.8 77.7 202.0 1,698.1 17.3 1.5 1,127.0 510.9 7.3 47.4 41.3

2012 December 2,829.3 425.7 287.9 228.0 59.9 256.6 1,763.4 19.8 1.4 1,169.8 542.6 6.9 57.7 38.1

January 2,812.6 390.7 311.9 237.6 74.3 262.5 1,754.9 19.1 0.8 1,165.1 542.1 6.4 57.2 35.4

February 2,837.8 399.6 297.4 220.8 76.6 282.7 1,765.6 19.1 0.4 1,176.9 540.9 7.0 56.6 35.9

M arch 2,835.7 414.3 270.1 193.1 77.0 275.5 1,782.7 19.9 0.3 1,188.0 545.8 6.7 56.0 37.2

April 2,799.3 394.5 279.3 190.3 89.0 229.5 1,801.6 18.7 0.3 1,203.7 551.0 6.9 56.2 38.2

M ay 2,825.3 379.8 292.9 205.3 87.6 246.7 1,810.0 18.6 0.3 1,209.1 554.0 7.0 57.4 38.5

June 2,787.0 355.4 261.4 175.4 86.0 246.3 1,825.7 19.1 0.3 1,216.1 561.9 6.9 57.6 40.5

July 2,860.1 402.6 294.3 216.3 78.1 249.8 1,816.0 19.3 0.3 1,203.7 565.3 7.0 57.0 40.3

August 2,968.0 455.0 349.3 270.0 79.3 273.8 1,790.1 17.9 0.3 1,193.6 551.5 6.4 56.7 43.0

September 2,935.4 438.3 328.4 228.5 99.8 276.0 1,798.0 18.8 0.3 1,195.1 556.5 6.3 56.3 38.5

October 2,952.0 452.8 333.6 230.0 103.6 271.7 1,798.8 18.6 0.3 1,186.9 566.5 6.4 55.5 39.5

November 2,976.7 468.4 332.0 239.4 92.6 278.1 1,803.2 18.9 0.3 1,193.4 563.9 6.3 55.2 39.8

2013 December 3,059.3 463.3 339.9 258.8 81.0 354.5 1,805.8 20.4 0.2 1,194.5 563.9 6.1 55.5 40.3

January 3,048.5 431.7 383.6 298.3 85.3 355.1 1,794.5 19.1 0.2 1,189.5 559.8 6.0 55.2 28.5

February 3,045.1 398.0 397.2 299.1 98.1 373.2 1,794.3 19.1 0.2 1,190.0 559.3 5.9 54.6 27.9

M arch 3,053.3 367.6 384.8 295.3 89.5 392.7 1,825.9 20.0 0.2 1,214.9 564.8 5.7 54.2 28.1

April 3,038.3 357.4 355.5 267.7 87.7 397.4 1,839.7 18.8 0.2 1,224.4 571.2 5.8 55.8 32.4

M ay 3,041.0 338.6 360.8 277.7 83.1 397.4 1,856.8 19.1 0.2 1,229.1 583.4 5.9 55.3 32.2

June 3,059.5 358.2 318.7 232.7 86.0 405.3 1,889.9 20.2 0.2 1,250.9 593.2 5.9 55.2 32.2

July 3,116.4 391.1 377.2 301.9 75.2 380.9 1,874.3 19.0 0.2 1,241.0 601.5 6.2 55.0 37.8

August 3,160.4 422.9 380.9 304.8 76.0 418.9 1,848.2 19.2 0.2 1,212.2 604.0 6.2 54.5 35.0

September 3,149.5 413.0 385.5 313.1 72.5 410.0 1,855.0 7.8 0.2 1,225.2 609.5 6.4 53.4 32.6

October 3,150.3 414.0 417.6 350.9 66.6 380.6 1,854.0 7.5 0.2 1,236.4 603.1 6.2 53.8 30.3

November 3,156.4 444.0 379.9 325.1 54.7 379.5 1,860.8 7.6 0.2 1,236.1 610.2 6.1 53.4 38.9

2014 December 3,186.6 447.1 390.8 328.0 62.8 383.8 1,882.3 7.1 0.6 1,232.7 635.3 6.0 53.7 28.8

Other non

f inancial

corporat i

ons

House

holdsD escrip t ion

Total assets

Cash and

balances

with CBK

Balances with commercial banks Securit ies Gross

loans and

lease

f inancing

of which in euro: Gross

loans in

non euro

currency

Fixed

assets

Other

assets

In euro

currency

In non

euro

currencie

s

Other

f inancial

corpora

t ions

Public

non

f inanci

al

corpo

rat ion

s

Source: CBK (2015)

| 68


Table 5.2. ODC balance sheet, liabilities

(Flow data, end or period, in millions of euro)

of which:

2001 December 519.8 . 492.3 365.4 126.8 _ 5.0 … 2.0 … 20.4 18.4

2002 December 473.7 . 427.2 295.9 131.3 _ 5.4 … 6.6 1.3 33.2 30.8

2003 December 589.2 1.8 514.0 290.5 223.5 _ 8.9 … 17.5 2.0 45.0 44.1

2004 December 816.5 14.3 694.5 281.0 413.5 _ 1.4 … 27.9 9.3 69.1 57.7

2005 December 984.4 23.0 836.7 296.6 540.1 _ 6.4 … 37.3 7.0 74.0 62.4

2006 December 1,161.2 30.3 924.3 308.9 615.4 _ 4.2 … 92.1 7.0 103.3 78.4

2007 December 1,435.0 25.8 1,143.1 380.7 762.4 _ 2.7 … 103.7 7.0 152.7 114.9

2008 December 1,808.3 34.9 1,444.1 429.8 1,014.2 _ … … 129.8 7.0 192.5 145.9

2009 December 2,204.6 58.5 1,744.8 515.0 1,229.8 _ … … 171.7 24.4 204.6 159.4

2010 December 2,455.1 70.7 1,936.8 670.9 923.2 342.7 23.4 0.1 160.0 33.5 230.5 170.4

2011 December 2,649.7 40.0 2,104.0 699.0 1,056.8 348.2 30.4 0.2 191.3 31.0 252.8 176.6

2012 December 2,829.3 6.0 2,279.1 751.9 1,172.1 355.0 18.9 1.7 221.4 31.0 270.8 200.1

January 2,812.6 4.3 2,265.1 738.9 1,170.9 355.4 19.1 1.6 218.6 31.0 272.6 200.1

February 2,837.8 7.2 2,278.3 744.1 1,178.2 356.0 20.0 1.8 227.4 31.0 271.7 200.1

M arch 2,835.7 4.0 2,269.4 756.0 1,155.6 357.8 19.4 1.6 233.0 31.0 276.9 200.1

April 2,799.3 3.0 2,231.4 756.8 1,095.4 379.2 19.9 1.2 229.2 31.0 283.2 205.1

M ay 2,825.3 10.6 2,247.0 776.6 1,096.2 374.3 17.5 1.7 229.9 31.0 287.2 212.3

June 2,787.0 20.2 2,201.3 745.3 1,086.8 369.2 14.8 1.7 239.4 36.3 272.9 218.3

July 2,860.1 6.9 2,271.2 779.7 1,117.0 374.5 11.2 1.7 237.9 55.3 275.7 219.2

August 2,968.0 6.4 2,370.9 867.8 1,120.1 383.1 11.3 2.0 244.4 56.3 276.6 219.2

September 2,935.4 9.8 2,344.7 826.6 1,134.9 383.2 10.8 1.9 239.2 56.3 272.5 219.2

October 2,952.0 11.5 2,354.6 828.4 1,140.7 385.4 10.7 1.9 240.0 56.3 276.8 220.2

November 2,976.7 15.1 2,359.2 833.1 1,135.5 390.5 10.6 2.0 258.8 56.3 274.7 220.2

2013 December 3,059.3 16.5 2,449.0 900.8 1,144.0 404.2 13.4 2.0 244.3 56.3 277.9 221.2

January 3,048.5 21.3 2,443.4 887.4 1,134.4 421.7 13.2 1.6 231.5 56.4 281.0 221.2

February 3,045.1 21.3 2,433.4 890.7 1,113.8 428.8 13.9 1.5 235.1 56.3 283.4 221.2

M arch 3,053.3 21.6 2,430.8 910.4 1,085.4 435.0 13.4 1.5 241.7 56.3 287.8 221.2

April 3,038.3 23.1 2,425.9 920.0 1,062.9 443.0 13.5 1.2 241.7 57.3 275.5 226.2

M ay 3,041.0 25.7 2,415.1 926.7 1,035.1 453.2 14.4 1.2 244.8 57.3 282.5 226.2

June 3,059.5 29.9 2,421.0 957.8 1,006.6 456.6 17.9 1.2 242.2 57.3 289.9 226.2

July 3,116.4 26.9 2,474.9 1,029.1 975.9 469.9 17.0 1.1 239.4 57.3 299.6 231.2

August 3,160.4 25.3 2,513.6 1,096.6 922.8 494.2 16.7 1.1 237.6 57.3 308.8 231.2

September 3,149.5 22.2 2,518.0 1,100.3 908.8 508.8 16.9 1.5 233.6 47.3 310.0 231.2

October 3,150.3 22.5 2,514.0 1,112.3 880.1 521.6 17.0 1.6 235.2 47.3 312.7 231.2

November 3,156.4 27.2 2,502.7 1,129.9 844.4 528.4 16.4 2.1 243.6 47.3 317.0 231.3

2014 December 3,186.6 32.2 2,537.5 1,198.3 803.9 535.3 14.1 2.9 229.9 47.3 323.1 231.3

D escrip t ion

Total liabilit ies

Balances

from other

banks

Deposits Other

borrowin

gs (incl.

non neg.

CD)

Write -

downs,

provisions

Other

liabilit ies

Subordin

ated debt

Own

resources

Transfera

ble

deposits

Other

deposits:

Saving

deposits

Share

capital

Source: CBK (2015)

| 69


Table 6.1. ODC effective interest rates

(New contracts, unless otherwise indicated)

Up to 1

month

Over 1

month

and up

to 3

months

Over 6

months

and up 1

year

Over

2years

Up to 1

month

Over 1

month

and up

to 3

months

Over 6

months

and up 1

year

2005 December 3.1 0.3 2.1 2.4 3.4 * 2.9 * * 1.7 0.0 1.8 2.2 * 3.3 3.9 4.0 1.7

2006 December 3.1 0.4 2.1 2.9 4.3 * 3.1 * * 1.5 0.0 1.9 2.3 * 3.4 4.2 4.5 1.7

2007 December 4.0 0.5 2.7 2.9 4.4 * 4.3 4.1 * 2.4 0.0 2.6 2.7 * 3.6 4.7 5.3 2.3

2008 December 4.4 0.5 3.1 4.0 5.3 * 3.6 4.9 * 2.9 0.1 3.2 4.6 * 4.5 5.0 3.9 2.7

2009 December 4.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 5.0 * 3.9 4.9 * 2.6 0.3 3.1 3.3 * 4.4 5.0 5.5 2.5

2010 December 3.4 0.6 2.4 3.1 5.0 5.1 * 3.7 * 2.1 0.6 2.6 2.6 3.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 2.2

2011 December 3.6 0.9 2.2 2.9 4.9 5.1 2.6 3.9 5.2 2.2 0.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.2 4.6 5.4 2.1

2012 December 3.7 0.8 * 2.8 * * 2.7 4.0 4.8 2.1 0.5 2.3 2.5 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.1

January 3.6 0.9 1.3 2.8 4.8 * 2.9 * 3.6 2.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 2.8 4.1 4.5 5.2 1.7

February 3.6 0.8 1.8 2.1 3.0 * * 4.0 * 1.9 0.6 2.1 2.4 3.0 4.1 4.6 5.2 1.6

M arch 3.5 1.0 1.8 * 2.1 * * * 5.0 2.0 0.6 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.7 1.7

April 3.4 0.8 0.8 1.6 * 4.9 * * * 2.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.9 4.5 5.0 1.6

M ay 3.5 0.7 * * 4.4 * 2.3 3.7 3.8 2.0 0.6 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.8 4.5 5.0 1.6

June 3.5 0.9 * * 3.6 * * * * 2.0 0.6 2.0 2.7 2.5 3.9 4.4 4.9 1.6

July 3.6 0.7 * 2.5 * * * * * 2.0 0.8 2.3 2.2 2.5 3.7 4.5 5.0 1.6

August 3.4 0.7 * * * * 1.7 * 4.8 2.0 0.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 3.7 4.3 4.6 1.6

September 3.4 0.6 0.6 * * 4.2 * 2.6 * 2.0 0.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.9 1.6

October 3.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 * * 0.0 * * 2.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.3 4.8 1.6

November 3.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 * * * * * 1.8 0.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.1 4.7 1.6

2013 December 2.4 0.5 0.8 * 0.5 * * * * 1.7 0.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.9 3.4 4.0 1.7

January 2.7 0.1 0.8 * 2.4 3.7 * * * * 0.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.8 1.4

February 2.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.5 * * * * * 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.7 * 1.1

M arch 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 * * * * * * 0.2 0.8 * 1.5 1.4 2.8 * 0.8

April 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 * * * * * 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.7

M ay 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 * * 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.7

June 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 * 0.1 0.0 * * 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.5

July 0.7 0.1 0.2 * * * * * 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.7

August 0.9 0.2 * 0.5 * 2.0 … * * 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.5

September 1.0 0.2 * 0.5 0.8 * … * * 0.6 … 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 0.5

October 0.5 0.1 * * 0.9 * 0.1 * * 0.4 … 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 * 0.5

November 0.6 0.2 1.0 * 0.9 * * * 0.7 0.5 0.02 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.6 0.4

2014 December 1.1 0.1 0.2 * * * * * 1.9 0.7 0.01 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 2.0 0.6

Over 6

months

and up 1

year

Over 1

year

and up

2 years

Over

2yearsDescript ion

Deposit

rates

Nonfinancial corporat ions Households

Transfer

able

deposits

Other deposits Saving

deposits

Transfe

rable

deposit

s

Other deposits Saving

deposit

sLess than 250.000 euro M ore than 250.000 euro Up to 1

month

Over 1

month

and up

to 3

months

Over 3

months

and up 6

months

Source: CBK (2015)

| 70


Table 6. 2. ODC effective interest rates

(New contracts, unless otherwise indicated)

Source: CBK (2015)

Cash

over

loans

Other

loans

Cash

over

loans

Other

loans

2005 December 14.5 17.3 13.3 13.3 15.2 14.4 15.1 11.5 … * * … * 11.5 * * *

2006 December 14.7 * 14.5 14.5 13.6 15.2 15.7 12.4 … * * … * 12.4 * 13.4 *

2007 December 14.1 * 13.8 13.8 * 14.6 15.1 13.7 … * * … * 13.7 12.9 12.4 *

2008 December 13.8 * 13.9 13.9 14.2 13.4 15.0 13.5 … * 19.5 … … 13.5 9.8 10.8 8.1

2009 December 14.1 * 14.3 14.3 * * * … * 17.8 … … 13.3 * 10.7 *

2010 December 14.3 16.1 13.9 * 18.7 14.4 12.7 13.3 7.7 * 22.6 6.6 8.6 14.6 * 11.7 10.3

2011 December 13.9 17.1 13.6 * 16.4 13.8 11.8 12.1 6.1 9.9 16.4 6.0 8.6 14.0 14.3 12.0 10.8

2012 December 12.9 15.4 12.0 10.2 15.3 13.7 10.7 11.9 5.9 * 12.5 6.1 8.0 13.1 * 10.8 9.8

January 13.6 12.7 13.7 * 15.5 15.4 10.7 12.6 5.6 * 16.4 6.5 4.8 12.6 11.9 11.2 10.3

February 13.5 14.1 14.0 * 16.7 14.2 9.7 11.6 * * 15.0 6.5 6.7 12.8 * 11.0 9.8

M arch 12.6 15.2 12.3 11.0 16.0 13.8 11.0 12.9 7.3 9.9 15.8 6.2 6.7 12.1 * 11.0 9.5

April 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.5 16.1 14.1 10.5 13.4 7.0 10.3 16.9 6.6 5.8 12.0 13.4 11.3 9.7

M ay 12.3 13.3 13.0 10.2 15.2 13.9 10.7 12.2 7.4 * 15.5 6.9 5.5 11.8 * 11.1 9.6

June 12.0 12.9 11.5 9.4 14.2 13.5 10.3 11.9 6.7 * 13.2 6.8 8.9 12.2 13.6 11.2 9.8

July 12.6 13.0 12.3 * 13.9 13.7 9.3 11.4 3.7 * 14.3 7.4 8.4 12.5 11.2 11.0 9.8

August 12.0 13.8 11.3 10.9 14.3 13.1 10.8 10.7 5.4 11.0 16.6 5.7 5.4 12.4 * 11.0 9.7

September 12.2 13.1 11.9 * 13.8 12.7 10.1 10.8 5.3 * 15.8 6.5 10.1 12.2 * 10.9 9.2

October 11.7 13.6 11.7 10.2 12.5 12.5 10.5 12.7 5.8 * 16.4 6.5 10.1 12.0 9.9 10.7 9.2

November 12.2 13.8 11.3 11.9 14.5 13.5 9.4 11.9 * * 15.9 6.0 9.8 12.5 13.8 10.4 9.5

2013 December 11.1 12.3 10.9 9.5 11.6 12.9 9.4 11.0 6.0 * 14.4 4.6 7.3 11.7 * 10.4 9.0

January 11.7 13.1 11.6 10.5 11.9 13.0 8.8 12.9 5.9 * 14.6 5.0 7.5 11.8 10.9 9.7 9.0

February 11.8 10.1 11.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 8.8 11.0 3.4 * 13.8 5.0 6.3 12.0 11.3 9.9 9.0

M arch 11.2 11.1 10.9 11.8 11.4 12.6 9.8 10.9 6.6 9.8 14.6 3.9 4.3 11.3 * 9.7 9.0

April 10.7 11.7 10.3 9.9 10.3 12.5 9.4 11.0 4.0 10.8 14.0 4.3 4.1 11.2 9.3 9.8 9.2

M ay 10.5 11.9 10.0 10.2 11.1 12.1 9.9 12.0 6.8 3.7 11.8 3.9 4.8 10.7 * 9.4 8.7

June 10.6 12.1 9.9 11.0 10.6 12.2 9.4 11.3 4.2 * 14.3 4.6 3.6 10.9 9.8 9.5 9.1

July 10.8 10.1 10.3 11.4 10.9 11.5 9.6 10.6 6.0 * 13.6 4.0 4.5 10.9 8.9 9.2 9.3

August 10.7 11.4 11.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 9.5 10.2 3.7 * 13.4 4.2 4.0 11.0 * 9.9 8.3

September 10.8 11.8 10.9 10.0 10.6 10.9 9.1 11.2 2.9 * 13.4 3.3 4.0 10.9 9.5 9.6 8.7

October 10.4 12.4 10.8 9.3 9.9 10.8 9.4 11.0 3.1 * 13.8 2.9 4.5 10.4 12.4 9.2 8.6

November 9.9 11.2 10.3 9.1 10.6 10.5 8.9 11.9 * * 13.3 2.7 * 9.9 * 9.1 8.0

2014 December 9.2 10.8 9.8 8.4 9.5 10.2 9.3 11.8 2.2 * 12.9 3.2 2.3 9.1 8.8 8.0 7.8

Investment business loans Other business loans Overdrafts

(outstandin

g amounts)

2/

Credit

lines

(outstand

ing

amounts)

Loans with

favourable

condit ions /4

Overdraft

s

(outstand

ing

amounts)

2/

Loans with

favourable

condit ions /4

Consume

r loans

M ortgage loans / 3

Over 1

year and

up to 5

years

Descript ion

Interest

rate on

loans / 1

Nonfinancial corporat ions (Loans) Households (Loans)

Up to 1

year

Over 1

year and

up to 5

years

Over 5

years

Up to 1

year

Up to 1

year

Over 1

year and

up to 5

years

Over 5

years

| 71


10. References

Announcements and Results of government securities auctions: http://www.bqk-kos.org/?cid=1,163

Bloomberg (2014): Metal Prices database.

CBK (2014):

CBK official statistics, Time series: http://www.bqk-kos.org/?cid=1,124

CNB (2014): Global Economic Outlook

Consumer Price Index, as of June 2014: http://esk.rks-gov.net/publikimet/cat_view/98-cmimet/15-

indeksi-i-cmimeve-te-konsumit-

Euribor (2014): Euribor Historical Rates, as of June 2014:

European Central Bank (2013-2014): Monthly Bulletin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

European Commission (2013 - 2014): EU Candidate and Pre-Accession Countries; Economic

Quarterly 3, Economic and Financial Affairs;

European Commission (2013 - 2014): Eurostat Database;

European Commission: European Economic Forecast; Spring 2014

FAOUN (2014): World Food Prices, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations: as of June

2014: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

IFO (2014): Business Climate Index; IFO Institute for Economic Research

IMF (2014): World Economic Outlook April 2014, International Monetary Fund (IMF):

IMF (2014): World Economic Outlook July 2014, International Monetary Fund (IMF):

IMF (2014): World Economic Outlook: as of June 2014:

Import Price Index, as of June 2014: http://esk.rks-gov.net/publikimet/cat_view/98-cmimet/80-indeksi-

i-cmimeve-te-importit-

KAS (2013-2014): Statistics on external trade: http://ask.rks-gov.net/external-e-trade/publikimet

MNB (2014): Quarterly Report on Inflation; March 2014

Monthly Statistics Bulletin: http://www.bqk-kos.org/?cid=1,129

National accounts: http://ask.rks-gov.net/llogarite-kombetare/ll-kombetare

Producer Price Index, as of June 2014: http://esk.rks-gov.net/publikimet/cat_view/98-cmimet/79-

indeksi-i-cmimeve-te-prodhimit-

Statistics on external trade, as of June 2014: http://esk.rks-gov.net/tregtia-e-jashtme/publikimet

Statistics Report on economic enterprises, as of June 2014: http://esk.rks-gov.net/regjistri-statistikor-

i-bizneseve/publikimet

http://www.euribor-ebf.eu/euribor-org/euribor-rates.html

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/01/pdf/0114.pdf

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